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Ice9
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Re: Firing Squad Death Penalty [Re: ballsalsa]
#28259120 - 04/02/23 12:21 PM (9 months, 21 days ago) |
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You can see the data at
https://www.aihw.gov.au/suicide-self-harm-monitoring/data/deaths-by-suicide-in-australia/suicide-deaths-over-time
The absolute number has gone up (population growth) from about 2400 in 1995 and 1996 to about 3300 in 2017-2019 each.
Rates fell from about 13.2/100k in 1995 and 1996 to to 12ish for '21 and '22. T2004 through 2013 rate was around 10.5/100k with big increase after.
I would caution about drawing conclusions with regards to any means, explained in the Rand review is a good break down
Quote:
Interpreting changes in nonfirearm deaths based on a law intended to affect firearm deaths is difficult. The NFA focused on firearms specifically, but most researchers have evaluated the effects of the policy on both firearm and nonfirearm outcomes. Many researchers have argued that the causal effect of a policy intended to reduce firearm-related outcomes should be questioned if a similar trend is observed in nonfirearm outcomes, because the policy was not intended to influence that outcome. However, there may be reasons why a policy that was intended to reduce firearm-related suicide has an ancillary effect in reducing nonfirearm suicides. For example, there may be fewer imitative suicides (both firearm and nonfirearm) if there is a reduction in firearm suicides. But existing research suggests that clustering in Australia accounts for 5.6 percent of youth suicides and 2.3 percent of adult suicides (Robinson et al., 2016), suggesting that the spillover effect of the NFA on nonfirearm suicides due to contagion is likely to be relatively small.
the TL;DR for that is sussing out causal effects is pretty hard with out a control.
-------------------- The reasonable man adapts himself to the world; the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore, all progress depends on the unreasonable man. -- George Brenard Shaw
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ballsalsa
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Re: Firing Squad Death Penalty [Re: Ice9]
#28259127 - 04/02/23 12:32 PM (9 months, 21 days ago) |
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13.2 vs 12 is a pretty small delta and it seems like the data isn't really there to draw strong conclusions about why this small decrease occurred for the reasons you just pointed out. In my discussion with koods I used the U.S. stats to compare and contrast the homicide rate of decline post '96. Maybe there is similar data we could compare for suicides
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Ice9
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Re: Firing Squad Death Penalty [Re: ballsalsa]
#28259146 - 04/02/23 12:59 PM (9 months, 21 days ago) |
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A 10% reduction is small... ok. Further, there was a 30% reduction in the years I mentioned with a subsequent uptick for reasons that are not all obvious.
I hate to say this, but you don't seem to be discussing this honestly. You refuse to use gun based stats, despite my posting of why comparing non-gun based statistics do not make sense when discussing the effects of a law that specifically and only targets guns. Maybe you want to bring some relevant data to the table, and I will dismiss it as not significant, or of not a large enough value, or dismiss it out of hand because I think it is too narrow or too broad.
-------------------- The reasonable man adapts himself to the world; the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore, all progress depends on the unreasonable man. -- George Brenard Shaw
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ballsalsa
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Re: Firing Squad Death Penalty [Re: Ice9]
#28259202 - 04/02/23 01:50 PM (9 months, 21 days ago) |
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I understand that expressing absolute numbers as relatively impressive sounding statistics is a common trope in discussions about firearms. The one I usually hear is about how the homicide rate in the U.S. is 300-ish percent higher than the U.K.
"For reasons that are not all obvious"
Like, yeah, that's my point, lol
And yeah, it is worthwhile to consider whether or not gun legislation actually achieves the desired effect rather than simply reclassify one kind of death as another. We can't do that if we examine only the gun related deaths and declare victory based on arbitrarily granular data.
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Enlil
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Re: Firing Squad Death Penalty [Re: ballsalsa] 1
#28259211 - 04/02/23 01:56 PM (9 months, 21 days ago) |
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Are we presuming that a reduction of suicide is societally desirable?
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ballsalsa
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Re: Firing Squad Death Penalty [Re: Enlil] 1
#28259221 - 04/02/23 02:00 PM (9 months, 21 days ago) |
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That's the presumption, yes
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Kryptos
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Re: Firing Squad Death Penalty [Re: ballsalsa]
#28259314 - 04/02/23 03:21 PM (9 months, 21 days ago) |
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Quote:
ballsalsa said:
Quote:
Kryptos said:
Quote:
ballsalsa said: It can be, in a pinch, if it's a nice hefty bit of rope but ok, sure. That seems like a distinction without a difference in the suicide context and if we aren't counting suicides then we're back to your claim that a person in Mexico 5 years ago was less likely than U.S. citizen to be shot to death and my natural skepticism regarding it's accuracy.
You know, now that I've slept on it, I realize that I was wrong. Offensive rope use is possible, and actually severely restricted. The monkey's fist is illegal to tie or carry in many states because a length of rope with a monkey's fist tied at the end was a common self defense weapon carried by sailors on shore leave.
Of course, this doesn't relate to guns at all. Just because guns are a potentially dangerous weapon commonly used in crime, like a monkey's fist, they are completely different and we need more guns to prevent crime. Just like how the cops stopped the Uvalde shooting and the armed teachers stopped the Nashville shooting.
Look, it seems pretty obvious that fewer guns means less gun violence and I'm not disputing that, although that makes little difference to me unless the total homicide rate also decreased significantly as a result. I haven't seen evidence for that, much like your claim that Mexico was safer than the U.S. vis-a-vis gun violence 5 years ago
The Mexico having less gun violence death came from an odd website that I can't seem to find again. Claimed that the US was at 16.2/100k while Mexico was at 15.9/100k in 2018. Sounds a little low on both counts, TBH.
If you agree that fewer guns results in less gun violence, why is it so hard to believe that fewer guns causes less suicide and homicide? We see sustained drops in suicide when nets get hung over bridges, because as Ice9 has pointed out, suicide is impulsive.
From what I can tell, violence is also mostly impulsive. An argument gets out of hand, especially if alcohol or bravado is involved...and then people die, because guns make it very easy to kill people. Beating someone to death or stabbing someone to death is significantly harder than shooting someone. That's why places that have fewer guns generally have more assaults and fewer homicides--people are more likely to walk away from a disagreement outside of the US.
Reminds me of helmets in WWI--as soon as they became standard issue, head injuries skyrocketed. Now that shell fragment was causing a concussion instead of an impromptu lobotomy.
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ballsalsa
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Re: Firing Squad Death Penalty [Re: Kryptos]
#28259367 - 04/02/23 03:53 PM (9 months, 21 days ago) |
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If we accept that argument at face value, and I will for the sake of discussion, then the question becomes one of to what extent would removing guns from the equation actually lowers the suicide rates. It's easy to see how limited access to firearms lowers homicide rates because guns are much more effective at killing other people than ropes. The same isn't as clear with suicide. Rope is more ubiquitous, cheaper, etc. than firearms and comparable in effect when welded against oneself.
If we can suss out an answer there then the question becomes one of how much of a discrepancy we are willing to tolerate in order to retain firearms access. This, I think, is the discussion we ultimately need to have as a society.
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Ice9
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Re: Firing Squad Death Penalty [Re: ballsalsa]
#28259381 - 04/02/23 04:05 PM (9 months, 21 days ago) |
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You are operating from a false premise. That people seeking to commit suicide would find another way if a gun was not available. The majority of suicides that is simply not true.

https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/magazine/magazine_article/guns-suicide/
https://med.stanford.edu/news/all-news/2020/06/handgun-ownership-associated-with-much-higher-suicide-risk.html
This is not a new idea, nor is it poorly understood. Gun access increases suicide success rates.
-------------------- The reasonable man adapts himself to the world; the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore, all progress depends on the unreasonable man. -- George Brenard Shaw
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Enlil
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Re: Firing Squad Death Penalty [Re: Ice9] 1
#28259422 - 04/02/23 04:17 PM (9 months, 21 days ago) |
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So a small difference...
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Ice9
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Re: Firing Squad Death Penalty [Re: Enlil]
#28259458 - 04/02/23 04:29 PM (9 months, 21 days ago) |
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300% more is not small.
-------------------- The reasonable man adapts himself to the world; the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore, all progress depends on the unreasonable man. -- George Brenard Shaw
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Enlil
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Re: Firing Squad Death Penalty [Re: Ice9] 2
#28259478 - 04/02/23 04:47 PM (9 months, 21 days ago) |
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2000 a year is, and that represents 24 million gun owners. It's a small price to pay for freedom
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Ice9
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Re: Firing Squad Death Penalty [Re: Enlil] 1
#28259481 - 04/02/23 04:55 PM (9 months, 21 days ago) |
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I am specifically not arguing in favor or against gun control. I am merely pointing out the effects unfettered accessibility of guns has. I think one could pretty safely make the argument that would drop that number of excess suicide gun deaths quite a bit with simply owners locking up their guns. This would be effective against suicide attempts that occur by someone living in a gun owning household that is not the gun owner.
-------------------- The reasonable man adapts himself to the world; the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore, all progress depends on the unreasonable man. -- George Brenard Shaw
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ballsalsa
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Re: Firing Squad Death Penalty [Re: Enlil]
#28259483 - 04/02/23 04:56 PM (9 months, 21 days ago) |
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Just chiming in to say that this discussion is a lot more interesting to me than hashing out whether Trump or Biden is the more mentally defective President for the umpteenth time.
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Enlil
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Re: Firing Squad Death Penalty [Re: Ice9] 1
#28259487 - 04/02/23 04:58 PM (9 months, 21 days ago) |
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What is an "excess suicide?"
Shouldn't everyone who wants to commit suicide have access to proper tools?
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Kryptos
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Re: Firing Squad Death Penalty [Re: Enlil]
#28259586 - 04/02/23 06:16 PM (9 months, 21 days ago) |
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Sure, but maybe "proper tools" would involve some minor counseling or reflection, or at the very least not burden society with the cleanup.
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Bigbadwooof
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Re: Firing Squad Death Penalty [Re: Enlil]
#28259590 - 04/02/23 06:18 PM (9 months, 21 days ago) |
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Quote:
Enlil said: What is an "excess suicide?"
Shouldn't everyone who wants to commit suicide have access to proper tools?
As a humanitarian.. I say yes.
-------------------- "It is no measure of good health to be well adjusted to a profoundly sick society," - Jiddu Krishnamurti FARTS "There is no need for conspiracy where interests converge" - George Carlin Every one of you should see this video. "If you bombard the earth with photons for a while, it can emit a roadster" - Andrej Kerpathy
 
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Bigbadwooof
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Re: Firing Squad Death Penalty [Re: Kryptos]
#28259592 - 04/02/23 06:18 PM (9 months, 21 days ago) |
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Quote:
Kryptos said: Sure, but maybe "proper tools" would involve some minor counseling or reflection, or at the very least not burden society with the cleanup.
Damn... That's a pretty callous about-face.
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Enlil
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Re: Firing Squad Death Penalty [Re: Kryptos] 1
#28259636 - 04/02/23 06:49 PM (9 months, 21 days ago) |
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Quote:
Kryptos said: Sure, but maybe "proper tools" would involve some minor counseling or reflection, or at the very least not burden society with the cleanup.
Seems to me like society is always left with the cleanup.
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Kryptos
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Re: Firing Squad Death Penalty [Re: Enlil]
#28259668 - 04/02/23 07:12 PM (9 months, 21 days ago) |
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Still easier to clean up solids than liquids.
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