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OfflineRoseM
Devil's Advocate
Female User Gallery

Registered: 09/24/03
Posts: 22,518
Loc: Mod not God Flag
Last seen: 1 year, 7 months
Re: Teens for Bush [Re: afoaf]
    #3264411 - 10/22/04 11:29 AM (19 years, 4 months ago)

Fair,

But... the 18-30's tend to vote Democrat, in every election but landslides.


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Fiddlesticks.


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OfflineEchoVortex
(hard) member
Registered: 02/06/02
Posts: 859
Last seen: 15 years, 5 months
Re: Teens for Bush [Re: Phred]
    #3266554 - 10/22/04 11:51 PM (19 years, 4 months ago)

I checked your link.  The guy doesn't know what he's talking about.

Here's what he writes:

UPDATE:  Reader Will Franklin links to the Post's site and notes that "It has a neat feature where you can crosstab the polls to age and other factors."  I'll take his word for it, since I can't make it work.

Well, it is impossible to know exactly what the poll said when Will Franklin checked it since it's a tracking poll and the results are continuously updated, but here is what the same Post poll said today:

                            18-30

Bush/Cheney      35%
Kerry/Edwards    60%

You can see it for yourself: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/polls/2004293/q3_lean/age/index.html

Kerry has an overwhelming 25% lead among young voters, and I can't imagine that his numbers would have changed that much since Will Franklin checked them on Sept. 27th.  Either Will can't read charts or he's making stuff up.

-- Dems are more likely to cheat on those polls, especially when urged to do so by the vigorous DNC post-debate ballot-stuffing e-mail campaign. I can think of no other explanation for the ludicrous 88% number Kerry had in the first half hour after debate two ended, for example.

Dems are more likely to cheat on those polls?  Well thanks for that totally baseless bit of bullshit conjecture.  The owner of Diebold voting machines tells Bush that he's going to deliver him the election, Republican organizers make up a bogus marijuana legalization petition and then use it to register college students against their will as Republicans, and you assume that it's DEMs who are more likely to cheat! :lol:

I'm on the mailing list for both campaigns and BOTH campaigns asked people to vote on the online polls.  Neither of them told people to "vote early and often."

-- To point out the obvious, there is no way of knowing how many of those who respond to the polls you mentioned are even Americans, much less Americans in the 18-30 year old range. I recall reading more than a few posts in this forum crowing over how if everyone in the world (or at least everyone in a group of thirty-five countries) were allowed to vote, Kerry would get around ninety per cent of the vote. Do you believe that only Americans vote in CNN's online polls? MSNBC's? I can verify that these polls make no attempt to determine even the country of origin of the person clicking the button, much less the person's eligibility to vote in a US election, much less the age of that person. They've accepted my input without question every time I tried one (which admittedly is not all that often).

Now THAT, finally, is a valid point.  I was hoping you would make at least one in the course of this discussion. 

Back to the polls which were actually done scientifically -- there is no way in the world there would be a thirty-one point swing in less than four weeks absent a paradigm-changing event on the order of the 9-11 attacks. (and no, Bush's performance in the first debate doesn't count as such an event). It is quite clear that at least one of those polls is seriously flawed. Maybe all of them are.

It will be interesting to see the post-election breakdowns by age group.


ALL of the poll results I've seen with my own eyes show Kerry with a huge lead over Bush among 18-30 voters, and have for a long time.  Perhaps the hearsay you read on right-wing sites says differently, but that's neither here nor there.

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Invisibleafoaf
CEO DBK?
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Registered: 11/08/02
Posts: 32,665
Loc: Ripple's Heart
Re: Teens for Bush [Re: Rose]
    #3267336 - 10/23/04 09:58 AM (19 years, 4 months ago)

my point is that usually only high school seniors, and even then,
only a fraction of those seniors fall into the 18-30 so the trend
of dem votes is only slightly applicable.

high school freshman, sophmores and juniors are much younger,
probably only slightly informed about politics and fresh off the
public school's indoctrincation chain, so it seems they'd be less
likely to be critical of the government and potentially more likely
to vote for an encumbant, especially in this political atmosphere
of war and fear.


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All I know is The Growery is a place where losers who get banned here go.

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OfflinePhred
Fred's son
Male

Registered: 10/18/00
Posts: 12,949
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Re: Teens for Bush [Re: EchoVortex]
    #3267549 - 10/23/04 11:23 AM (19 years, 4 months ago)

You are correct that the links at the captainsquarters blog no longer show the results they did earlier. Apparently, both links have been updated with newer data since the post was made.

And, as you know already, unless you pay bucks to Gallup, you can't access all their archived polls. Still, there's this --

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=40698 Sept 29 2004

It mentions the same Sept 27 ABC-Wapo poll --

Quote:

In fact, the latest Washington Post-ABC poll shows George W. Bush holding a 53-41 percent lead among those aged 18 to 30, the highest level of support for Bush among any age group.




That's two mentions from different sources quoting exactly the same figures from exactly the same poll which was available for all the world to see at the time the articles were written. If you believe both those guys were lying -- especially when they could be fact checked by anyone -- then there is no help for you. If you care to spend some money, you can check it on Gallup as well. I'd pay for the subscription and do the cut and paste myself, but you'd probably only accuse me of cooking the figures too.

Here's something from commondreams -- and if anyone thinks commondreams is a Bush-supporting website they need to get off the crack pipe. I can think of few more leftist websites out there than commondreams. http://www.commondreams.org/headlines03/1019-08.htm October 18 2004

Quote:

Similar trends have been reported this fall by the Pew Research Center. The latest Gallup Poll, released this week, showed that even as Mr. Bush's overall approval rating had risen to 56 percent from 50 percent during the past month, voters older than 65 remained his weakest age group. Forty-nine percent of them approved of the job he was doing, compared with 60 percent of those 30 to 49.




Being a lefty site, they only emphasize how Bush is slipping rather than listing all the internals of the poll they are summarizing. But if they say his approval rating is lowest in the over-65 group at 49%, then logically for the under thirty group it must be at least 50%. This is a far cry from the numbers your link shows. And yes, I recognize the difference between "approval" and "will vote for". But it still shows under thirties approve of Bush.

Here's something from yet another lefty site -- http://www.progressivetrail.org/articles/031124Ireland.shtml Oct 23 2004

Quote:

You might ask, 'Won't bringing new voters into the process make a difference?' 'Won't the youth voter registration by Rock the Vote, MoveOn, and the new Norman Lear/Drew Barrymore campaign add tons of new anti-Bush voters to the rolls?' Nope. The Harvard University national student survey released last month shows that approval of Bush approaches two-thirds?a finding reinforced by the 62 percent pro-Bush support among the 19-to-24 age group in the Oct. 29 Gallup poll (which also found 61 percent of the young think the Iraq war was "worth it."




Again, not a direct link to the polls captainsquarters was quoting, but it bolsters what those polls said.

Here we have an unfortunate circumstance where links have expired, and there appears to be no easy (or at least no free) way to access those polls. Still, just because you didn't click on those polls back in September to see with your own eyes what they said, to claim out of hand that several different sources who did do just that are either mistaken or lying is desperation on your part. I originally came across them in the Wall Street Journal. All three of those sites (WSJ, captainsquarters, worldnetdaily) get tens to hundreds of thousands of hits daily. They (especially captainsquarters and the WSJ) are meticulous about correcting errors, often within hours, because their readership are demanding and skeptical. The numbers quoted are accurate, whether you can easily verify them today with a click of your mouse or whether you need to go to a library and dig up back issues of the publications themselves.

Now you give us a current poll showing wildly different numbers. As I said before, either your poll or my polls are inaccurate. Perhaps all of them are inaccurate. We'll know in less than two weeks either way.


pinky


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OfflineEchoVortex
(hard) member
Registered: 02/06/02
Posts: 859
Last seen: 15 years, 5 months
Re: Teens for Bush [Re: Phred]
    #3269808 - 10/23/04 11:41 PM (19 years, 4 months ago)

Uh, sorry to have to break it you, but your links to Common Dreams and Progressive Trail are NOT from 2004 as you write, but from 2003. The Progressive Trail article, which you say is from October 23, 2004, references an October 29 Gallup Poll. Hello? It's not even October 29th yet! Anybody who clicks the links can see with their own eyes the issue dates for those stories.

So it is more than possible that Bush's support among young people has plummeted over the course of the last year.

As far as the worldnetdaily reference goes, hey, who knows, I guess it's possible that the ABC/WPost poll actually gave those figures on Sept 27th and that Bush lost 18 points and Kerry gained 19 points because of the debates.

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InvisibleSwami
Eggshell Walker

Registered: 01/18/00
Posts: 15,413
Loc: In the hen house
Re: Teens for Bush [Re: Phred]
    #3269917 - 10/24/04 12:16 AM (19 years, 4 months ago)

This generation is the most addicted to the tube ever and are daily spoon-fed B.S.


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The proof is in the pudding.

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OfflineGazzBut
Refraction

Registered: 10/15/02
Posts: 4,773
Loc: London UK
Last seen: 2 months, 14 days
Re: Teens for Bush [Re: Phred]
    #3323267 - 11/05/04 04:56 AM (19 years, 4 months ago)

According to our good friend Michael Moore: ". The only age group in which the majority voted for Kerry was young adults
(Kerry: 54%, Bush: 44%), proving once again that your parents are always
wrong and you should never listen to them. "


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Always Smi2le

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OfflinePhred
Fred's son
Male

Registered: 10/18/00
Posts: 12,949
Loc: Dominican Republic
Last seen: 9 years, 2 months
Re: Teens for Bush [Re: GazzBut]
    #3323437 - 11/05/04 06:58 AM (19 years, 4 months ago)

Michael Moore says so? Then it must be true. *searches for the "sarcasm" tag*


pinky


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InvisibleAntiMeme
yankee doodledandy
Registered: 08/11/04
Posts: 208
Re: Teens for Bush [Re: Phred]
    #3323464 - 11/05/04 07:14 AM (19 years, 4 months ago)

"The Kids did it - our map is true blue":

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/11/4/191246/507

"Luckily for America, old people die."


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OfflineGazzBut
Refraction

Registered: 10/15/02
Posts: 4,773
Loc: London UK
Last seen: 2 months, 14 days
Re: Teens for Bush [Re: Phred]
    #3326734 - 11/06/04 02:40 AM (19 years, 4 months ago)

Michael Moore said it? Then it must be false.

Note I didnt actually say it was true. But you seem to have decided it must be false based purely on who said it..seems a bit weak minded to me.


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Always Smi2le

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OfflinePhred
Fred's son
Male

Registered: 10/18/00
Posts: 12,949
Loc: Dominican Republic
Last seen: 9 years, 2 months
Re: Teens for Bush [Re: GazzBut]
    #3326906 - 11/06/04 06:34 AM (19 years, 4 months ago)

How is it possible to know how the 18-29 age group actually voted, short of post-election telephone polls by Gallup, Zogby et al, or exit polls? We've already seen that the exit polls -- or at least the exit polls splashed all over the web by dupes like the dailykos, wonkette, atrios, democraticunderground and other leftie bloggers -- were at a huge variance with the actual results. Excuse me if I choose to disregard Michael freakin' Moore's numbers.

That said, I really am very interested in finding out the numbers for that demographic. Perhaps in the days to come we can see a breakdown by age from a reputable source. I certainly hope so.


pinky


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