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OfflineKryptos
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Another election goes blue. * 1
    #28659007 - 02/13/24 09:49 PM (4 months, 10 days ago)

The GOP hasn't been winning much lately, have they?

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Offlinekoods
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Re: Another election goes blue. [Re: Kryptos] * 1
    #28659049 - 02/13/24 10:17 PM (4 months, 10 days ago)

I wonder how long it will take before they realize how toxic the GOP brand is.


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NotSheekle said
“if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”

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Invisibledurian_2008
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Re: Another election goes blue. [Re: koods]
    #28659122 - 02/13/24 11:40 PM (4 months, 10 days ago)

He was going to have the same basic rules, but what revulses you is him wrapping it in an American flag.

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OfflineThe Ecstatic
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Re: Another election goes blue. [Re: koods]
    #28659241 - 02/14/24 05:34 AM (4 months, 10 days ago)

Quote:

koods said:
I wonder how long it will take before they realize how toxic the GOP brand is.




Maybe if Democrats can go more than 2 years without hemorrhaging a legislative majority we’ll see.


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OfflineSirTripAlot
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Re: Another election goes blue. [Re: The Ecstatic]
    #28659250 - 02/14/24 06:16 AM (4 months, 10 days ago)

I have been trying to read the political tea leaves and its not clear to me. Either the Dems want to create a nailbiter of a Biden v Trump election, or they know/ calculated something that will make Bidens election all but a certainty.

Typically, whatever party wins the election, the opposite gains seats in Congress. Whether that was factoring a favorable decision from the SC regarding the 14th or some undisclosed thing yet to manifest,  I think, sets the stage for the biggest October suprise any of us has ever seen.

Short of a geriatric funky chicken death roll on live TV, they seem all in on Biden.
.


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“I must not fear.
Fear is the mind-killer.
Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration.
I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me.
And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path.
Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain.”

Edited by SirTripAlot (02/14/24 06:16 AM)

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OfflineKryptos
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Re: Another election goes blue. [Re: SirTripAlot]
    #28659318 - 02/14/24 07:54 AM (4 months, 10 days ago)

I'm guessing the logic is a lot simpler, arguably stupider, and vaguely arcane: Biden beat Trump once.

Just like how every politician stops at that one diner that Reagan or whoever the fuck are at before winning. It's all superstition, since election wins are ephemeral and periodic at best. There are very few consistent rules.

But every election in the last 2-3 years has gone pretty strongly to the Democrats. Santos's seat just swung from +7ish R to +10ish D. Almost a 20 point swing. This is, in my mind, great news for Biden.

Now we just need a few more clips of trump sundowning and I think Democrats are looking pretty strong going into election season.

Also, we need topics that aren't the same three arguments repeated for months/years in the war threads.

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OfflineThe Ecstatic
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Re: Another election goes blue. [Re: SirTripAlot]
    #28659326 - 02/14/24 08:08 AM (4 months, 10 days ago)

The post-Dobbs swing has been good for Democrats, but I don’t see it amounting to too much, at least not enough to swing things away from the current paradigm.

That paradigm being:

- Dems win presidency, slim majority in Congress, and a fucked up Senate: sorry can’t do anything bc McConnell.

- GOP wins presidency, slim majority in Congress, and a fucked up Senate: unlimited right wing power.


So long as the filibuster exists, and 45+ red Senate seats are a virtual certainty, the right will maintain a stranglehold on power. There is zero incentive to do anything about this.


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Edited by The Ecstatic (02/14/24 08:28 AM)

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OfflineKryptos
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Re: Another election goes blue. [Re: The Ecstatic]
    #28659347 - 02/14/24 08:38 AM (4 months, 10 days ago)

That's true, for a very surface-level view of politics, where power is defined less by action and more by bluster.

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OfflineThe Ecstatic
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Re: Another election goes blue. [Re: Kryptos]
    #28659353 - 02/14/24 08:41 AM (4 months, 10 days ago)

At this point I’d settle for some Democratic bluster.

But what lesson am I supposed to learn here with regards to MAGA destroying the GOP when the Democrats are trying to pass a border bill that would make the 2016 Trump campaign blush?


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Onlinegww
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Re: Another election goes blue. [Re: The Ecstatic]
    #28659432 - 02/14/24 10:27 AM (4 months, 10 days ago)

I haven't agreed with a lot of your post lately but think you did hit this on the head of the nail.  Now if you could just get enough voters out of the habit of enjoying kicking down, the democratic would win all three and not be so inclined to have to swollow as much shit.  If you can't get elected, your ideals don't count good or bad.  Even with this, the democratic platform is the only thing with a chance of saving us from the real bad of the current republican/cult that is now.

Edited by gww (02/14/24 10:29 AM)

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OfflineThe Ecstatic
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Re: Another election goes blue. [Re: gww]
    #28659500 - 02/14/24 11:16 AM (4 months, 10 days ago)

I think the Democratic Party’s impotence is a feature, not a bug.

What happens to the ruling class when one of the two parties can suddenly sustain power with the explicit voter mandate of regulating industry, raising taxes, and expanding social programs? Cant have that. And so long as the Democrats are a bunch of perennial losers, it won’t happen.


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Onlinegww
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Re: Another election goes blue. [Re: The Ecstatic]
    #28659528 - 02/14/24 11:44 AM (4 months, 10 days ago)

When they have had power they made incremental steps.  Perhaps not the kind of leaps I would have liked but forward instead of backwards.  Many time even the small steps ended up with next elections turning the other way for a bit.  The people have enough of a say that switches are just small implemental steps.  It takes a long time and needs buy in to make any steps and buy in is a slow thing more then not.  A step forward is still better then the steps back.

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OfflineKryptos
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Re: Another election goes blue. [Re: The Ecstatic]
    #28659546 - 02/14/24 11:53 AM (4 months, 10 days ago)

Quote:

The Ecstatic said:
At this point I’d settle for some Democratic bluster.

But what lesson am I supposed to learn here with regards to MAGA destroying the GOP when the Democrats are trying to pass a border bill that would make the 2016 Trump campaign blush?




Pretty sure that border bill is the democratic bluster you so crave.

Fact is, when you look at the parties, you see that one is full of people with degrees in political science, economics, social studies, and history; while the other is full of communications and marketing degrees. Only paying attention to the surface, you'll obviously only be hearing from one side.

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OfflineThe Ecstatic
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Re: Another election goes blue. [Re: gww]
    #28659549 - 02/14/24 11:55 AM (4 months, 10 days ago)

Quote:

gww said:
When they have had power they made incremental steps.  Perhaps not the kind of leaps I would have liked but forward instead of backwards.  Many time even the small steps ended up with next elections turning the other way for a bit.  The people have enough of a say that switches are just small implemental steps.  It takes a long time and needs buy in to make any steps and buy in is a slow thing more then not.  A step forward is still better then the steps back.




Maybe the lesson to losing immediately after playing it safe for decades on end is to change the playbook.


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OfflineThe Ecstatic
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Re: Another election goes blue. [Re: Kryptos]
    #28659550 - 02/14/24 11:57 AM (4 months, 10 days ago)

Quote:

Kryptos said:
Quote:

The Ecstatic said:
At this point I’d settle for some Democratic bluster.

But what lesson am I supposed to learn here with regards to MAGA destroying the GOP when the Democrats are trying to pass a border bill that would make the 2016 Trump campaign blush?




Pretty sure that border bill is the democratic bluster you so crave.

Fact is, when you look at the parties, you see that one is full of people with degrees in political science, economics, social studies, and history; while the other is full of communications and marketing degrees. Only paying attention to the surface, you'll obviously only be hearing from one side.




I’m not sure how it’s bluster.

The Dems want to keep funding the wars so the GOP is demanding more fascism on the border to get that. The Dems capitulated, and all indications are that this will be hammered out in the coming days.

Of course, the Dems could simply refuse to capitulate, but then Gazan children would stop dying :feelsbadman:


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OfflineKryptos
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Re: Another election goes blue. [Re: The Ecstatic] * 1
    #28659655 - 02/14/24 01:44 PM (4 months, 10 days ago)

It's bluster because it's way more likely that Democrats used the border bill to set a trap for Republicans. If they wanted to capitulate, they would have capitulated long ago. If they capitulate in an election year, they either disarm the upcoming migrant caravan messaging or have Republicans on record voting against border security.

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Offlinelifeiswhatyoumake
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Re: Another election goes blue. [Re: koods]
    #28659942 - 02/14/24 06:27 PM (4 months, 10 days ago)

Quote:

koods said:
I wonder how long it will take before they realize how toxic the GOP brand is.





They will never realize it.  When your brain is toxic it's impossible to believe you are toxic, it's just what you're used to.  So they think "normal" things are toxic, like having the right to abortion, gender affirming care, letting people vote for who they want since we are a democracy, etc.

Only a few lucky members of their group will be able to shift their brain to reality and see what they were...

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OfflineThe Ecstatic
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Re: Another election goes blue. [Re: Kryptos]
    #28659965 - 02/14/24 06:43 PM (4 months, 10 days ago)

Quote:

Kryptos said:
It's bluster because it's way more likely that Democrats used the border bill to set a trap for Republicans. If they wanted to capitulate, they would have capitulated long ago. If they capitulate in an election year, they either disarm the upcoming migrant caravan messaging or have Republicans on record voting against border security.




Mm I think you’re giving the American electorate way too much credit, but thanks for clarifying.

I can see the political calculus at work here, but ultimately what will happen is the democrats take two steps to the right on policy in order to continue a war that their own base disapproves of. All this in order to appeal to moderates who haven’t considered until now that the republicans are hypocrites acting in bad faith. Idk…


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OfflineKryptos
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Re: Another election goes blue. [Re: The Ecstatic] * 1
    #28660005 - 02/14/24 07:21 PM (4 months, 10 days ago)

I don't believe that a majority of the democratic base does not support Israel.

I believe that the chronically online portion of the base does not support Israel.

I believe that a majority of the democratic base, which includes a fair number of independents if Biden or any democrat ever want to be elected, doesn't really give a flying fuck as to Israel, Palestine, or any of that malarkey. What they will end up caring about is the GOP attack ads featuring Biden with a hitler stashe if he cuts off support to Israel.

Just as much of a political calculation.

By my reading of the situation, the diplomacy went something like this: Biden told Netanyahu to chill out, and Netanyahu told Biden to get fucked and that he would do whatever he wanted, then outlined the above situation. All of which both Biden and his campaign manager/strategists were very well aware of.

So Biden and his people likely made the political calculation that the portion of his base that is very online is likely to also vote blue anyway because of all the other very online bullshit, and that losing a small portion of his very online base is worth not losing independent voters.

Edit: By independents, I don't mean actual independents, those are like actual libertarians--entirely fictional. I mean the low info voter that pays no attention to politics but still drags their asses to the polls for some reason with an opinion formed entirely by the content of the last hour of TV/Youtube they watched. At least they're slightly better than those that stay home.

Edited by Kryptos (02/14/24 07:29 PM)

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OfflineThe Ecstatic
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Re: Another election goes blue. [Re: Kryptos]
    #28660746 - 02/15/24 12:31 PM (4 months, 9 days ago)

Supporting Israel is one thing but supporting the current slaughter in Gaza is another.

80+% of Dems want a ceasefire, but yeah I’d bet support for Israel or a similarly ambiguous poll would still see 50+% support.

But yeah I agree with the decision making process of the White House.


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