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OfflineGazzBut
Refraction

Registered: 10/15/02
Posts: 4,770
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Last seen: 1 month, 4 days
Global Warming: The Final Proof?
    #3802733 - 02/19/05 09:38 AM (12 years, 5 months ago)

The Final Proof

The final proof: global warming is a man-made disaster
By Steve Connor, Science Editor in Washington
19 February 2005


Scientists have found the first unequivocal link between man-made greenhouse gases and a dramatic heating of the Earth's oceans. The researchers - many funded by the US government - have seen what they describe as a "stunning" correlation between a rise in ocean temperature over the past 40 years and pollution of the atmosphere.

The study destroys a central argument of global warming sceptics within the Bush administration - that climate change could be a natural phenomenon. It should convince George Bush to drop his objections to the Kyoto treaty on climate change, the scientists say.

Tim Barnett, a marine physicist at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in San Diego and a leading member of the team, said: "We've got a serious problem. The debate is no longer: 'Is there a global warming signal?' The debate now is what are we going to do about it?"

The findings are crucial because much of the evidence of a warmer world has until now been from air temperatures, but it is the oceans that are the driving force behind the Earth's climate. Dr Barnett said: "Over the past 40 years there has been considerable warming of the planetary system and approximately 90 per cent of that warming has gone directly into the oceans."

He told the American Association for the Advancement of Science in Washington: "We defined a 'fingerprint' of ocean warming. Each of the oceans warmed differently at different depths and constitutes a fingerprint which you can look for. We had several computer simulations, for instance one for natural variability: could the climate system just do this on its own? The answer was no.

"We looked at the possibility that solar changes or volcanic effects could have caused the warming - not a chance. What just absolutely nailed it was greenhouse warming."

America produces a quarter of the world's greenhouse gases, yet under President Bush it is one of the few developed nations not to have signed the Kyoto treaty to limit emissions. The President's advisers have argued that the science of global warming is full of uncertainties and change might be a natural phenomenon.

Dr Barnett said that position was untenable because it was now clear from the latest study, which is yet to be published, that man-made greenhouse gases had caused vast amounts of heat to be soaked up by the oceans. "It's a good time for nations that are not part of Kyoto to re-evaluate their positions and see if it would be to their advantage to join," he said.

The study involved scientists from the US Department of Energy, the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, as well as the Met Office's Hadley Centre.

They analysed more than 7 million recordings of ocean temperature from around the world, along with about 2 million readings of sea salinity, and compared the rise in temperatures at different depths to predictions made by two computer simulations of global warming.

"Two models, one from here and one from England, got the observed warming almost exactly. In fact we were stunned by the degree of similarity," Dr Barnett said. "The models are right. So when a politician stands up and says 'the uncertainty in all these simulations start to question whether we can believe in these models', that argument is no longer tenable." Typical ocean temperatures have increased since 1960 by between 0.5C and 1C, depending largely on depth. Dr Barnett said: "The real key is the amount of energy that has gone into the oceans. If we could mine the energy that has gone in over the past 40 years we could run the state of California for 200,000 years... It's come from greenhouse warming."

Because the global climate is largely driven by the heat locked up in the oceans, a rise in sea temperatures could have devastating effects for many parts of the world.

Ruth Curry, from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, said that warming could alter important warm-water currents such as the Gulf Stream, as melting glaciers poured massive volumes of fresh water into the North Atlantic. "These changes are happening and they are expected to amplify. It's a certainty that these changes will put serious strains on the ecosystems of the planet," Dr Curry said.
19 February 2005 14:46


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Always Smi2le


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InvisibleGijith
Daisy Chain Eater

Registered: 12/04/03
Posts: 2,400
Loc: New York
Re: Global Warming: The Final Proof? [Re: GazzBut]
    #3802823 - 02/19/05 11:10 AM (12 years, 5 months ago)

I'm glad you were smart enough to add that '?'
Because the answer is no.
And if anyone thinks the publishing of this study is will make the White House flinch, they'd better think again.

All the same, I applaud this research. I'm currently assisting a doc who's doing something very similar; studying salinity data off the Canadian coast... As I've said before, I think scientists making statements about proof tend to hurt the cause more than help. Almost all the researchers I've met who deal with things like this are very respectable people. And I don't think they would consciously mislead the public... Maybe they just believe it so much it becomes 'proof' in their minds. Some of these guys pour decades of their lives into a single study. Maybe they want those years to have some immediate and very significant meaninig...? I don't know. It's just something I'm noticing more and more where I work right now.


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what's with neocons and the word 'ilk'?


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Offlinelonestar2004
Live to party,work to affordit.
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Re: Global Warming: The Final Proof? [Re: GazzBut]
    #3802837 - 02/19/05 11:19 AM (12 years, 5 months ago)

i blame the sun... its just to fucking hot!


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America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure"

We have "reckless fiscal policies"

America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership.

Americans deserve better

Barack Obama


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Offlineexclusive58
illegal alien

Registered: 04/16/04
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Re: Global Warming: The Final Proof? [Re: lonestar2004]
    #3802906 - 02/19/05 12:20 PM (12 years, 5 months ago)

I don't get it, if this is the first study that suppositively prooves that global-warming is man made, why do they call it the "final proof", instead of like "first official proof" or something. I hope they don't imply by "final" that its the last proof!


Anyways, i guess it could be interesting to find proofs that global warming is man-made just to try to convince the politicians to wake up and do sumfin about it.
Nevertheless to wait for the direct scientifically backep-up link between the two before doing anything is plain stupid. Climate change is obvious, trees are dying, the is not nutritious enough to give life, animal species are disappearing.

At this point, not acknowledging that global warming is our fault is just like seating in your house that is burning down and saying "i'm not the one that started the fire, i'm not going to put it out".


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OfflinePhred
Fred's son
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Re: Global Warming: The Final Proof? [Re: exclusive58]
    #3803192 - 02/19/05 02:22 PM (12 years, 5 months ago)

This latest report is no more"proof" than any previous data.

And no, it is not "obvious" at all that man's activities are warming the planet.

Apart from the various links in previous threads here (debunking the "hockey stick" graph, demonstration of conflicting measurements through satellite measurements and more), Michael Crichton has an excellent lecture on this topic. It's too long to cut and paste, but it is worthwhile reading for anyone who is actually interested in the "science" behind this debate.

If you've already convinced yourself that human activity is warming the planet, don't bother clicking the link.

http://www.crichton-official.com/speeches/speeches_quote04.html



Phred


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Offlineshroommachine
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Re: Global Warming: The Final Proof? [Re: GazzBut]
    #3803214 - 02/19/05 02:29 PM (12 years, 5 months ago)

just because 2 things happen at the same time dosen't mean they are related.


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And I said, I don't care if they lay me off either, because I told, I told Bill that if they move my desk one more time, then, then I'm, I'm quitting, I'm going to quit. And, and I told Don too, because they've moved my desk ...four times already this year and I used to be over by the window and I could see the squirrels, and they were merry, but then, they switched from the Swingline to the Boston stapler, but I kept my Swingline stapler because it didn't bind up as much and I kept the staples for the Swingline stapler and its not okay because if they take my stapler then I'll set the building on fire.


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Offlineshroommachine
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Re: Global Warming: The Final Proof? [Re: GazzBut]
    #3803227 - 02/19/05 02:35 PM (12 years, 5 months ago)

BTW, If Global Warming does exist, the only real solution is......






HEMP


Read "the emperor wears no clothes" by Jack Herer


Hemp can be used to make fuels. Fuel made from hemp, when burned, releases carbon into the atmosphere, but the carbon it releases was obtained from the atmosphere while it was growing, so no carbon has been added to the carbon cycle.


--------------------
And I said, I don't care if they lay me off either, because I told, I told Bill that if they move my desk one more time, then, then I'm, I'm quitting, I'm going to quit. And, and I told Don too, because they've moved my desk ...four times already this year and I used to be over by the window and I could see the squirrels, and they were merry, but then, they switched from the Swingline to the Boston stapler, but I kept my Swingline stapler because it didn't bind up as much and I kept the staples for the Swingline stapler and its not okay because if they take my stapler then I'll set the building on fire.


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Offlineexclusive58
illegal alien

Registered: 04/16/04
Posts: 2,146
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Re: Global Warming: The Final Proof? [Re: Phred]
    #3803463 - 02/19/05 04:03 PM (12 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

Phred said:
And no, it is not "obvious" at all that man's activities are warming the planet.





I never said that, i said that its "obvious" that the climate is changing at a fast rate, then its up to you to decide if this change is caused by man. To me, it seems like its an "evidence", but its fine with me if you're waiting for scientific data that prooves the link between man and climate change to make up your mind. The only problem is that by then it might be too late to do anything, and you'll just end up regretting not having payed attention early enough.


Edited by exclusive58 (02/19/05 04:13 PM)


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OfflineGazzBut
Refraction

Registered: 10/15/02
Posts: 4,770
Loc: London UK
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Re: Global Warming: The Final Proof? [Re: Phred]
    #3803811 - 02/19/05 05:48 PM (12 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

This latest report is no more"proof" than any previous data.




Pinky hath spoken...

While some of the more gullible members of this board may take your pronouncements as fact Id prefer a little more substance.

Quote:

Michael Crichton has an excellent lecture on this topic. It's too long to cut and paste, but it is worthwhile reading for anyone who is actually interested in the "science" behind this debate.





Michael Crichton is a novelist not a scientist!! Come on Pinky, you criticise people for using Michael Moore to backup their beliefs and you take the words of a novelist over respected scientists and studies involving years of research and massive amounts of data.

Quote:

If you've already convinced yourself that human activity is warming the planet, don't bother clicking the link.





But if you have made up your mind that human activity isnt warming the planet click away to find the opinions of a great storyteller....


--------------------
Always Smi2le


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OfflineGazzBut
Refraction

Registered: 10/15/02
Posts: 4,770
Loc: London UK
Last seen: 1 month, 4 days
Re: Global Warming: The Final Proof? [Re: shroommachine]
    #3803819 - 02/19/05 05:51 PM (12 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

just because 2 things happen at the same time dosen't mean they are related.




Is this your critique of the latest research or just a knee jerk statement you have just spewed out without any real conscious thought on your part?

Just checkin...  :smile:


--------------------
Always Smi2le


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OfflineGazzBut
Refraction

Registered: 10/15/02
Posts: 4,770
Loc: London UK
Last seen: 1 month, 4 days
Re: Global Warming: The Final Proof? [Re: Phred]
    #3803844 - 02/19/05 05:58 PM (12 years, 5 months ago)



--------------------
Always Smi2le


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OfflineGazzBut
Refraction

Registered: 10/15/02
Posts: 4,770
Loc: London UK
Last seen: 1 month, 4 days
Re: Global Warming: The Final Proof? [Re: Phred]
    #3803879 - 02/19/05 06:14 PM (12 years, 5 months ago)



--------------------
Always Smi2le


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InvisibleinfidelGOD
illusion

Registered: 04/18/02
Posts: 3,040
Loc: there
Re: Global Warming: The Final Proof? [Re: Phred]
    #3803886 - 02/19/05 06:17 PM (12 years, 5 months ago)

from Crichton's lecture:

"Let's think back to people in 1900 in, say, New York. If they worried about people in 2000, what would they worry about? Probably: Where would people get enough horses? And what would they do about all the horseshit? Horse pollution was bad in 1900, think how much worse it would be a century later, with so many more people riding horses?"



HAHAHAHA michael crichton just convinced me not to worry about global warming!

"And what would they do about all the horseshit?"
indeed

:lol:


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OfflinePhred
Fred's son
Male

Registered: 10/19/00
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Re: Global Warming: The Final Proof? [Re: GazzBut]
    #3803889 - 02/19/05 06:17 PM (12 years, 5 months ago)

What I said is absolutely correct. These new measurements and computer simulations aren't proof. If you had bothered to read the very article you'd posted, you'd note that the paper hasn't even been published yet, much less peer-reviewed. So far it's just a couple of researchers tooting their own horn.

Further, if you had bothered to actually read the article you posted, you'd see that they are claiming causality with no proof of it. As was pointed out already, the fact that two things occur simultaneously does not mean one caused the other.

Moving on to Crichton...

Crichton is in fact a scientist. He is a medical doctor. And -- as I knew would be the case -- you didnt take the time to read the link I posted. The "rebuttal" you posted has nothing to do with Crichton's lecture. Everything -- every single thing -- Crichton brings up in his lecture is verifiable. This is completely the opposite of Michael Moore's chicanery, which doesn't hold up to even casual scrutiny.

I'd ask you to read Crichton's lecture, then cut and paste the parts of it you have found to be untrue, but I know it'd be a waste of breath. You'll never read it because you just know that mankind's activities are causing global warming.

You are of course free to continue to believe that. Your belief can't harm me in any way.



Phred


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OfflinePhred
Fred's son
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Re: Global Warming: The Final Proof? [Re: GazzBut]
    #3803897 - 02/19/05 06:21 PM (12 years, 5 months ago)

In response to your second link, this commentor beat me to it --

"This guy Farrell is a newly minted (2000) Phd in Political Science! From the tone of his condescending skewering of Crichton you'd think he was a top rank scientist at the National Academy of Science for cryin' out loud.

If you examine what Farrell's said, he offers no real counter-argument to Crichton, and he establishes no facts. Basically all he says is that Bjorn Lomborg thinks global warming is real. Hate to clue Farrell in, but Crichton believes it's real too. Crichton admits that the average temperature seems to have risen .3 C in the last century. He simply disputes whether it has been well established that the rise is outside the normal variation of earth temperatures."

And another commentor brings up the same thing I've posted here in various global warming threads -- the recent confirmation by two separate teams of scientists of the increasing output of solar energy over the last few decades --

"The recent studies suggesting that sun activity is the main player in climate change are very convincing when taken with the also recent information on warming on other planets in the solar system. No SUV's there, except Mars of course."



Phred


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InvisibleinfidelGOD
illusion

Registered: 04/18/02
Posts: 3,040
Loc: there
Re: Global Warming: The Final Proof? [Re: infidelGOD]
    #3803927 - 02/19/05 06:34 PM (12 years, 5 months ago)

Crichton continues:

"Remember, people in 1900 didn't know what an atom was. They didn't know its structure. They also didn't know what a radio was, or an airport, or a movie, or a television, or a computer, or a cell phone, or a jet, an antibiotic, a rocket, a satellite, an MRI, ICU, IUD, IBM, IRA, ERA, EEG, EPA, IRS, DOD, PCP, HTML, internet. interferon, instant replay, remote sensing, remote control, speed dialing, gene therapy, gene splicing, genes, spot welding, heat-seeking, bipolar, prozac, leotards, lap dancing, email, tape recorder, CDs, airbags, plastic explosive, plastic, robots, cars, liposuction, transduction, superconduction, dish antennas, step aerobics, smoothies, twelve-step, ultrasound, nylon, rayon, teflon, fiber optics, carpal tunnel, laser surgery, laparoscopy, corneal transplant, kidney transplant, AIDS... None of this would have meant anything to a person in the year 1900. They wouldn't know what you are talking about.

Now. You tell me you can predict the world of 2100. Tell me it's even worth thinking about. Our models just carry the present into the future. They're bound to be wrong. Everybody who gives a moment's thought knows it."




that's it then huh? we're bound to be wrong anyway so why even think about it?

Mr. Crichton is promoting a very dangerous way of thinking.


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InvisibleinfidelGOD
illusion

Registered: 04/18/02
Posts: 3,040
Loc: there
Re: Global Warming: The Final Proof? [Re: Phred]
    #3803977 - 02/19/05 06:59 PM (12 years, 5 months ago)

"The recent studies suggesting that sun activity is the main player in climate change are very convincing when taken with the also recent information on warming on other planets in the solar system."

do you have anymore information on this?

perhaps that commentator was confused and was actually referring to the seasonal warming of the planets?

http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/pluto_seasons_030709.html
http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/1998/triton-0715.html

is there evidence that increased solar activity is actually responsible for rising planetary temperatures?? this would be a remarkable discovery if it were true.


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InvisibleSilversoul
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Re: Global Warming: The Final Proof? [Re: GazzBut]
    #3803994 - 02/19/05 07:07 PM (12 years, 5 months ago)

I think the big question with global warming is: Do we wait for definitive proof before taking preventative measures?


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OfflineGazzBut
Refraction

Registered: 10/15/02
Posts: 4,770
Loc: London UK
Last seen: 1 month, 4 days
Re: Global Warming: The Final Proof? [Re: Phred]
    #3804002 - 02/19/05 07:10 PM (12 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

What I said is absolutely correct.




Wow! It must be amazing being you pinky...Never, ever being wrong.

Lets face it, you dont know if this data is in fact proof of global warming or not and nor do I. However, I havent claimed it is.

The sooner you get rid of this unseemly urge of yours to pretend you are all knowing the better!

Quote:

If you had bothered to read the very article you'd posted,




How tediously arrogant of you. But so kind of you to provide me with a chance for an immediate riposte:

Quote:

So far it's just a couple of researchers tooting their own horn.





"The study involved scientists from the US Department of Energy, the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, as well as the Met Office's Hadley Centre."

Hardly a couple of scientist tooting a horn is it? And you say you read the article?

Quote:

Crichton is in fact a scientist. He is a medical doctor.




It must have been an amazing med school that managed to teach him the intricacies of climate science at the same time as how to remove an appendix.


Quote:

And -- as I knew would be the case -- you didnt take the time to read the link I posted.




How do you know whether I read the link or not? Your arrogance beggars belief but it clearly illuminates the faulty thought processes and ego posturing that make up the workings of your mind and the laughable conclusions you reach. 10 out of 10 for pompous blustering though!

I read the lecture and its fairly obvious that this is merely an extension of his ideas which he expressed in his NOVEL State of Fear and therefore the first link I posted is relevant.

The second link I provided dealt directly with the amusing speech you originally posted.

Perhaps when the first Dinosaur theme park opens I will choose to take Crichton's fictions more seriously than: "scientists from the US Department of Energy, the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, as well as the Met Office's Hadley Centre."

Anyway, this research is fresh out of the bag. Im sure the scientific community waits with baited breath for Crichton to refute the method and conclusion....


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OfflineGazzBut
Refraction

Registered: 10/15/02
Posts: 4,770
Loc: London UK
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Re: Global Warming: The Final Proof? [Re: Silversoul]
    #3804014 - 02/19/05 07:13 PM (12 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

I think the big question with global warming is: Do we wait for definitive proof before taking preventative measures?




Me too!

Link


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Always Smi2le


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