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OfflinePhred
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Kerrynomics
    #3251697 - 10/19/04 03:25 PM (12 years, 1 month ago)

http://www.nationalreview.com/nrof_comment/carter200410131105.asp

368 Economists Against Kerrynomics
The challenger?s policies would bring a lower standard of living for the American people.

By J. Edward Carter & Cesar V. Conda



Leading economists have a message for America: ?John Kerry favors economic policies that, if implemented, would lead to bigger and more intrusive government and a lower standard of living for the American people.?

That was the conclusion released in a statement Wednesday by 368 economists, including six Nobel laureates: Gary Becker, James Buchanan, Milton Friedman, Robert Lucas, Robert Mundell, and ? the winner of this year?s Nobel Prize in Economics ? Edward C. Prescott. The economists warned that Sen. Kerry?s policies ?would, over time, inhibit capital formation, depress productivity growth, and make the United States less competitive internationally. The end result would be lower U.S. employment and real wage growth.?

Consider Kerry?s spending and tax proposals. Kerry claims he wants to balance the federal budget, but as the Washington Post pointed out last August, ?Sen. John F. Kerry?s pledge to reduce record federal budget deficits is colliding with an obstacle that may be growing higher by the week: his own campaign commitments.? In fact, Kerry?s spending proposals would add an estimated $226 billion annually to federal spending. To put this in perspective, $226 billion is roughly equal to the gross domestic products of Greece or Sweden.

Kerry?s oft-repeated budget solution is to raise taxes on ?families making over $200,000 on income earned above $200,000 to their levels under President Clinton.? This proposal would generate hundreds-of-billions of dollars over the next decade for the Treasury?s coffers. Kerry?s other proposed tax increases would generate billions more. Yet, these tax increases would offset only a fraction of Kerry?s new spending.

For instance, Senator Kerry?s government-run health insurance spending plan would by itself require a tax increase of more than $1 trillion. Two independent studies, one by the Lewin Group and another by the American Enterprise Institute, concluded that Kerry?s health insurance proposal would cost more than $1 trillion over the next 10 years. And that?s just one of Kerry?s spending proposals. To close the funding gap between all of his spending and tax promises, Kerry would have to raise taxes by an average of $1,431 for everyone who files an income-tax return.

The stark disconnect between Kerry?s spending and tax proposals is what prompted 368 leading economists to conclude, ?Kerry?s stated desire to balance the budget and to boost federal spending substantially would almost certainly require far higher and broader tax increases than he has proposed.? And given Kerry?s voting record in the Senate ? he has cast 98 votes for tax increases totaling more than $2.3 trillion throughout his legislative career ? that is no idle threat.

It is no secret that John Kerry wants America?s foreign policy to be more like that of Germany and France. But perhaps even more disturbing, he has demonstrated that he wants to emulate their failed tax-and-spend economic policies, too. Over time, the consequences could be devastating. Consider the impact those policies have had on Europe. Germany and France once enjoyed standards of living comparable to those of the United States. Today, U.S. per capita GDP is 38 percent higher than that of Germany and 43 percent higher than that of France. Indeed, as economist Bruce Bartlett recently pointed out, ?On average, Europeans only live about as well as those in the poorest American state, Mississippi.?

The 368 economists only briefly touched upon Kerry?s trade policies. As it happens, there is not much upon which to comment. Kerry has expressed a general reluctance to reduce trade barriers, and he has promised, if elected, to ?review existing trade agreements.? His applause line is that he vows not to ?sign any new trade agreements until the review is complete and its recommendations [are] put in place.? According to the 368 economists, ?That's a prescription for political gridlock. Given the widespread benefits of unfettered trade, Kerry?s trade policies would harm U.S. producers and consumers alike.?

Finally, we have all heard John Kerry denigrate the present rate of job creation. Yet, according to latest Bureau of Labor Statistics employment report, 1.9 million jobs have been created since August 2003. And at 5.4 percent, the unemployment rate is below the average unemployment rates of the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s.

We have also heard Kerry?s solemn vow to create 10 million new jobs during his first term as president. But you probably have not heard that the U.S. economy is likely to create about that many jobs over the next four years under current policy.

During the first nine months of 2004 ? while Kerry was criticizing the pace of employment growth ? payroll employment grew an average of more than 170,000 jobs a month. At that rate, the next administration would preside over the creation of roughly 8.2 million net new jobs. And yet, as Martin Sullivan pointed out in Tax Notes, Kerry has not presented one objective analysis to support his claim that his policies would create 1 million more jobs, much less 10 million more.

John Kerry has adopted the Walter Mondale approach to economics ? increase taxes. Even advocates of Keynesian economics would not recommend raising taxes in the early stages of an economic recovery. Unlike Mondale, however, Kerry will wait until after the election to reveal all of the tax increases that will be required to pay for his government spending promises. Three hundred and sixty eight economists hope American voters will heed their warnings before it is too late.


? J. Edward Carter is an economist in Washington, D.C. Cesar V. Conda, formerly assistant for domestic policy to Vice President Dick Cheney, is a senior fellow at FreedomWorks in Washington, D.C.


pinky


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InvisibleGijith
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Registered: 12/04/03
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Re: Kerrynomics [Re: Phred]
    #3251720 - 10/19/04 03:32 PM (12 years, 1 month ago)

Thanks for putting this up, pinky.

One of the first reasons Kerry lost my vote is because he's clearly not being realistic about his economics plans and I don't want to wait and see which promises turn out to be lies if he's elected.


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Invisiblevampirism
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Re: Kerrynomics [Re: Phred]
    #3251725 - 10/19/04 03:33 PM (12 years, 1 month ago)

there is a harvard group completely against Bushenomics, the 368 and the harvard group were going to hold a debate, I'm not sure when.

Gijith - While yes, Kerry's economic policy makes no sense, Bush's is barely any better.


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Invisibleluvdemshrooms
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Re: Kerrynomics [Re: vampirism]
    #3251745 - 10/19/04 03:38 PM (12 years, 1 month ago)

Barely any better is still better.


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You cannot legislate the poor into prosperity by legislating the wealthy out of prosperity. What one person receives without working for another person must work for without receiving. The government cannot give to anybody anything that the government does not first take from somebody else. When half of the people get the idea that they do not have to work because the other half is going to take care of them and when the other half gets the idea that it does no good to work because somebody else is going to get what they work for that my dear friend is the beginning of the end of any nation. You cannot multiply wealth by dividing it. ~ Adrian Rogers


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OfflinePhred
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Re: Kerrynomics [Re: vampirism]
    #3251779 - 10/19/04 03:47 PM (12 years, 1 month ago)

Morrowind --

Bush's plan -- with the notable exception of his absolutely disastrous socialized medicine "free meds for seniors" medicare revision -- is far better, as even a casual glance of key economic indicators proves. Basically his plan consisted of cutting taxes and getting out of the way. As much as I disagreed with the Clinton presidency, one thing I must credit him with (especially during his first term) was his reluctance to to tinker much with the economy -- Hillarycare (which thankfully died a well-deserved death early on) being the exception.

And to be fair to Bush, even though I firmly believe his "free drugs for the wrinkled" plan was absurdly expensive and entirely unnecessary and will lead to outright socialized medicine in the US within two decades, I must point out it is leagues ahead of Kerry's proposed revival of Hillarycare which would impose socialized medicine immediately and start America's downward spiral to the depths of Europe and Canada's impending bankruptcy. At least Bush's blunder will take a lot longer to implode and there is a slender chance (admittedly very slender) that it may be revoked by Congress at some point in future.

pinky


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InvisibleGijith
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Re: Kerrynomics [Re: vampirism]
    #3251784 - 10/19/04 03:48 PM (12 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

Morrowind said:
Gijith - While yes, Kerry's economic policy makes no sense, Bush's is barely any better.




Right on. The only choice left: third parties.
They have no reason to lie.


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what's with neocons and the word 'ilk'?


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OfflinePhred
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Re: Kerrynomics [Re: Gijith]
    #3251802 - 10/19/04 03:53 PM (12 years, 1 month ago)

Even though I say Bush's plan is far better than Kerry's (because it is) I still urge everyone to vote for Badnarik. His economic plan is the best of them all.


pinky


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OfflineRoseM
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Re: Kerrynomics [Re: Phred]
    #3251819 - 10/19/04 03:57 PM (12 years, 1 month ago)

Has any president put America in debt at the rate Bush has?


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Fiddlesticks.



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OfflinePhred
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Re: Kerrynomics [Re: Rose]
    #3251828 - 10/19/04 04:01 PM (12 years, 1 month ago)

As percentage of GDP? Several.


pinky


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Invisiblesilversoul7
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Re: Kerrynomics [Re: Phred]
    #3252025 - 10/19/04 05:01 PM (12 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

pinksharkmark said:
Leading economists have a message for America: ?John Kerry favors economic policies that, if implemented, would lead to bigger and more intrusive government and a lower standard of living for the American people.?



Exchange "John Kerry" with "every president since FDR" and that sentence would still make sense.


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"It is dangerous to be right when the government is wrong."--Voltaire


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OfflineRoseM
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Re: Kerrynomics [Re: silversoul7]
    #3252055 - 10/19/04 05:11 PM (12 years, 1 month ago)

You're preaching to the choir... Pinky's a Libertarian :wink:


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Fiddlesticks.



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Invisiblesilversoul7
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Re: Kerrynomics [Re: Rose]
    #3252073 - 10/19/04 05:16 PM (12 years, 1 month ago)

No shit, sherlock.


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"It is dangerous to be right when the government is wrong."--Voltaire


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OfflinePhred
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Re: Kerrynomics [Re: silversoul7]
    #3252108 - 10/19/04 05:24 PM (12 years, 1 month ago)

silversoul7 writes:

Exchange "John Kerry" with "every president since FDR" and that sentence would still make sense.

Nope. Not the last part of the sentence. First part, sure.

pinky


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InvisibleAnnapurna1
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Re: Kerrynomics [Re: Phred]
    #3252121 - 10/19/04 05:27 PM (12 years, 1 month ago)

>> The challenger?s policies would bring a lower standard of living for the American people

as if bushs havent...

http://www.epinet.org


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"anchor blocks counteract the process of pontiprobation..while omalean globes regulize the pressure"...


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OfflinePhred
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Re: Kerrynomics [Re: Rose]
    #3252131 - 10/19/04 05:30 PM (12 years, 1 month ago)

Actually, I am not a Libertarian. I am a Laissez-faire Capitalist along the lines of Locke, the majority of the Founding Fathers, and other Enlightenment era political philosophers such as Bastiat.

But as it happens, the most well-known political party closest to that philosophy is the American Libertarian Party, so I don't get bent out of shape if people find it convenient to refer to me as a Libertarian. "Minarchist" is another label I don't object to either.



pinky


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OfflinePhred
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Re: Kerrynomics [Re: Annapurna1]
    #3252135 - 10/19/04 05:32 PM (12 years, 1 month ago)

Actually, Bush's policies haven't led to a lower standard of living for the American people. Individual net worth in America is at an all time high, even adjusted for inflation. The number of millionaires is also at an all time high. The percentage of Americans who own their own homes is the highest ever. Highest number of Americans in history working. etc.

pinky


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InvisibleAnnapurna1
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Re: Kerrynomics [Re: Phred]
    #3252154 - 10/19/04 05:38 PM (12 years, 1 month ago)

^ sources?...

without any..all of your claims could easily be dismissed simply as the result of increasing inequality..which i strongly suspect is the case...


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"anchor blocks counteract the process of pontiprobation..while omalean globes regulize the pressure"...


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OfflineRoseM
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Re: Kerrynomics [Re: Phred]
    #3252164 - 10/19/04 05:41 PM (12 years, 1 month ago)

I don't like lables you Conservative bastard! :wink:


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Fiddlesticks.



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Invisiblesilversoul7
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Re: Kerrynomics [Re: Phred]
    #3252173 - 10/19/04 05:42 PM (12 years, 1 month ago)

Quote:

pinksharkmark said:
Actually, Bush's policies haven't led to a lower standard of living for the American people. Individual net worth in America is at an all time high, even adjusted for inflation. The number of millionaires is also at an all time high. The percentage of Americans who own their own homes is the highest ever. Highest number of Americans in history working. etc.



And any one of them can be arrested, tried in secret, and have their house searched without a warrant just on suspicion of being a terrorist. Standard of living means more than just money.


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"It is dangerous to be right when the government is wrong."--Voltaire


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OfflinePhred
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Re: Kerrynomics [Re: Annapurna1]
    #3252191 - 10/19/04 05:48 PM (12 years, 1 month ago)

I honestly think this forum should be retitled "Politics, Activism, and Economics". The economic knowledge of the average poster here is extremely low. This is not pointing a finger at you in particular, Annapurna1 -- it is endemic.

People buy the Krugman/Kedwards talking points hook line and sinker because almost everyone finds economics to be dry at best, boring at worst, so typically don't even read the business section of their local paper.

All those figures are widely available from multiple sources. They are also printed in the mainstream press. But virtually no one pays any attention to them.

I don't bother bookmarking every economic article I read, so I don't have links at my fingertips. I will however assure you that every claim I made there is correct, and that all of them can be verified through numerous sources ranging from CNN Money to MSNBC to Time, Newsweek, the Wall Street Journal, the US Department of Housing, Department of Labor, US Census Bureau, etc.

pinky


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