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Polls showing Kerry Leading, win may be by a large margin
Election 2004 Reuters/Zogby Daily Tracking Poll
Presidential Race Narrows to Less Than One Percent ? Bush 45%, Kerry 46%; Candidates Statistically Tied in Race for the White House; Debate May Cause Tie-Break, New Reuters/Zogby Poll Reveals
(Utica, NY)- As the candidates prepare for the second presidential debate, President George W. Bush and Senator John Kerry are locked in a statistical dead heat (45%-46%), according to a new Reuters/Zogby daily tracking poll. The telephone poll of 1216 likely voters was conducted from Tuesday through Thursday (October 5-7,2004). The margin of error is +/- 2.9 percentage points.
Presidential Candidates % Oct 5-Oct 7 Oct 4-Oct 6
Republican - George W. Bush 45 44
Democrat - John Kerry 46 46
Independent - Ralph Nader 1.9 1.8
Libertarian - Michael Badnarik - -
Constitution - Michael Peroutka .2 .2
Green - David Cobb .1 -
Other .4 .3
Undecided 7 8
Favorable/Unfavorable Ratings of Candidates %
President Bush and Senator Kerry are continuing their statistical tie with their unfavorable rating tied at 45% and their favorable ratings at 52% for Mr. Bush and 54% for Mr. Kerry. Mr. Kerry is holding a lead among southern voters (59%); those between the ages of 30-49 (64%); rural voters (65%); and NASCAR fans (61%). Mr. Kerry is finding his support among 18-24 year olds (77%); and those over 70 (57%); African Americans (92%); women (54%); union members (67%) and singles (73%).
Candidate Favorable% Unfavorable%
President George W. Bush 52 45
Senator John Kerry 54 45
Preferred Candidate Among Leaners %
When undecided respondents were asked to identify the candidate that they are leaning toward, Kerry showed a slight edge. More than two in five (44%) still report that they remain undecided though. These are among the most important voters the candidates will be reaching out to during the debate.
Presidential Ticket Leaners % Oct 5-Oct 7 Oct 4-Oct6
Bush-Cheney 26 27
Kerry-Edwards 28 28
Undecided 44 44
President?s Job Performance Rating %
The President?s job performance rating reflects slightly less than half the voters approving (47%) and slightly more than half disapproving (53%). His support is strongest among those in the south (52%); and the central great lakes (54%); Whites (53%); Born Again Christians (66%); married individuals (54%) and those earning more than 75K (54%).
George W. Bush Oct 5-Oct 7 Oct 4-Oct6
Approve 47 47
Disapprove 53 52
Undecided - 1
US Direction- Right or Wrong %
When asked to describe the direction the country is headed in, respondents were divided with 45% saying the country is headed in the wrong direction and 48% saying the right direction. Again, the Bush supporters are in the south (52%), and the central great lakes (49%). They tend to be: between the ages of 30-49 (53%); members of the investor class (48%); White (49%); and Republican (80%). Those who believe the country is headed in the wrong direction tend to be: from the east (57%) and west (55%); African American (74%); women (49%) and union members (56%).
US Direction Oct 5-Oct 7 Oct 4-Oct6
Right 45 45
Wrong 48 48
Undecided 7 8
President Re-elect or Time for Someone New %
Here, half the respondents are looking for someone new to lead the country. Those who believe the President should return to the White House for four more years, include: southerners (51%); those ages 30-49 (52%); Whites (51%); Republicans (88%) and Protestants (57%). Individuals looking for someone new include: easterners (59%); westerners (55%); 18-29 year olds (64%); 50-64 year olds (53%); those who do not consider themselves investor class (51%), members of the military (53%) and African Americans (88%).
George W. Bush Oct 5-Oct 7 Oct 4-Oct6
Re-Elect 45 44
Someone New 50 50
Undecided 5 6
Pollster John Zogby: "Yesterday a major national newspaper ran a column suggesting that the debates are not important. Just look at these numbers and it is hard to draw that conclusion. In today?s figures Kerry is reaching 95% support among democrats, though he will still need more support. The president polls 75% of republicans but independents are almost split (with Kerry leading, 51%-42%).
The two candidates are in a dead heat among Catholics. Remember that Bill Clinton won Catholics by double-digits and Al Gore beat Bush 51%-46% among Catholics in 2000.
Bush leads Kerry among self-identified investors by only 7 points (51%-44%). Remember that he needs to win this group by double-digits.
Kerry is doing very well among both Hispanics and African-Americans.
As of today, it is a .7 percent race with the president still receiving a negative job performance and a negative re-elect".
Zogby International conducted interviews of 1216 likely voters chosen at random nationwide. All calls were made from Zogby International headquarters in Utica, N.Y., from 10/5/04 thru 10/7/04. The margin of error is +/- 2.9 percentage points. Slight weights were added to region, party, age, race, religion, gender, to more accurately reflect the voting population. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups.
In 1996, John Zogby came within one-tenth of 1 percent of the presidential result. Since 1996, Zogby has polled for Reuters News Agency, the largest news agency in the world. The latest results and analysis of the Zogby polls, and exclusive interviews with John Zogby are available on Reuters.com. The site provides comprehensive coverage of the campaigns, including a special video service, which compares the position of both candidates on key policy issues./ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Take Back Your America , it's now your opportunity to show George Bush, That you have had enough. 4 years of lies, his deceit over WMD's , reckless spending and a war that has gained us nothing. Terrorism is at it's highest in the last 23 years . The 911-panel has found no creditable link to Iraq and 911. Our Administration has approved of the torture of Iraqi prisoners and yet turned around only to prosecute the soldiers following these orders. Please take a minute to visit Take Back Your America open your mind to the possibility that in November this man must be replaced.
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