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OfflinePhred
Fred's son
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Registered: 10/19/00
Posts: 12,949
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The broken hockey stick
    #3251428 - 10/19/04 02:23 PM (12 years, 8 months ago)

Although I believe discussions about global warming have no place in this forum, the majority of frequent contributors appear to believe otherwise. So, let me provide this link as my contribution to the discussion.

Let me point out -- before everyone starts wailing about "biased right wing sources" -- that the author of the article makes it quite clear that he personally is concerned about global warming and that he personally believes human-created carbon dioxide may contribute to it. What he does not believe in is cooking the books (manipulating objective data) in order to forward a political agenda. He shows the same famous "hockey stick" chart we've all seen here so many times (in fact it was most recently in one of the threads that got accidently dumped during the latest server maintenance). This is quite probably the most famous and compelling single graph used by those convinced that global warming is real and is the fault of human activity. Entire sub-theorems have been based on it. And it turns out to be bogus as a three dollar bill.

And again, before y'all jump down my throat, no, it is not the only datum upon which adherents of human-caused global warming base their case, but it is the most commonly-referenced and (until now) supposedly convincing one in their arsenal.

http://www.technologyreview.com/articles/04/10/wo_muller101504.asp?p=2

What is of the greatest interest to me is not so much that the hockey stick is bogus but that the supposedly objective scientific community has obstructed so vigorously the proof that it is. It has just upset the applecarts of a whole heck of a lot of grant recipients, and they're (understandably) mightily pissed that the cat has been let out of the bag.

After reading the story about the struggle to get this story to light, perhaps some of the more neutral readers will choose to take the whole "every competent scientist knows global warming is real" and "no one can deny the consensus of the scientific community that global warming is a fact" mantras with a grain of salt.


pinky


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Offlinecb9fl
Senior ChildMolestationExpert
Registered: 06/12/03
Posts: 3,104
Loc: florida
Last seen: 7 years, 10 months
Re: The broken hockey stick [Re: Phred]
    #3251576 - 10/19/04 02:55 PM (12 years, 8 months ago)

Do you believe in global warming? Guessing from your tone I would say you don't?

How about peak oil. Do you believe we have already reached peak oil?


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It is better to be hated for what you are than to be loved for what you are not. -Andre Gide

"Generosity is nothing else than a craze to possess. All which I abandon, all which I give, I enjoy in a higher manner through the fact that I give it away. To give is to enjoy possessively the object which one gives."


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InvisibleInnvertigo
Vote Libertarian!!
Male

Registered: 02/09/01
Posts: 16,296
Loc: Crackerville, Michigan U...
Re: The broken hockey stick [Re: cb9fl]
    #3251581 - 10/19/04 02:56 PM (12 years, 8 months ago)

did you not just read his post?


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America....FUCK YEAH!!!

Words of Wisdom: Individual Rights BEFORE Collective Rights

"The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants." -- Thomas Jefferson


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Offlinedeafpanda
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Re: The broken hockey stick [Re: Phred]
    #3251858 - 10/19/04 04:09 PM (12 years, 8 months ago)

While there may be scientists who believe that global warming isn't real, or isn't a threat, I think that even if there was a 10% chance that greenhouse gas emissions were contributing to it (I'm sure most people would say its more than that), then we should take action to cut emissions. If global warming is real, we're fucked if we don't do this soonish. Better safe than sorry.


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InvisibleSwami
Eggshell Walker

Registered: 01/19/00
Posts: 15,413
Loc: In the hen house
Re: The broken hockey stick [Re: Phred]
    #3251869 - 10/19/04 04:14 PM (12 years, 8 months ago)

*Plugs ears and covers eyes*

And the evidence for a hole in the ozone is fantasy and skin cancer is not increasing at an alarming rate and oceanic plankton is not decreasing from the higher levels of radiation and the rain forest disappearing is just another alarmist myth and those record hurricanes in Florida and drought in the western USA, and tornadoes in the midwest are just an anomoly, just an anomoly, just an anomoly...


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The proof is in the pudding.


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Offlinelonestar2004
Live to party,work to affordit.
 User Gallery

Registered: 10/03/04
Posts: 8,978
Loc: South Texas
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Re: The broken hockey stick [Re: Swami]
    #3251909 - 10/19/04 04:27 PM (12 years, 8 months ago)

We are warming up. but its not just the cars its all the people. Do not worry Mother Earth will recover.


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America's debt problem is a "sign of leadership failure"

We have "reckless fiscal policies"

America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership.

Americans deserve better

Barack Obama


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Offlinedeafpanda
Stranger
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Posts: 984
Loc: Inguland
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Re: The broken hockey stick [Re: lonestar2004]
    #3252058 - 10/19/04 05:13 PM (12 years, 8 months ago)

Mother earth will recover, but humans and ecosystems will be seriously affected if global warming accelerates.


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Offlinezappaisgod
horrid asshole

Registered: 02/11/04
Posts: 81,741
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Re: The broken hockey stick [Re: Phred]
    #3252299 - 10/19/04 06:19 PM (12 years, 8 months ago)

I have these questions regarding the global warming threat. There is a finite amount of fossil fuels buried underground. What percentage have we used up already and how much is left? Why do the global warming alarmists (I'm not saying they're wrong, just that they are ringing the alarm) always base their predictions on a continuing progression of greenhouse gas emissions when their model doesn't at all take into account the fact that we will shortly run out of these fuels to tap? I have never seen one article about global warming which mentions the fact that there is only so much carbon stored. Every projection assumes infinite amounts of fossil fuel. If all (that means there is NONE left) of the carbon stored in fossil fuels was to be released wouldn't that be the end of the global warming curve?

And Swami, is there any evidence that there are more hurricanes this year? More hit Florida, true, but fewer hit the Carolinas,is that not so. Is the total up? What about tornadoes? Have there actually been more? What effect do greenhouse gas emissions have on the ozone layer? I thought the hole was caused by CFCs. I thought the rain forest was disappearing because it was being chopped down, not because of global warming. Skin cancer up and plankton down (I'm not conceding either is true) as a result of increased radiation? How exactly is that due to greenhouse gases? Just asking. Drought in the Western US? Isn't most of it a desert and wouldn't most of the problems be rightly ascribed to the disruption caused by the diverting of water resources to otherwise desert areas and not greenhouse gases? Isn't this thread about global warming?


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Offlinedeafpanda
Stranger
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Re: The broken hockey stick [Re: zappaisgod]
    #3252393 - 10/19/04 06:35 PM (12 years, 8 months ago)

Yeah, running out of fossil fuels *could* be our saviour, depending on how quickly the earth warms. I've heard estimates (no source, sorry) that we will have used 90% of our fossil fuels within the next 50 years. I have heard other estimates too, but that's the one that sticks in my mind. This is the same sort of period of time as global warming is expected to take off and become a major problem.


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InvisibleSwami
Eggshell Walker

Registered: 01/19/00
Posts: 15,413
Loc: In the hen house
Re: The broken hockey stick [Re: zappaisgod]
    #3252411 - 10/19/04 06:40 PM (12 years, 8 months ago)

What effect do greenhouse gas emissions have on the ozone layer? I thought the hole was caused by CFCs.

True.

ALL of your questions are valid. I link these other issues because when I brought them up years / decades ago, there was the EXACT SAME "the sky is falling" ridicule, yet EACH AND EVERY issue has been born out to be a real danger.


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The proof is in the pudding.


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OfflinePhred
Fred's son
Male

Registered: 10/19/00
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Re: The broken hockey stick [Re: Swami]
    #3252465 - 10/19/04 06:50 PM (12 years, 8 months ago)

Swami writes:

*Plugs ears and covers eyes*

LOL! Can we say "irony"?

That's exactly what the supposedly "objective" and "scientific" global warming brigade did when confronted with the irrefutable evidence that their sacred hockey stick was nothing more than an artifact of faulty mathematical method.

pinky


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InvisibleSwami
Eggshell Walker

Registered: 01/19/00
Posts: 15,413
Loc: In the hen house
Re: The broken hockey stick [Re: Phred]
    #3252537 - 10/19/04 07:07 PM (12 years, 8 months ago)

USA TODAY Collapse of Larsen B Ice Shelf Breakup challenges researchers

By Jack Williams, USATODAY.com

CLINTON, N.Y. ? The one thing that's absolutely clear about the collapse of Antarctica's Larsen B Ice Shelf in March 2002 is that sea water now washes over an area roughly the size of Rhode Island that thick ice had covered for centuries.

"We were astonished when we saw whales, penguins and seals in the place where for thousands of years before there was 250 meters (800 feet) of ice," says Pedro Skvarca of the Argentine Antarctic Institute.


Sorry for the alarmist B.S.  :rolleyes:


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The proof is in the pudding.


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