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OfflineThe Ecstatic
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Re: The Official BRICS Discussion Thread [Re: SirTripAlot] * 2
    #28449975 - 08/28/23 02:30 PM (4 months, 28 days ago)

Quote:

SirTripAlot said:
If sanctions don't work, why is Russia trying to circumvent SWIFT?

It causes a clusterfuck for them, which is the point. Not every sanction works, but to make the blanket statement that they don't work at all, is not kosher.






Unless Russia’s response is to end its invasion of Ukraine then it isn’t working.

The explicit purpose of economic sanctions is to force the affected party to relent. Russia clearly is not, they’d rather build a parallel global systems of transactions than relent. So yeah.


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OfflineThe Ecstatic
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Re: The Official BRICS Discussion Thread [Re: Sulfurshelfsean] * 1
    #28448229 - 08/27/23 09:40 AM (4 months, 29 days ago)

What heat? Nobody is held responsible for war crimes. Sanctions are imposed in a way that ALWAYS benefits “the west.” That’s why they aren’t allowed in BRICS.

Cuba should join.




Unrelated: here’s a video of former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright saying the deaths of 500,000 children in a Iraq (in order to force Saddam to give up WMDs he didn’t have) is “worth it”

si=CAgz8et9JEqMinba


Nobody is held responsible for war crimes, and nobody is held responsible for the crimes perpetrated with the ostensible purpose of punishing war crimes.


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OfflineThe Ecstatic
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Re: The Official BRICS Discussion Thread [Re: SirTripAlot] * 1
    #28448863 - 08/27/23 05:11 PM (4 months, 29 days ago)

Whether it was 500,000 deaths or not isn’t the point, it’s that the US government decided 500,000 children deaths is worth imposing the sanctions (again, to ostensibly get Saddam to give up WMDs he didn’t have).

Imagine if Putin said this, people would lose their fucking minds.


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OfflineIce9
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Re: The Official BRICS Discussion Thread [Re: SirTripAlot] * 1
    #28449237 - 08/27/23 11:55 PM (4 months, 29 days ago)

BRICS meeting ended with no agreement on a euro style currency and contradictory reasons for why


Seems what I said about India and China was prescient
https://www.yahoo.com/news/brics-summit-ended-no-currency-045430858.html

Also
Quote:

As this dollar alternative was being discussed, data from SWIFT showed the greenback was used for a record 46% of foreign exchange payments via the communications system in July.




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The reasonable man adapts himself to the world; the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore, all progress depends on the unreasonable man. -- George Brenard Shaw


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OfflineThe Ecstatic
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Re: The Official BRICS Discussion Thread [Re: SirTripAlot] * 1
    #28449368 - 08/28/23 05:38 AM (4 months, 28 days ago)

Quote:

SirTripAlot said:
I agree to an extent, but not near your scale; first, it was also the UN not just the US that imposed the sanctions. A follow up offer for food and supplies tried to minimize the damage in which, Iraq declined. That is also on them....and Iraq doubled down by inflating mortality rates among children.

Trying to tiptoe and say no innocent life was lost is ridiculous and is not my point. What arbitrary line is "good"? Eight thousand deaths? Five hundred? There would be zero sanctions if it was entirely based on the loss of one human life. "What about the children?" would stop any war, and in a perfect world, yes, that is preferable but we humans are known for our proclivity for violence.

What makes these sanctions less palatable is the intelligence failure that makes this war less "acceptable". For example,the WW1 food blockade of Germany via Britian caused alot of hunger and sickness, but is more "justified".




I think you’re still missing the point, which is that sanctions don’t work, and cause unnecessary suffering for innocent people.

Arguing that a facet of BRICS is to prevent this type of behavior is a scheme to get away with war crimes (war crimes that historically are not prevented by sanctions in any way) is bullshit. Even if you want to take the most cynical view and say that Russia et al simply want an alternative trade system not accountable to Western standards on war crimes (a standard which does not exist by the way), you still have to explain how sanctions prevent war crimes (they don’t). They only cause more human suffering.


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OfflineThe Ecstatic
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Re: The Official BRICS Discussion Thread [Re: koods] * 1
    #28450101 - 08/28/23 03:54 PM (4 months, 28 days ago)

Quote:

SirTripAlot said:
So no.
The response is to make it more difficult for the state to operate. Supply the war machine, financial stability, balance of trade, etc.If sanctions stopped most wars, one bullet would not be fired.

Let's not forget that this is not a unilaterial US action you seem to pose. The EU itself has thrown its hat in the ring. There is a consensus among nations for this.

Does the  rouble losing 30% of its value make it easier or harder to conduct a war?




Right so we agree that sanctions don’t work.

Quote:

koods said:
Quote:

The Ecstatic said:
Quote:

SirTripAlot said:
If sanctions don't work, why is Russia trying to circumvent SWIFT?

It causes a clusterfuck for them, which is the point. Not every sanction works, but to make the blanket statement that they don't work at all, is not kosher.






Unless Russia’s response is to end its invasion of Ukraine then it isn’t working.

The explicit purpose of economic sanctions is to force the affected party to relent. Russia clearly is not, they’d rather build a parallel global systems of transactions than relent. So yeah.




Sanctions also make it harder for Russia to be successful. There’s no doubt that without sanctions and western support for Ukraine, Russia would have finished off Ukraine in a few months at most.




I would say western support for Ukraine amounts to 90+% of that. It’s not like the Russian government is just going to say “welp this is hurting the populace, I guess we should do what Washington says.”

DPRK, Iran, Cuba, some of the most heavily sanctioned states on the planet, and all it does is give their governments a bogeyman to blame the resulting instability on.


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OfflineThe Ecstatic
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Re: The Official BRICS Discussion Thread [Re: gww] * 1
    #28450206 - 08/28/23 05:09 PM (4 months, 28 days ago)

Quote:

gww said:
On the other hand, those same sanctions make it where the western support means something to some of the other countries that might not care about the stuff iran or north korea does.  Those countries may look at iran and say yes, not us if we have to decide who to snub.  The ninty percent support you mention might have less meaning with out them.




Well of course, that’s how it works in reality.

We punish the countries that won’t toe the line and other countries see that and react accordingly. It’s the same reason the mafia kills informants in a public place with 300 gunshot wounds.

Quote:

SirTripAlot said:
Nice dodge.

Again, sanctions are not a zero sum game.





Never said they were.


Quote:

Ice9 said:
Quote:

The Ecstatic said:
Quote:

SirTripAlot said:
If sanctions don't work, why is Russia trying to circumvent SWIFT?

It causes a clusterfuck for them, which is the point. Not every sanction works, but to make the blanket statement that they don't work at all, is not kosher.






Unless Russia’s response is to end its invasion of Ukraine then it isn’t working.

The explicit purpose of economic sanctions is to force the affected party to relent. Russia clearly is not, they’d rather build a parallel global systems of transactions than relent. So yeah.



Sanctions are a tool of pressure.  Alone, they won't make any country such as Russia, abandon a course of action.  They do inhibit said course of action, which despite your claims, is the intention.  Widespread sanctions shows the country against whom they are aimed, that the international community as whole condemns the behavior.  It may not be super effective, but abandoning a tool simply because it is not blunt enough is foolish.




The “international community” isn’t on board, and those that are, are typically only on board insofar as they don’t want us being punitive to them as well, as is the case with Iran. Even still, ostensible allies like India and UAE are doing business with Russia, in rubles.

Quote:

gww said:
My understanding is that during world war 2 germany started with high production of war materials.  We ramped up and then surpassed them.  One of the reasons that was accomplished was because many of germany's trade got curtailed and ours did not.  The only thing that that can be construed as is sanctions and it was the sanctions that held the out come.  Even with them, it did not end in one year or instantaneous.




Germany lost because they didn’t have the level of imperial subjects the allies did. Same goes for Japan.


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OfflineThe Ecstatic
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Re: The Official BRICS Discussion Thread [Re: The Ecstatic] * 1
    #28450207 - 08/28/23 05:11 PM (4 months, 28 days ago)

Don’t want to get this thread too derailed, so suffice to say that we all know (whether some want to admit it or not) that sanctions are almost always imposed because a country is doing something the West doesn’t like, it has zero basis in morality or international law or war crimes, seeing as how we partner with some of the most egregiously bloodthirsty actors on the planet.


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OfflineThe Ecstatic
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Re: The Official BRICS Discussion Thread [Re: SirTripAlot] * 1
    #28450266 - 08/28/23 05:51 PM (4 months, 28 days ago)

Whatever dude I’m not going to argue semantics with you over the stated reasons of imposing sanctions.

We all know why they do it, we all know they never achieve the stated goals.


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OfflineSirTripAlot
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Re: The Official BRICS Discussion Thread [Re: koods] * 1
    #28461440 - 09/07/23 11:07 AM (4 months, 18 days ago)

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dollar-set-longest-rally-years-142338083.html


(Bloomberg) -- The US dollar extended its gains, sending the currency toward its longest rally in years as the strength of the economy fuels speculation the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates elevated.

The expectation is drawing money into the US as investors seek higher rates than they can get in Europe and Asia, exerting upward pressure on the dollar.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which is heavily weighted against the euro and yen, edged up Thursday, extending a three-day advance that’s pushed it up nearly 1%. That’s put it on track for its eighth weekly gain, the longest since the index begins in January 2005. The ICE dollar index has seen a similar jump, leaving it poised for the longest advance in 9 years.

The rally reflects the fissures that are opening in the global economy, with reports signaling that the US economy is accelerating even as growth cools in Europe and China and markets anticipate rate cuts in the developing world.

The gap was underscored on Wednesday, when the ISM service-sector index for August rose to a six-month high, bolstered by a pickup in new orders and hiring. On Thursday, initial claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell to the lowest since February.

“Right now, the US economy is so resilient and the European data are so soft, it’s a recipe for dollar-strength overshoot,” Societe Generale strategist Kit Juckes said.

A widely-followed estimate produced by the Atlanta Fed shows the US economy is expanding 5.6% on an annualized basis this quarter. That’s leading economists to expect that central bank officials will double their growth projection for 2023 when they publish an updated outlook later this month and scale back estimates for interest-rate cuts next year.

As a result of the growth, markets are pricing in that interest rates in the US will remain above those in the euro-zone and many other major economies.

“We definitely have a combination of global growth weakening, particularly in Europe, followed by China — and then we’ve got what appears to be resilience in the US economy,” Matthew Hornbach, global head of macro strategy at Morgan Stanley, said on Bloomberg Television. “The rate differential story does benefit the US dollar.”


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Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration.
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OfflineThe Ecstatic
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Re: The Official BRICS Discussion Thread [Re: SirTripAlot] * 1
    #28461459 - 09/07/23 11:49 AM (4 months, 18 days ago)

Dollar isn’t going away anytime soon and anyone that thinks it is is fooling themselves.


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OfflineSirTripAlot
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Re: The Official BRICS Discussion Thread [Re: Brian Jones] * 1
    #28601908 - 12/29/23 07:31 AM (29 days, 17 hours ago)

I think the biggest war in history will commence if the US dollar is ever truely threatened as the world's reserve currency. Think of the home court advantage our businesses have when marketing goods overseas (our government,too), sanctions would mean nothing if the dollar was not in the top spot. It's kinda scary AF.


--------------------
“I must not fear.
Fear is the mind-killer.
Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration.
I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me.
And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path.
Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain.”


Edited by SirTripAlot (12/29/23 07:32 AM)


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OfflineThe Ecstatic
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The Official BRICS Discussion Thread
    #28447180 - 08/26/23 09:08 AM (4 months, 30 days ago)

Could’ve sworn we had one of these already but I guess not. Let this be the place to discuss the emerging economic and trade alliance between Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, and the implications therein.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/BRICS


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OfflineThe Ecstatic
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Re: The Official BRICS Discussion Thread [Re: The Ecstatic]
    #28447192 - 08/26/23 09:18 AM (4 months, 30 days ago)

I’ll go ahead and chime in with the latest news: the offering of decoder rings to six new nations at the BRICS summit in Johannesburg (Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, and Argentina).



https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/program/counting-the-cost/2023/8/26/brics-is-expanding-but-can-it-rebalance-the-world-order



With no official charter, it’s tough to say just what BRICS expects to achieve, or what its goals are. Informally, it is widely regarded as an alternative economic paradigm to the dominance of the U.S./EU/Japan. Brazil’s Lula de Silva has made multiple calls for a new global currency since his re-election, and that appears to be a major goal of the alliance.

With the group representing over half of global GDP, its power, although fledgling, may soon constitute a serious threat to the current global economic paradigm.

What are y’all’s thoughts? Growing power or paper tiger? Would nations like China be shooting themselves in the foot by diminishing the power of the dollar? Should the current order even be challenged, considering membership that includes unsavory, racist regimes like the gulf monarchies and Modi and the Hindutva in India? How does this growing alliance affect current crises like Ukraine?


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OfflineIce9
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Re: The Official BRICS Discussion Thread [Re: The Ecstatic]
    #28447241 - 08/26/23 10:23 AM (4 months, 30 days ago)

My thoughts on BRICS -- All hot air and much ado about nothing UNLESS -

India and China adopt a common currency similar to the Euro and replace their currencies with it.  This would end the dollars dominance of international trade and world reserve currency.

That won't ever happen though, as neither country wants to cede control over their own currencies, and it is a lack of trust that these two countries won't manipulate their currencies in ways harmful to others that prevent further adoption of them.


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Offlinekoods
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Re: The Official BRICS Discussion Thread [Re: Ice9]
    #28447247 - 08/26/23 10:28 AM (4 months, 30 days ago)

If there was going to be a currency to replace the dollar, it would have been the euro. It’s not gonna happen


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Re: The Official BRICS Discussion Thread [Re: The Ecstatic]
    #28447288 - 08/26/23 11:05 AM (4 months, 30 days ago)

Its an uphill fight, I see no tangible way forward as most of this is a pipedream...its all planning at this stage. Are these respective countries going to drop thier own individual currencies? Are they goung to adopt something like the Euro? I havent seen shit regarding this.

If not, this doesn't seem like a currency at all but a  back door payment processing scheme to avoid using the dollar. Ask Russia how  getting around SWIFT is working out.Are they going to have a credit rating agency? An institution similar to the FED? If not, they will surely fail as this is a major tenant of ANY notable central banking system. There has to be command and control, so to speak.

I did read that they have made a "New Development Bank" for BRICs...they started giving out pretty aggressive loans. But guess where they had to borrow the money? Wall Street, i.e. in dollars....so the institution that was designed to de dollar the world, is now heavily dependent on the dollar itself? Turns out 2/3 of everything BRICs is because of the dollar itself....because of this:

"..... the New Development Bank was told that interest on any new loans could quadruple, and the premium the bank charges its members to borrow has doubled, shrinking loan disbursements to a trickle..."

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/brics-bank-china-dollar-dominance-debt-ukraine-war-russia-dedollarization-2023-6


--------------------
“I must not fear.
Fear is the mind-killer.
Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration.
I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me.
And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path.
Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain.”


Edited by SirTripAlot (08/26/23 11:14 AM)


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Offlinekoods
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Re: The Official BRICS Discussion Thread [Re: SirTripAlot]
    #28447314 - 08/26/23 11:29 AM (4 months, 30 days ago)

Argentina has 100% inflation and they just let them in?


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Re: The Official BRICS Discussion Thread [Re: koods]
    #28447329 - 08/26/23 11:48 AM (4 months, 30 days ago)

I guess,  additionially Xi from the PRC, just skipped last week's BRICs meeting, abruptly. Looks like China is starting to feel their own economic heat, why bother with this payment processing scheme for the moment. Putin was even there, albeit virtually.


--------------------
“I must not fear.
Fear is the mind-killer.
Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration.
I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me.
And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path.
Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain.”


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OfflineThe Ecstatic
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Re: The Official BRICS Discussion Thread [Re: koods]
    #28447405 - 08/26/23 12:50 PM (4 months, 30 days ago)

Quote:

Ice9 said:
My thoughts on BRICS -- All hot air and much ado about nothing UNLESS -

India and China adopt a common currency similar to the Euro and replace their currencies with it.  This would end the dollars dominance of international trade and world reserve currency.

That won't ever happen though, as neither country wants to cede control over their own currencies, and it is a lack of trust that these two countries won't manipulate their currencies in ways harmful to others that prevent further adoption of them.




I’m not sure about won’t ever happen, but I agree that people dreaming about the yuan replacing the dollar as the global reserve currency aren’t being realistic at all, China has considerable control of their monetary system, they won’t give that up.

Quote:

koods said:
If there was going to be a currency to replace the dollar, it would have been the euro. It’s not gonna happen




I think it’s more about competing with the dollar, not unilaterally replacing it. It would need to be a gradual transition or else everyone loses.


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