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Offlinest0nedphucker
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UK Crime increasing? Decreasing? Both....
    #2914942 - 07/22/04 06:50 AM (12 years, 9 months ago)

Quote:


Recorded violent crime up by 12 percent


LONDON (Reuters) - Overall crime has fallen in England and Wales in the past year although the number of violent crimes recorded by police has risen, the government says, while pledging to tackle alcohol-fuelled thuggery.

Alcohol now fuels 44 percent of all violent crime and 70 percent of Accident and Emergency hospital admissions at peak times are due to booze, said the Home Office, which has launched a summer blitz on Britain's binge-drinking culture.

Total crime dropped 5 percent in the year, accompanied by a 3 percent fall in violent crime and a reduction in home burglary and robbery, according to the British Crime Survey.

But police-recorded violent crime rose 12 percent, which the Home Office attributed in part to the effects of changes in the recording of crime and victims' willingness to come forward.

"We now need to focus more intently on low-level thuggery, anti-social behaviour and the sorts of alcohol-fuelled incidents that are recorded by the police as 'violent crime'," Home Secretary David Blunkett said in a statement.

Prime Minister Tony Blair, who launched his government's five-year anti-crime plan this week, has acknowledged the public has yet to sense a fall in crime or anti-social behaviour -- set to become top issues in a general election expected next year.

Blair's opponents say he has failed the public on crime despite 7 years in office and a pledge to be "tough on crime, tough on the causes of crime". The media frequently features images of drunken brawls or vandalism in inner cities.

As part of the government's crime strategy, about 5,000 of Britain's most persistent offenders, said by the Home Office to be responsible for 1 in 10 of all crimes, will be targeted and tagged using satellite tracking devices.

There will be more neighbourhood police teams, more community support officers and an expansion of on-the-spot fines.

Blair said the plan marked the end of "the 1960s liberal, social consensus on law and order".

The British Crime Survey showed the risk of being a victim of crime is at its lowest since its surveys began in 1951 and has fallen from 40 percent in 1995 to 26 percent in 2003.

But opinion polls show the public is worried about violent crime and a rise in gun crime, particularly following a series of high-profile shootings last year.






MSN.co.uk

Quote:



Crime: the truth
New figures reveal that crime has fallen 39 per cent over the past nine years - the biggest sustained fall since the 19th century
By Jason Bennetto, Crime Correspondent
22 July 2004


If you pick up a newspaper, turn on the television, or listen to a politician, you would think that Britain was struggling to cope with a rising tide of violence and lawlessness. Binge drinkers, gun-toting gangsters, serial sex offenders and teenage tearaways appear to hold sway over large parts of the country.

Yet Britain's most authoritive crime survey published today reveals the country is enjoying the longest sustained drop in crime for more than a century.

In the past nine years, the number of crimes experienced by people in England and Wales has fallen by 39 per cent.

The decline in some categories is quite staggering: car thefts, burglaries, domestic violence and assaults on people who are known to each other have all dropped by about half, according to the British Crime Survey (BCS). In every category of crime - including violent crime - there has been a decrease, the BCS found.

The risk of becoming a victim of crime has fallen from 40 per cent in 1995 to 26 per cent - the lowest level since the survey began in 1981.

Unlike the police's recorded crime figures, the BCS, in which 40,000 people aged 16 or over are questioned, includes details of unreported crimes - typically domestic violence, minor fights, failed burglaries, and car break-ins. Only about half of crimes are thought to be reported to the police.

The figures show an estimated 11,700,000 crimes were committed in the year ending April 2004, compared with a peak of 19,300,000 in 1995. Not since 1981, when the total was a little over 11 million, have the figures been so low.

The last time Britain enjoyed such a sustained fall in crime was in 1898 - a decade in which, ironically, Jack the Ripper was terrorising Whitechapel, east London, murdering and mutilating at least five women. But, despite the historic long-term changes, many of today's headlines will almost certainly concentrate on a second report and will highlight a 12 per cent rise in violent crime recorded by the police and a 1 per cent hike in overall recorded offences in England and Wales.

So why the huge discrepancy and why do so many people still think that crime is rising?

The main difference is the way the figures are compiled. The second report focuses on recorded crimes and are those the police make an official note of - and have been subject to sweeping changes in the past few years. In 1998, common assaults - an offence that included pushing and shoving - were recorded for the first time. In 2002, the police adopted a system that meant if anyone reports being a victim they have to be recorded on the official statistics unless it can be shown to be a bogus claim.

An example of how ludicrous that can be is the inclusion, this year, of a recorded offence of treason which was an allegation made by a resident of Essex against George Galloway, the MP for Glasgow Kelvin, for his anti-war stance.

One effect of the changes is to increase the number of recorded offences, particularly low-level violence.

Another explanation is the media's obsession with bad news and its appetite for murder, sex, and violence.

Surveys have found that readers of red-top and middle-market newspapers such as the Daily Mail have the greatest fear of crime and the fears are out of proportion with reality.

Other studies have found that when householders are questioned about crime in their neighbourhoods they have a more accurate idea of the scale; it is only when they talk about what is happening nationally that they have an exaggerated fear of being a victim.

The BCS is not, however, without its faults. It does not include crimes experienced by children under 16, or to businesses or - because it is based on face-to-face interviews - murders (of which there were 853 last year).

But it is widely considered to be the best indicator of crime trends and includes all other crimes. The massive decline in property crimes - which are also reflected in the police figures - are considered to be partly because of better security in homes. That is linked to the property boom that has seen people fitting locks and alarms as they move into their new homes.

Successive governments have also had an impact. Margaret Thatcher is credited with hand-bagging the car industry and forcing it to install better security features, such as alarms and immobilisers.

David Blunkett, meanwhile, has pressurised mobile phone companies to improve security and reverse the trend in stolen handsets.

Professor Paul Wiles, the director of research, development and statistics at the Home Office, believes there has also been a huge change in the attitude of society.

"You have had a long-term change in our attitude towards violence and the acceptability of casual violence.

"There has been a big cultural shift about what is acceptable in terms of domestic violence and the physical punishment of children."

Professor Wiles believes stability in the economy has been an important factor with fewer people out of work and less unrest, reducing the desire and opportunity for crime.

The last big increase in crime coincided with the late 1980s recession. Worryingly for the Government, statisticians have predicted a slowing economy could see crime rise by 9.5 per cent in the next four years if the criminal justice system fails to respond to the trends.

There has, however, been a genuine rise in some types of crime. Homicide has been creeping up, linked to the rise in gun crime. Offences of extreme violence associated with drugs, particularly crack cocaine dealing, are also on the rise.

But, according to Professor Wiles, the country is not seeing a rise in violent crime. The BCS says it dropped by 3 per cent in the past year and by 5 per cent in the past nine years.

"Stranger violence is not going up but it's not going down much," he said. He also said it was an "urban myth" that anti-social behaviour was on the rise and that fear of crime was increasing.

The BCS showed fear of crime was falling at the same rate as crime itself.

With the long-term decline in lawlessness, why then were Mr Blair and Mr Blunkett launching an anti-crime initiative on Monday, promising an extra 20,000 civilian Community Support Officers, and further crackdowns on anti-social behaviour?

Part of the reason is voters are still complaining about low-level crime in their neighbourhoods - vandalism and street yobs - and there is a fear the country's binge drinking culture could see a rise in violence.

Community Support Officers will provide a visible presence and Mr Blunkett is banking on them helping cut the all-important fear of crime.

The Government knows crime is going to be an election issue and is willing to invest millions to head off the Tories.

The Prime Minister and his Home Secretary have announced a five-year target of cutting crime by 15 per cent. But that apparently noble aim looked a little underhand yesterday when it emerged they were including the 5 per cent cut achieved last year. They are left with a less ambitious goal of bringing down crime by 10 per cent in four years.

Mr Blunkett insisted yesterday he did not know that the BCS, drawn up by his Home Office staff, would reveal a 5 per cent reduction in crime. Taking Mr Blunkett at his word, he already knew the results of the previous nine months.

Mark Oaten, the home affairs spokesman for the Liberal Democrats, said: "To suggest David Blunkett did not have a fair idea of these figures in advance of his statement on Monday simply beggars belief. The honest and decent thing is for him to take the latest set of figures as his starting point."

Professor Wiles concluded: "We have had nine years of decline in crime. The real challenge now is, can we keep it going down so that we are a real low-crime society."





Independent.co.uk


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OfflineGazzBut
Refraction

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Re: UK Crime increasing? Decreasing? Both.... [Re: st0nedphucker]
    #2915557 - 07/22/04 12:43 PM (12 years, 9 months ago)

Well there is alot of contradiction going on but if the police have been told to chalk up pushing and shoving as violent assault then theres no surprise their figures are up!

Its a fairly blatant and desperate attempt by Blair to try and distract from the Butler report and the furore surrounding the reaslisation that Blair is a lying sack of shit...or the victim of an incompetent intelligence service..yeah right!


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OfflinePhred
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Re: UK Crime increasing? Decreasing? Both.... [Re: GazzBut]
    #2915665 - 07/22/04 01:16 PM (12 years, 9 months ago)

GazzBut writes:

Its a fairly blatant and desperate attempt by Blair to try and distract from the Butler report and the furore surrounding the reaslisation that Blair is a lying sack of shit...or the victim of an incompetent intelligence service..yeah right!

So in England people are not capable of walking and chewing gum at the same time?

pinky


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OfflineGazzBut
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Re: UK Crime increasing? Decreasing? Both.... [Re: Phred]
    #2915680 - 07/22/04 01:19 PM (12 years, 9 months ago)

Lol! Are you seriously telling me that governments dont try and pull stunts like this to try and minimise bad publicity? Whether theses stunts work or not is another matter...


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OfflinePhred
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Re: UK Crime increasing? Decreasing? Both.... [Re: GazzBut]
    #2915692 - 07/22/04 01:22 PM (12 years, 9 months ago)

Are you seriously trying to tell me that governments must work on a single issue at a time?

As a side note, I don't understand your reference to the Butler report. Is this the same Butler report that showed that the intelligence was not in fact "sexed up" and that Iraq was in fact attempting to obtain uranium ore from Africa?

pinky


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OfflineGazzBut
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Re: UK Crime increasing? Decreasing? Both.... [Re: Phred]
    #2915757 - 07/22/04 01:43 PM (12 years, 9 months ago)

Yeah the one that said it was all the fault of the intelligence services and not the government, convenient that. Although not sexed up it did find the evidence to be poor and innacurate. All the intelligence communities fault Hmmm sounds almost identical to the findings of the senate enquiry doesnt it?

As for:
Quote:

and that Iraq was in fact attempting to obtain uranium ore from Africa?





Actually no. The report merely states that some Iraqi officials visited Niger in 1999 and as Uranium is the main Niger export the intelligence held some credibility. He does not say Iraq definitely were attempting to obtain Uranium ore.Its the same claim Powell made in his address to the UN which had already been proven by US intelligence to be false at the time of his address.

Butler contacted the IAEA regarding this matter but no mention of it was made in his report

Heres an article prior to the release of the report.

Link

"Butler asked ElBaradei for details of the Iraqi explanation, which the IAEA is believed to have now supplied. "

No mention is made of this in the final report.

This mistake has also been brought to the attention of the house. You can see the submission here if you wish:

link

Out of interest, Lynne Jones is actually a Labour MP (Thats the same party as Blair by the way.)







Kinda hard to see how the intelligence community is taking all the blame when you look at things like that.


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OfflinePhred
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Re: UK Crime increasing? Decreasing? Both.... [Re: GazzBut]
    #2915771 - 07/22/04 01:48 PM (12 years, 9 months ago)

GazzBut writes:

Yeah the one that said it was all the fault of the intelligence services and not the government, convenient that.

I guess in Britain it's different than in the US, then. In the US, the president and the cabinet don't directly run agents in the field or analyze satellite photos or translate intercepted chatter. The intelligence agencies do that. If the English leaders have to do all that themselves, then it's no wonder they haven't time to do anything else. I retract my "walking and chewing gum" comment.

pinky


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OfflineGazzBut
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Re: UK Crime increasing? Decreasing? Both.... [Re: Phred]
    #2915810 - 07/22/04 01:57 PM (12 years, 9 months ago)

No no no...you misunderstand. I believe the Intelligence provided was far more accurate than we are being told. I believe the government definitely did sex it up and add little tidbits themselves. This sexing up of the intel was basically what led Robin Cook to resign from the government in protest, and he had long been one of Blair's closest allies. The intelligence community have simply been scapegoated, which is convenient, as they are the part of the government that doesnt have to face the public vote.

You can believe the Butler report if you want, but lets face it, if the Uranium claim is a load of old cobblers what makes you think the rest of it is actually true huh?


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OfflinePhred
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Re: UK Crime increasing? Decreasing? Both.... [Re: GazzBut]
    #2915906 - 07/22/04 02:18 PM (12 years, 9 months ago)

But the Uranium report is not a load of old cobblers. Iraq was trying to obtain uranium ore from African sources. The Joseph Wilson affair has shown that.

However, we stray further and further off topic. Is England's crime rate increasing oe decreasing?

pinky


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OfflineGazzBut
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Re: UK Crime increasing? Decreasing? Both.... [Re: Phred]
    #2915934 - 07/22/04 02:30 PM (12 years, 9 months ago)

The Joseph Wilson affair proves that Iraq were trying to obtain Uranium from Niger in 1999? or is it the early 90's..im not familiar with this affair so you will have to enlighten me!

As for the crime rate, with such differing reports its hard to say but its interesting to note that peoples appraisal of crime in their own area (i.e with their own eyes and ears) does not make them feel particularly threatened, it is only when they turn their attention to the country at large (i.e media coverage) that their feelings of threat rise.

Personally, I dont see much change but if I had to pick a direction Id probabaly say decrease but thats hardly objective proof now is it!


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InvisibleXlea321
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Re: UK Crime increasing? Decreasing? Both.... [Re: GazzBut]
    #2915969 - 07/22/04 02:38 PM (12 years, 9 months ago)

How come crime is decreasing if we don't have guns? Surely the gun loons have always insisted that cannot happen?  :eek:


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Offlinemntlfngrs
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Re: UK Crime increasing? Decreasing? Both.... [Re: Xlea321]
    #2916073 - 07/22/04 03:00 PM (12 years, 9 months ago)

If you would say that the drug war is failing because for one of many reasons, illegalizing drugs doesn't stop the flow and people who want them still get them, then why would you say it would be different with guns?

Not saying you said that but I'm going on a limb here to say that I bet you have.

As far as the discrepancy in the articles, seems obvious that it is a difference in the time frame and the way the numbers are crunched.


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Be all and you'll be to end all


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OfflineGazzBut
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Re: UK Crime increasing? Decreasing? Both.... [Re: Xlea321]
    #2919615 - 07/23/04 09:40 AM (12 years, 9 months ago)

Thats exactly what i was thinking! Thank god there is no room for justifying adopting cowboy gun laws!!


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InvisibleXlea321
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Re: UK Crime increasing? Decreasing? Both.... [Re: mntlfngrs]
    #2920291 - 07/23/04 02:05 PM (12 years, 9 months ago)

Not saying you said that but I'm going on a limb here to say that I bet you have.

What odds are you giving?  :laugh:

illegalizing drugs doesn't stop the flow

Not sure about that. Surely it makes it a lot harder than if you could walk into your local supermarket and pick up a kilo of pharmaceutical quality coke.

then why would you say it would be different with guns?

But guns arn't the same thing are they. I don't mind someone taking drugs. I do mind every asshole walking round with a gun. I've never seen a gun on the streets in the UK in my life. They really arn't that common. My guess is guns being illegal is a fairly major contributing factor in that.


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InvisibleXlea321
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Re: UK Crime increasing? Decreasing? Both.... [Re: GazzBut]
    #2920303 - 07/23/04 02:07 PM (12 years, 9 months ago)

Thats exactly what i was thinking! Thank god there is no room for justifying adopting cowboy gun laws!!

The cowboys ain't gonna like that.. :laugh:


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Anonymous

Re: UK Crime increasing? Decreasing? Both.... [Re: Xlea321]
    #2920320 - 07/23/04 02:12 PM (12 years, 9 months ago)

:yawn:

is it time for another "debate" about the relationship between private gun ownership and violent crime?


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InvisibleXlea321
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Re: UK Crime increasing? Decreasing? Both.... [Re: ]
    #2920340 - 07/23/04 02:16 PM (12 years, 9 months ago)

Doesn't look like there's much room for one with these figures.

:shrug:


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Don't worry, B. Caapi


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Anonymous

Re: UK Crime increasing? Decreasing? Both.... [Re: Xlea321]
    #2920353 - 07/23/04 02:19 PM (12 years, 9 months ago)

what do you mean?


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InvisibleXlea321
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Re: UK Crime increasing? Decreasing? Both.... [Re: ]
    #2920394 - 07/23/04 02:30 PM (12 years, 9 months ago)

:sleeping:


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Offlinemntlfngrs
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Re: UK Crime increasing? Decreasing? Both.... [Re: Xlea321]
    #2920452 - 07/23/04 02:48 PM (12 years, 9 months ago)

Quote:

Alex123 said:
Not saying you said that but I'm going on a limb here to say that I bet you have.

What odds are you giving?  :laugh:

illegalizing drugs doesn't stop the flow

Not sure about that. Surely it makes it a lot harder than if you could walk into your local supermarket and pick up a kilo of pharmaceutical quality coke.

then why would you say it would be different with guns?

But guns arn't the same thing are they. I don't mind someone taking drugs. I do mind every asshole walking round with a gun. I've never seen a gun on the streets in the UK in my life. They really arn't that common. My guess is guns being illegal is a fairly major contributing factor in that.




Your right. Pretty much just keeps things out of the hands of responsible people and in the hands of dirtbags that hang in the underground. I've never seen guns in public besides shooting ranges and when we go camping.


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Be all and you'll be to end all


Edited by mntlfngrs (07/23/04 03:11 PM)


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