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cybrbeast
Up, then down, then...
Registered: 01/06/03
Posts: 4,777
Loc: event horizon
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If Cycorp is right -> AI Singularity within 10 years
#4095180 - 04/25/05 01:22 PM (18 years, 11 months ago) |
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http://www.cyc.com/ http://www.newscientist.com/channel/info-tech/mg18624961.700 http://crnano.typepad.com/crnblog/science_technology/
"In this week's edition of NewScientist, Doug Lenat of Cycorp, creator of the "Cyc" system, says, "I believe we are heading towards a singularity and we will see it in less than 10 years."
Lenat makes this bold prediction based on the progress his system has made towards achieving human-level common sense. The Cyc system now contains some 3 million "assertions," or statements of fact contained within logical clauses.
Impressive as that is, sheer numbers are not the point. "We are not trying to maximise the number of assertions," Lenat says. Rather, he wants to limit them to the bare minimum that will allow Cyc to collect data on its own. He says Cyc is getting close to achieving that number, and it is already advanced enough to query each input itself, asking the human operator to clarify exactly what is meant.
Sometime this year it will be let loose onto the web, allowing millions of people to contribute to its fund of knowledge by submitting questions to Cyc through a web page and correcting it if it gets the answers wrong. "We're very close to a system that will allow the average person to enter knowledge," Lenat says. He envisages Cyc eventually being connected to webcams and other sensors monitoring environments around the globe, building its knowledge of the world more or less by itself." ----
Very interesting that there are AI scientists who believe there will be a singularity within 10 years. I find it a bit hard to believe but maybe they are right. Interesting times ahead
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trendal
J♠
Registered: 04/17/01
Posts: 20,815
Loc: Ontario, Canada
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Re: If Cycorp is right -> AI Singularity within 10 years [Re: cybrbeast]
#4095333 - 04/25/05 02:02 PM (18 years, 11 months ago) |
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I sure as hell hope we get enough people off this planet before nanotech/molecular manufacturing is invented. Such technology could be truly awesome in its power to destroy life on this planet.
If not used wisely.
And we are not wise.
--------------------
Once, men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free. But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.
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DieCommie
Registered: 12/11/03
Posts: 29,258
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Re: If Cycorp is right -> AI Singularity within 10 years [Re: trendal]
#4096559 - 04/25/05 06:40 PM (18 years, 11 months ago) |
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Quote:
trendal said: And we are not wise.
We have avoided thermonuclear war so far.
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Drink_Punk_Soda
Now with ExtraVaganza!?
Registered: 06/14/02
Posts: 1,677
Loc: Nowhere fast
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Re: If Cycorp is right -> AI Singularity within 10 years [Re: DieCommie]
#4096632 - 04/25/05 07:05 PM (18 years, 11 months ago) |
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Quote:
DieCommie said: so far.
-------------------- Kumbayah my lord, Kumbayah...
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DieCommie
Registered: 12/11/03
Posts: 29,258
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Re: If Cycorp is right -> AI Singularity within 10 years [Re: Drink_Punk_Soda]
#4096635 - 04/25/05 07:06 PM (18 years, 11 months ago) |
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Quote:
Drink_Punk_Soda said:
Quote:
DieCommie said: so far.
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scribble
Stranger
Registered: 04/05/05
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Re: If Cycorp is right -> AI Singularity within 10 years [Re: Drink_Punk_Soda]
#4096652 - 04/25/05 07:11 PM (18 years, 11 months ago) |
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Quote:
"We're very close to a system that will allow the average person to enter knowledge,"
That is a horrible thing!
-------------------- Mahayana Buddhist tradition tells how Buddha lived on one hemp seed a day. This was enough to sustain him during the six steps of asceticism leading to his Enlightenment. In recent centuries, higher doses have been favoured.
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Ythan
ᕕ( ᐛ )ᕗ
Registered: 08/08/97
Posts: 18,817
Loc: NY/MA/VT Borderlands
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Re: If Cycorp is right -> AI Singularity within 10 years [Re: cybrbeast]
#4097243 - 04/25/05 09:14 PM (18 years, 11 months ago) |
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I read an article about this on some other site. It's fascinating but I think their prediction is very optimistic. I love computers and I have lots of faith in technology but I think it will be at least 50 years before AI can pass the turing test, let alone reach a singularity. A lot of work and money has been poured into AI since the 60s but I'd say we still aren't even half way there. Still, I'm equal parts scared and excited about what will happen once humans can design, though AI, technology which is so complex we can't even understand it. I expect I'll be dust long before then though, so I'm not too worried.
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MarioNett
Stranger
Registered: 07/21/03
Posts: 354
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Re: If Cycorp is right -> AI Singularity within 10 years [Re: Ythan]
#4097478 - 04/25/05 10:17 PM (18 years, 11 months ago) |
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pnutbot is gonna get schooled.
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automan
blasted chipmunk
Registered: 09/18/03
Posts: 8,272
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Re: If Cycorp is right -> AI Singularity within 10 years [Re: MarioNett]
#4097588 - 04/25/05 10:45 PM (18 years, 11 months ago) |
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Quote:
supercollider said: pnutbot is gonna get schooled.
hahahaha
-------------------- No, no, you're not thinking, you're just being logical. ~ Niels Bohr
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HD590
Disengage
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Re: If Cycorp is right -> AI Singularity within 10 years [Re: automan]
#4097697 - 04/25/05 11:23 PM (18 years, 11 months ago) |
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Jim
Registered: 04/07/04
Posts: 20,922
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Re: If Cycorp is right -> AI Singularity within 10 years [Re: cybrbeast]
#4099262 - 04/26/05 02:14 PM (18 years, 10 months ago) |
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2012. or 8/3/06-the destruction of Jerusalem.
-------------------- Use the Fucking Reply To Feature You Lazy Pieces of Shit! afoaf said: Jim, if you were in my city, I would let you fuck my wife.
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Madtowntripper
Sun-Beams out of Cucumbers
Registered: 03/06/03
Posts: 21,287
Loc: The Ocean of Notions
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Re: If Cycorp is right -> AI Singularity within 10 years [Re: Jim]
#4099740 - 04/26/05 04:46 PM (18 years, 10 months ago) |
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8-3-06. Thats my birthday next year....
When the only destruction happening that day is of my birthday cake, I'll be sure to send happy thoughts to all the disapointed conspiracy theorists...
-------------------- After one comes, through contact with it's administrators, no longer to cherish greatly the law as a remedy in abuses, then the bottle becomes a sovereign means of direct action. If you cannot throw it at least you can always drink out of it. - Ernest Hemingway If it is life that you feel you are missing I can tell you where to find it. In the law courts, in business, in government. There is nothing occurring in the streets. Nothing but a dumbshow composed of the helpless and the impotent. -Cormac MacCarthy He who learns must suffer. And even in our sleep pain that cannot forget falls drop by drop upon the heart, and in our own despair, against our will, comes wisdom to us by the awful grace of God. - Aeschylus
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EvilEwok
Stranger
Registered: 10/09/03
Posts: 574
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Re: If Cycorp is right -> AI Singularity within 10 years [Re: Madtowntripper]
#4101590 - 04/27/05 02:13 AM (18 years, 10 months ago) |
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Man it's beginning to look more and more like the future with every passing day.
I hope their prediction is right, I want to see some truly crazy shit (i.e. technology we can't comprehend) in my lifetime.
-------------------- Now go Home.
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trendal
J♠
Registered: 04/17/01
Posts: 20,815
Loc: Ontario, Canada
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Re: If Cycorp is right -> AI Singularity within 10 years [Re: EvilEwok]
#4101940 - 04/27/05 07:54 AM (18 years, 10 months ago) |
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You and me both!
I'm still waiting for my implantable math-coprocessor
--------------------
Once, men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free. But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.
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freddurgan
Techgnostic
Registered: 01/11/04
Posts: 3,648
Last seen: 11 years, 9 months
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Re: If Cycorp is right -> AI Singularity within 10 years [Re: trendal]
#4103018 - 04/27/05 02:22 PM (18 years, 10 months ago) |
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Quote:
trendal said: You and me both!
I'm still waiting for my implantable math-coprocessor
I'm pretty sure that would kick ass big time. So much TIME could be saved in college. Get right into the curriculum. No more of this life shatteringly painful math core.
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debianlinux
Myconerd - DBK
Registered: 12/09/02
Posts: 8,334
Loc: Over There
Last seen: 8 months, 29 days
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Re: If Cycorp is right -> AI Singularity within 10 years [Re: freddurgan]
#4103497 - 04/27/05 04:05 PM (18 years, 10 months ago) |
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just imagine;
your co-proc fails and you either entirely miscalculate everything which would quickly become fatal or you entirely lose the ability to calculate at all which, too, would quickly become fatal.
this is, of course, assuming a "born with" type of dependence on said processor.
Me? I'm looking for the skin and bone grafts of organic armor via breaking spider-web synthesis techs.
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freddurgan
Techgnostic
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Re: If Cycorp is right -> AI Singularity within 10 years [Re: debianlinux]
#4107294 - 04/28/05 02:23 PM (18 years, 10 months ago) |
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I don't even know what I'm looking for. I'm looking mainly for a transistor based brain Neurons are too slow. I want my brain to be rebuilt using modern technology and turn into an unimaginable intelligence, capable of anything.
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chunder
marker
Registered: 08/11/02
Posts: 966
Loc: The City
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Re: If Cycorp is right -> AI Singularity within 10 years [Re: freddurgan]
#4109417 - 04/29/05 12:15 AM (18 years, 10 months ago) |
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Your brain is already using modern technology to manifest as an unimaginable intelligence, capable of anything! Hell Yes!!
--------------------
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Diploid
Cuban
Registered: 01/09/03
Posts: 19,274
Loc: Rabbit Hole
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Re: If Cycorp is right -> AI Singularity within 10 years [Re: cybrbeast]
#4110337 - 04/29/05 09:28 AM (18 years, 10 months ago) |
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Cyc sounds a lot like a Wiki, only interactive.
-------------------- Republican Values: 1) You can't get married to your spouse who is the same sex as you. 2) You can't have an abortion no matter how much you don't want a child. 3) You can't have a certain plant in your possession or you'll get locked up with a rapist and a murderer. 4) We need a smaller, less-intrusive government.
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ChuangTzu
starvingphysicist
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Re: If Cycorp is right -> AI Singularity within 10 years [Re: trendal]
#4110720 - 04/29/05 11:11 AM (18 years, 10 months ago) |
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Quote:
trendal said: I sure as hell hope we get enough people off this planet before nanotech/molecular manufacturing is invented. Such technology could be truly awesome in its power to destroy life on this planet.
I'm just curious as to in what ways you see nanotechnology as being a threat to life on Earth....
I can think of a few oft-toted scenarios, but none of them really seem viable to me.
I don't mean to hijack this thread though, so I'll start another one.
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