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Anonymous

bush ahead according to bookies.
    #3262532 - 10/21/04 11:23 PM (12 years, 5 months ago)

"...At the current odds offered at Tradesports.com ? a Dublin-based online trading exchange for politics, economics and sports ? Bush has a 58 percent chance of wining the White House this November, while Kerry has a 42 percent chance.

?The odds on our site react to the latest news event immediately, and so in terms of the reliability of our election data we think we are way ahead of the opinion polls which only tend to survey a few thousand people,? said Mike Knesevitch, a spokesperson for Tradesports.com.

Liquidity is the key to the accuracy of betting sites like Tradesports.com, according to Leighton Vaughan Williams, director of the Betting Research Unit at Britain's Nottingham Trent University who has studied how well efficient betting markets predict outcomes of events such as elections."

http://www.newsletters.newsweek.msnbc.com/id/6281086/

latest polls:

http://www.pollingreport2.com/


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Invisiblesilversoul7
Chill the FuckOut!
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Registered: 10/10/02
Posts: 27,301
Loc: mndfreeze's puppet army
Re: bush ahead according to bookies. [Re: ]
    #3262546 - 10/21/04 11:25 PM (12 years, 5 months ago)

I bet my left nut that whoever's elected will increase the size and scope of government.


--------------------


"It is dangerous to be right when the government is wrong."--Voltaire


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Anonymous

Re: bush ahead according to bookies. [Re: silversoul7]
    #3262556 - 10/21/04 11:27 PM (12 years, 5 months ago)

yes. but kerry will be worse.


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Invisiblevampirism
Stranger
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Registered: 03/14/04
Posts: 8,120
Re: bush ahead according to bookies. [Re: ]
    #3262574 - 10/21/04 11:30 PM (12 years, 5 months ago)

proof?


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Anonymous

Re: bush ahead according to bookies. [Re: vampirism]
    #3262704 - 10/21/04 11:49 PM (12 years, 5 months ago)

a kerry vs. bush thread would be good. i don't think there's been one yet and maybe that's why recent threads have been getting derailed onto that subject.

the point of this thread is just an election update with a new twist. it's no secret that betting-type markets based on future events are great at making predictions (anyone remember that ill-fated pentagon proposal to use this to predict terrorist attacks?). there are many people out there who believe that gambling markets are actually more efficient at predicting outcomes than polls are.

11 days before the election, most polls show kerry lagging behing. bookies are saying the same thing.


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InvisibleVvellum
Stranger

Registered: 05/24/04
Posts: 10,920
Re: bush ahead according to bookies. [Re: ]
    #3262809 - 10/22/04 12:12 AM (12 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

the point of this thread is just an election update with a new twist. it's no secret that betting-type markets based on future events are great at making predictions (anyone remember that ill-fated pentagon proposal to use this to predict terrorist attacks?). there are many people out there who believe that gambling markets are actually more efficient at predicting outcomes than polls are.




yeah, and "bookies" and gambling markets also thought boston would never come back against the yankees after being down 3 games 0 much less actually win the series (which has never happened before).


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OfflinePhred
Fred's son
Male

Registered: 10/19/00
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Last seen: 2 years, 2 months
Re: bush ahead according to bookies. [Re: ]
    #3262851 - 10/22/04 12:21 AM (12 years, 5 months ago)

Yeah, you can buy a contract on either of them. I believe a few hours back, you had to pay 61 bucks on a contract for Bush (with payout of 100 bucks) and 40 for one on Kerry (with payout of 100 bucks).

RealClearPolitics has had that contract info up for months. It's interesting to track the prices back over time. Bush has been ahead pretty much the whole time.

But as bi0 says, upsets happen. The Sox won. It's still possible Kerry will win. If he does, the payout on his contract looks attractive at a price of just 40 beans.


pinky


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Anonymous

Re: bush ahead according to bookies. [Re: Vvellum]
    #3262916 - 10/22/04 12:35 AM (12 years, 5 months ago)

what do you think the odds are? wanna make a wager?


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Invisiblez@z.com
Libertarian
Registered: 10/13/02
Posts: 2,876
Loc: ATL
Re: bush ahead according to bookies. [Re: silversoul7]
    #3263049 - 10/22/04 01:04 AM (12 years, 5 months ago)

Quote:

silversoul7 said:
I bet my left nut that whoever's elected will increase the size and scope of government.



I'll see your left nut and raise you a right nut.


--------------------
"Of all tyrannies, a tyranny exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It may be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end, for they do so with the approval of their own conscience." - C.S. Lewis

"I would rather be exposed to the inconveniencies attending too much liberty than to those attending too small a degree of it." - Thomas Jefferson


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Offlinelonestar2004
Live to party,work to affordit.
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Registered: 10/03/04
Posts: 8,978
Loc: South Texas
Last seen: 5 years, 11 months
Re: bush ahead according to bookies. [Re: z@z.com]
    #3263926 - 10/22/04 10:32 AM (12 years, 5 months ago)

hey mushmaster is Bush going to take your homestate Pennsylvania? its over if he takes it.


--------------------
America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure"

We have "reckless fiscal policies"

America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership.

Americans deserve better

Barack Obama


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