|
Mickalopagus
living in perverty



Registered: 07/06/04
Posts: 15,084
Last seen: 8 hours, 57 minutes
|
Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills]
#28636888 - 01/27/24 12:30 PM (3 months, 19 days ago) |
|
|
Holy moly that correlation chart blew my mind. Why would they follow each other so closely
-------------------- notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... " ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."
|
tomnl
Beginner



Registered: 06/16/08
Posts: 1,661
Loc: Under the shroom
Last seen: 2 hours, 59 minutes
|
Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Mickalopagus]
#28636927 - 01/27/24 01:14 PM (3 months, 19 days ago) |
|
|
21 fresh titanium Squirrelbits coins just dropped on Bitcointalk collectibles forum. Sold out in minutes...



Greets Tom
-------------------- Been away so long I hardly knew the place Gee, it's good to be back home Leave it till tomorrow to unpack my case Honey disconnect the phone I'm back in the USSA You don't know how lucky you are, boy Back in the US Back in the US Back in the USSA
Edited by tomnl (01/27/24 01:15 PM)
|
geokills
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙


Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,698
Loc: city of angels
Last seen: 22 hours, 6 minutes
|
Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Mickalopagus]
#28637175 - 01/27/24 05:04 PM (3 months, 19 days ago) |
|
|
Quote:
blackhawk said: Geo, what are your thoughts on the markets when we start dropping interest rates? There's only one data point for the pandemic, I'm wondering if we will start seeing corrections.
Corrections don't seem likely, unless we see expectations turn toward a longer than expected period of high interest rates due to something like inflation surging again. An interest rate lowering cycle (aka "looser" or "accommodative" monetary policy) increases liquidity, and the nature of extra money seeking to generate a return effectively works to prop up risk assets. Lower interest rates also increase any company's ability to either pay down debt or take on new relatively low cost debt to finance growth/expansion, further boosting the fundamental backdrop for equity shares.
Quote:
ManianFH said: Holy moly that correlation chart blew my mind. Why would they follow each other so closely
Same reason as above. If money is flowing freely, it seeks out opportunities to generate a return (whereas if liquidity is tight and debt expensive, any available liquidity is more likely to be used to pay down high interest debt without as much leftover to invest/bid up prices elsewhere).
Risk assets like crypto benefit generally when there is excess liquidity in the system, but there is a secondary relationship with bitcoin specifically, since it is considered "ultrasound" money that is not subject to government/central bank manipulation or runaway inflation, and thus when liquidity floods the global financial landscape, this tends to result in currency devaluation and inflationary pressure, as all that extra money begins to bid up prices of nearly everything in the marketplace from homes to stocks to eggs at the grocery store and most things in between. Bitcoin is specifically designed to be insulated from devaluation due to supply inflation.
--------------------
-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
|
geokills
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙


Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,698
Loc: city of angels
Last seen: 22 hours, 6 minutes
|
Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills]
#28639065 - 01/29/24 08:16 AM (3 months, 18 days ago) |
|
|
With the Jup.ag JUP token airdrop coming up in a couple of days, there's a little follow on shitcoin airdrop for anyone interested. The $WEN token, which is "the first poem token launched using Jupiter's new LFG launchpad" (you can't make this shit up ).
If you have interacted with Jup.ag (swapping more than $5 in volume within the past 6 months), your wallet qualifies to claim 643,652 $WEN, currently equal to ~$100. I engaged with the claim contract days ago and it is viable. Not giving out much, but hey, free money is free money! If you've used Jup.ag, claim your 643,652 $WEN here: https://lfg.jup.ag/wen
--------------------
-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
|
Mickalopagus
living in perverty



Registered: 07/06/04
Posts: 15,084
Last seen: 8 hours, 57 minutes
|
Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills]
#28640017 - 01/29/24 10:44 PM (3 months, 17 days ago) |
|
|
Super cool man, I plan on doing this also. Tried earlier today but experienced technical difficulties
-------------------- notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... " ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."
|
tomnl
Beginner



Registered: 06/16/08
Posts: 1,661
Loc: Under the shroom
Last seen: 2 hours, 59 minutes
|
Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Mickalopagus]
#28648846 - 02/06/24 11:16 AM (3 months, 9 days ago) |
|
|
Oops SOL did it again🎶
-------------------- Been away so long I hardly knew the place Gee, it's good to be back home Leave it till tomorrow to unpack my case Honey disconnect the phone I'm back in the USSA You don't know how lucky you are, boy Back in the US Back in the US Back in the USSA
|
Mickalopagus
living in perverty



Registered: 07/06/04
Posts: 15,084
Last seen: 8 hours, 57 minutes
|
Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: tomnl] 1
#28649761 - 02/06/24 11:26 PM (3 months, 9 days ago) |
|
|
an outage? man i didnt even know stuff like this could happen in crypto
-------------------- notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... " ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."
|
Mickalopagus
living in perverty



Registered: 07/06/04
Posts: 15,084
Last seen: 8 hours, 57 minutes
|
Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Mickalopagus]
#28653959 - 02/10/24 09:53 AM (3 months, 5 days ago) |
|
|
Wow, big move up for BTC. The wish I would’ve bought crowds might be looking soon haha
-------------------- notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... " ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."
|
The Blind Ass
Bodhi



Registered: 08/16/16
Posts: 27,995
Loc: The Primordial Mind
|
Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills]
#28656217 - 02/11/24 10:08 PM (3 months, 4 days ago) |
|
|
Quote:
geokills said: With the Jup.ag JUP token airdrop coming up in a couple of days, there's a little follow on shitcoin airdrop for anyone interested. The $WEN token, which is "the first poem token launched using Jupiter's new LFG launchpad" (you can't make this shit up ).
If you have interacted with Jup.ag (swapping more than $5 in volume within the past 6 months), your wallet qualifies to claim 643,652 $WEN, currently equal to ~$100. I engaged with the claim contract days ago and it is viable. Not giving out much, but hey, free money is free money! If you've used Jup.ag, claim your 643,652 $WEN here: https://lfg.jup.ag/wen
ty, good looks. 
 
Btw, Geo. Do you have any good ideas you care to share about ways one could go about managing one's cryptolio more wisely with respect to the incoming halfsies of circulating bitcoinios? 
-------------------- Give me Liberty caps -or- give me Death caps
|
geokills
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙


Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,698
Loc: city of angels
Last seen: 22 hours, 6 minutes
|
Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: The Blind Ass] 1
#28656611 - 02/12/24 11:02 AM (3 months, 3 days ago) |
|
|
To be fair, the bitcoin halving is a 50% reduction in the block subsidy (aka mining reward), not a 50% reduction in circulating bitcoins. Nevertheless, the reduction of the block subsidy does have some affect on circulation, as new supply is effectively reduced, and in conjunction with the recently launched ETF's that now hold over 1% of circulating supply, continued demand should theoretically produce a proportionally larger upside price move, as there is less supply available, which can then therefore be more easily shocked by any sustained increase in demand.
On the other hand, I'm weary of anything in trading that begins to feel like a foregone conclusion. The bitcoin halving cycle has historically led to some shockingly consistent bull market accelerations, but this relationship cannot last forever. I'm not saying it won't happen again this time, indeed so far we seem to playing pretty perfectly in tune with the historical pattern. But I just don't like to prognosticate too much. I like to follow price.
So long as we keep moving higher, I will remain concentrated in the leadership, which are Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana. Solana has leapfrogged all of my positions once again, due to its relative outperformance off of the bottom, including having sold tranches all the way up to $120, and buying them all back on the subsequent retracement between $80-$101.50. Given that Ethereum is valued at over 6.5X Solana's current market capitalization, and as Solana has been showing accelerated growth and quite simply, a preferable user experience with regard to fluidity/speed and insignificant transaction fees, I see little reason not to believe that Solana has considerable room to run. Simply to reach parity with Ethereum would value each SOL at ~$715.
There are a handful of other interesting projects to be sure, and I do maintain some exposure to these more speculative options (e.g. KOIN), but I believe that the big three are where you want to concentrate your capital, with Solana as a particularly attractive target for the highest probability near term upside with relatively strong downside stability.
--------------------
-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
|
tomnl
Beginner



Registered: 06/16/08
Posts: 1,661
Loc: Under the shroom
Last seen: 2 hours, 59 minutes
|
Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills]
#28666360 - 02/19/24 06:30 AM (2 months, 28 days ago) |
|
|
Just a gut feeling. But tethered up 30% of my portfolio today. If nothing else, i will use this part to diversify some more and get a little less skin in the game, to pay for upcoming expenses.
Greets Tom
-------------------- Been away so long I hardly knew the place Gee, it's good to be back home Leave it till tomorrow to unpack my case Honey disconnect the phone I'm back in the USSA You don't know how lucky you are, boy Back in the US Back in the US Back in the USSA
|
geokills
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙


Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,698
Loc: city of angels
Last seen: 22 hours, 6 minutes
|
Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: tomnl]
#28669920 - 02/21/24 03:22 PM (2 months, 25 days ago) |
|
|
I get it, we've moved a lot. Makes sense to protect some profit that you can redeploy later.
Some notes I posted elsewhere earlier today...
In my view, the simpler your chart looks, the clearer (and thus easier to manage) your approach will be. Too much data on the chart and you just start making up reasons to either get into a trade at the wrong time, or keep a trade alive because there's always some other indicator you can turn to in redefining your thesis. When you take a trade, you need to have your risk defined at entry, period.

Now that "green line" I was harpin' on during the initial breakout from SOL's lows, broke down a while ago. You can see that it actually served as resistance as we moved up off of the bounce around $80 in the attached image. Thus, the relevant pattern presently is a "cup and handle" shown in the other image provided here. For this pattern to complete, you would want to see a move above ~$120 as your add/buy trigger, although if you are underexposed, you could buy here around $100, as it is a psychological support level that should, more or less, be able to hold if this cup and handle plays out, and would indeed allow you to be buying at a basis that is closer to the support "bowl" of the cup, thus allowing for greater potential gains if the pattern completes. On a measured move basis, one would see the bottom of the cup around $80 and the top at $120, meaning that a move above $120 should allow for relatively clean upside to $160, as you take the range of the cup and add it to the breakout level for your measured move target [$120+($120-$80)=$160].
I took a small leveraged trade on SOL early today and had to eat the loss. I've been a bit hesitant to lever up again, given that conventional equity markets are also under pressure, in particular semi-conductors, many of which have been leading the market and are now dipping below their 8 day EMA's. When leadership starts closing below its 8 day EMA, that puts me on the defensive. Note, I'm not liquidating crypto, I'm just choosing not to get overly aggressive, even as taking a trade on a SOL bounce here at $100 is very tempting. Another thing that has me a bit more defensive is NVDA reporting earnings after the close today. If they disappoint, that's likely to really pummel the leadership sectors (XLK and SMH, which do correlate a bit with crypto).
//
All that said, NVDA earnings are now out, and the initial reaction is positive. Conference call is on going, which can always be a bit of a wildcard, but with SOL right above $100 and having been looking for an entry to leverage today, I did buy in after the initial NVDA headline numbers showed a positive reaction. This will be a short term trade, and better yet, my stop has been nudged up to just under breakeven, right where I like it. 🚀 Initial take profit will be around $109.50 (which I recall being about +60% on this 10X leverage trade), but I may raise that alongside raising my stop to ensure a minimum profit, depending on how actively I manage the trade throughout the evening and what the price action looks like before I hit the sack.
So far, so good...

Edit: Raised my stop a few times, got taken out for +10%. I'll take it.
--------------------
-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
Edited by geokills (02/21/24 06:22 PM)
|
geokills
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙


Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,698
Loc: city of angels
Last seen: 22 hours, 6 minutes
|
Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills]
#28674309 - 02/24/24 02:42 PM (2 months, 22 days ago) |
|
|
Uniswap (UNI) made some noise with a governance proposal that would change the fee mechanism to generate an ROI for holders who stake/delegate their UNI tokens. But what really caught my eye were the comparative metrics to Solana's Orca DEX as shown in the following image.

Uniswap is more performative on fee generation, however the vastly lower supply and lower valuation metrics favor Orca on a relative basis. I'm not necessarily sure I want to go down the risk curve and prefer not to manage too many holdings, so I'm not in this trade at the moment. But I am a huge believer (and my biggest personal position today is) in the Solana network, and so it does make sense to consider ecosystem leadership like Orca and Jupiter (JUP I do have a small position in by way of a complimentary airdrop on account of my prior participation with the product).
--------------------
-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
|
geokills
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙


Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,698
Loc: city of angels
Last seen: 22 hours, 6 minutes
|
Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills]
#28676667 - 02/26/24 08:31 AM (2 months, 20 days ago) |
|
|
Bitcoin threatening to break out of its weeks long sideways flag just above $50K, up 1.3% so far today... MSTR (the data analytics company that is leveraging its cash & debt to amass a bitcoin treasury) is up 15% today!
Ethereum also moving handily to the top of its short term range above $3K.
Solana lagging a bit, hanging out just above $100... but it's had the biggest run of them all since November, so a little more rest makes sense.
--------------------
-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
|
geokills
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙


Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,698
Loc: city of angels
Last seen: 22 hours, 6 minutes
|
Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills]
#28676803 - 02/26/24 11:09 AM (2 months, 20 days ago) |
|
|
LOL, forget what I said about SOL, biggest gainer of the majors on the day now, just hit $110!
--------------------
-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
|
Mickalopagus
living in perverty



Registered: 07/06/04
Posts: 15,084
Last seen: 8 hours, 57 minutes
|
Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills]
#28676835 - 02/26/24 11:38 AM (2 months, 20 days ago) |
|
|
No kidding. Am happy to have bought even at ~$90
Still holding onto a few EOS and other Altcoins, that I am thinking about liquidating if the aggregate market continues this breakout. Am looking to consolidate mostly into BTC on its next cycle down, which who knows when that will be. Also looking for that 12-14 word keyphrase so I can access some KOIN. Feling like a crypto newb with my password management
-------------------- notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... " ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."
|
geokills
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙


Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,698
Loc: city of angels
Last seen: 22 hours, 6 minutes
|
Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Mickalopagus] 1
#28676855 - 02/26/24 11:58 AM (2 months, 20 days ago) |
|
|
All eyes are rightfully on bitcoin's established four year cycle. If you're looking for some balanced and thoughtful commentary surrounding bitcoin cycle analysis, including the idea of a potentially earlier peak in the current cycle that this commentator refers to as a "left translated" cycle, as well as the idea of a yet-to-be-determined longer term (perhaps 16-20 year) cycle in development, and even the suggestion of a "right translated" or "super cycle" that could blow off to mark the end of a longer term cycle that has been in play since bitcoin's inception, go ahead and spend 40 minutes with Bob Loukas:
--------------------
-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
|
Mickalopagus
living in perverty



Registered: 07/06/04
Posts: 15,084
Last seen: 8 hours, 57 minutes
|
Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills]
#28676861 - 02/26/24 12:05 PM (2 months, 20 days ago) |
|
|
Nice thanks for the share Geo. Got some commuting to do now as it turns out and needed some listening material
-------------------- notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... " ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."
|
geokills
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙


Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,698
Loc: city of angels
Last seen: 22 hours, 6 minutes
|
Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills]
#28677486 - 02/26/24 08:46 PM (2 months, 20 days ago) |
|
|
From: CoinDesk
Quote:
Despite Solana's strong performance in Q3 2023, Bybit data suggests that neither institutions nor retail users are interested in hodling the token, with SOL now constituting only a single-digit percentage of institutional portfolios as of January 31.
^ The type of news that makes me think SOL has a llooooooong way to go! 📈
--------------------
-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
|
Mickalopagus
living in perverty



Registered: 07/06/04
Posts: 15,084
Last seen: 8 hours, 57 minutes
|
Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills]
#28677892 - 02/27/24 08:33 AM (2 months, 19 days ago) |
|
|
I would be ecstatic if it does 
Man only the crypto sector can wow me upon first glance at market movement overnight. What a jump! ETH trading in the 3s I can’t remember the last time I saw that, 2018?
-------------------- notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... " ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."
|
|