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InvisibleDekozn
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills]
    #28592639 - 12/21/23 11:26 AM (1 month, 7 days ago)

This is old news but I just found out that black rock, a trillion dollar asset manager, secured a miserly $100,000 from seed investors for their btc etf. That's 2 maybe 3 bitcoin. I doubt other companies secured more than black rock for their etf's.

Meanwhile U.S. Appeals Court just mandated the forfeiture of ~69,370 Bitcoins & other cryptos from Silk Road case. Now I don't know how us government works ie do they sell onchain/dex or do they sell otc/auction to highest bidder?
But it doesn't take a math professor to realize that 2 maybe 3 btc is a whole lot less then 69,370 btc that's about to hit the market.
Black Rock and other firms are not going to gobble up all those bitcoins when $100000 is all they could secure from seed investors.

What are your takes on this? Am I wrong in my thinking that this spot etf thing is blown way out of proportion and that it's going to be a massive sell the news event and that 2024 might be a crab year at best for btc?


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Dekozn] * 1
    #28592654 - 12/21/23 11:45 AM (1 month, 7 days ago)

The short answer is, no one knows what's going to happen.  You'll just have to follow price and manage your risk and exposure accordingly.

Digging down, the US Marshalls have confiscated thousands of bitcoins before, and their preferred method to liquidate is through an auction mechanism that does not hit any centralized spot or DEX markets.  Of course, someone purchasing at auction may subsequently want to liquidate a portion of their purchase in whatever manner they choose, however historically (there have been a handful of large size bitcoin auctions already), these activities have not moved the market in any meaningful way.

With regard to the ETF's, it's not terribly surprising that seed investors for pending ETF's may be light, given that the ETF's are still awaiting approval, and big money managers are often subject to regulatory fund policies that prevent them from allocating until there is a clear path to liquidity on a regulated product.

I think a lot of folks are anticipating a "sell the news" bias for the ETF's.  It's how I would suggest the majority of hotly anticipated news events tend to play out, as active investors front-run the headline.  However, when the overwhelming majority of people expect one thing, the opposite has a tendency to occur.

The bottom line, we just have to wait and see, and take what the market gives us.

In other news...

SOL hit $95 this morning.  I have some limit orders on the Jupiter DEX set to liquidate around 15% of my Solana tokens between $95-$99.  I would sell more on a move above $100, with the intent to redeploy the capital on a potential retracement move back to ~$70.

I've recently (i.e. the last two days) been using Jupiter for limit orders, and apparently there are still "three more rounds" of airdrop snapshots to be taken for the impending Jupiter governance token launch.  Thus, you have the ability to acquire JUP by simply using their DEX platform for your Solana trades.  I just checked my primary wallet address at https://airdrop.jup.ag and apparently they're going to kick me down 3,700 tokens for their first round.  I didn't think I had any activity to qualify, but I guess some of my orders elsewhere on the network must have been routed through Jupiter to qualify me.

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InvisibleDekozn
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills]
    #28592686 - 12/21/23 12:26 PM (1 month, 7 days ago)

Thanks geo for clarifying how us government deals with their seized crypto and explaining how those etf presales work. I have no clue about all that stuff.
Still skimming some of the top and trying to get rid off my link bags.
Got a good spot in $tia from the bottom which has been a great ride.
Bought spot inj as it broke out from 20 and RNDR has also been good to me
All in all did a good picking my alts except for link (got in late and there was no real follow through)
Just don't want to round trip it all again.


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Dekozn] * 1
    #28592916 - 12/21/23 03:41 PM (1 month, 7 days ago)

I think LINK is probably OK to sit on.  I didn't get in early and don't have any presently.  But it does seem like a project that is being thoughtfully and actively developed, and likely to maintain some prominence for the foreseeable future.

Also, Bored Ape Yacht Club (BAYC) spotted in the wild on Washington Blvd in Pasadena, California, USA. :headbang:

   


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InvisibleDekozn
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills]
    #28593290 - 12/21/23 07:44 PM (1 month, 6 days ago)

Link is indeed a solid project but I have my doubts about the tokenomics + recently it looks like a lot of firms became forced sellers due to bankruptcy or whales that are selling. Opportunity costs is to high for my smallish portfolio.
I made a plan for myself to cut out the losers as soon as possible (losers average losers) and make sure that I'm not into too many projects for long term hold.A mistake I made last cycle which has cost me dearly.
My port is now btc biggest holdings tia, inj rndr and link. And I already feel like it's a little too much to decently track when things get volatile.


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Dekozn] * 1
    #28593859 - 12/22/23 09:29 AM (1 month, 6 days ago)

Yeah, I hear ya.  I'm really only concentrated meaningfully in BTC, SOL and ETH.  I have branched out a bit in the SOL ecosystem with like-kind products (i.e. liquid staking derivative tokens JitoSOL and bSOL) to harvest potential airdrops as noted a few posts up, but really it's just those big three that I hold, which are now the largest three networks in the sector, after SOL flipped XRP just yesterday or the day before.

I did unload a tranche of SOL @ $95 last night via a Jupiter DEX Limit Sell order.  Very smooth operation, as soon as the trade executed, the stablecoin funds were delivered directly to my private wallet without me having to do a thing!  I have another Jupiter DEX Limit Sell order @ $99.85 for a larger tranche, which would liquidate ~20% of my SOL stash, and would sell even more on a move to $110, with the intent to buy back on a retracement to that "green line" I posted above, which is presently around $70 but climbing each day.

ETH showing some real relative strength today.


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InvisibleDekozn
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills]
    #28594279 - 12/22/23 04:33 PM (1 month, 6 days ago)

Still no real follow through on eth although eth/btc was/is in a nice spot to make a bid. I'm still holding out on eth. Waiting/hoping for more downside on eth/btc and then rotate my btc into eth

Seems like I have to come back on my words. BlackRock is *planning* to make moves on Jan 3rd.  They're seeding the ETF with $10 million. That's 100x more than I previously stated.
https://twitter.com/JSeyff/status/1738328765879435406?t=4xadZjAsT8wPXY91CQUvLg&s=19


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Dekozn]
    #28596400 - 12/24/23 09:39 AM (1 month, 4 days ago)

Now THIS is going parabolic.  Limit orders I’ve set on Jupiter DEX are droppin’ like flies.  $95, done.  $111, done.  $120 on deck.  If $120 hits, I’ll have liquidated 28% of my aggregate SOL stash.  Would still look to reload on the “green line”, but with the way this thing is moving, maybe I’ll just have to be content with my remaining allocation when we ram straight into the moon. 😎

   


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InvisibleDekozn
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills]
    #28596499 - 12/24/23 11:17 AM (1 month, 4 days ago)

F u lol nah I m just kidding. I just can't believe I chose link over sol :stanhopefacepalm:
But on the other hand inj and tia went parabolic and still pushing the highs so I m happy with that.
Sold my link, bought eth but then sold it again for little profit and rolled it into inj, tia and rndr. All 3 went up more then eth so good job dekozn lol
But yeah sol is and will be the out preformer. I thought the ftx acquisition was gonna have a bigger impact on sol but this is the most hated rally and people still try to short it and keep getting blown out.
Good job on reading the market geo.
Btw Where is that green line? It doesn't show up.


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Dekozn] * 1
    #28596569 - 12/24/23 12:49 PM (1 month, 4 days ago)

The green line is a reference to a post I made a few days ago in this thread:

Quote:

geokills said:


Sometimes you really don't need to overthink things... Buy the green line until it stops working, then take some profits.

:tarantino:




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Offlineblackhawk
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Dekozn]
    #28596572 - 12/24/23 12:56 PM (1 month, 4 days ago)

I wonder if I should buy now for the long term, or if I should wait for a dip. Crypto has been pretty heated since october, on the upper bollinger band and RSIs above 70. Right when the dollar index peaked in october as well, and still dropping only 2% away from its recent lows in july. Reverting back to the means for solana would mean around 40-50$


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InvisibleDekozn
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills] * 1
    #28597023 - 12/24/23 08:00 PM (1 month, 3 days ago)

It's difficult to say but I would buy some just in case with a tight stop loss and move it up to break even as soon as there's another decent leg up. But I wouldn't put my whole stack in right now unless you know what you're doing and you know you're gonna be watching the charts like a hawk.
But keep in mind a lot of cex'es go down in times of high volatility and I expect nothing other when news hits that the btc etf is a go.

Bitcoin always had 20 to 30% corrections in a bull run that's when I would go all in. Don't be to eager meaning don't buy as soon as you see the dip. Wait for the retest or even the 2nd retest. Previous bull run dips occured mostly in 2 stages and 2nd stage was mostly the worst.

Now is also a good time to check which coins bounce the hardest, look for strength not the ones with the "most potential upside" that's bs in my experience. Look at solana for example it never gave anyone a decent pullback to get in yet if I had just bought when it was consolidating I would have been a happy camper.

My thoughts are when the etf is accepted btc and strong coins might go up. Then btc might chop for a while and then the correction will occur.
But I'm just some imbecile on the internet. It's your money and your responsibility.


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills]
    #28607043 - 01/02/24 12:37 PM (26 days, 5 hours ago)
Log in to view attachment

Nasty new law went into effect January 1st, requiring US citizens to report personal information for any crypto receipts of $10K+ or face a possible felony charge:




Also check out the attached Crypto Thesis from Ryan Selkis of Messari.io :yesnod:


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Offlineblackhawk
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills]
    #28607474 - 01/02/24 05:36 PM (26 days, 45 minutes ago)

Does it apply to 10k+ purchases off of centralized exchanges? What about transfers between my own personal wallets?


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: blackhawk]
    #28608242 - 01/03/24 10:01 AM (25 days, 8 hours ago)

The rule is rather ambiguous and little to no specific guidance has been provided for how to treat different transactions.  Obviously, swapping $10K on a decentralized exchange will not allow you any option to identify the origin of the funds.

However with regard to your questions, centralized exchanges that have implemented "Know Your Customer / Anti-Money Laundering" policies are probably not an issue, since you and the counterparty are already identified.  Same goes for personal wallets, as you are the counterparty, and thus known.

Reloaded some SOL at $90 and $80 on Kraken's exchange, where I had a couple of standing buy orders hanging out (and where price dropped as low as $71 during this morning's liquidation event!).  Interestingly, slippage was far less severe on-chain, where I had a buy order for $75 on Jupiter, and price barely got below $96!  Likewise, my leveraged yield loop positions on Solana's Kamino finance protocol were unaffected during the event. 


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Offlinegopher
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills]
    #28608521 - 01/03/24 02:39 PM (25 days, 3 hours ago)

Sol was a good buy for me so far, I got in right at the right time my 100 is worth like 160 now, I should have sold more paxg than I did to buy the sol

Edit 160 not 130


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Offlineblackhawk
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: gopher]
    #28608935 - 01/03/24 08:50 PM (24 days, 21 hours ago)

Here is a video with a with a CPA on the 10k crypto law in the first 8 minutes. Says it only applies to businesses.



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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills] * 1
    #28609443 - 01/04/24 12:30 PM (24 days, 5 hours ago)

Quote:

geokills said:
requiring US citizens to report personal information for any crypto receipts of $10K+ or face a possible felony charge:








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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: bio_alchemist]
    #28610758 - 01/05/24 04:31 PM (23 days, 1 hour ago)



Quote:

BlackRock has over $2 billion lined up in week one for their Bitcoin ETF, says VanEck's Matthew Sigel






The parent of Grayscale has completed paying off all short term loans to Genesis. This is important because there were questions around DGC having enough money to do so.









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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills]
    #28613795 - 01/08/24 08:09 AM (20 days, 10 hours ago)

SOL has been drifting back into a potential buy zone for longer term positioning.

   


BTC ETF fees are shaking out as a bit of a price war... could encourage some of the larger centralized exchanges to lower trading fees in efforts to stay competitive.

   


The contrarian view has steadily morphed into a Buy the News event for the bitcoin ETF's. Over the past few days we've seen some heavy sell pressure on BTC and Alts specifically because of short positioning on the idea that it’s going to be a sell the news event, because that’s what ended up happening when the BTC Futures launched. There are currently a lot of shorts positioned just above 45K and if they get clipped we’re likely to see an initial pop in price.  But of course, the baseline expectation should simply be for volatility in both directions.

   


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