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InvisibleAnnapurna1
liberal pussy
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Registered: 05/21/02
Posts: 5,646
Loc: innsmouth..MA
the healthcare time bomb...
    #3393106 - 11/21/04 03:16 PM (13 years, 26 days ago)

first..some simple arithmetic ..the current population of the baby boom..according to metlife(PDF) stands at 77.7 million..who will become terminally ill and die in the coming decades (roughly between 2015 and 2035)...the christian science monitor reports a 59% increase in healthcare insurance costs between 2001 and 2004..averaging to slightly less that 20% each year..which presumably echoes the increase in actual treatment costs...

unfortunately..i was unable to find any statistics on the actual per capita healthcare costs of a terminally ill patient..and i strongly suspect that this information is being widthheld to avert a negative political reaction...but OTOH..many if not most of us have an idea of what that number is anyway..from personal experience in our own families...

multiply that by 77.7 million..and factor in an annual increase of 20% (or even half of that)..and its easy to produce a mind-boggling number.. $1.0e+15 is well within the ballpark...its not an issue of whether or not its covered by insurance...its an issue of that price being monetized without funding ..what happens when you print $1.0e+15 paper dollars..and effectively pay them off to dead ppl who cant produce the wealth to back them up??...

we will find out the answer to that question in due course.. the american voters having chosen the neocon solution to the problem...


--------------------


"anchor blocks counteract the process of pontiprobation..while omalean globes regulize the pressure"...


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InvisibleRandalFlagg
Stranger
Registered: 06/15/02
Posts: 15,608
Re: the healthcare time bomb... [Re: Annapurna1]
    #3393383 - 11/21/04 05:36 PM (13 years, 26 days ago)

This expensive health care problem facing America is not because of
"neo-cons". It is because all of these baby boomers will get sick
and die, and there are social programs that take my money and give
it to them in order to treat them. People who are productive
will have to foot the bill for Social Security and Medicare.

Soon there will be tons of retired baby boomers who will be
receiving benefits. How can the relatively small amount of
productive taxpayers pay for this?

So, it is not the neo-cons that will bankrupt this
country(although they certainly don't help), it is the excessive
social programs which we cannot afford.

I saw a statistic once. If you take a look at all of the debt the
federal government has, it would be 25,000 for every man, woman, and
child in America. If you factor in the future obligations to
Medicare(free health care for old people) and social security(cash
payments to sick and old people) our debt would be 450,000 per
American citizen. Does that sound sustainable??


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Anonymous

Re: the healthcare time bomb... [Re: RandalFlagg]
    #3393396 - 11/21/04 05:40 PM (13 years, 26 days ago)

"Although the figures vary slightly from year to year, the 5 percent of the Medicare beneficiaries who die each year account for 25-30 percent of Medicare spending (Lubitz and Riley 1993; Hogan et al. 2001). The average Medicare decedent has costs in the last year of life six times those of the average survivor (Hogan et al. 2001). Most of these costs are incurred at the very end of patients' lives: 36 percent of the costs of Medicare beneficiaries in their last year of life are incurred in their last 30 days, and nearly 60 percent are incurred in their last 90 days (Riley et al. 1987)."

http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m4149/is_1_39/ai_113378796

nearly 60 percent of medicare spending is spent on people in their last 3 months of life. what a waste.


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InvisibleRandalFlagg
Stranger
Registered: 06/15/02
Posts: 15,608
Re: the healthcare time bomb... [Re: ]
    #3393432 - 11/21/04 05:49 PM (13 years, 26 days ago)


nearly 60 percent of medicare spending is spent on people in their
last 3 months of life. what a waste.

Our government is so fucked up.....

It allows doctors to try excessive treatments in the face of
inevitable death. The taxpayer usually foots the bill for these
treatments and the patient ends up suffering for another month or
two. A reasonable alternative would be euthanasia, but that is
illegal in many states(I'm not sure if it is illegal at the federal
level). So, normal healthy taxpayers pay to keep decrepit
old people alive for a few more months. Most of the time they
are comatose or in terrible pain.

When I get to that age and condition, I will not hesitate to
commit suicide. I don't want to be a burden to my family or my
government, I don't want a shitty life, and I don't want to
waste all of my personal resources when they could go to something
more useful(like paying for grandchildren's college education).

I am one of those people whom American socialism will not help at
all. I give the government so much of my money and I refuse to
use any of their programs because I pride myself in taking
care of myself.


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InvisibleAnnapurna1
liberal pussy
Female User Gallery
Registered: 05/21/02
Posts: 5,646
Loc: innsmouth..MA
Re: the healthcare time bomb... [Re: RandalFlagg]
    #3393491 - 11/21/04 06:02 PM (13 years, 26 days ago)

i never said that the neocons were at fault..merely that they dont have a constructive solution...meanwhile..the "i take care of myself" crowd has it all backwards ..they think that they can avoid paying taxes to fund healthcare costs for "useless eaters"..etc...but as a result..they will end up paying a much higher tax..in the form of currency devaluation..to fund healthcare costs for dead ppl..but maybe they think thats a lesser evil...

EDIT ..actually..thats not exactly true..since the neocons are pushing prescription drug prices...i should also add that inflationary taxes will still result..even if its all privately funded w/o the govt...


--------------------


"anchor blocks counteract the process of pontiprobation..while omalean globes regulize the pressure"...


Edited by Annapurna1 (11/21/04 06:30 PM)


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Anonymous

Re: the healthcare time bomb... [Re: Annapurna1]
    #3393520 - 11/21/04 06:10 PM (13 years, 26 days ago)

i take care of myself" crowd has it all backwards ..they think that they can avoid paying taxes to fund healthcare costs for "useless eaters"..etc...but as a result..they will end up paying a much higher tax..in the form of currency devaluation

huh?


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Offlined33p Happy Birthday
Welcome to Violence

Registered: 07/12/03
Posts: 5,381
Loc: the shores of Tripoli
Last seen: 4 years, 6 months
Re: the healthcare time bomb... [Re: ]
    #3393756 - 11/21/04 07:05 PM (13 years, 26 days ago)

Quote:

mushmaster said:
"Although the figures vary slightly from year to year, the 5 percent of the Medicare beneficiaries who die each year account for 25-30 percent of Medicare spending (Lubitz and Riley 1993; Hogan et al. 2001). The average Medicare decedent has costs in the last year of life six times those of the average survivor (Hogan et al. 2001). Most of these costs are incurred at the very end of patients' lives: 36 percent of the costs of Medicare beneficiaries in their last year of life are incurred in their last 30 days, and nearly 60 percent are incurred in their last 90 days (Riley et al. 1987)."

http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m4149/is_1_39/ai_113378796

nearly 60 percent of medicare spending is spent on people in their last 3 months of life. what a waste.




Mush that is 60% of the costs in their last year of life , not ever since they began recieving benefits. Still a shame though.


--------------------
I'm a nihilist. Lets be friends.

bang bang


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Anonymous

Re: the healthcare time bomb... [Re: d33p]
    #3393770 - 11/21/04 07:09 PM (13 years, 26 days ago)

you're right. thanks for pointing that out.


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InvisibleGreat_Satan
prophet of God
 User Gallery

Registered: 09/05/04
Posts: 953
Re: the healthcare time bomb... [Re: ]
    #3393905 - 11/21/04 07:37 PM (13 years, 26 days ago)

Here's what I did about the problem. I read a lot of recommendations about investing in drug companies. I did a little bit of that, but the drug companies' stocks always tended to be overvalued and the recent (last couple of years) bear market shows what can happen to overvalued stocks. Luckily, there are REITs (real estate investment trusts) that invest in health care facilities. They aren't excessively overvalued and they pay dividends which are guaranteed because by law REITs have to distribute 90-95% of their earnings to the share holders in the form of dividends to keep their tax status as REITs. I bought HCN, HCP, HR and VTR. Put the ticker symbols in here and you can see the stock performance and news:


http://www.bigcharts.com


Edited by Great_Satan (11/21/04 07:40 PM)


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