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OfflineLibertarian
Stranger
Registered: 08/27/04
Posts: 123
Last seen: 9 years, 5 months
Newsweek poll is skewed
    #3091696 - 09/04/04 04:48 PM (12 years, 3 months ago)

there are millions more registered democrats than republicans, and they still managed to load their poll:

Quote:

SAMPLE SIZE/MARGIN OF ERROR FOR REGISTERED VOTERS SUBGROUPS:
1,008 Registered voters (plus or minus 4)

505 Thursday interviews (plus or minus 5)
503 Friday interviews (plus or minus 5)

374 Republicans (plus or minus 6)
303 Democrats (plus or minus 6)
300 Independents (plus or minus 6)

417 Military households (plus or minus 6)
578 Non-military households (plus or minus 5)






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OfflineJesusChrist
Son Of God
Registered: 02/19/04
Posts: 1,459
Last seen: 4 years, 2 months
Re: Newsweek poll is skewed [Re: Libertarian]
    #3091749 - 09/04/04 05:06 PM (12 years, 3 months ago)

Kerry is going down faster than a Clinton intern.


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Tastes just like chicken


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Offlinezappaisgod
horrid asshole

Registered: 02/11/04
Posts: 81,741
Loc: Fractallife's gym
Last seen: 6 months, 4 days
Re: Newsweek poll is skewed [Re: Libertarian]
    #3091817 - 09/04/04 05:34 PM (12 years, 3 months ago)

You are right that there are way more registered dems than repubs but this was a poll of "likely voters" and the repubs vote in greater numbers than dems. The poll is thus not less accurate in predicting the election because the ratios are not the same as in the general public. The ratios are similar to the actual voting trends, which is all that matters.


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OfflineLibertarian
Stranger
Registered: 08/27/04
Posts: 123
Last seen: 9 years, 5 months
Re: Newsweek poll is skewed [Re: zappaisgod]
    #3091837 - 09/04/04 05:38 PM (12 years, 3 months ago)

look at the millitary numbers, and that still doesn't justify loading it with more republicans than democrats
Quote:

Scott Rasmussen, founder of Rasmussen Reports, explains the errors in the Time magazine poll. Remember, Rasmussen is no Democratic shill, in fact he leans the other way.

On his "Scott's Page" Premium Site, of which I am a member, he gives this detailed explanation. Since it is a premium site, I can't provide a link. I will, however post it here, word for word. Maybe it will alleviate some of your anxiety, as it has done to mine.

Scott's Page by Scott Rasmussen...September 4, 2004---Time Magazine Shows Bush by 11..."A Time magazine poll released yesterday shows Bush up by 11 points. However, that poll appears to have the mirror image problem of a Los Angeles Times poll reportedly showing Kerry with a huge lead in June. As I discussed earlier in this page, the LA Times included too many Democrats in their sample. Today, it seems clear the Time Magazine included too many Republicans."

"Time reports that Republicans will vote for Bush by a 89% to 9% margin; Democrats for Kerry by 80% to 9% margin; and, unaffiliated voters for Bush 43% to 39%. When I apply some reasonable assumptions about partisan turnout (35%R to 39%D), the Time results show Bush up by about 3 percentage points. That's very close to the Rasmussen Reports data and where I believe the race stands today." Scott Rasmussen concluded.






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InvisibleKingOftheThing
the cool fool
 User Gallery

Registered: 11/17/02
Posts: 27,389
Loc: USA
Re: Newsweek poll is skewed [Re: Libertarian]
    #3092124 - 09/04/04 07:12 PM (12 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

TheEnlightenedOne said:
look at the millitary numbers, and that still doesn't justify loading it with more republicans than democrats
Quote:

Scott Rasmussen, founder of Rasmussen Reports, explains the errors in the Time magazine poll. Remember, Rasmussen is no Democratic shill, in fact he leans the other way.

On his "Scott's Page" Premium Site, of which I am a member, he gives this detailed explanation. Since it is a premium site, I can't provide a link. I will, however post it here, word for word. Maybe it will alleviate some of your anxiety, as it has done to mine.

Scott's Page by Scott Rasmussen...September 4, 2004---Time Magazine Shows Bush by 11..."A Time magazine poll released yesterday shows Bush up by 11 points. However, that poll appears to have the mirror image problem of a Los Angeles Times poll reportedly showing Kerry with a huge lead in June. As I discussed earlier in this page, the LA Times included too many Democrats in their sample. Today, it seems clear the Time Magazine included too many Republicans."

"Time reports that Republicans will vote for Bush by a 89% to 9% margin; Democrats for Kerry by 80% to 9% margin; and, unaffiliated voters for Bush 43% to 39%. When I apply some reasonable assumptions about partisan turnout (35%R to 39%D), the Time results show Bush up by about 3 percentage points. That's very close to the Rasmussen Reports data and where I believe the race stands today." Scott Rasmussen concluded.

 








aww poor jesuschrist and he was so excited that his disgusting, retarded, hick,bible banger, war-mongering candidate had the race all tied up :smirk:


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OfflineJesusChrist
Son Of God
Registered: 02/19/04
Posts: 1,459
Last seen: 4 years, 2 months
Re: Newsweek poll is skewed [Re: KingOftheThing]
    #3092146 - 09/04/04 07:20 PM (12 years, 3 months ago)

I do think it is over. I never thought Kerry honestly had a chance. We don't elect liberals.


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InvisibleKingOftheThing
the cool fool
 User Gallery

Registered: 11/17/02
Posts: 27,389
Loc: USA
Re: Newsweek poll is skewed [Re: JesusChrist]
    #3092206 - 09/04/04 07:37 PM (12 years, 3 months ago)

oh man..i really hope kerry wins now, not only for our country but so i can rub it in your face :smile: bush isnt going to win wihtout ohio and im telling you ohio is going to JFK!!!! im still feel the afterglow of seeing the man speak this morning live and in person...truly amazing...they just opened up a kerry headquarters in downtown kent, we are going to deliver him ohio.


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InvisibleKingOftheThing
the cool fool
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Registered: 11/17/02
Posts: 27,389
Loc: USA
Re: Newsweek poll is skewed [Re: KingOftheThing]
    #3092209 - 09/04/04 07:38 PM (12 years, 3 months ago)

the bush people arent registering young people like us, givng them absentee forms so they dont even have to leave their houses...its really a beautiful thing


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OfflineAncalagon
AgnosticLibertarian

Registered: 07/30/02
Posts: 1,364
Last seen: 7 years, 9 months
Re: Newsweek poll is skewed [Re: KingOftheThing]
    #3092270 - 09/04/04 07:56 PM (12 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

KingOftheThing said:
oh man..i really hope kerry wins now, not only for our country but so i can rub it in your face :smile: bush isnt going to win wihtout ohio and im telling you ohio is going to JFK!!!! im still feel the afterglow of seeing the man speak this morning live and in person...truly amazing...they just opened up a kerry headquarters in downtown kent, we are going to deliver him ohio.



It sounds as if you're actually allowing yourself to believe John Kerry would be 'good' for this country. Please tell me you have not fallen into such a trap.


--------------------
?When Alexander the Great visted the philosopher Diogenes and asked whether he could do anything for him, Diogenes is said to have replied: 'Yes, stand a little less between me and the sun.' It is what every citizen is entitled to ask of his government.?
-Henry Hazlitt in 'Economics in One Lesson'


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OfflinePhred
Fred's son
Male

Registered: 10/19/00
Posts: 12,949
Loc: Dominican Republic
Last seen: 1 year, 10 months
Re: Newsweek poll is skewed [Re: JesusChrist]
    #3092277 - 09/04/04 07:58 PM (12 years, 3 months ago)

JesusChrist writes:

We don't elect liberals.

Not exactly true. The American people do elect liberals, just not liberal presidents. There are plenty of self-professed liberals in State legislatures, a significant number in the House, and even some in the Senate.

It's just that it's the political kiss of death for a presidential candidate to be perceived as a Liberal. This is why the Kerry campaign goes apeshit whenever people point to Kerry's Senate voting record -- more liberal than even Ted Kennedy. They do everything they can to distract from any hint of Kerry's liberalism, or of Democrat liberalism in general. I point to the speeches at the Democratic National Convention as evidence.

America may some day be ready to elect a Libbie as prez, but that day isn't here yet.

pinky


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InvisibleKingOftheThing
the cool fool
 User Gallery

Registered: 11/17/02
Posts: 27,389
Loc: USA
Re: Newsweek poll is skewed [Re: Ancalagon]
    #3092281 - 09/04/04 08:00 PM (12 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:

Ancalagon said:
Quote:

KingOftheThing said:
oh man..i really hope kerry wins now, not only for our country but so i can rub it in your face :smile: bush isnt going to win wihtout ohio and im telling you ohio is going to JFK!!!! im still feel the afterglow of seeing the man speak this morning live and in person...truly amazing...they just opened up a kerry headquarters in downtown kent, we are going to deliver him ohio.



It sounds as if you're actually allowing yourself to believe John Kerry would be 'good' for this country. Please tell me you have not fallen into such a trap.





much better for this country than bush. also a kerry win will be good for you libertarians, republicans despise your party more than dems i believe. they see you as a direct threat. you've got a better chance with at being heard, especially your liberal social views.


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OfflineAncalagon
AgnosticLibertarian

Registered: 07/30/02
Posts: 1,364
Last seen: 7 years, 9 months
Re: Newsweek poll is skewed [Re: KingOftheThing]
    #3092369 - 09/04/04 08:20 PM (12 years, 3 months ago)

Quote:


much better for this country than bush.



Much better? I don't think so. We're going to get close to the same erosion of liberty, close to the same war-mongering, the same(or more) propagation of socialism and of the benevolence of the omnipotent state. You're only fooling yourself if you think Kerry will be much better.

Quote:

also a kerry win will be good for you libertarians, republicans despise your party more than dems i believe.



What do you base that belief on? They seem to both harbor the same feelings toward the ideals of libertarians: disgust. Neither the democrats nor the republicans care much(if at all) for liberty, constitutional government, free markets, and/or peace.

Quote:

they see you as a direct threat.



Don't make the mistake of differentiating so much between the republicans and the democrats. Both parties are flooded with demagogues who deplore anyone who would threaten their thrones.

Quote:

you've got a better chance with at being heard, especially your liberal social views.



Bullshit.


--------------------
?When Alexander the Great visted the philosopher Diogenes and asked whether he could do anything for him, Diogenes is said to have replied: 'Yes, stand a little less between me and the sun.' It is what every citizen is entitled to ask of his government.?
-Henry Hazlitt in 'Economics in One Lesson'


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