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InvisibleGnuBobo
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Zogby on the Daily Show: Kerry will take it
    #3292035 - 10/29/04 01:39 AM (12 years, 1 month ago)

Anyone else see this? Interesting, coming from this guy. His rationale seemed all right. But, then, there are so many unknowable factors going into it.

GB


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Offlined33p
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Re: Zogby on the Daily Show: Kerry will take it [Re: GnuBobo]
    #3292051 - 10/29/04 01:44 AM (12 years, 1 month ago)

I liked how he said "Why are you asking me this question? I told you i didn't want you to ask me that," or something similar in response to "How are polls accurate?"


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I'm a nihilist. Lets be friends.

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Invisiblez@z.com
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Registered: 10/13/02
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Re: Zogby on the Daily Show: Kerry will take it [Re: GnuBobo]
    #3292063 - 10/29/04 01:49 AM (12 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

GnuBobo said:
Anyone else see this? Interesting, coming from this guy. His rationale seemed all right. But, then, there are so many unknowable factors going into it.

GB


Electoral vote predictor. It seems Kerry is in the lead, but it is really by a statistically insignificant margine.


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"Of all tyrannies, a tyranny exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It may be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end, for they do so with the approval of their own conscience." - C.S. Lewis

"I would rather be exposed to the inconveniencies attending too much liberty than to those attending too small a degree of it." - Thomas Jefferson


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Offlineoggleman
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Re: Zogby on the Daily Show: Kerry will take it [Re: z@z.com]
    #3292110 - 10/29/04 02:03 AM (12 years, 1 month ago)

I saw it. He thinks undecideds will support the incumbent less than they have in past elections, and they won't decide until election day or even until they vote, and the race is so close that those undecideds in swing states may determine the elecion.

d33p, Zogby explained that you have to make 10,000 phone calls to get a sample of 12-1300 for a poll, so stewart asked why the margin of error isn't like 70%. It was like an Ali G type question. It was funny, but a little ackward. My guess is he probably didn't want to get into some lengthy and boring explanation of how they determine the margin of error on a comedy program.


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Invisiblez@z.com
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Re: Zogby on the Daily Show: Kerry will take it [Re: oggleman]
    #3292168 - 10/29/04 02:22 AM (12 years, 1 month ago)

I think Kerry may very well win. Hopefully there will be a deadlock between him and congress though. If that happens it would be much better than Bush being elected as long as a lot of supreme court justices don't retire.


--------------------
"Of all tyrannies, a tyranny exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It may be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end, for they do so with the approval of their own conscience." - C.S. Lewis

"I would rather be exposed to the inconveniencies attending too much liberty than to those attending too small a degree of it." - Thomas Jefferson


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OfflineRoseM
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Re: Zogby on the Daily Show: Kerry will take it [Re: z@z.com]
    #3292193 - 10/29/04 02:32 AM (12 years, 1 month ago)

I hope Bush wins the popular vote and Kerry wins the electoral vote.


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Fiddlesticks.



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Anonymous

Re: Zogby on the Daily Show: Kerry will take it [Re: z@z.com]
    #3292997 - 10/29/04 10:09 AM (12 years, 1 month ago)

according to that link bush now leads. it looks like it's gonna be close but i'd say that bush has an edge.


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Offlinelonestar2004
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Re: Zogby on the Daily Show: Kerry will take it [Re: ]
    #3293020 - 10/29/04 10:21 AM (12 years, 1 month ago)

I hope zogby is wrong. he has been right on the money the last few elections. maybe his personal views are finally interfering with his logic.


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America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure"

We have "reckless fiscal policies"

America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership.

Americans deserve better

Barack Obama


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OfflineRoseM
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Re: Zogby on the Daily Show: Kerry will take it [Re: lonestar2004]
    #3293560 - 10/29/04 01:58 PM (12 years, 1 month ago)

He said Bush'd win electorals in 2000. He said Bush'd take Florida in 2000. I think he said Gore'd win the popular vote in 2000.

Zogby got it right last time. That's amazing.

I wonder if he'll even be close this time.


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Fiddlesticks.



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OfflineWorf
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Re: Zogby on the Daily Show: Kerry will take it [Re: GnuBobo]
    #3293840 - 10/29/04 03:26 PM (12 years, 1 month ago)

If I were to bet say $500 dollars on who would win the election, I'd have to put it on Bush. I just have a funny feeling about it. The same funny feeling I had when Bush beat Gore.


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