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Offlineanatomality
Nothern Counterpart
I'm a teapot


Registered: 05/31/20
Posts: 1,354
Loc: North East
Last seen: 2 days, 2 hours
Advice or Solutions?
    #28057541 - 11/18/22 06:03 AM (1 year, 2 months ago)

I foolishly invested heavily in infrastructure/utilities. I thought they would be a safe bet during hard economic times.

This would normally be true, but I didn't look into it enough and the company I choose lost 40% of it's value last week. It is currently yielding 10% dividend, and I am super tempted to reinvest.
I don't fully understand what has happened, should I just ignore all the news?

Algonquin Power


I have a big expense coming up, and I need money to pay for it.
Should I just take this loss? Take out more credit to pay for the expense to avoid eating the loss?
Refinance my house?
Reinvest in the losing company like some kind of pathetic gambler who thinks he can make it all back?

I want to be able to seize opportunities during this downturn.
I have a job, thank god for that.


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“The strength of a person's spirit would then be measured by how much 'truth' he could tolerate, or more precisely, to what extent he needs to have it diluted, disguised, sweetened, muted, falsified.”


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OnlineIce9
3X Ban Lotto Champion
I'm a teapot User Gallery


Registered: 03/20/14
Posts: 11,229
Loc: daterapeville,USA
Last seen: 1 minute, 29 seconds
Re: Advice or Solutions? [Re: anatomality]
    #28057553 - 11/18/22 06:10 AM (1 year, 2 months ago)

They got hammered on their 3rd quarter earnings filing.  I would think the market is probably pretty bearish on them right now.  I don't know much else about them.  Maybe the earnings report is now priced in :shrug:. Several places rate them as over valued still, others are saying now is a decent time to buy.


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The reasonable man adapts himself to the world; the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore, all progress depends on the unreasonable man. -- George Brenard Shaw


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OfflinegeokillsA
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙
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Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,417
Loc: city of angels Flag
Last seen: 12 minutes
Re: Advice or Solutions? [Re: anatomality] * 1
    #28058012 - 11/18/22 10:24 AM (1 year, 2 months ago)

Regarding AQN, I could see a potential reversion to $8-$8.50 on this in the near term as a somewhat decent probability after the big washout, but that's at best only 11% higher than where the stock is currently trading.  Although the adjusted net earnings are reported as positive, the actual losses the company is incurring were higher than expected.  This puts the advertised 10% dividend yield at risk, as there is a pretty good chance that the company cuts the dividend due to the margin pressures they are experiencing.  At this point, because you are so close to the post-earnings lows of $7.42, I would immediately implement a good-til-cancelled (GTC) sell stop on your entire position at $7.41.  If the stock can hold that level, you'll probably get a chance to unload a bit higher as indicated above, but if that level breaks, there will be more pain because other investors are now counting on that level to hold as well, and are likely to bail out if it doesn't.

Quick (and extremely important) lesson on risk management... There was an important high volume low on October 13th, at $9.93.  As the stock traded sideways in the weeks to follow, with the bollinger bands tightening up (i.e. "squeezing"), you should absolutely have implemented a hard sell stop at $9.92 (a penny below the prior low), which would have automatically liquidated your position if it were breached.  These levels are important, as you can see from the trading on the company's earnings release, which resulted in price breaking through that level at the open, reflexively bouncing within the first 15 minutes in attempts to regain $9.93, but rolling over again pretty much exactly when it hit that prior low from underneath, and the bleeding hasn't really stopped since.

This is NOT a friendly market.  Major averages such as the S&P500 and Dow Jones are sitting right at or under their 200 day moving averages (Nasdaq still considerably below).  They've all had a pretty decent move off the recent lows, so one would expect a pause here, and would not want to be buying in aggressively, as probability favors sideways to down/retracement moves in the near term.


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Offlineanatomality
Nothern Counterpart
I'm a teapot


Registered: 05/31/20
Posts: 1,354
Loc: North East
Last seen: 2 days, 2 hours
Re: Advice or Solutions? [Re: geokills]
    #28058084 - 11/18/22 11:21 AM (1 year, 2 months ago)

Thanks Geo, very well written response.

From what I'm gathering AQN has a lot of debt and rising interest rates are setting is a part from other utilities in the sense that the dividend is becoming unsustainable?

I was sloppy I should have put a stop loss. It's hard to choose what to do going forward.

'probability favors sideways to down/retracement moves in the near term'
Dang

Lots of us were rewarded for risky behavior during the pandemic boom, going to be a bunch of people like me holding the bags.


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“The strength of a person's spirit would then be measured by how much 'truth' he could tolerate, or more precisely, to what extent he needs to have it diluted, disguised, sweetened, muted, falsified.”


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InvisibleAhab McBathsalts
OTD Windmill Administrator
Other User Gallery Ultimate Champion: Blackjack


Folding@home Statistics
Registered: 11/25/02
Posts: 35,107
Loc: Wind Turbine, AB Flag
Re: Advice or Solutions? [Re: anatomality] * 1
    #28058653 - 11/18/22 05:12 PM (1 year, 2 months ago)

Looking through their wind power assets, they are generally the worst ones in our fleet. They have a lot of problems. I can't say whey they aren't executing, but the wind farm names in their financial reports are well known in the industry for having issues.

I know that Maverick Creek wind farm is a shit hole. I commissioned it.

Empire wind is a massive offshore farm and the cost of that probably ballooned because of interest rates.

Also Shady Oaks, and Deerfield are goddamn disasters. I don't know. I have a lot of exposure in my work to hearing about them, it seems like they aren't executing well on their wind power facilities.

Fuck they own St. Leon too?! Jesus Christ.

Quote:

Achieved COD on November 9, 2020. As a result of a blade manufacturing error 26 of 40 turbines were initially shut down. All impacted
turbines were back in service as of September 29, 2021. Long-term average resources (“LTAR”) for the twelve months ended December 31,
2021 have been adjusted to reflect turbines that were operational during these periods.




Ah, yes. I remember this.

Anyway not much insight into the financials, but there are a lot of shitty wind parks in their portfolio.


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"Nobody exists on purpose. Nobody belongs anywhere. Everybody's going to die."


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OfflineBrewPup
Myconaut - Fng
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Registered: 12/03/22
Posts: 11
Last seen: 4 months, 22 days
Re: Advice or Solutions? [Re: anatomality]
    #28322151 - 05/16/23 03:56 PM (8 months, 8 days ago)

OP- curious which strain is in your image- I recently grew an albino that looks quite similar but I'm not sure of the type (AA+ or AB)


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