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OfflineGazzBut
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Re: Surprise CO2 rise may speed up global warming [Re: Innvertigo]
    #3242176 - 10/11/04 09:32 AM (16 years, 6 months ago)

So you arent going to bother providing any links to the scientists who disagree with global warming?

Can you at least confirm whether they believe man has had no effect on climate change or whether they believe no climate change is taking place?


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InvisibleInnvertigo
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Re: Surprise CO2 rise may speed up global warming [Re: GazzBut]
    #3242235 - 10/11/04 10:09 AM (16 years, 6 months ago)

Quote:

So you arent going to bother providing any links to the scientists who disagree with global warming?





whoa, way to make a stand. Actually no. Go check out the other threads on this topic.

Quote:

Can you at least confirm whether they believe man has had no effect on climate change or whether they believe no climate change is taking place?




They believe and I tend to agree that a majority of the CO2 is made natuarally and benefits vegitation growth. I think it's pompous for man to think that they have the ability to cause the weather to change. Perhaps it's possible but noone knows. I am not naive enough to say that it can't happen, however i'm also not naive enough to say without a doubt that it will or is happening.


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America....FUCK YEAH!!!

Words of Wisdom: Individual Rights BEFORE Collective Rights

"The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants." -- Thomas Jefferson


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InvisibleXlea321
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Re: Surprise CO2 rise may speed up global warming [Re: Innvertigo]
    #3242258 - 10/11/04 10:31 AM (16 years, 6 months ago)

I think it's pompous for man to think that they have the ability to cause the weather to change.

Hmm...and your qualifications as a climate scientist are what exactly?


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InvisibleInnvertigo
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Re: Surprise CO2 rise may speed up global warming [Re: Xlea321]
    #3242266 - 10/11/04 10:39 AM (16 years, 6 months ago)

Alex, you know I don't find you worthy of a reply, why do you insist on trying?


--------------------

America....FUCK YEAH!!!

Words of Wisdom: Individual Rights BEFORE Collective Rights

"The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants." -- Thomas Jefferson


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InvisibleXlea321
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Re: Surprise CO2 rise may speed up global warming [Re: Innvertigo]
    #3242401 - 10/11/04 11:56 AM (16 years, 6 months ago)

So why did you reply?


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InvisibleInnvertigo
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Re: Surprise CO2 rise may speed up global warming [Re: Xlea321]
    #3242496 - 10/11/04 12:35 PM (16 years, 6 months ago)

good point..there I did it again.


--------------------

America....FUCK YEAH!!!

Words of Wisdom: Individual Rights BEFORE Collective Rights

"The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants." -- Thomas Jefferson


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OfflineGazzBut
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Re: Surprise CO2 rise may speed up global warming [Re: Innvertigo]
    #3242570 - 10/11/04 01:00 PM (16 years, 6 months ago)

Quote:

whoa, way to make a stand. Actually no. Go check out the other threads on this topic.




Why cant you just tell me who these scientists are? Whats the title of the thread im looking for anyway?..bet you cant even tell me that can you! Wouldnt it be easier, for the sake of debate, if you just gave me the names of these scientists so I can go away and see what they have to say?

Quote:

They believe and I tend to agree that a majority of the CO2 is made natuarally and benefits vegitation growth.




I think the issue is when there is more Co2 than plants can absorb then we have a problem. Many think the current levels of Co2 put us into that situation.

Quote:

I think it's pompous for man to think that they have the ability to cause the weather to change.




Pompous? Thats a good one! Hardly solid proof to the contrary though is it inny!

Regardless of whether man has any involvement, do you think we are facing a potentially dramatic change in the global climate?


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InvisibleInnvertigo
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Re: Surprise CO2 rise may speed up global warming [Re: GazzBut]
    #3242631 - 10/11/04 01:21 PM (16 years, 6 months ago)

Quote:

Why cant you just tell me who these scientists are?




I have no idea who the scientist are, just as you don't know the ones that the article is referring to. I won't repeat my self so if you don't want to look up the old thread then that is your problem.

Quote:

I think the issue is when there is more Co2 than plants can absorb then we have a problem.




then your thought is a mere guess. the whole global warming scare tactic is just that, a guess.

Quote:

Pompous? Thats a good one! Hardly solid proof to the contrary though is it inny!




not any less credible then screaming that the sky is falling.

Quote:

Regardless of whether man has any involvement, do you think we are facing a potentially dramatic change in the global climate?




whoa, wait a minute. What do you mean? Man is either the problem or they are not, there is no regaurdless. Don't start flip flopping on me. and NO, i don't think we are facing a potentially dramatic change in global climate. If you were to read the old thread this had been discussed.


--------------------

America....FUCK YEAH!!!

Words of Wisdom: Individual Rights BEFORE Collective Rights

"The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants." -- Thomas Jefferson


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OfflineGazzBut
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Re: Surprise CO2 rise may speed up global warming [Re: Innvertigo]
    #3242719 - 10/11/04 01:51 PM (16 years, 6 months ago)

Quote:

then your thought is a mere guess. the whole global warming scare tactic is just that, a guess.






So announcing fact that an abnormal jump in co2 levels has been recorded in multiple observatories around the world is a scare tactic? Its the first time that a jump of this magnitude has been recorded 2 years on the trot but of course you are aware of all this having read the article....

Quote:

whoa, wait a minute. What do you mean? Man is either the problem or they are not, there is no regaurdless. Don't start flip flopping on me. and




Show me anywhere in this thread where I have said man is the cause of this?

I do think that our governments should be focusing more on this issue and investing more in confirming whether or not we face a real danger here and if we do then they should be planning how best to deal with it. As I said before, the money wasted in Iraq to help a few corporations get rich would, to my mind, have been much better spent looking into this real threat to the planet as opposed to imaginary wmds.


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OfflineMushmonkey
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Re: Surprise CO2 rise may speed up global warming [Re: GazzBut]
    #3242846 - 10/11/04 02:28 PM (16 years, 6 months ago)

You know, at the beginning of the 1900s, I believe there was a scare that we were headed into another ice age.
Now we're going the other way.

I'm not saying we don't have ANY effect on the planet's climate..


what I WILL say is that we really have no goddamned clue how to predict or even recognize the long-term climatic changes that our planet has always gone through. They're on tens, hundreds of thousands of year cycles. We've only got the numbers on about a hundred years. Beyond that we have to guess.

And guess what.. those guesses we've been making about the past's climate? You know, tree ring analysis and whatnot? Turns out we were doing it wrong.

Can't find it now. recently read article. Guy used those methods to extrapolate past climate, then used past climate to construct what kind of growth rings and such should be expected, and fed it back into the original equations to extrapolate the past climate..

and it was fubared. didn't come out the same, obviously, it wouldn't because of estimations.. but it DID come out far more different than it should have. Bleh I'll have to find that...


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InvisibleInnvertigo
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Re: Surprise CO2 rise may speed up global warming [Re: GazzBut]
    #3242865 - 10/11/04 02:33 PM (16 years, 6 months ago)

Quote:

So announcing fact that an abnormal jump in co2 levels has been recorded in multiple observatories around the world is a scare tactic? Its the first time that a jump of this magnitude has been recorded 2 years on the trot but of course you are aware of all this having read the article....




in the old thread there is a chart that shows a HUGE jump in CO2 level (about the same as we have today) around the 12th century or so. Care to explain what man made device caused that?

Quote:

but of course you are aware of all this having read the article....




I find it funny that the guy took CO2 readings near and on top of a volcano in Hawaii. Doesn't seem very smart.

Quote:

Show me anywhere in this thread where I have said man is the cause of this?




are you saying that this shift in CO2 is natural?

Quote:

I do think that our governments should be focusing more on this issue and investing more in confirming whether or not we face a real danger here and if we do then they should be planning how best to deal with it




They should focus on companies polluting and doing lefitamite research to whether or not this threat is man made or a natural cycle that is evident in the graphs shown in the old thread.

Quote:

As I said before, the money wasted in Iraq to help a few corporations get rich would, to my mind, have been much better spent looking into this real threat to the planet as opposed to imaginary wmds.




i'd rather have it spent on those living in poverty within my own country first.


--------------------

America....FUCK YEAH!!!

Words of Wisdom: Individual Rights BEFORE Collective Rights

"The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants." -- Thomas Jefferson


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OfflineGazzBut
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Registered: 10/15/02
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Re: Surprise CO2 rise may speed up global warming [Re: Innvertigo]
    #3243461 - 10/11/04 04:25 PM (16 years, 6 months ago)

Quote:

in the old thread there is a chart that shows a HUGE jump in CO2 level (about the same as we have today) around the 12th century or so. Care to explain what man made device caused that?





I never said it was a man made device!??! Over what timeframe did this spike occur? 1 year, a decade?

Quote:

I find it funny that the guy took CO2 readings near and on top of a volcano in Hawaii. Doesn't seem very smart.




Thats probabaly why he's a highly respected scienctist and you spend too much time on the shroomery!

Quote:

are you saying that this shift in CO2 is natural? 




Im saying I wouldnt at all be surprised if humans had exacerbated the situation. However, it seems certain that Co2 levels are rising and we need to be thinking about the probabale effects and what we can do about them.

Quote:

They should focus on companies polluting and doing lefitamite research to whether or not this threat is man made or a natural cycle that is evident in the graphs shown in the old thread.





So is that the best you can do to backup your claim that man has had no effect on global warming? one spike in C02 emissions in the 12th century. Source: some old thread. Neato.  :grin:

Quote:

'd rather have it spent on those living in poverty within my own country first. 




Poverty in the US could have probabaly been eradicated twice over and there would most likely be more money left to pump into climate research than is currently being invested by the US government.


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OfflineTao
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Registered: 09/19/03
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Re: Surprise CO2 rise may speed up global warming [Re: GazzBut]
    #3243889 - 10/11/04 06:08 PM (16 years, 6 months ago)

Don't even bother with inny, gazz. he likes to think he's smart by thinking he 'sees through it all'. however the question of whether the globe is warming or not is no longer even an issue. the questions that continue are:

1) How much is man contributing to this effect
2) What will be the consequences
3) What will be the magnitude of those consequences (this is the question the article is dealing with)

i'm basing this on a university senior-level class on environmental politics taught by a PhD doctorate as well as a friend who studies Environmental Sciences at the university that is the frontrunner in climate change research in europe. she's even taken a class from a professor who doesn't believe humans are main cause of the rise in co2, but rest assured, he's the only one on the entire staff who believes it and even he doesnt question whether the globe is warming.


but don't just take my word for it, check out the ipcc website (ipcc.ch) whose reports are comprised of 122 coordinating lead authors, 515 contributing authors, 21 review editors and 420 expert reviewers from 99 countries.
Quote:

The role of the IPCC is to assess on a comprehensive, objective, open and transparent basis the scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant to understanding the scientific basis of risk of human-induced climate change, its potential impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation. The IPCC does not carry out research nor does it monitor climate related data or other relevant parameters. It bases its assessment mainly on peer reviewed and published scientific/technical literature.



they do not just 'guess' but use specific words that coordinate to how certain they are (e.g. highly likely means 90-99% certain and medium likelyhood means 33-66%).


try this for a start, its a synthesis report: http://www.ipcc.ch/pub/un/syreng/wg1spm.pdf

oh and before you give the impression of environmentalists being doomsayers, the last time they predicted catastrophe was over human emissions (CFCs) which were changing the earths ozone layer and thus climate (my god, how pompous eh inny?). fortunately policy makers acted quickly then (since it wasn't too much to ask their citizens/industries to give up CFCs) and it was halted, but we still have holes over antartica and argentina as a grim reminder that we most definately can have a huge impact on this earth. hell we're already causing the 6th mass species extinction in the 4 BILLION years history of this earth. our effect isn't pompous, its reality.

edit: typo


Edited by TaoTeChing (10/11/04 06:24 PM)


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InvisibleGijith
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Re: Surprise CO2 rise may speed up global warming [Re: Mushmonkey]
    #3244069 - 10/11/04 06:56 PM (16 years, 6 months ago)

Excellent post, Mushmonkey.

There are many many people, myself being one of them, who spend the bulk of their days studying global climate. It's unquestionably one of the hardest avenues of science on Earth. There are no solid answers with this kind of stuff. There probably never will be.

But what I hope everyone would agree on is that we should all do more reading on the subject and we should encourage our various governments to take the issue seriously. One thing that almost every person in the field agrees on is that humans have the potential to effect global climate. It's just that not everyone agrees on whether it's happening yet. Sooner or later, we're gonna have to face it. I'd like to see our current politicians at least take a closer look at it.

:cheers:


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InvisibleInnvertigo
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Re: Surprise CO2 rise may speed up global warming [Re: Tao]
    #3244075 - 10/11/04 06:58 PM (16 years, 6 months ago)

run for the hills!!!!!!!

you claim global warming is a fact when you have absolutly no proof. Just as I said in the old thread, there are just as many experts that say the heating and cooling of the Earth is a natural cycle. This is not to say that we should pollute the Earth and release CFC's into the world.

You have yet to prove that we are in fact warming up. Global warming is a myth and you have yet to prove otherwise. Keep trying, maybe you can find a friend of a friend who knows a Dr. somewhere in a university that can back you up. Keep trying.


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America....FUCK YEAH!!!

Words of Wisdom: Individual Rights BEFORE Collective Rights

"The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants." -- Thomas Jefferson


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OfflineTao
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Re: Surprise CO2 rise may speed up global warming [Re: Innvertigo]
    #3244116 - 10/11/04 07:10 PM (16 years, 6 months ago)

Quote:

you claim global warming is a fact




which part am i claiming is fact? You keep arguing two different points: are you arguing that the globe is warming but that its natural and not caused by humans or are you arguing that it is not warming at all? pick a side.

Quote:

when you have absolutly no proof.




uh yeah i do: the ipcc reports, which you'll note is a consensus and peer-reviewed. i challenge you to find me ONE such study on the other side that is a consensus of many scientists and has been peer-reviewed.

Quote:

Just as I said in the old thread, there are just as many experts that say the heating and cooling of the Earth is a natural cycle.




great, so this particular report had 515 contributors to its findings and conclusions, find me anything CLOSE to that from the other side.

Quote:

This is not to say that we should pollute the Earth and release CFC's into the world.



its not even necessarily about polluting and certainly not about CFCs (do you think CFCs have to do with global warming?), its about carbon emissions. if we can find a way to absorb that carbon, we won't need to cut down on pollution. in fact, scientists are already trying to come up with such a solution.

Quote:

Global warming is a myth and you have yet to prove otherwise.




no it is I who have provided a very credible peer-reviewed source. you have provided precisely fuck-all.

Quote:

Keep trying, maybe you can find a friend of a friend who knows a Dr. somewhere in a university that can back you up. Keep trying.




right, thats exactly what i said. 'find afoaf who knows someone', no its my closest friend who studies that, has taken a course specifically on climate change at the leading european university in climate change reseach and in fact is currently writing her dissertation on climate change perceptions. she assures me that the question of whether the globe is warming or not is no longer a question in the scientific community (it was up until a few years ago, but it is no longer).


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InvisibleEvolving
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Re: Surprise CO2 rise may speed up global warming [Re: Tao]
    #3245023 - 10/11/04 10:49 PM (16 years, 6 months ago)

Quote:

TaoTeChing said:
oh and before you give the impression of environmentalists being doomsayers, the last time they predicted catastrophe was over human emissions (CFCs) which were changing the earths ozone layer...



Do you know that before the thin area (not a hole) in the ozone layer was discovered, nobody knew if existed before or not? Do you know how ozone is created in the upper atmosphere? Do you know the half life of ozone? Bearing the two previous questions in mind, what areas of the globe receive the least sunshine during certain periods of the year? When does the ozone thin and when does it increase? Did you know that when the knowledge of this thinning was popularized that the patents had just about run out on freon, so it would be cheaper and to buy and DuPont would no longer have a legal monopoly on it's production? Fortunately, DuPont had replacement refrigerants waiting in the wings and a friendly Senator from Tennessee to help out their cause.

Oh, here's an interesting article which says that according to researchers from the National Science Foundation, the seasonally averaged surface air temperature in Antarctica has decreased by 0.7 degrees Celsius per decade. Strange, huh?


--------------------
To call humans 'rational beings' does injustice to the term, 'rational.'  Humans are capable of rational thought, but it is not their essence.  Humans are animals, beasts with complex brains.  Humans, more often than not, utilize their cerebrum to rationalize what their primal instincts, their preconceived notions, and their emotional desires have presented as goals - humans are rationalizing beings.


Edited by Evolving (10/11/04 10:54 PM)


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InvisibleEvolving
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Re: Surprise CO2 rise may speed up global warming [Re: Evolving]
    #3245051 - 10/11/04 10:56 PM (16 years, 6 months ago)

Here's a nice tidbit from the article...
Quote:

Authors of the new NSF report point out that previous studies showing Antarctica to be warming were conducted over 20 years ago, with temperature readings taken largely on the Antarctic Peninsula extending toward South America.


Peter Doran, of the University of Illinois at Chicago, the lead author of the paper, and his co-authors, contend that averaging the temperature readings from the more numerous stations on the Peninsula led to the misleading conclusion that the entire continent was warming. "Our approach shows that if you remove the Peninsula from the dataset, and look at the spatial trend. The majority of the continent is cooling," said Doran.




Whoops!


--------------------
To call humans 'rational beings' does injustice to the term, 'rational.'  Humans are capable of rational thought, but it is not their essence.  Humans are animals, beasts with complex brains.  Humans, more often than not, utilize their cerebrum to rationalize what their primal instincts, their preconceived notions, and their emotional desires have presented as goals - humans are rationalizing beings.


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OfflineBaby_Hitler
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Re: Surprise CO2 rise may speed up global warming [Re: Innvertigo]
    #3245527 - 10/12/04 12:25 AM (16 years, 6 months ago)

I suspect the CO2 increase is more due to our impact on the natural sequestration processes than on our increased CO2 production.

We should probably just nuke some mountain somewhere and it would solve the problem.


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InvisibleGijith
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Re: Surprise CO2 rise may speed up global warming [Re: Evolving]
    #3245626 - 10/12/04 12:49 AM (16 years, 6 months ago)

Evolving,

-Ozone is created by solar radiation hitting oxygen.
-According to one of my chem books, ozone has a half life of 3 days at 20 degrees celsius.
-The poles recieve the least amount of sunshine during their respective off seasons, if that's what you mean.
-If you're referring to internal proccesses, the ozone in the atmosphere should decrease when there's less oxygen being released into it. And increase when there's more oxygen being released into it.

I'm not really sure where you're going with all this. Most ozone is created at the equator and moves toward the poles (I think because the temp at the equator raises the troposhpere and ozone prefers to remain low, though remain in the stratopshere). The half life of O3 also increases greatly at colder temp (though I'm not sure if this has anything to do with why it accumulates at the polls).

It's funny you posted that article, cause one of my glacial professors was talking to me about it a few weeks ago. The most recent work that's been done (that study's a few years old) has shown that the most probable reason for the decrease in temp is an increase in the weather pattern over Antarctica, called the SAM. When the SAM strengthens, it's more likely to isolate cool air over Antarctica. Hence the cooling trend (the Antarctic Peninsula has most likely warmed because temp in the Bellingshausen Sea remains relatively warm). What's causing the strengthening of the SAM? The most likely culprit is thinning ozone in the Antarctic stratosphere.

Regardless, the cooling pattern in Antarctica has nothing to do with the main mechanisms behind global warming. It's just a meteorological side effect.


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