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OnlinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #28617432 - 01/11/24 09:55 AM (17 days, 1 hour ago)

Market having a rough start this morning, lots of volatility (mostly to the downside) across the board.  Only stock specific trade that remains in play is MSFT.  Would like to get NVDA on a bounce at its 8 day EMA, which is presently just under $520 (need to see a bounce though!).  MSFT will stop out if it trades below yesterday's low around $375.  Not likely to do much here, especially since I had that home run double on NVDA right out the gates this week, my trading account is up a solid 15% for the year and we're less than two weeks in!


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OfflineManianFHS
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #28617837 - 01/11/24 05:02 PM (16 days, 18 hours ago)

Wow.. nicely done Geo!


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notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... "

ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ManianFH]
    #28618419 - 01/12/24 07:42 AM (16 days, 3 hours ago)

Added more March $380 calls on my MSFT stack.  It's one of very few stocks that has been consistently outperforming the past few days, and earnings aren't until January 23rd... thinking this one is set for a solid pre-earnings run.  I wouldn't go gangbusters here though, as it's already moved nicely off its 50 day.  I'm adding because I already have a profit cushion and can raise my stops to avoid a potential loss on the trade.

Edit: LOL, stopped out as we moved below the opening low.  Too bad, so sad.


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Edited by geokills (01/12/24 08:01 AM)


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OnlinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills] * 1
    #28618520 - 01/12/24 09:40 AM (16 days, 1 hour ago)

Seeing some pretty good selling pressure here at resistance (~4800 S&P - $480 SPY).  I don't think we're going to catastrophically dump, but there isn't a lot of enthusiasm on the buy side across the bulk of risk assets right now.  This would be a good time to cut out any unperforming positions and otherwise sit on your hands.  Not a time to be aggressive.  Monday's a holiday in the US, might as well start the weekend now.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #28618539 - 01/12/24 10:07 AM (16 days, 54 minutes ago)

^^ Sitting on my hands after a really solid run.


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OfflineManianFHS
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: pslyke]
    #28621963 - 01/15/24 10:06 AM (13 days, 55 minutes ago)

Riot - woah!! I didn’t see this until this morning, even though that slide happened on the 11th.


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notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... "

ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."


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OfflineManianFHS
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ManianFH] * 1
    #28623750 - 01/16/24 05:16 PM (11 days, 17 hours ago)

Quite a day overall. Mostly cash now but still holding on to quite significant gains from the past 2 months, which can be largely attributed to Geo's shared wisdom over the years to actively manage stops :thumbup:. Thank you Geo!

BA getting crushed over the MAXX news is somewhat inviting, but maybe will continue to wait until there is some continued upward movement rather than try and catch anything right here. I still wonder why both Riot/Mara experienced such significant declines by comparison to crypto, which seems to be churning sideways but still looking to setup for another move up. Must be missing some news because anything recent I see seems to be positive.

Until further positive signs am content to stay cash heavy.


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notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... "

ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."


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OnlinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ManianFH] * 1
    #28624466 - 01/17/24 11:11 AM (10 days, 23 hours ago)

Stops are requisite if you're trying to use individual stocks to juice your portfolio, stoked your using them!! :rockon:

As for the crypto miners, there are two rather simple reasons they are under pressure.  The miners are heavily debt-leveraged companies, banking on bitcoin upside.  Because the SEC had been blocking the launch of bitcoin ETF's, they have been used as a crypto proxy for investors... until now.  Bitcoin ETF's launched last week and money has quickly rotated out of the proxy plays (including MSTR - which interestingly is trading at quite a discount under its net asset value based on the number of bitcoins they hold), and into the pure play ETF's.  Those ETF's did over $10B of volume in their first three days trading!! That is crazy.  Considering that there were ~500 ETF's launched in total in 2023, which did a COMBINED $450 million in volume yesterday... the best performing non-BTC ETF did $45 million in a day... whereas the new bitcoin ETF's alone have done $10 BILLION over 3 days!  IBIT alone has done more volume in a day than the entire 2023 cohort of new ETF's combined.

Secondarily, the bitcoin halving, slated for April, will reduce the mining reward for each bitcoin block mined, by 50%.  Unless bitcoin really shoots the moon between now and shortly thereafter, a lot of miners may be forced into bankruptcy liquidation due to the high level of debt they have taken on to finance their capital intensive operation.

So, yeah, the miners aren't really something you should be in right now.  MSTR could be interesting as a leveraged bitcoin play, since you are essentially owning their stash of bitcoin at a sizable discount.  As of 12/27/23, MSTR held 189,150 BTC, worth north of $8B.  But their market capitalization based on the current stock price is ~$6.6B, equating to a 17.5% discount to net asset value, based solely on their bitcoin stash, let alone the fact that the company also operates a profitable business!  Thus, I think MSTR is a worthwhile consideration for a long term proxy position for bitcoin exposure in your equity account.  Or simply one of the many ETF's, which will track bitcoin without the discounted leverage (and thus be a bit easier to exit at reliable pricing).

Nice recovery bounces so far today on META, MSFT and NVDA to a lesser extend (but that's to be expected, since it is currently the strongest and thus simply hasn't pulled back as much as the prior two).  I'm still flat in my trading account.  Want to wait for the market to settle a bit, either by consolidating for a longer period of time, pulling back to a key moving average with a nice bounce, or breaking to new highs.  But in the middle space, I just don't want to sweat putting on trading positions for what is likely to be a somewhat directionless short-term period.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #28624569 - 01/17/24 12:54 PM (10 days, 22 hours ago)

Since I was talking bitcoin proxies...

Haven't looked at COIN in a while, but the hourly is tightening up something fierce.  Could go in gangbusters with a stop below $131.50 if you anticipate an immediate break higher.  Better to just start an initial though, I feel, with a partial stop at the aforementioned, and full position stop below $129.90.  Add on a move above $134.

I'm in via March $130 calls, buying at $133 underlying share price.  Expect $140-$145 to be a bit of a battleground, prior support and the down trending 8 day EMA.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #28625805 - 01/18/24 11:13 AM (9 days, 23 hours ago)

Stopped outta COIN.  Treasury yields have been climbing a bit, putting pressure on the market.  Still a sit on your hands kind a moment.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #28627003 - 01/19/24 10:26 AM (9 days, 35 minutes ago)

Eek, I was too quick to jettison my NVDA and MSFT calls.  Left another 50-80% on the table there.  Oops.  Although I absolutely loathe being a "sold out bull", I can't in good conscience chase it now.  Sure wish I'd held a piece and just ratcheted up stops on the daily.  Resolve to do better on the next one.


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OfflineHikeadellic
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #28628492 - 01/20/24 12:02 PM (7 days, 22 hours ago)

Any ideas on what the fed is going to do with interest rates this year? I've been hearing lots of thoughts on if they will raise or cut and its like there is no real answer.


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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Hikeadellic]
    #28628600 - 01/20/24 01:59 PM (7 days, 21 hours ago)

Forecasts are for the Fed to hold steady for a little while, but start coming down later this year.

https://www.forecasts.org/ffund.htm

This is one of the reasons the market has remained rather strong over the past couple of months, as expectations for a 6-12 month shift in policy came to fruition.


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OfflineManianFHS
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #28631151 - 01/22/24 02:50 PM (5 days, 20 hours ago)

Didn’t have much time to respond to your explanation about MARA/RIOT but that is a pretty clear picture you painted, thanks man! Gonna move my kiddos ROTH positions to something else. I kinda leave the account alone and just let time go to work since she’s got another 50 years or so before retirement :lol: but there’s probably a better place to allocate that portion of the funds.


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notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... "

ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."


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OnlinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: ManianFH]
    #28631169 - 01/22/24 03:07 PM (5 days, 19 hours ago)

Now that there are bonafide bitcoin ETF's, I'd probably just move the cash into one of those, or MSTR if you want to leverage up the strategy a bit (as MSTR is trading at a discount to their bitcoin holdings).


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Offlinegopher
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #28631228 - 01/22/24 04:13 PM (5 days, 18 hours ago)

What's everyone's opinion on index funds?

I went into to renew my GIC and asked the guy if I could put my money into an ETF instead

He said I'd have to do that on my own but he could put it into a index fund, so I said okay I'll put it into an index fund


I chose one that revolves around dividends and the dividends are out back into to buy more



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OnlinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: gopher]
    #28631499 - 01/22/24 08:56 PM (5 days, 14 hours ago)

Dividend funds are OK, but if you're just going for one fund, I would opt for as broad of exposure as you can get.  I'm not sure what your Canadian service is offering, but in the States, the Vanguard Total Stock Market fund is what I'd be looking at (also available as an ETF under ticker VTI).


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