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Seriously_trippin
Cosmic Guru Ganesh



Registered: 07/12/13
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I was told on the shreomey about a year ago that in 6 months.. 3
#28659985 - 02/14/24 07:04 PM (4 months, 10 days ago) |
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We'd have a recession. There was a thread I can't find where I bet several people here we wouldn't go into a recession in 6 months (close to a year ago) and I was called stupid and that we were definitely going to be in a recession in 6 months. Surprise surprise we aren't in a recession
I think this illustrated that almost ALL of this talk about imminent recession was complete bullshit. And I know exactly why, it's because they listened to the conservative right whether it be Jim jordan,Matt Walsh or anyone in between including trump. What it boils down to is people especially on the right hate Joe Biden and they want it to be true that we are going into a recession because of him because that's convient for their political rhetoric.
I think it's as simple as a couple of things #1 the president doesn't have much to do with recessions. The federal reserve, Market prices, stock prices, interest rates and the housing market has way more to do with recessions then any one president and #2 We've actually seen some improvement in unemployment and other areas its just not popular with the sheep to hear that.
Anyways those who bet me you lost
Also I'm not saying Biden is amazing or anything in fact he's just a tiny better then trump in my eyes and I really don't like trump. They're both turds
I'm just saying it was an overreaction caused by listening to political pundits and politicians and alot of you bought it hook line and sinker
-------------------- R.I.P Zombi3, Blue Helix Modest Mouse Zappa, Jellyfish Slothie That Kid With The face ShLong Le Canard split_by_nine & Big Worm Forever Etched in the sands of time in the shroomery and ever so beloved and deeply missed by many
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Kryptos
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Re: I was told on the shreomey about a year ago that in 6 months.. [Re: Seriously_trippin]
#28660012 - 02/14/24 07:26 PM (4 months, 10 days ago) |
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Here's the data to back you up.
Democratic perceptions of the economy:

Republican perceptions of the economy:

You will note that one is relatively steady, and matches closely with the actual state of the economy (note scale):

While the other tends to shift wildly right around election season.
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Seriously_trippin
Cosmic Guru Ganesh



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Re: I was told on the shreomey about a year ago that in 6 months.. [Re: Kryptos]
#28660031 - 02/14/24 07:44 PM (4 months, 10 days ago) |
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Damn seeing it in a graph is pretty funny and sad Biden gets elected we pass the inflation reduction act and just automatically from day one on the conservative side is just pretending we're in the great depression again. Very interesting
-------------------- R.I.P Zombi3, Blue Helix Modest Mouse Zappa, Jellyfish Slothie That Kid With The face ShLong Le Canard split_by_nine & Big Worm Forever Etched in the sands of time in the shroomery and ever so beloved and deeply missed by many
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SirTripAlot
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Re: I was told on the shreomey about a year ago that in 6 months.. [Re: Seriously_trippin]
#28660043 - 02/14/24 07:51 PM (4 months, 10 days ago) |
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You should lookup who you bet. Since a recession is two quarters in timeframe, no one knows we are officially in a recession for half a year (6 months)...in other words once a recession is declared, it was in the past before anyone knew it.
Now, the FED just put out 3.1% inflation in January which is way past the 2% they strive for, granted its better than the 9% we saw not to long ago. IF inflation is not brought down consistently and over a sustained period of time....it could cause a cost-push. That can definely cause a recession.
In my own life, I am cautiously optomistic but inflation is the biggest issue here. What do I know...rumor has it that traders used to look at the thickness of former FED chair Greenspans briefcase thickness in determing if he was gonna raise rates...he denies this but you think he would admit it?
-------------------- “I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer. Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration. I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me. And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path. Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain.”
Edited by SirTripAlot (02/14/24 07:53 PM)
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Seriously_trippin
Cosmic Guru Ganesh



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Re: I was told on the shreomey about a year ago that in 6 months.. [Re: SirTripAlot]
#28660051 - 02/14/24 08:02 PM (4 months, 10 days ago) |
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I tried I'll have to go back In threads quite a bit back but yeah 6 months was just what they heard from these conservative pundits and they repeated it I think. You're right financial quarters don't work like that. Inflation is definitely real, the fed raising rates keeps us out of the recession along with many other factors but inflation is a real problem.
The issue is inflation is a multifaceted problem with alot of people and world events to affecting it. If inflation were high under trump I'd say the sane thing that the president plays a very small role in the entirety of inflation. Same thing with the stock market the president really doesn't affect the stock market much as long as their doing their job sufficiently.
I'm guessing the peeps I made the bet with won't pop into this thread though because they don't want to be wrong and it's hard to argue with facts.
-------------------- R.I.P Zombi3, Blue Helix Modest Mouse Zappa, Jellyfish Slothie That Kid With The face ShLong Le Canard split_by_nine & Big Worm Forever Etched in the sands of time in the shroomery and ever so beloved and deeply missed by many
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gww
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Re: I was told on the shreomey about a year ago that in 6 months.. [Re: SirTripAlot]
#28660057 - 02/14/24 08:08 PM (4 months, 10 days ago) |
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Two by four boards were 9 bucks and you couldn't get toilet paper or alcohol during covid. I agree that presidents only have minute amount of control over the economy. However, many places did shut down and biden did do his best to help with shipping and when russia went to war did make adjustments to his policies to address oil and such and has handled stuff that comes up well enough that we pretty well stayed in a better position then the world on a world wide inflation problem. It was not just us and his decisions probably mitigated our allies problems a bit as well. His moves and policies are bringing more manufacture jobs when comparing to past trends. Labor is doing well. He did not create a situation where he had to pay farmers twice what he claimed he was saving them. His old man experience of what he has to work with and how things work have been a great boon and he has been able to appoint people to help him whose sole goal was not what they could personally steal using america.
Edited by gww (02/14/24 08:12 PM)
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The Ecstatic
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Re: I was told on the shreomey about a year ago that in 6 months.. [Re: gww]
#28660744 - 02/15/24 12:27 PM (4 months, 9 days ago) |
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The stock market is up, and wages are up, but so is credit card delinquency, homelessness, and hunger.
Maybe we just box enough people out that the train keeps rolling, but I don’t think we can keep up like this forever. The Fed is planning to cut interest rates in about 6 months (just before the election), and I don’t see the economy collapsing before then.
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Stable Genius
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Re: I was told on the shreomey about a year ago that in 6 months.. [Re: Seriously_trippin]
#28669113 - 02/21/24 03:35 AM (4 months, 3 days ago) |
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Well normally 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth is labelled a recession, well over here anyway but apparently not so this time around. SG scratches his head.
I'm not even going to try and explain the gobbledy gook word salad answer in the link below.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/07/28/recession-gdp-politics/
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Brian Jones
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Re: I was told on the shreomey about a year ago that in 6 months.. [Re: Stable Genius]
#28669194 - 02/21/24 06:03 AM (4 months, 3 days ago) |
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The link is behind a paywall. We had two consecutive quarters of negative growth during pandemic. What's the current issue?
-------------------- "The Rolling Stones will break up over Brian Jones' dead body" John Lennon I don't want no commies in my car. No Christians either. The worst thing about corruption is that it works so well,
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Ice9
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Re: I was told on the shreomey about a year ago that in 6 months.. [Re: Stable Genius]
#28669280 - 02/21/24 07:58 AM (4 months, 3 days ago) |
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Quote:
Stable Genius said: Well normally 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth is labelled a recession, well over here anyway but apparently not so this time around. SG scratches his head.
I'm not even going to try and explain the gobbledy gook word salad answer in the link below.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/07/28/recession-gdp-politics/
You realize that was in 2022? Right? Right? Maybe not, since not declaring a recession was the correct move as GDP growth surged after https://www.bea.gov/news/2024/gross-domestic-product-fourth-quarter-and-year-2023-advance-estimate
-------------------- The reasonable man adapts himself to the world; the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore, all progress depends on the unreasonable man. -- George Bernard Shaw
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Kryptos
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Re: I was told on the shreomey about a year ago that in 6 months.. [Re: Ice9]
#28669306 - 02/21/24 08:13 AM (4 months, 3 days ago) |
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Still should have been declared a recession. No point having definitions if you don't use them.
A very short recession followed by a pretty significant recovery.
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Ice9
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Re: I was told on the shreomey about a year ago that in 6 months.. [Re: Kryptos]
#28669346 - 02/21/24 08:40 AM (4 months, 3 days ago) |
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But it's not the definition of a recession though don't know where you guys are getting that. It's a common and important indicator, but that's all. https://www.whitehouse.gov/cea/written-materials/2022/07/21/how-do-economists-determine-whether-the-economy-is-in-a-recession/
-------------------- The reasonable man adapts himself to the world; the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore, all progress depends on the unreasonable man. -- George Bernard Shaw
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Stable Genius
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Re: I was told on the shreomey about a year ago that in 6 months.. [Re: Brian Jones]
#28669787 - 02/21/24 01:40 PM (4 months, 3 days ago) |
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Quote:
Brian Jones said: The link is behind a paywall. We had two consecutive quarters of negative growth during pandemic. What's the current issue?
I thought Seriously_trippin’ said he was talking about this a year ago, and it’s mid February now, which I thought lined up with the end of those 2 consecutive quarters.
In regards the WaPo pay wall I just signed up with an email and get to read articles for free now, well so far anyway. Same with the South China Post.
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Stable Genius
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Re: I was told on the shreomey about a year ago that in 6 months.. [Re: Ice9]
#28669804 - 02/21/24 01:52 PM (4 months, 3 days ago) |
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Quote:
Ice9 said:
Quote:
Stable Genius said: Well normally 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth is labelled a recession, well over here anyway but apparently not so this time around. SG scratches his head.
I'm not even going to try and explain the gobbledy gook word salad answer in the link below.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/07/28/recession-gdp-politics/
You realize that was in 2022? Right? Right? Maybe not, since not declaring a recession was the correct move as GDP growth surged after
Yeah that makes sense and I’m not arguing that the U.S. economy didn’t bounce back, all I’m saying is I thought you did have a brief one. Just because it wasn’t declared is what I was scratching my head over, but I accept other factors come into play… and the coof pushed economies way out of whack as well.
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