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OfflineGazzBut
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Surprise CO2 rise may speed up global warming
    #3241974 - 10/11/04 06:26 AM (12 years, 8 months ago)

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Surprise CO2 rise may speed up global warming
By Michael McCarthy, Environment Editor
11 October 2004


The rate at which global warming gases are accumulating in the atmosphere has taken a sharp leap upwards, leading to fears that the devastating effects of climate change may hit the world even sooner than has been predicted.

Atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide (CO2 ), the principal greenhouse gas, have made a sudden jump that cannot be explained by any corresponding jump in terrestrial emissions of CO2 from power stations and motor vehicles - because there has been none.

Some scientists think instead that the abrupt speed-up may be evidence of the long-feared climate change "feedback" mechanism, by which global warming causes alterations to the earth's natural systems and then, in turn, causes the warming to increase even more rapidly than before.

Such a development would mean the worldwide droughts, agricultural failure, sea-level rise, increased weather turbulence and flooding all predicted as consequences of climate change would arrive on much shorter time-scales than present scenarios suggest, and the world would have much less time to co-ordinate its response.

Only last month, Tony Blair expressed anxiety that global warming's dire effects would arrive not just in his children's lifetime, but in his own, and would "radically alter human existence".

The feedback phenomenon has already been predicted in the supercomputer models of the global climate on which the current forecasts of warming are based. A key aspect is the weakening, caused by the warming itself, of the earth's ability to remove huge amounts of CO2 from the atmosphere by absorbing it annually in its forests and oceans, in the so-called carbon cycle. (The forests and oceans are referred to as carbon "sinks".)

Hitherto, however, that weakening has been put decades into the future.

The possibility that it may be occurring now is suggested in the long run of atmospheric CO2 measurements that have been made since 1958 at the observatory on the top of Mauna Loa, an 11,000ft volcano in Hawaii, by the American physicist Charles Keeling, from the University of California at San Diego.

When he began, Dr Keeling, who is still in charge of the project and who might be said to be the Grand Old Man of CO2 , found the amount of the gas present in the atmosphere to be 315 parts per million by volume (ppm); today, after the remorseless increase in emissions from power stations and motor vehicles over the past four and a half decades, the figure stands at 376ppm.

This growth is what most scientists believe is causing the earth's atmosphere to warm up, as the increasing CO2 retains more and more of the sun's heat in the atmosphere, like the panes of a greenhouse.

But the worry now is not merely the swelling volume of CO2 but the sudden leap in its increase rate. Across all 46 years of Dr Keeling's measurements, the average annual CO2 rise has been 1.3ppm, although in recent decades it has gone up to about 1.6ppm.

There have been several peaks, all associated with El Ni?o, the disruption of the atmosphere-ocean system in the tropical Pacific Ocean that causes changes to global weather patterns. In 1988, for example, the annual increase was 2.45ppm; in 1998, 2.74ppm; both were El Ni?o years.

Throughout the series those peaks have been followed by troughs, and there has been no annual increase in CO2 above 2ppm that has been sustained for more than a year. Until now.

From 2001 to 2002, the increase was 2.08ppm (from 371.02 to 373.10); and from 2002 to 2003 the increase was 2.54ppm (from 373.10 to 375.64). Neither of these were El Ni?o years, and there has been no sudden leap in emissions.

The greater-than-two rise is also visible in two separate sets of CO2 measurements made by America's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, at Mauna Loa and other stations around the world.

At the weekend, Dr Keeling told The Independent the rise was real and worrying as it might indeed represent the beginnings of a feedback.

He said it might be associated with the Southern Oscillation, a pattern of high and low atmospheric pressure previously always associated with El Ni?os, or it might be something new.

"The rise in the annual rate of CO2 increase to above two parts per million for two consecutive years is a real phenomenon," Dr Keeling said.

"It is possible this is merely a reflection of the Southern Oscillation, like previous peaks in the rate, but it is possible it is the beginning of a natural process unprecedented in records.

"This could be a decoupling of the Southern Oscillation from El Ni?o events, which itself could be caused by increased CO2 in the atmosphere; or it could be a weakening of the earth's carbon sinks. It is a cause for concern."

Leading British scientists and environmentalists agree. "If this is a rate change [in the CO2 rise], of course it will be very significant," said Dr Piers Forster of the meteorology department of the University of Reading. "It will be of enormous concern, because it will imply that all our global warming predictions for the next 100 years or so will have to be redone. If the higher rate of increase continues, things will get very much worse. It will makes our predicament even more catastrophic."

Tom Burke, a former government adviser on green issues who is now an academic and environmental adviser to business, said: "This series of CO2 measurements is the world's climate clock, and it looks as if it may be ticking faster,"

"That means we are running out of time to stabilise the climate. Governments and business will both have to invest dramatically more if we are to avoid the global warming catastrophe that Tony Blair has warned against."


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OfflineTao
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Re: Surprise CO2 rise may speed up global warming [Re: GazzBut]
    #3241981 - 10/11/04 06:36 AM (12 years, 8 months ago)

That may sound scary, but don't worry, I've been assured by a certain C-level university graduate after he 'read' a study that he commissioned himself telling him that global warming is a problem, that it is not actually a problem.


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OfflineGazzBut
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Re: Surprise CO2 rise may speed up global warming [Re: Tao]
    #3241986 - 10/11/04 06:38 AM (12 years, 8 months ago)

Gee thanks for the reassurance!  :grin:

I suppose we can expect the same ostrich like reaction from our beloved leaders!


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InvisibleInnvertigo
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Re: Surprise CO2 rise may speed up global warming [Re: GazzBut]
    #3242012 - 10/11/04 07:00 AM (12 years, 8 months ago)

:yawn:


--------------------

America....FUCK YEAH!!!

Words of Wisdom: Individual Rights BEFORE Collective Rights

"The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants." -- Thomas Jefferson


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OfflineGazzBut
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Registered: 10/15/02
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Re: Surprise CO2 rise may speed up global warming [Re: Innvertigo]
    #3242026 - 10/11/04 07:35 AM (12 years, 8 months ago)

Your comments are always so well thought out and interesting Inny. I dont know how you do it, I really dont.

Nearly 15000 posts of this kind of quality..wow! how inspiring.


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InvisibleInnvertigo
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Re: Surprise CO2 rise may speed up global warming [Re: GazzBut]
    #3242028 - 10/11/04 07:36 AM (12 years, 8 months ago)

years of intense research. This topic has been done more times then the queen.


--------------------

America....FUCK YEAH!!!

Words of Wisdom: Individual Rights BEFORE Collective Rights

"The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants." -- Thomas Jefferson


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OfflineTao
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Registered: 09/19/03
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Re: Surprise CO2 rise may speed up global warming [Re: Innvertigo]
    #3242031 - 10/11/04 07:39 AM (12 years, 8 months ago)

this is significant new news, i read it today too before this thread.


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InvisibleInnvertigo
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Re: Surprise CO2 rise may speed up global warming [Re: Tao]
    #3242041 - 10/11/04 07:46 AM (12 years, 8 months ago)

fair enough....new news same as the old news.


--------------------

America....FUCK YEAH!!!

Words of Wisdom: Individual Rights BEFORE Collective Rights

"The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants." -- Thomas Jefferson


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OfflineTao
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Re: Surprise CO2 rise may speed up global warming [Re: Innvertigo]
    #3242043 - 10/11/04 07:48 AM (12 years, 8 months ago)

Quote:

new news same as the old news




I gather you didnt bother to read the article then.


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InvisibleInnvertigo
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Re: Surprise CO2 rise may speed up global warming [Re: Tao]
    #3242056 - 10/11/04 07:54 AM (12 years, 8 months ago)

new news same as old news...i read it


--------------------

America....FUCK YEAH!!!

Words of Wisdom: Individual Rights BEFORE Collective Rights

"The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants." -- Thomas Jefferson


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OfflineGazzBut
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Registered: 10/15/02
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Re: Surprise CO2 rise may speed up global warming [Re: Innvertigo]
    #3242059 - 10/11/04 07:57 AM (12 years, 8 months ago)

So do you think we should be spending more time/money investigating the accuracy of the information and looking into the best ways to deal with this problem?

I wonder what progress would be made if a fraction of the money that has been spent chasing oil in the middle east was spent on this kind of thing instead.


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InvisibleInnvertigo
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Re: Surprise CO2 rise may speed up global warming [Re: GazzBut]
    #3242073 - 10/11/04 08:09 AM (12 years, 8 months ago)

Quote:

investigating the accuracy of the information and looking into the best ways to deal with this problem




It doesn't cost us money to stop polluting. I've never defended those who punp CO2 into the air. My beef is the scare tactic. Global warming is not proven, for every 10 scientists (BTW i like the way the article said "some scientists believe") that say it is happening I can find 10 that say the opposite.

Quote:

I wonder what progress would be made if a fraction of the money that has been spent chasing oil in the middle east was spent on this kind of thing instead.




you are a bitter, bitter man. Stay on topic.


--------------------

America....FUCK YEAH!!!

Words of Wisdom: Individual Rights BEFORE Collective Rights

"The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants." -- Thomas Jefferson


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OfflineGazzBut
Refraction

Registered: 10/15/02
Posts: 4,770
Loc: London UK
Last seen: 3 months, 29 days
Re: Surprise CO2 rise may speed up global warming [Re: Innvertigo]
    #3242082 - 10/11/04 08:13 AM (12 years, 8 months ago)

Quote:

for every 10 scientists (BTW i like the way the article said "some scientists believe") that say it is happening I can find 10 that say the opposite.





So you say, but If I was a betting man Id lay money that you wont.

Quote:

you are a bitter, bitter man. Stay on topic.




Have you just suffered a blow to the head? Once your brain returns to normal functioning im sure you will realise that I was completely on topic.
And if being annoyed at the gross waste of money that our respective goverments have overseen in Iraq equates to bitterness in Innyland, then yes Im certainly bitter!

Edit: These scientists who disagree with global warming, do they disagree with the fact that man has played a part in it or do they actaully deny that any climate change is taking place at the moment?


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Edited by GazzBut (10/11/04 08:15 AM)


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InvisibleInnvertigo
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Re: Surprise CO2 rise may speed up global warming [Re: GazzBut]
    #3242085 - 10/11/04 08:17 AM (12 years, 8 months ago)

Quote:

So you say, but If I was a betting man Id lay money that you wont.




I already have Einstein. Check out the "The Greenin Of Mother Earth". There are scientist who back up my claim.

Quote:

And if being annoyed at the gross waste of money that our respective goverments have overseen in Iraq equates to bitterness in Innyland, then yes Im certainly bitter!




Innyland sounds like a nice place.....

You've already proven your bitter, no need to tell me.


--------------------

America....FUCK YEAH!!!

Words of Wisdom: Individual Rights BEFORE Collective Rights

"The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants." -- Thomas Jefferson


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OfflineGazzBut
Refraction

Registered: 10/15/02
Posts: 4,770
Loc: London UK
Last seen: 3 months, 29 days
Re: Surprise CO2 rise may speed up global warming [Re: Innvertigo]
    #3242090 - 10/11/04 08:20 AM (12 years, 8 months ago)

Quote:

There are scientist who back up my claim.





Firstly, what exactly is your claim because im not quite sure?
Secondly, who exactly are these scientists?


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InvisibleInnvertigo
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Re: Surprise CO2 rise may speed up global warming [Re: GazzBut]
    #3242095 - 10/11/04 08:24 AM (12 years, 8 months ago)

Quote:

Firstly, what exactly is your claim because im not quite sure?




search on the global warming toic that's been done before, I've said it a billion times and I won't again.

Quote:

Secondly, who exactly are these scientists?




I guess I can ask the same of those in the article since they say "some scientists". At least in that video they have names.


--------------------

America....FUCK YEAH!!!

Words of Wisdom: Individual Rights BEFORE Collective Rights

"The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants." -- Thomas Jefferson


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OfflineGazzBut
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Registered: 10/15/02
Posts: 4,770
Loc: London UK
Last seen: 3 months, 29 days
Re: Surprise CO2 rise may speed up global warming [Re: Innvertigo]
    #3242097 - 10/11/04 08:27 AM (12 years, 8 months ago)

Looks like I would have won my bet..I must be psychic or you must be very predictable.

As you cant provide any sources for your "claims" I will just assume you are talking out of your arse!


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InvisibleInnvertigo
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Re: Surprise CO2 rise may speed up global warming [Re: GazzBut]
    #3242101 - 10/11/04 08:32 AM (12 years, 8 months ago)

Quote:

Looks like I would have won my bet..I must be psychic or you must be very predictable.




don't flatter yourself.

Quote:

As you cant provide any sources for your "claims" I will just assume you are talking out of your arse!




:yawn:

keep doing what you do best Gazz, assume.


--------------------

America....FUCK YEAH!!!

Words of Wisdom: Individual Rights BEFORE Collective Rights

"The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants." -- Thomas Jefferson


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OfflineTao
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Re: Surprise CO2 rise may speed up global warming [Re: Innvertigo]
    #3242109 - 10/11/04 08:41 AM (12 years, 8 months ago)

If its all this abstract 'scare tactic' to reduce pollution (although really, we just need to reduce carbon emmissions, other pollution is unimportant to the problem), why did the Bush administration's policy come back saying that global warming was a serious threat? Why did the IPCC, funded by governments, come back saying that government needed to go piss off its citizens and tell them they need to drive less and receive more industrty regulations? Why are these studies not funded by the sierra club and greenpeace instead of the sparing anti-global warming studies funded by shell and exxon?

oh and your assertion that there is about a 50/50 split in the scientific community regarding the existence of global warming is simply ludicrous and clear evidence that for the most part, you really are talking completely out of your ass on this subject.


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InvisibleInnvertigo
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Re: Surprise CO2 rise may speed up global warming [Re: Tao]
    #3242122 - 10/11/04 08:49 AM (12 years, 8 months ago)

Quote:

( although really, we just need to reduce carbon emmissions, other pollution is unimportant to the problem),




I'm not sure what you mean by this but I'll say again that WE as the world need to pollute less (all polution). Penalize companies that don't comply and penalize violators that dump their shit into the water systems. But telling the world that if we don't stop, the world will heat up by predictions decades from now makes people think it's just a bunch of wacko's coming up with idiotic "theories", whether it's true or not. Be honest.

Quote:

why did the Bush administration's policy come back saying that global warming was a serious threat?




so let me get this straight, you take what bush says as gospel now?

Quote:

Why did the IPCC, funded by governments, come back saying that government needed to go piss off its citizens and tell them they need to drive less and receive more industrty regulations?




there is no doubt we are polluting the air, that's not the discussion, the discussion is whether or not it's causing Global warming. I'm all for electric cars, solar power and anything that makes the air and water cleaner. I just don't believe it's causing Global Warming.

Quote:

oh and your assertion that there is about a 50/50 split in the scientific community regarding the existence of global warming is simply ludicrous and clear evidence that for the most part, you really are talking completely out of your ass on this subject.




that's an assumption that you can't prove. That's fine if you like to be lied to, I just prefer the truth.


--------------------

America....FUCK YEAH!!!

Words of Wisdom: Individual Rights BEFORE Collective Rights

"The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants." -- Thomas Jefferson


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