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OfflinePhred
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Teens for Bush
    #3260441 - 10/21/04 12:36 PM (19 years, 4 months ago)

I've pointed out in this forum before how those in the 18-30 age bracket are overwhelmingly in favor of Bush. As a matter of fact, it's the age bracket in which his edge over Kerry is highest. Not even the over-60 crowd beats it. Many pundits believe the explanation for this is that younger people today are as a whole more cynical than the older crowd with a more keenly developed bullshit detection system. Kerry obviously would suffer if this is the case. The younger crowd are also more likely to be internet afficianados, and therefore less influenced by the rabidly partisan legacy media organs. Again, Kerry suffers when the influence of his shills in the Mainstream Press is reduced.

Here's something you won't see in the Mainstream Media -- http://www.channelone.com/election_2004/results/

Every morning in thousands of schools across the country, teenagers watch the news on Channel One. In election years, Channel One holds mock elections, and for the two previous presidential elections their results predicted the national outcome.

The mock election was held this week?and the results are in. President Bush won by a large margin, with 393 electoral votes to Kerry?s 145. Over 1.4 million teenagers voted, nationwide.

It's interesting to see how many opted for third party candidates -- Georgia is the lowest at 3.2%. Most states have at least double that amount, and Alaska and Hawaii are over 10%. If only those figures are repeated in the real election!

pinky


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OfflineRoseM
Devil's Advocate
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Registered: 09/24/03
Posts: 22,518
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Re: Teens for Bush [Re: Phred]
    #3260450 - 10/21/04 12:39 PM (19 years, 4 months ago)

Student polls are often very close to the actual outcome.

I guess a lot of kids vote like ther parents.


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Fiddlesticks.


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Invisibleretread
-=HasH=-
Registered: 07/14/04
Posts: 851
Re: Teens for Bush [Re: Rose]
    #3260565 - 10/21/04 01:55 PM (19 years, 4 months ago)

A lot of kids aren't liberal pussies, I'd say!

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OfflineRoseM
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Posts: 22,518
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Re: Teens for Bush [Re: retread]
    #3260581 - 10/21/04 02:01 PM (19 years, 4 months ago)

Either that, or a lot of kids don't know their politics. :wink:


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Fiddlesticks.


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InvisibleAnnapurna1
liberal pussy
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Registered: 05/21/02
Posts: 5,646
Loc: innsmouth..MA
Re: Teens for Bush [Re: Phred]
    #3260590 - 10/21/04 02:03 PM (19 years, 4 months ago)

first of all..if thats so..its definitely not because of a "keenly developed bullshit detection system"...george is the king of bullshit..and even what us libbys like to call the "corporate media" couldnt completely ignore it...my hunch is that for whatever reasons..they have bought into the neocon ideology lox..stock..&bagel...they simply dont care if bush is lying or not.. their voting for him anyway...

second of all..another teen poll produced the opposite result ..

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicsele...htm?POE=NEWISVA

unfortunately..bush will still win...but channel one sounds alot like kiddie faux news...EDIT ..or maybe they agree with the ayatollah...


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"anchor blocks counteract the process of pontiprobation..while omalean globes regulize the pressure"...

Edited by Annapurna1 (10/21/04 02:05 PM)

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Anonymous

Re: Teens for Bush [Re: Annapurna1]
    #3260596 - 10/21/04 02:06 PM (19 years, 4 months ago)

"John Kerry is the preferred candidate by kids who voted on Nickelodeon's Web site."

:rotfl:

:thumbup:

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InvisibleAnnapurna1
liberal pussy
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Registered: 05/21/02
Posts: 5,646
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Re: Teens for Bush [Re: ]
    #3260636 - 10/21/04 02:19 PM (19 years, 4 months ago)

you forgot to read the next sentance ..

Quote:

the vote on Nickelodeon's Web site has correctly chosen the president of the United States in the past four elections.




however..i agree not this time...

and channel one does have a deciedely conservative bias...EDIT ..and why isnt channel one in USA today..which i dont consider to be particularly "liberal"??...


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"anchor blocks counteract the process of pontiprobation..while omalean globes regulize the pressure"...

Edited by Annapurna1 (10/21/04 02:37 PM)

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InvisibleStein
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Registered: 07/02/03
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Re: Teens for Bush [Re: Phred]
    #3260694 - 10/21/04 02:34 PM (19 years, 4 months ago)

Excellent

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Invisiblez@z.com
Libertarian
Registered: 10/13/02
Posts: 2,876
Loc: ATL
Re: Teens for Bush [Re: Annapurna1]
    #3260803 - 10/21/04 03:09 PM (19 years, 4 months ago)

Sometimes I watch Nickelodeon with my little sister. Rarely will you see a more liberal slant than on that station.


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"Of all tyrannies, a tyranny exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It may be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end, for they do so with the approval of their own conscience." - C.S. Lewis

"I would rather be exposed to the inconveniencies attending too much liberty than to those attending too small a degree of it." - Thomas Jefferson

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OfflineRoseM
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Re: Teens for Bush [Re: z@z.com]
    #3260825 - 10/21/04 03:14 PM (19 years, 4 months ago)

Yeah... that Spongebob's just another Massachusetts Liberal. Tax and spend... tax and spend.


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Fiddlesticks.


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Invisiblez@z.com
Libertarian
Registered: 10/13/02
Posts: 2,876
Loc: ATL
Re: Teens for Bush [Re: Rose]
    #3260841 - 10/21/04 03:19 PM (19 years, 4 months ago)

Quote:

Cervantes said:
Yeah... that Spongebob's just another Massachusetts Liberal. Tax and spend... tax and spend.



They have a kids news show and several other shows like it.


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"Of all tyrannies, a tyranny exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It may be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end, for they do so with the approval of their own conscience." - C.S. Lewis

"I would rather be exposed to the inconveniencies attending too much liberty than to those attending too small a degree of it." - Thomas Jefferson

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OfflineRoseM
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Re: Teens for Bush [Re: z@z.com]
    #3260865 - 10/21/04 03:24 PM (19 years, 4 months ago)

OMG, so for kids, Nick = CNN and Channel 1 = Fox!

Crazy!


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Fiddlesticks.


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OfflineAaronEvil
The GuitarVillain
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Registered: 09/27/04
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Re: Teens for Bush [Re: ]
    #3260872 - 10/21/04 03:26 PM (19 years, 4 months ago)

Quote:

mushmaster said:
"John Kerry is the preferred candidate by kids who voted on Nickelodeon's Web site."

:rotfl:

:thumbup:




Yeah, but nickelodeon viewers generally are not old enough to vote.


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There is not a lot of difference between a fox hole and a grave; but knowing that you dug your ditch and climbed in anyway.

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InvisibletrendalM
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Re: Teens for Bush [Re: AaronEvil]
    #3260891 - 10/21/04 03:32 PM (19 years, 4 months ago)

Neither are most Channel One viewers :wink:


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Once, men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free.
But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.

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Invisible1stimer
Religion=Rape
Registered: 11/18/01
Posts: 1,280
Loc: Amerika
Re: Teens for Bush [Re: retread]
    #3260922 - 10/21/04 03:39 PM (19 years, 4 months ago)

Quote:

A lot of kids aren't liberal pussies, I'd say!



I agree. Conservatives are the pussies.


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ash dingy donker mo gollyhopper patty popiton rockstop bueno mayo riggedy jig bobber johnathan pattywhacker gogboob t-shirt monkey.

There is such emotion in the distortion.

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Offlinenycomyco
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Registered: 11/13/03
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Loc: PA
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Re: Teens for Bush [Re: Phred]
    #3261024 - 10/21/04 04:00 PM (19 years, 4 months ago)

how was this election held anyway?

Annapurna, why have you given up so easily? polls? voting systems? polls are all over the place, with many including Pew reporting a deadlock. And polls aren't as good at predicting electoral votes. Is predicting an undesirable "inevitability" your defense mechanism? Remember what our president said- the best defense is a good offense. Voting and speaking out is our offense (and it's not a criminal offense yet, so exercise it before it is!)
T

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Offlinenycomyco
Stranger

Registered: 11/13/03
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Loc: PA
Last seen: 7 months, 29 days
Re: Teens for Bush [Re: retread]
    #3261087 - 10/21/04 04:17 PM (19 years, 4 months ago)

Did these non-pussy voters send absentee ballots to channelone from Iraq?

Since when is being a liberal being a pussy? Why not step back off your swollen dick and look at what's happening in the world, then tell me that disagreeing with the government is being a pussy.
BUT, there is some truth to what you said- Most Democratic POLITICIANS are too pussyish for my taste. Then again the taste of the worst pussy isn't nearly as bad as the taste of blood.
I'm leaving this all-kinds-of open for TEAM AMERICA references.

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InvisibleKingOftheThing
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Re: Teens for Bush [Re: nycomyco]
    #3261111 - 10/21/04 04:22 PM (19 years, 4 months ago)

id ignore retard....he is a puppet of another guy.....he will commit suicide if bush loses

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OfflinePhred
Fred's son
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Registered: 10/18/00
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Re: Teens for Bush [Re: Phred]
    #3261257 - 10/21/04 04:55 PM (19 years, 4 months ago)

Meh. Kids who read vote Bush http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/041020/nyw076_1.html , kids who watch cartoon shows vote Kerry. I don't have a TV so I may be wrong about this, but isn't Nickelodeon a cable cartoon network?

None of the three kid's polls mean much, since only a few of the ones surveyed are old enough to vote anyway. Of the three, the one I linked is the only one restricted to teenagers, but I doubt a thirteen year old is much more politically savvy than a twelve year old. It was just an interesting tidbit I came across. I'd say the preferences of American teens should be given weight over the preferences of people from other countries (who apparently overwhelmingly prefer Kerry), but since only a few of them will be casting votes in the actual election, it's a moot point.


pinky


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InvisibleAnnapurna1
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Re: Teens for Bush [Re: nycomyco]
    #3262283 - 10/21/04 08:39 PM (19 years, 4 months ago)

Quote:

nycomyco said:
how was this election held anyway?

Annapurna, why have you given up so easily? polls? voting systems? polls are all over the place, with many including Pew reporting a deadlock. And polls aren't as good at predicting electoral votes. Is predicting an undesirable "inevitability" your defense mechanism? Remember what our president said- the best defense is a good offense. Voting and speaking out is our offense (and it's not a criminal offense yet, so exercise it before it is!)
T




gumpersons' law...


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"anchor blocks counteract the process of pontiprobation..while omalean globes regulize the pressure"...

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OfflineEchoVortex
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Registered: 02/06/02
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Re: Teens for Bush [Re: Phred]
    #3263308 - 10/22/04 12:27 AM (19 years, 4 months ago)

I've pointed out in this forum before how those in the 18-30 age bracket are overwhelmingly in favor of Bush.  

Source?

For your information, the poll you referenced is one of high school students, not 18-30 year-olds.

Many pundits believe the explanation for this is that younger people today are as a whole more cynical than the older crowd with a more keenly developed bullshit detection system. Kerry obviously would suffer if this is the case.

Which pundits?  Are you trying to imply that Bush doesn't shovel any bullshit for people to detect?  If that's the case your own bullshit detector is defective or non-existent.

The younger crowd are also more likely to be internet afficianados, and therefore less influenced by the rabidly partisan legacy media organs. Again, Kerry suffers when the influence of his shills in the Mainstream Press is reduced.

Actually, Internet-savvy voters are far more likely to lean Democratic than Republican.  Every Internet insta-poll had Kerry and Edwards winning their debates by huge margins, far greater than those of the telephone polls.  The Kerry campaign is using the Internet far more aggressively than the Bush campaign is--I know, I'm on the mailing list for both campaigns.

As far as the Channel One poll goes, I have one thing to say:  it has Bush winning Vermont and Illinois!

:rotfl:

Kerry is over ten points ahead of Bush in both of these states in the current polling, and Gore won both by wide margins in the last election.  They're not even in competition at this point.  There's obviously something very skewed about that poll.  It might have something to do with the fact that schools which allow Channel One (and its 10:2 news:advertising ratio) into their classrooms tend to be in more conservative school districts.  Channel One has been resisted by more liberal school districts ever since it was introduced:

http://www.commercialalert.org/index.php?category_id=2&subcategory_id=32&article_id=120

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Offlinequarkyquasar
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Registered: 07/20/03
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Re: Teens for Bush [Re: EchoVortex]
    #3263357 - 10/22/04 12:50 AM (19 years, 4 months ago)

I really liked that response echovortex.
Makes alot of sense to ignorant liberals like me.
Thanks

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OfflinePhred
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Re: Teens for Bush [Re: EchoVortex]
    #3263361 - 10/22/04 12:52 AM (19 years, 4 months ago)

EchoVortex writes:

For your information, the poll you referenced is one of high school students, not 18-30 year-olds.

I am aware of that. The poll showing Bush support by age was a different one. It's in one of the threads posted in the last month. Shit -- might have been one of the ones that got deleted when we lost an entire week of posts, though. I'll check it out later.

Are you trying to imply that Bush doesn't shovel any bullshit for people to detect?

All politicians shovel some. Comes with the territory. It's just that Kerry's is so blatant and so easily detectable. On top of that, Kerry is the quintessential poser. The young are not only pretty sharp at picking up on posers, they're also pretty disdainful of them.

Every Internet insta-poll had Kerry and Edwards winning their debates by huge margins, far greater than those of the telephone polls.

LOL! Gee, that's a big surprise when you consider the DNC's co-ordinated drive to get Kerry supporters to stuff those polls. There were also many reports of people sending in form e-mails to newspapers oohing and aahing over how well Kerry performed -- several hours before the debates aired. Some of those internet polls showed Kerry with an edge as high as 88 per cent -- within half an hour of the end of the second and third debates. In every single case, the numbers dropped as time went on.

I find it amusing to find you of all people using internet polls to make some kind of point. You were the one railing on and on about how the polls in Iraq were meaningless because they were done face to face rather than over the phone. Yet completely unscientific internet polls with no restriction on how many times a single person can respond somehow become meaningful if they show your favored candidate on top? uh huh.

pinky


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OfflineMalachi
stereotype

Registered: 06/19/02
Posts: 1,294
Loc: Around Minneapolis.
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Re: Teens for Bush [Re: Phred]
    #3263394 - 10/22/04 01:18 AM (19 years, 4 months ago)



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The ultimate meaning of our being can only be fulfilled in the paradoxical leap beyond the tragic-demonic frustration. It is a leap from our side, but it is the self-surrendering presence of the Ground of Being from the other side.
- Paul Tillich

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OfflineEchoVortex
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Re: Teens for Bush [Re: Phred]
    #3263401 - 10/22/04 01:21 AM (19 years, 4 months ago)

am aware of that. The poll showing Bush support by age was a different one. It's in one of the threads posted in the last month. Shit -- might have been one of the ones that got deleted when we lost an entire week of posts, though. I'll check it out later.

Don't bother: the most recent poll not only shows that Bush doesn't hold an "overwhelming" advantage among 18-30s--rather, exactly the opposite:

Among all likely voters, President Bush maintains a slight lead over Kerry, 51 percent to 46 percent, in the latest ABC News tracking poll, the same as it's been the past two days. But Kerry has a sizable 57 percent to 38 percent lead among young voters, age 18 to 29.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/story?id=186261

So what was that you were saying about young peoples' bullshit detectors?

I find it amusing to find you of all people using internet polls to make some kind of point. You were the one railing on and on about how the polls in Iraq were meaningless because they were done face to face rather than over the phone. Yet completely unscientific internet polls with no restriction on how many times a single person can respond somehow become meaningful if they show your favored candidate on top? uh huh.

As usual, you don't get it. My point was NOT that those Internet insta-polls are representative of the actual state of opinion about the debates across the country. My point was that the DISPARITY between the Internet and telephone polls suggest that Democratic-leaning voters are a larger and more active presence on the Internet than Republican-leaning voters. There was absolutely nothing stopping Republican voters from getting on the net after the debates and voting for their candidate, nothing at all--except their own inability to do so or their ignorance that the polls even existed.

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OfflinePhred
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Re: Teens for Bush [Re: EchoVortex]
    #3264004 - 10/22/04 09:08 AM (19 years, 4 months ago)

I've seen several polls about Bush's advantage with the 18-29 age group. I honestly can't remember now which one I posted, but yours is the first I've seen showing Kerry with any edge at all over Bush with that age group, much less with a 19 point edge. Gallup and ABC/WaPo less than four weeks ago had Bush's edge in that age group as 12 points. A 31 point swing in less than four weeks is unprecedented.

Here's http://powerlineblog.com/archives/007983.php a breakdown of the Gallup and ABC/Wapo polls from September 27 --

Quote:

Younger voters, 18-30, have lower levels of unfavorable ratings than all other age groups toward Bush (33%, compared to 52% favorable). They support Bush over Kerry by the widest margin of any age cohort (53-41).

For people 18-30 (regarding Bush): Approve somewhat+approve strongly= 54. Disapprove somewhat+disapprove strongly=39.

John Kerry's lowest favorable rating comes from 18-30 year olds (33%).

Young people are the most satisfied (58-41) with the way things are going of any age group (overall, it is 49-49).

Young people trust Bush over Kerry by the widest margins of any age group (60-33).

Same with terrorism (59-35).

Same with "Strong leader" (65-25).

Same with "make the country more safe and secure" (60-31).

Same with "qualified to be commander in chief" (60-37).




My point was NOT that those Internet insta-polls are representative of the actual state of opinion about the debates across the country. My point was that the DISPARITY between the Internet and telephone polls suggest that Democratic-leaning voters are a larger and more active presence on the Internet than Republican-leaning voters.

That's one possibility, yes. A couple more likely explanations would be:

-- Dems are more likely to cheat on those polls, especially when urged to do so by the vigorous DNC post-debate ballot-stuffing e-mail campaign. I can think of no other explanation for the ludicrous 88% number Kerry had in the first half hour after debate two ended, for example.

-- To point out the obvious, there is no way of knowing how many of those who respond to the polls you mentioned are even Americans, much less Americans in the 18-30 year old range. I recall reading more than a few posts in this forum crowing over how if everyone in the world (or at least everyone in a group of thirty-five countries) were allowed to vote, Kerry would get around ninety per cent of the vote. Do you believe that only Americans vote in CNN's online polls? MSNBC's? I can verify that these polls make no attempt to determine even the country of origin of the person clicking the button, much less the person's eligibility to vote in a US election, much less the age of that person. They've accepted my input without question every time I tried one (which admittedly is not all that often).

Back to the polls which were actually done scientifically -- there is no way in the world there would be a thirty-one point swing in less than four weeks absent a paradigm-changing event on the order of the 9-11 attacks. (and no, Bush's performance in the first debate doesn't count as such an event). It is quite clear that at least one of those polls is seriously flawed. Maybe all of them are.

It will be interesting to see the post-election breakdowns by age group.

pinky


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InvisibleAntiMeme
yankee doodledandy
Registered: 08/11/04
Posts: 208
Re: Teens for Bush [Re: Phred]
    #3264204 - 10/22/04 10:20 AM (19 years, 4 months ago)

It's a disturbing, but not very surprising trend. Self interest will always champion self sacrifice, at least in the current culturual climate.

Another thing I've noticed lately is how geeks seem to go for Libertarianism. My limited 'analysis' is that social isolation breeds anti-social thought.


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InvisibleAnnapurna1
liberal pussy
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Re: Teens for Bush [Re: AntiMeme]
    #3264224 - 10/22/04 10:27 AM (19 years, 4 months ago)

^ and how is it in your self-interest to vote for someone who wants to cut off your personal freedoms.. send your job to india.. and send you to iraq??...


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"anchor blocks counteract the process of pontiprobation..while omalean globes regulize the pressure"...

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InvisibleAntiMeme
yankee doodledandy
Registered: 08/11/04
Posts: 208
Re: Teens for Bush [Re: Annapurna1]
    #3264238 - 10/22/04 10:31 AM (19 years, 4 months ago)

Who needs personal freedoms if you're not the one being targetted by unjust laws? What does it matter if menial tech jobs for the working class is outsorced? Who cares if poor motherfuckers who want to go to college is killed in Iraq?


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OfflineGazzBut
Refraction

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Re: Teens for Bush [Re: Phred]
    #3264256 - 10/22/04 10:37 AM (19 years, 4 months ago)

I dont know for sure but I bet that you wont find any other countries in the world where people in the 18-30 bracket would support an extreme moron like bush... says alot about the media manipulation in the US. must be that old liberal bias eh?


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Always Smi2le

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InvisibleVvellum
Stranger

Registered: 05/24/04
Posts: 10,920
Re: Teens for Bush [Re: Phred]
    #3264257 - 10/22/04 10:37 AM (19 years, 4 months ago)

Quote:

As far as the Channel One poll goes, I have one thing to say: it has Bush winning Vermont and Illinois!




any "poll" or "mock election" that has Illinois and Vermont going to George Bush is incredibly inaccurate - the only indictation that such a poll provides is the poll means nothing. I cant believe you swallowed this bullshit, but then again I can.

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OfflinePhred
Fred's son
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Re: Teens for Bush [Re: Vvellum]
    #3264287 - 10/22/04 10:48 AM (19 years, 4 months ago)

I haven't swallowed anything. I just find it interesting that the under thirty crowd constitutes Bush's strongest age demographic, with the glaring exception of the poll EchoVortex links. Obviously, the political opinion of American teenagers (with the exception of eighteen and nineteen year olds who choose to vote) has as little bearing on the outcome of the election as do the opinions of Englishmen or Frenchmen.

I found it interesting. Nothing more, nothing less. Hell, I'd vote for Badnarik, myself. And as I pointed out in my very first post, what I found the most interesting about the channel one poll was the very high percentage of kids who voted third party.

pinky


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InvisibleVvellum
Stranger

Registered: 05/24/04
Posts: 10,920
Re: Teens for Bush [Re: Phred]
    #3264302 - 10/22/04 10:55 AM (19 years, 4 months ago)

Quote:

I just find it interesting that the under thirty crowd constitutes Bush's strongest age demographic, with the glaring exception of the poll EchoVortex links.




You obviously are not familiar with the Channel One racket. Well, I am. The schools I attended had deals with Channel One to show their "programming" during homeroom each day for exchange for televisions - their "programming" was mostly Mountain Dew commericals, of course. I'm going to let you in on a secret - nobody actually gave a shit about Channel One - in all of my 8 years being programmed by Channel One, nobody paid attention. In fact, it was more of nuisance than anything. It wasnt unusual for Channel One to be played on mute - or simply not turned on at - often at the request of the students themselves.

If you really think that a majority of the people who voted in this "mock election" took it seriously, then you're are truly out of touch.

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Invisibleafoaf
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Re: Teens for Bush [Re: Phred]
    #3264363 - 10/22/04 11:15 AM (19 years, 4 months ago)

my guess is that teenagers are more likely to be jaded
by all the indoctrination and less likely to be critical of
their government.

only a fraction of the voters in this mock election fit into
the 18-30 bracket.


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All I know is The Growery is a place where losers who get banned here go.

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OfflineRoseM
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Re: Teens for Bush [Re: afoaf]
    #3264375 - 10/22/04 11:19 AM (19 years, 4 months ago)

18-30 is traditionally MUCH more liberal than 30-40.


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Fiddlesticks.


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Invisible1stimer
Religion=Rape
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Re: Teens for Bush [Re: Rose]
    #3264386 - 10/22/04 11:21 AM (19 years, 4 months ago)

18-30 is way to big of an age gap to group together into a statistical reference. 18 year olds are much different than 30 year olds.


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ash dingy donker mo gollyhopper patty popiton rockstop bueno mayo riggedy jig bobber johnathan pattywhacker gogboob t-shirt monkey.

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OfflinePhred
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Re: Teens for Bush [Re: Vvellum]
    #3264390 - 10/22/04 11:22 AM (19 years, 4 months ago)

If Channel One is as you describe, and the reaction of the kids forced to endure it is as you describe, clearly the kids voting didn't get their political opinions from Channel One.

A lot of them may have just voted at random, sure. That can be said of any poll. I have no doubt that some of the younger folks polled by Gallup -- folks interrupted in the middle of a bong hit by the telephone who decided to fuck around with a pollster for laughs, for example -- have given responses they have no intention of following up in the real world. I did that myself three decades ago to some pollster for the Canadian government who took up around fifteen minutes of my time with a seemingly endless list of multiple choice questions. She must have been scratching her head at the pattern of my answers, but she was polite. Damned if I can even remember what the poll covered. I just remember I was shining her on for pretty much the whole thing.

Again, I don't use that poll as any kind of indicator how the election will turn out. But a sample size of 1.4 million is roughly one and a half thousand times larger than the typical election poll done by Zogby, Gallup, ABC/WaPo, Rasmussen, and others. Hell, I've seen poll results listed in this forum where the sample group consisted of less than 600 people! So even if the result of the poll is meaningless in terms of votes cast November 2 (since few Channel One respondents are of voting age), it can't be dismissed out of hand for faulty methodology.

I don't expect it to alter you vote or anything.


pinky


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OfflineRoseM
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Re: Teens for Bush [Re: 1stimer]
    #3264392 - 10/22/04 11:22 AM (19 years, 4 months ago)

18-30... They are all considered young adults, in pollitical polls and telivision ratings.

If Neilsen says it, it must be true.


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InvisibleVvellum
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Re: Teens for Bush [Re: Phred]
    #3264397 - 10/22/04 11:24 AM (19 years, 4 months ago)

then why is it so interesting? All I see is a faulty poll that has no bearing on reality.

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Invisibleafoaf
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Re: Teens for Bush [Re: Rose]
    #3264408 - 10/22/04 11:28 AM (19 years, 4 months ago)

being liberal and trusting their government are not mutually exclusive.


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OfflineRoseM
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Re: Teens for Bush [Re: afoaf]
    #3264411 - 10/22/04 11:29 AM (19 years, 4 months ago)

Fair,

But... the 18-30's tend to vote Democrat, in every election but landslides.


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OfflineEchoVortex
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Re: Teens for Bush [Re: Phred]
    #3266554 - 10/22/04 11:51 PM (19 years, 4 months ago)

I checked your link.  The guy doesn't know what he's talking about.

Here's what he writes:

UPDATE:  Reader Will Franklin links to the Post's site and notes that "It has a neat feature where you can crosstab the polls to age and other factors."  I'll take his word for it, since I can't make it work.

Well, it is impossible to know exactly what the poll said when Will Franklin checked it since it's a tracking poll and the results are continuously updated, but here is what the same Post poll said today:

                            18-30

Bush/Cheney      35%
Kerry/Edwards    60%

You can see it for yourself: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/polls/2004293/q3_lean/age/index.html

Kerry has an overwhelming 25% lead among young voters, and I can't imagine that his numbers would have changed that much since Will Franklin checked them on Sept. 27th.  Either Will can't read charts or he's making stuff up.

-- Dems are more likely to cheat on those polls, especially when urged to do so by the vigorous DNC post-debate ballot-stuffing e-mail campaign. I can think of no other explanation for the ludicrous 88% number Kerry had in the first half hour after debate two ended, for example.

Dems are more likely to cheat on those polls?  Well thanks for that totally baseless bit of bullshit conjecture.  The owner of Diebold voting machines tells Bush that he's going to deliver him the election, Republican organizers make up a bogus marijuana legalization petition and then use it to register college students against their will as Republicans, and you assume that it's DEMs who are more likely to cheat! :lol:

I'm on the mailing list for both campaigns and BOTH campaigns asked people to vote on the online polls.  Neither of them told people to "vote early and often."

-- To point out the obvious, there is no way of knowing how many of those who respond to the polls you mentioned are even Americans, much less Americans in the 18-30 year old range. I recall reading more than a few posts in this forum crowing over how if everyone in the world (or at least everyone in a group of thirty-five countries) were allowed to vote, Kerry would get around ninety per cent of the vote. Do you believe that only Americans vote in CNN's online polls? MSNBC's? I can verify that these polls make no attempt to determine even the country of origin of the person clicking the button, much less the person's eligibility to vote in a US election, much less the age of that person. They've accepted my input without question every time I tried one (which admittedly is not all that often).

Now THAT, finally, is a valid point.  I was hoping you would make at least one in the course of this discussion. 

Back to the polls which were actually done scientifically -- there is no way in the world there would be a thirty-one point swing in less than four weeks absent a paradigm-changing event on the order of the 9-11 attacks. (and no, Bush's performance in the first debate doesn't count as such an event). It is quite clear that at least one of those polls is seriously flawed. Maybe all of them are.

It will be interesting to see the post-election breakdowns by age group.


ALL of the poll results I've seen with my own eyes show Kerry with a huge lead over Bush among 18-30 voters, and have for a long time.  Perhaps the hearsay you read on right-wing sites says differently, but that's neither here nor there.

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Invisibleafoaf
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Re: Teens for Bush [Re: Rose]
    #3267336 - 10/23/04 09:58 AM (19 years, 4 months ago)

my point is that usually only high school seniors, and even then,
only a fraction of those seniors fall into the 18-30 so the trend
of dem votes is only slightly applicable.

high school freshman, sophmores and juniors are much younger,
probably only slightly informed about politics and fresh off the
public school's indoctrincation chain, so it seems they'd be less
likely to be critical of the government and potentially more likely
to vote for an encumbant, especially in this political atmosphere
of war and fear.


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OfflinePhred
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Re: Teens for Bush [Re: EchoVortex]
    #3267549 - 10/23/04 11:23 AM (19 years, 4 months ago)

You are correct that the links at the captainsquarters blog no longer show the results they did earlier. Apparently, both links have been updated with newer data since the post was made.

And, as you know already, unless you pay bucks to Gallup, you can't access all their archived polls. Still, there's this --

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=40698 Sept 29 2004

It mentions the same Sept 27 ABC-Wapo poll --

Quote:

In fact, the latest Washington Post-ABC poll shows George W. Bush holding a 53-41 percent lead among those aged 18 to 30, the highest level of support for Bush among any age group.




That's two mentions from different sources quoting exactly the same figures from exactly the same poll which was available for all the world to see at the time the articles were written. If you believe both those guys were lying -- especially when they could be fact checked by anyone -- then there is no help for you. If you care to spend some money, you can check it on Gallup as well. I'd pay for the subscription and do the cut and paste myself, but you'd probably only accuse me of cooking the figures too.

Here's something from commondreams -- and if anyone thinks commondreams is a Bush-supporting website they need to get off the crack pipe. I can think of few more leftist websites out there than commondreams. http://www.commondreams.org/headlines03/1019-08.htm October 18 2004

Quote:

Similar trends have been reported this fall by the Pew Research Center. The latest Gallup Poll, released this week, showed that even as Mr. Bush's overall approval rating had risen to 56 percent from 50 percent during the past month, voters older than 65 remained his weakest age group. Forty-nine percent of them approved of the job he was doing, compared with 60 percent of those 30 to 49.




Being a lefty site, they only emphasize how Bush is slipping rather than listing all the internals of the poll they are summarizing. But if they say his approval rating is lowest in the over-65 group at 49%, then logically for the under thirty group it must be at least 50%. This is a far cry from the numbers your link shows. And yes, I recognize the difference between "approval" and "will vote for". But it still shows under thirties approve of Bush.

Here's something from yet another lefty site -- http://www.progressivetrail.org/articles/031124Ireland.shtml Oct 23 2004

Quote:

You might ask, 'Won't bringing new voters into the process make a difference?' 'Won't the youth voter registration by Rock the Vote, MoveOn, and the new Norman Lear/Drew Barrymore campaign add tons of new anti-Bush voters to the rolls?' Nope. The Harvard University national student survey released last month shows that approval of Bush approaches two-thirds?a finding reinforced by the 62 percent pro-Bush support among the 19-to-24 age group in the Oct. 29 Gallup poll (which also found 61 percent of the young think the Iraq war was "worth it."




Again, not a direct link to the polls captainsquarters was quoting, but it bolsters what those polls said.

Here we have an unfortunate circumstance where links have expired, and there appears to be no easy (or at least no free) way to access those polls. Still, just because you didn't click on those polls back in September to see with your own eyes what they said, to claim out of hand that several different sources who did do just that are either mistaken or lying is desperation on your part. I originally came across them in the Wall Street Journal. All three of those sites (WSJ, captainsquarters, worldnetdaily) get tens to hundreds of thousands of hits daily. They (especially captainsquarters and the WSJ) are meticulous about correcting errors, often within hours, because their readership are demanding and skeptical. The numbers quoted are accurate, whether you can easily verify them today with a click of your mouse or whether you need to go to a library and dig up back issues of the publications themselves.

Now you give us a current poll showing wildly different numbers. As I said before, either your poll or my polls are inaccurate. Perhaps all of them are inaccurate. We'll know in less than two weeks either way.


pinky


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OfflineEchoVortex
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Re: Teens for Bush [Re: Phred]
    #3269808 - 10/23/04 11:41 PM (19 years, 4 months ago)

Uh, sorry to have to break it you, but your links to Common Dreams and Progressive Trail are NOT from 2004 as you write, but from 2003. The Progressive Trail article, which you say is from October 23, 2004, references an October 29 Gallup Poll. Hello? It's not even October 29th yet! Anybody who clicks the links can see with their own eyes the issue dates for those stories.

So it is more than possible that Bush's support among young people has plummeted over the course of the last year.

As far as the worldnetdaily reference goes, hey, who knows, I guess it's possible that the ABC/WPost poll actually gave those figures on Sept 27th and that Bush lost 18 points and Kerry gained 19 points because of the debates.

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InvisibleSwami
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Registered: 01/18/00
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Re: Teens for Bush [Re: Phred]
    #3269917 - 10/24/04 12:16 AM (19 years, 4 months ago)

This generation is the most addicted to the tube ever and are daily spoon-fed B.S.


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The proof is in the pudding.

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OfflineGazzBut
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Re: Teens for Bush [Re: Phred]
    #3323267 - 11/05/04 04:56 AM (19 years, 4 months ago)

According to our good friend Michael Moore: ". The only age group in which the majority voted for Kerry was young adults
(Kerry: 54%, Bush: 44%), proving once again that your parents are always
wrong and you should never listen to them. "


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Always Smi2le

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OfflinePhred
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Re: Teens for Bush [Re: GazzBut]
    #3323437 - 11/05/04 06:58 AM (19 years, 4 months ago)

Michael Moore says so? Then it must be true. *searches for the "sarcasm" tag*


pinky


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InvisibleAntiMeme
yankee doodledandy
Registered: 08/11/04
Posts: 208
Re: Teens for Bush [Re: Phred]
    #3323464 - 11/05/04 07:14 AM (19 years, 4 months ago)

"The Kids did it - our map is true blue":

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/11/4/191246/507

"Luckily for America, old people die."


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OfflineGazzBut
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Re: Teens for Bush [Re: Phred]
    #3326734 - 11/06/04 02:40 AM (19 years, 4 months ago)

Michael Moore said it? Then it must be false.

Note I didnt actually say it was true. But you seem to have decided it must be false based purely on who said it..seems a bit weak minded to me.


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Always Smi2le

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OfflinePhred
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Re: Teens for Bush [Re: GazzBut]
    #3326906 - 11/06/04 06:34 AM (19 years, 4 months ago)

How is it possible to know how the 18-29 age group actually voted, short of post-election telephone polls by Gallup, Zogby et al, or exit polls? We've already seen that the exit polls -- or at least the exit polls splashed all over the web by dupes like the dailykos, wonkette, atrios, democraticunderground and other leftie bloggers -- were at a huge variance with the actual results. Excuse me if I choose to disregard Michael freakin' Moore's numbers.

That said, I really am very interested in finding out the numbers for that demographic. Perhaps in the days to come we can see a breakdown by age from a reputable source. I certainly hope so.


pinky


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