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Offline4-HO-Gumbo
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Housing market crash
    #28020913 - 10/28/22 08:28 AM (1 year, 6 months ago)

YoY Existing home sales came in at -31% today, almost every piece of data recently has indicated at best a significant slowdown and potentially a worse crash than 2008

30 year rates hit 7%, Fed funds rate is set to continue to rise until inflation nears 2%, setting the scene for a deeper recession with significant job loss, weighing on* the spiking foreclosures that inject “artificial inventory” into the market, potentially driving prices lower.

What are y’all’s thought on this?
As a prospective first time buyer, Im fucking jumping out of my socks

Edit: grammar


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Edited by 4-HO-Gumbo (10/28/22 08:29 AM)

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InvisibleEnlilMDiscord
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Re: Housing market crash [Re: 4-HO-Gumbo]
    #28020916 - 10/28/22 08:30 AM (1 year, 6 months ago)

Yeah, this is gonna be a great time to buy pretty soon.  I've positioned myself for this.  I sold and am now renting until the market bottoms.


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OfflineKryptos
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Re: Housing market crash [Re: Enlil]
    #28020930 - 10/28/22 08:40 AM (1 year, 6 months ago)

I recently liquidated a number of assets in Russia, I'm trying to figure out a way to get the money here in time.

Fox news has run at least one segment calling millennials that are excited for the prospect of home prices going down as evil ghouls, ready to pick the bones of real Americans.

I am actually a little bit concerned that the reality will not match the hype, because the conditions are not quite the same. There is no significant proportion of subprime borrowers, and the construction industry hasn't really been building houses much since 2008. There is an artificial scarcity propping up prices.

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InvisibleEnlilMDiscord
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Re: Housing market crash [Re: Kryptos]
    #28020936 - 10/28/22 08:43 AM (1 year, 6 months ago)

In my neighborhood, I'd estimate that 3% of the houses are either being demolished and rebuilt or undergoing a major renovation.  By the time they're done, they're gonna be hard to sell.  The house across the street was purchased in March and renovated.  It has already had its listing price reduced by $185k and has not sold in the three months since listing.

It's definitely bleak for anyone who tried to take advantage of this boom and hasn't cashed out yet


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InvisibleTulipslave
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Registered: 07/25/17
Posts: 11,968
Re: Housing market crash [Re: Kryptos]
    #28020960 - 10/28/22 09:06 AM (1 year, 6 months ago)

Quote:

Kryptos said:
I recently liquidated a number of assets in Russia, I'm trying to figure out a way to get the money here in time.

Fox news has run at least one segment calling millennials that are excited for the prospect of home prices going down as evil ghouls, ready to pick the bones of real Americans.

I am actually a little bit concerned that the reality will not match the hype, because the conditions are not quite the same. There is no significant proportion of subprime borrowers, and the construction industry hasn't really been building houses much since 2008. There is an artificial scarcity propping up prices.





The young and the poor aren't supposed to get ahead in this economy.  That's how the game is setup.  Ghoul is the least offensive thing they've called us.

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Offline4-HO-Gumbo
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Re: Housing market crash [Re: Kryptos]
    #28021012 - 10/28/22 09:51 AM (1 year, 6 months ago)

I guess buying at the top expecting to flip makes one a “real American”

Dumb asf, let’s prove it


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OfflineKryptos
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Re: Housing market crash [Re: 4-HO-Gumbo]
    #28021129 - 10/28/22 11:01 AM (1 year, 6 months ago)

When you sell homeownership as the "American Dream", get rid of any other reliable way to build equity/fund retirement, and tailor government policy so that home prices only go up (to make it appear that it is a reliable and foolproof way to fund retirement), then the reality that investments carry risk becomes...inconvenient.

It is much easier to find a scapegoat than to re-evaluate the reigning orthodoxy.

Also, millenials aren't "young" anymore. We're like, 30-45. We've just been declared the scapegoat with a bunch of "millenials are killing the [overpriced garbage] industry!!!" thinkpieces, and once you declare a scapegoat, it's hard to change course.

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Offline4-HO-Gumbo
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Re: Housing market crash [Re: Kryptos]
    #28021313 - 10/28/22 12:28 PM (1 year, 6 months ago)

Meh, real estate is the most common way to build wealth.
Stocks and stuff are available and accessible to literally everyone now.
It’s up to individuals to edify thief’s levels when everything is at your fingertips.

I don’t even want a house for an investment foremost, I got a fucking family now.
I’m just laughing at people that couldn’t see this coming


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Offlinechristopera
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Re: Housing market crash [Re: 4-HO-Gumbo]
    #28021348 - 10/28/22 12:48 PM (1 year, 6 months ago)

The vast majority do not have stock market investments though. They are for the rich. I say that as an upper middle class person with a decent stock portfolio. My less fortunate friends have absolutely nothing in the stock market. Many of them are well educated (that could mean in the trades or from university, I consider that the same) and just trying to survive and be happy. The markets aren't for middle class people, most can't afford the risks. Most can't even afford to participate.


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OfflineSirTripAlot
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Re: Housing market crash [Re: christopera]
    #28021376 - 10/28/22 01:04 PM (1 year, 6 months ago)

I refrained from the "cash out" offers...hey only take out $95,000 in equity at 6.75%. Nope, sitting on my 2.75% fixed. So many people are gonna be underwater.

Will have zero issues selling my home if need be because I made sure my loan is assumable....who ever buys my home gets to keep my rate.


Edit: wonder if the same CDOs got bundled again with a AAA credit rating and sold to everyone. Repeat the house crisis!


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“I must not fear.
Fear is the mind-killer.
Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration.
I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me.
And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path.
Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain.”

Edited by SirTripAlot (10/28/22 01:14 PM)

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OfflineCHeifM4sterDiezL
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Re: Housing market crash [Re: SirTripAlot]
    #28021454 - 10/28/22 01:41 PM (1 year, 6 months ago)

The underlying market is alot more stable than it was in 2008 but obviously everyone knows housing has been in a bubble for years now. But this is the nature of these type of markets where there is a buying and selling of a finite supply. The market has to test the upper end or rip off to then move back down to test the lower side but anyone trying to buy a house will tell you it's due for some level of correction. But I seriously doubt we'll see some kind of collapse certainly not some kind of overnight gut punch nightmare like last time. I think we're seeing a much more natural cycle here.

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Offline4-HO-Gumbo
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Re: Housing market crash [Re: CHeifM4sterDiezL]
    #28021469 - 10/28/22 01:48 PM (1 year, 6 months ago)

I knew my OP drew a correlation between this and ‘08 but I didn’t mean to say that the underlying issues are the same.

Yeah it’s a conflation of several factors, overheated economy triggering overdue fed action, the Covid boom/bubble bursting, the looming recession and probably job losses resultant.

Much different, but that’s why some analysts say it could be WORSE than 08 in areas that saw major booms during Covid.

Like the Austin area where I live and work


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Offline4-HO-Gumbo
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Re: Housing market crash [Re: SirTripAlot]
    #28021470 - 10/28/22 01:50 PM (1 year, 6 months ago)

Hey, a cash out refi is free money if you are planning on holding out, especially with inflation so high…

At least that’s what people with money say


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OfflineReposadoXochipilli
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Re: Housing market crash [Re: 4-HO-Gumbo]
    #28021537 - 10/28/22 02:31 PM (1 year, 6 months ago)

I sold my house in California 2 years ago as I expected the market to correct with all the covid stuff playing out but they kept kicking the can down the road. 

I'll be curious to see how low the market will fall.  If I waited another year I would have cleared about double what I did but there isn't a crystal ball.  My new mortgage in the upper Midwest is half of what it was and I make about the same as I was. 

Still waiting for ecological literacy to kick in and see mass departures from less sustainable areas.  The southeast and southwest in USA have a rough time coming with the different issues.


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Edited by ReposadoXochipilli (10/28/22 02:32 PM)

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OfflineKryptos
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Re: Housing market crash [Re: ReposadoXochipilli] * 1
    #28021554 - 10/28/22 02:36 PM (1 year, 6 months ago)

There is significant political pressure to keep people housed in disaster-prone areas, so I would actually expect places like Florida to hold out the longest, while gobbling up taxpayer money to fund their state insurance program that they had to put in place when regular insurance companies stopped insuring housing there a few years back.

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OfflineReposadoXochipilli
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Re: Housing market crash [Re: Kryptos] * 2
    #28021586 - 10/28/22 02:48 PM (1 year, 6 months ago)

They keep building in the desert like they have all the water in the world.  Most the west in the USA is screwed with water sources.  It's full on head buried in the sand.  Salt Lake city and Phoenix are some of the fastest growing cities.  It's insanity.

Until there is a large wet bulb event in the south and power grid failure in the south west due to the dams failing people will just keep on like nothing is happening.


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OfflineKryptos
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Re: Housing market crash [Re: ReposadoXochipilli]
    #28021604 - 10/28/22 02:55 PM (1 year, 6 months ago)

Well, the underlying assumption is that the climate isn't changing, and 50 years ago there was plenty of water in the west.

NC, back in 2013, made it illegal to consider climate change when developing the outer banks (which are washing away at an alarming rate).

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Offline4-HO-Gumbo
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Re: Housing market crash [Re: Kryptos]
    #28021693 - 10/28/22 03:46 PM (1 year, 6 months ago)

Coastal erosion and climate change aren’t the same issue.
Coastal erosion does not rely on rising ocean levels, more like the interference of regular floods
But yeah, it’s a product of our “need” to live in these areas.

As long as it’s the sole liability of the people living there, fine, they eventually learn to build stronger houses high enough to be missed by storm surge.

I’m not for telling people where they can live within reason. I think being able to survive a once in 10 years storm is within reason.

Holly Beach in southwest Louisiana was a beach town comprised mostly of shacks and trailers.
Hurricane Rita completely wiped it out, and it was replaced by houses that survived storms of comparable strength


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InvisibleTulipslave
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Registered: 07/25/17
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Re: Housing market crash [Re: Kryptos]
    #28021765 - 10/28/22 04:40 PM (1 year, 6 months ago)

Quote:

Kryptos said:
Well, the underlying assumption is that the climate isn't changing, and 50 years ago there was plenty of water in the west.

NC, back in 2013, made it illegal to consider climate change when developing the outer banks (which are washing away at an alarming rate).






And as water is pulled harder and from ever-deeper sources, groundwater recharge rates diminish, with pre-existing aquifers/wells drying up to the point of being unable to recharge, or in other words, dead.

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Offline4-HO-Gumbo
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Re: Housing market crash [Re: ReposadoXochipilli]
    #28022014 - 10/28/22 07:58 PM (1 year, 6 months ago)

Quote:

ReposadoXochipilli said:
They keep building in the desert like they have all the water in the world.  Most the west in the USA is screwed with water sources.  It's full on head buried in the sand.  Salt Lake city and Phoenix are some of the fastest growing cities.  It's insanity.

Until there is a large wet bulb event in the south and power grid failure in the south west due to the dams failing people will just keep on like nothing is happening.




Is hot humidity supposed to be something the south is afraid to see?
Sounds like an August evening


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