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Registered: 11/08/02
Posts: 32,665
Loc: Ripple's Heart
Peak Oil
    #3294704 - 10/29/04 07:24 PM (11 years, 11 months ago)


Civilization as we know it is coming to an end soon. This is not the wacky proclamation of a doomsday cult, apocalypse bible prophecy sect, or conspiracy theory society. Rather, it is the scientific conclusion of the best paid, most widely-respected geologists, physicists, and investment bankers in the world. These are rational, professional, conservative individuals who are absolutely terrified by a phenomenon known as global ?Peak Oil.?

The ramifications of Peak Oil are so serious, one of George W. Bush?s energy advisors, investment banker Matthew Simmons has stated, ?The situation is desperate. This is the world?s biggest serious question,? while comparing the crisis to the perfect storm: ?If you read The Perfect Storm, where a freak storm materializes out of the convergence of three weather systems, our energy crisis results from the same phenomenon.?

Simmons? investment bank, Simmons and Company International, is considered the most reputable and reliable energy investment bank in the world.

Given Simmons? background and reputation, what he has to say about the situation is truly terrifying. For instance, in an August 2003 interview with From the Wilderness publisher Michael Ruppert, Simmons was asked if it was time for Peak Oil to become part of the public policy debate. He responded:

It is past time. As I have said, the experts and politicians have no
Plan B to fall back on. If energy peaks, particularly while 5 of the
world?s 6.5 billion people have little or no use of modern energy, it
will be a tremendous jolt to our economic well-being and to our
health ? greater than anyone could ever imagine.

When asked if there is a solution to the impending natural gas crisis, Simmons responded:

I don?t think there is one. The solution is to pray. Under the best of
circumstances, if all prayers are answered there will be no crisis
for maybe two years. After that it?s a certainty.

In May 2004, Simmons explained that in order for demand to be appropriately controlled, the price of oil would have to reach $182 per barrel. With oil prices at $182 per barrel, gas prices would likely rise to $7.00 per gallon.

If you want to ponder just how devastating oil prices in the $180 range will be for the US economy, consider the fact that one of Osama Bin-Laden?s goals has been to force oil prices to $200 per barrel.

Simmons has been sounding the alarm for years. For a while, he was a lone "voice in the wilderness." In the past year or so, however, many experts have begun echoing his sentiments. Ali Samsam Bakhtiari, the vice-president of the Iranian National Oil Company has stated:

The crisis is very, very near. World War III has started. It has already
affected every single citizen of the Middle East. Soon it will spill over
to affect every single citizen of the world.

On a similar note, the respected Washington-based consulting firm PFC Energy Group recently released a report predicting a coming "energy doomsday."

Say what you will about George W. Bush, he has been very open with the American people about this particular issue. In May 2001, George W. Bush went on the record as saying, ?What people need to hear loud and clear is that we?re running out of energy in America.?

Vice-President Dick Cheney publicly acknowledged the reality of Peak Oil in 1999 when he stated:

By some estimates, there will be an average two-percent annual
growth in global energy demand over the years ahead, along with,
conservatively, a three percent natural decline in production from
existing reserves.

That means that by 2010 we will need on the order of an additional
50 million barrels per day.

The oil-producing nations of the world are currently pumping at full capacity yet they are only producing 82.5 million barrels per day. Raising production by 50 million barrels per day is essentially impossible. Cheney's remarks were thus a tacit admission of the severity and imminence of the peak.

Executives from Big Oil have publicly acknowledged the scope of the coming crisis as well. In 2003, Exxon Mobil president Jon Thompson stated:

By 2015, we will need to find, develop, and produce a volume of
new oil and gas that is equivalent to eight out of every 10 barrels
being produced today. In addition, the cost associated with
providing this additional oil and gas is expected to be considerably
more than what the industry is now spending.

Equally daunting is the fact that many of the most promising
prospects are far from major markets - some in regions that lack
even basic infrastructure. Others are in extreme climates, such as
the Arctic, that present extraordinary technical challenges.

In October 2003, Michael Moore released the book, Dude, Where?s My Country? Chapter three of the book, ?Oil?s Well that Ends Well,? was dedicated to the coming post-oil die-off.

The Saudi's have a saying about the situation,"My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet airplane. His son will ride a camel."

Former UK Environmental Minister Michael Meacher was equally frank, when he stated, "It is hard to envisage the effects of a radically reduced oil supply on a modern economy or society."

Put simply, anytime investment bankers, consulting firms, executives from "Big Oil," Dick Cheney, George W. Bush, officials from OPEC nations, Osama Bin Laden, and the Saudi royal family are in complete agreement with leftist demagogues like Michael Moore and influential environmentalists like Michael Meacher, it's safe to say "the shit is about to hit the fan."

"Are We 'Running Out'? I Thought
There Was 40 Years of the Stuff Left"

The issue is not one of "running out" so much as it is not having enough to keep our economy running. In this regard, the ramifications of Peak Oil for our civilization are similar to the ramifications of dehydration for the human body. The human body is 70 percent water. The body of a 200 pound man thus holds 140 pounds of water. Because water is so crucial to everything the human body does, the man doesn't need to lose all 140 pounds of water weight before collapsing due to dehydration. A loss of as little as 10-15 pounds of water may be enough to kill him.

In a similar sense, an oil-based economy such as ours doesn't have to deplete its entire reserves of oil before it begins to collapse. Once the shortfall between demand and supply gets beyond 10-15 percent, all hell is going to break lose.

To understand the nature of the coming crisis, you need to understand what geologists call "Hubbert's Peak," named for the Shell geologist Dr. Marion King Hubbert. In 1956, Hubbert accurately predicted that US domestic oil production would peak in 1970. He also predicted global production would peak in 1995, which it would have had the politically created oil shocks of the 1970s not delayed the peak for about 10-15 years.

Oil will not just "run out" because all oil production follows a bell curve. This is true whether we're talking about an individual field, a country, or on the planet as a whole.

Oil is increasingly plentiful on the upslope of the bell curve, increasingly scarce and expensive on the down slope. The peak of the curve coincides with the point at which the endowment of oil has been 50 percent depleted. Once the peak is passed, oil production begins to go down while cost begins to go up.

In practical and considerably oversimplified terms, this means that if 2000 was the year of global Peak Oil, worldwide oil production in the year 2020 will be the same as it was in 1980. However, the world?s population in 2020 will be both much larger (approximately twice) and much more industrialized (oil-dependent) than it was in 1980. Consequently, worldwide demand for oil will outpace worldwide production of oil by a significant margin. As a result, the price will skyrocket, economies will crumble, and resource wars will explode.

Graph: Dr. C.J Campbell (1996)

"What About Other or New Sources of Oil?"

Fortunately, we have a massive amount of oil located in the oil sands up in Canada and down in Venezuela. Unfortunately, these oil sands projects are projected to peak in 2020 at about 4-5 million barrels of oil per day. That's not much oil considering we currently need 82.5 million barrels per day and are already losing over 1 million barrels per day due to depletion.

Some people believe oil is actually a renewable resource continually produced by an "abiotic" process deep in the Earth. As emotionally appealing as this theory may be, it ignores most common sense and all scientific fact.

Even if this theory is true, it isn't doing us much good as production is declining in pretty much every nation outside the Middle East.

The oil companies don't give this theory the slightest bit of credence even though they are more motivated than anybody to find an unlimited source of oil as each company's shareholder value is based largely on how much oil it holds in reserve.

"Aren't There Alternatives to Oil?"

Many politicians and economists insist that there are alternatives to oil and that we can "invent our way out of this." Physicists and geologists tell us an entirely different story. The politicians and economists are selling us 30-year old economic and political fantasies, while the physicists and geologists are telling us scientific and mathematical truth. Rather than accept the high-tech myths proposed by the politicians and economists, its time for you to start asking critical questions about the so called "alternatives to oil" and facing some hard truths about energy.

Unfortunately, since most people see and hear only what they want to see and hear, the politicians and economists are lauded while the physicists and geologists are ignored.

While there are many technologically viable alternatives to oil, there are none (or combination thereof) that can supply us with anywhere near the amount of net-energy required by our modern monetary system and industrial infrastructure.

If we have have a few dozen technological miracles, unprecedented political will and bipartisan cooperation, massive amounts of investment capital, and about 25-50 years of peace and prosperity to retrofit the world's 40 trillion dollar per year industrial infrastructure, we might be able to get the energy equivalent of 3-5 billion barrels of oil per year from alternative sources.

That's a tremendous amount of oil - about as much as the entire world used per year during World War II, but it's not enough. Unfortunately, the world currently needs over 30 billion barrels of oil per year to support economic growth. That number will only increase as time goes on due to population growth, debt servicing, and the industrialization of countries like China and India.

Furthermore, people tend to think of alternatives to oil as somehow independent from oil. In reality, the alternatives to oil are more accurately described as "derivatives of oil." It takes massive amounts of oil and other scarce resources to locate and mine the raw materials (silver, copper, platinum, uranium, etc.) necessary to build solar panels, windmills, and nuclear power plants. It takes more oil to construct these alternatives and even more oil to distribute them, maintain them, and adapt current infrastructure to run on them.

Plant based alternatives like ethanol and biodiesel are also entirely dependent on an abundant supply of oil as modern agriculture is entirely oil-powered. All pesticides are derived from oil while all fertilizers are derived from natural gas, which is also running out. As oil production declines, so will our ability to produce food and agricultural-based alternatives to oil.

It's not just transportation and agriculture that are entirely dependent on abundant, cheap energy. Modern medicine, water distribution, and national defense are each entirely powered by oil and petroleum derived chemicals. Most consumer goods are made with plastic, which is derived from oil.

As Matt Simmons has stated:

. . . usable energy is the world's most critical resource then obviously it
is an important issue. Without volume energy we have no sustainable
water, we have no sustainable food, we now have no sustainable

"What About Amazing New Technologies?"

Technologies such as thermal depolymerization are promising as solutions to our landfill problems, but since most of the feedstock (such as tires and turkey guts) requires high-grade oil to make in the first place, it is not a solution to a permanent oil shortage. Furthermore, there is only one thermal deploymerization plant online and it is producing less than 500 barrels of oil per day. While the technology certainly deserves investment, it is both reliant on oil and it is simply "far too little, way too late" for it to save you from the devastating economic effects of the coming energy famine.

While there are some promising technological advancements in areas such as solar-nanotechnology, even the scientists at the forefront of these technologies admit we need a series of "miracles" to prevent a total collapse of industrial civilization.

In other words, the chances of technology saving you from the coming economic collapse are about the same as the chances of another virgin-birth taking place.

For you or any other "average" person to expect high-tech solutions to save you from the economic effects of Peak Oil is akin to a person living in sub-Saharan Africa to expect high-tech medical treatments to save their community from the effects of AIDS. These treatments are available to people like Magic Johnson, not the folks in Africa. Likewise, many of the recent technological advancements in energy production and efficiency may be available and affordable to people like George W. Bush and Warren Buffet or agencies like the Department of Defense, but they aren't going to be available or affordable to the average person.

The idea that technology is going to save you from this crisis is downright silly. Technology uses energy. It does not produce it. Here in the 21st century, we have no shortage of technology. We have a shortage of energy. As you are probably well aware, the price of technology has been plummeting while the price of oil has been skyrocketing.

Besides, most forms of technology require tremendous amounts of oil in the first place. The average desktop computer, for instance, consumes 10 times its weight in fossil fuels during its construction alone.

On a similar note, the average car consumes 120,000 gallons of fresh water just during its construction. Unfortunately, the world is in the midst of a severe water crisis that is only going to get worse in the years to come. Scientists are already warning us to get ready for massive "water wars."

Consequently, the only way for us to replace our current fleet of gas-guzzling SUVs with fuel-efficient hybrids is to kill 2-3 billion people, steal their fresh water, and use it to construct a new generation of high-tech cars.

The widespread use of technologies such as the internal combustion engine and the air conditioner is what got us into this situation. It is thus unlikely that even more technology will get us out of it.

"What's Going to Happen to the Economy?"

Even if you can currently afford these technologies, it won't help you much since the majority of the population can't. Got solar panels on your roof and a brand-new hybrid car? Great, but since most people can't afford those things, the economy is still going to collapse.

The US economy is particularly vulnerable to the coming oil shortages. As the most indebted nation in the world, the US is completely dependent on strong economic growth just to pay the interest on its debts. This is as true for individual citizens as it is for corporations and governments. A declining oil/energy supply means the economy can't grow which means individuals, corporations, and governments can't pay off their debts, which means economic anarchy is on the way.

Furthermore, unlike nations in Europe, the US has built it's entire infrastructure and way of life under the assumption oil would always be cheap and plentiful. Since that is no longer the case, the US economy is in even more trouble than the economies of nations like the UK, Germany, Spain, and France.

So even in the best-case scenario, we're looking at an international financial meltdown and a collapse of the value of US dollar so severe that the Great Depression will look like the "good ole days."

The financial dislocations wrought by the coming oil shocks will plunge the world into a series of resource wars and "currency insurgencies" unlike anything we can imagine.

"How Does the US Government
Plan to Deal With This?"

Before you get too worried, rest assured that the US government has been aware of Peak Oil since at least 1977 and has been actively planning for this crisis for over 30 years. Three decades of careful, plotting analysis has yielded the following 2-step plan:

Step 1: Go to war to get oil;

Step 2: Kill whoever gets in the way;

If you?re like 99 percent of the people reading this letter, you had never heard of the term ?Peak Oil? until today. I had not heard of the term until a year ago. Since learning about Peak Oil, I?ve had my view of the world, and basic assumptions about my own individual future, turned completely upside-down.

A little about myself: In November 2003, I was a 25-year-old law school graduate who found out he had just passed the California Bar Exam. I was excited about a potentially long and prosperous career in the legal profession, getting married, having kids, contributing to my community, and living the ?American Dream.? Since learning about Peak Oil, those dreams have been radically altered.

In January 2004, I published this site on the web. As of October 20, 2004 it has received over 1 million visits and 3 million page views. In May 2004 I published a book, The Oil Age is Over: What to Expect as the World Runs Out of Cheap Oil, 2005-2050 as a tool to convince my friends and family of the need to begin preparing for the coming energy famine. Below you will find selected adaptations from that book. If you would like a copy of the book, I've made them available via my online store.

I must warn you, the information contained in The Oil Age is Over is not for the faint of heart or the easily disturbed. Whether you?re 25 or 75, an attorney or an auto mechanic, what you will read will likely shake the foundations of your life and irrevocably alter your world outlook.


Matt Savinar

All I know is The Growery is a place where losers who get banned here go.

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Registered: 11/10/04
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Re: Peak Oil [Re: afoaf]
    #3360708 - 11/14/04 06:15 PM (11 years, 11 months ago)

you are right on that, my friend.

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Re: Peak Oil [Re: afoaf]
    #3360871 - 11/14/04 06:50 PM (11 years, 11 months ago)

Wow, peak oil sounds more imminent then I thought.

Have you researched hemp biodiesel(sp?) very much? I do not have a clue to what other inputs are included in proccessing the oil. I have read many times that hemp biodiesel is better then other kinds of bio-fuel becasue of the ease and speed at which hemp grows. It produces more biomass then other plants, needs no pesticides (right?), and grows from arctic to tropical regions.

Do you know if hemp fuel is feasable for energy, and if it is how efficient is it.

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Daisy Chain Eater

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Re: Peak Oil [Re: afoaf]
    #3361276 - 11/14/04 08:24 PM (11 years, 11 months ago)

2020 seems like a low estimate to me.
A went to see a lecture on this last year. I forgot the name of the geologist giving it. But he was one of the authors of one of the many books out on this subject. He put the peak closer to 2045. This seems to be closer to the general consensus of most academic geologists who study oil drilling (not to be confused with the thousands of geologist who work with oil drilling). Some I know put it closer to 2060.

But everyone agrees the peak will happen within the next century. And almost everyone agrees gas powered automobiles will be dead within 60 or 70 years. Many people say it'll be sooner.

This raises an interesting global warming issue because the timing of the so called peak will significantly affect how much CO2 is being put into the atmosphere. I've met a few environmentalists who encourage people to buy the biggest SUVs possible, hoping to hasten the oil curve. They were telling me that if we can use up as much oil as possible now, the drilling technology won't move fast enough to catch up economically and companies will have incentive to move on to hydro cars faster. They fear that if the oil industry is allowed to drag on for another 30 years, the environment will see real problems when a few billion people in China and India become first time car buyers.

It seemed like an interesting idea to me, but I wouldn't try to talk anyone into buying it. Climate systems have been shown to have a renowned ability to remain stable when given slow and steady amounts of variables (though this isn't to say they can remain stable indefinitely). There's more likely to become unstable and change when they're given (relatively) sudden amounts of influence. This is because the various sciences controlling climate - meteorology, ocean currents, glacial geology - all work on tipping points. I think to purposely pump as much CO2 as possible into the air, even for a short period, could be dangerous.

I would personally like to believe that companies will start rolling out hyrdo cars before the curve even peaks. I'm not usually a fan of government meddling with business. But to help these companies out, if only by giving them tax breaks, would be doing everyone and the environment a favor for the long term. The first G8 countries to get their automobiles off fossil fuels should definitely ride economic booms.

what's with neocons and the word 'ilk'?

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Re: Peak Oil [Re: afoaf]
    #3361404 - 11/14/04 08:52 PM (11 years, 11 months ago)

If gas goes up to $7.00 a gallon, then vegetable oil will go up too. At just $3.00 a gallon it becomes more economic as a fuel than petroleum.

I guess that means that the price of food will go up when we start burning it for fuel. Production will presumably increase, but how much more room do we have for agriculture on this planet?


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Re: Peak Oil [Re: Gijith]
    #3361611 - 11/14/04 10:06 PM (11 years, 11 months ago)

It's not just about fuel for cars. We could convert all our vehicles to some non-petroleum source without too much inconvenience.

I think energy is the big issue. We need electricity to convert raw material into finished product (ore to metal, metal to car, sand to glass, glass to lightbulb,...)

For that we have coal, of which there is over 10 times as much as there is liquid petroleum. We have enough coal to provide all our energy needs for 200-300 years unless our consumption increases more than the current increase.


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point of inflection
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Re: Peak Oil [Re: Baby_Hitler]
    #3361651 - 11/14/04 10:16 PM (11 years, 11 months ago)

It would be nice if they could find a more efficient way to liberate the energy in coal, other than just burning it.

You're here because you know something.
What you know you can't explain,
But you feel it;
You've felt it your entire life.
That there's something wrong with the world.
You don't know what it is, but it's there....
Like a splinter in your mind...
Driving you mad.

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prophet of God
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Re: Peak Oil [Re: trendal]
    #3361682 - 11/14/04 10:26 PM (11 years, 11 months ago)

This means we have to control the imbeciles in the mid east to keep the price of oil down.

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Re: Peak Oil [Re: Great_Satan]
    #3361831 - 11/14/04 11:05 PM (11 years, 11 months ago)

If you don't like them, then don't buy their oil.

Why would you want to keep the price of oil down?


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Re: Peak Oil [Re: Baby_Hitler]
    #3361841 - 11/14/04 11:06 PM (11 years, 11 months ago)

We're all forgetting how much is made with petroleum. Our highways, our plastics, many of our clothes, lots of stuff. As the demand for this material exponentially increases, so will this threat. Think of all the developing countries in the world that require more and more of this resource.

2020 is a good rough estimate, I think.

As the life of a candle,
my wick will burn out.
But, the fire of my mind
shall beam into infinite.

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Re: Peak Oil [Re: psyka]
    #3361863 - 11/14/04 11:12 PM (11 years, 11 months ago)

Everything that can be made from pertoleum can be made from natural sources if you have enough energy.


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Re: Peak Oil [Re: afoaf]
    #3361997 - 11/14/04 11:44 PM (11 years, 11 months ago)

Either there's something I'm missing here or this is a relative non-issue. If the nations of this planet, or the whole planet, worked in a Socialist manner there truly might be a looming cataclysm. Socialism taken to its logical conclusion inexorably and utterly fails, as was proven by Ludwig von Mises, because without something of a free market in which to determine prices by the laws of supply and demand economic calculation becomes more and more impossible and the guesses of the central planners become more and more ludicrous and destructive. Relating this to the topic at hand, if this world were Socialist then we truly would be in trouble. On more counts than just this one we are fortunate that the world is not socialist. In the even pseudo-capitalist society that we have almost all prices are determined by the marketplace. It cannot be denied that oil will run out one day, but many of the articles above would lead the non-thinker to believe that such a day will come unexpected and will, like by the snap of a finger, bring about some kind of apocalypse. Anyone who has even the loosest grasp of how prices are determined and how they effect the marketplace under capitalism will know that such thinking is incredibly fallacious. When prices begin to rise due to a shortage of oil (as supply decreases prices increase), incentive will begin to mount for alternatives. The articles above state such insane things as, and I paraphrase, 'can you imagine the havoc that will be rife within our society when the gas is at $7.00 a gallon?' I can certainly imagine such a thing if gas were to become $7.00 a gallon tomorrow, but that will not happen nor will anything even close to that happen. As we continue to exhaust the supply of oil prices will gradually rise. As they gradually rise incentive will increase more and more to find alternatives in every walk of life which demands it. As far as automobiles go, perhaps consumers will start considering solar/hybrid/electric/etc. cars when gas hits $2.75 a gallon; perhaps the majority of consumers will buy such vehicles when it hits $3.50 a gallon; perhaps almost all consumers will have such a car by the time gas would be $5.00 a gallon. As 1st world consumers are weened off such commodities prices will stabilize somewhat for 3rd world consumers who will obviously be on somewhat of a delay. The same events will transpire in the 3rd world too, I would surmise.

Is there something I missed?

?When Alexander the Great visted the philosopher Diogenes and asked whether he could do anything for him, Diogenes is said to have replied: 'Yes, stand a little less between me and the sun.' It is what every citizen is entitled to ask of his government.?
-Henry Hazlitt in 'Economics in One Lesson'

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Re: Peak Oil [Re: afoaf]
    #3362095 - 11/15/04 12:11 AM (11 years, 11 months ago)

Hopefully, the loss of this as energy may help the environment tremendously over the next couple centuries, assuming we choose a safer renewable alternative

If so, this would seem an extremely positive thing for humanity and the earth, even if the human's short-term attention span does not realize it. When positive change does not come, it is often forced against the will of those who despise change

So long as you are praised think only that you are not yet on your own path but on that of another.

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Re: Peak Oil [Re: Baby_Hitler]
    #3362138 - 11/15/04 12:22 AM (11 years, 11 months ago)

How much more room do we have for agriculture on this planet? It will just take better crop management and turning spaces we use for frivolous shit like golf courses into plots.

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Re: Peak Oil [Re: biglo]
    #3362790 - 11/15/04 05:21 AM (11 years, 11 months ago)

everyone seems to think we need more energy..
maybe do we need fewer people?
sometimes im conservative.... others, very liberal... mostly somewhere in between

conservation mmm.
sorry, i'll turn off my computer now.

edited for spelling :tongue2:

"You cannot trust in law, unless you can trust in people. If you can trust in people, you don't need law." -J. Mumma

Edited by BleaK (11/15/04 05:21 AM)

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Re: Peak Oil [Re: Ancalagon]
    #3362917 - 11/15/04 07:42 AM (11 years, 11 months ago)


Socialism taken to its logical conclusion inexorably and utterly fails

Probabaly depends on how you judge success and failure though doesnt it?

Always Smi2le

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Re: Peak Oil [Re: GazzBut]
    #3362929 - 11/15/04 07:51 AM (11 years, 11 months ago)

Btw, Does anyone still fail to see the glaringly obvious link between these kind of reports and the war in Iraq???

Always Smi2le

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Re: Peak Oil [Re: Ancalagon]
    #3362972 - 11/15/04 08:26 AM (11 years, 11 months ago)

One thing that is very important for people to understand is that running out of oil is not and has never been the problem.

The problem is running out of cheap oil. Our economy is based on cheap oil. And no other sources of energy can compete.


It is better to be hated for what you are than to be loved for what you are not. -Andre Gide

"Generosity is nothing else than a craze to possess. All which I abandon, all which I give, I enjoy in a higher manner through the fact that I give it away. To give is to enjoy possessively the object which one gives."

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Re: Peak Oil [Re: Ancalagon]
    #3363024 - 11/15/04 09:01 AM (11 years, 11 months ago)

You make it sound as if all economists agree with you. I'm sure you know that's not the case.

I'm all in favour of a free market in every way apart from when it comes to negative externalities. The free market cannot compensate for environmental damage, for example, because there is no money in doing so. Private individuals will not, unless they suffer uncharacteristically huge bouts of altruism, fund saving the environment. The environment affects everybody, so everybody who damages it (all of us) should pay for its reparation, in proportion to the damage we do.

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Re: Peak Oil [Re: afoaf]
    #3363081 - 11/15/04 09:43 AM (11 years, 11 months ago)

I think the idea of peak oil is firstly, a scare tactic, and secondly, a non-issue. There are already alternative fuel technologies waiting and ready to go to market as soon as the oil starts to dwindle. The only reason alternative fuels have not yet taken off are high costs and the oil monopoly itself. Once the oil runs dry the "Big Oil" barons will be a non-issue and the costs will take care of themselves due to market competition.

Certainly the economy may suffer depending on how fast the oil dependency ends, but it's hardly the end of civilization.

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