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Ahab McBathsalts
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Registered: 11/25/02
Posts: 35,107
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Euro-Dollar parity 1
#27851307 - 07/05/22 10:22 PM (1 year, 6 months ago) |
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Is it a buying opportunity for Euros?
Or the collapse of a doomed currency experiment?
The Euro was always a terrible idea in a post Bretton Woods world. The Euro region is going to have significant struggles in the near future with high energy prices going into winter. It will cut deeply into GDP. The increase in military spending and energy infrastructure in the coming years could be a huge tailwind if it can overcome the shorter term struggles.
I haven't been following how Italian or Greek bonds have been trading recently, but I would imagine like shit.
How are you thinking about the Euro area?
-------------------- "Nobody exists on purpose. Nobody belongs anywhere. Everybody's going to die."
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Ahab McBathsalts
OTD Windmill Administrator




Registered: 11/25/02
Posts: 35,107
Loc: Wind Turbine, AB
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Or is it more an issue of dollar strength going into a global slow down?
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Asante
Mage


Registered: 02/06/02
Posts: 86,795
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The euro was an alternative to the dollar. Part of this waas backed by Russia accepting some eneregy trade with europe in euros.
Now the EU is being a little bitch to Russia, so Russia is dropping some favors and indeed the Euro has dropped to $1.02 today.
I'm no finanbcial adviser but i'm parking money away from the euiro, in gold, and only hold euros for small change.
I expect we soon see the <$1 euro.
Lets not be pricks about it, old europe is in trouble, you being Canadian, I dont think you will 
this isnt an America Fuck Yea moment but a Europe, Fuck NO moment and it will be detrimental to the US too becaise one of their major trading partners and allies just took an arrow to the knee.
-------------------- Omnicyclion.org higher knowledge starts here
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Asante
Mage


Registered: 02/06/02
Posts: 86,795
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Re: Euro-Dollar parity [Re: Asante]
#27855927 - 07/09/22 11:01 AM (1 year, 6 months ago) |
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The dollar is strengthening because all the Fed blow jobs it gets and the conventional wiusdom to run to longterm treasury papers in times of trouble. meanwhile the euro goes down so its both.
Foreign nations buying us paper and uncapitalist cheating ny the fed prop up the dollar. Europe mismanages the euro into a dumpster fire.
The Euro has a semi and the dollar won't stay up unless constantly fluffed, this is the shittiest pr0n ever.
-------------------- Omnicyclion.org higher knowledge starts here
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tomnl
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Re: Euro-Dollar parity [Re: Asante] 1
#27857036 - 07/10/22 08:32 AM (1 year, 6 months ago) |
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I like this analogy of valuta market being like porn.
Jerome Powell eating a clubsandwich while sitting in a chair in a motel room. Pimping out his 'bitch' while its fucking the shit out of the euro.
-------------------- Been away so long I hardly knew the place Gee, it's good to be back home Leave it till tomorrow to unpack my case Honey disconnect the phone I'm back in the USSA You don't know how lucky you are, boy Back in the US Back in the US Back in the USSA
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Ahab McBathsalts
OTD Windmill Administrator




Registered: 11/25/02
Posts: 35,107
Loc: Wind Turbine, AB
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Re: Euro-Dollar parity [Re: Asante]
#27857092 - 07/10/22 09:46 AM (1 year, 6 months ago) |
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Maybe I just don't fully understand how the Euro-crisis of the 2010-2014 period wasn't really fully resolved and having a block of countries with similar bond rates and no control to let their currency float will work for the long term. It is clearly against the trend of the last 50 years towards free floating currencies.
Czech short term bond rates are above 7% because they still control their currency.
Poland 7% on 6 month bonds.
Romania 7%
Denmark -0.1%
Germany 0.0%
France -0.1%
You have 8% Euro zone inflation, looming energy shortages coming into the winter months and the ECB is keeping interest rates artificially low to devalue the currency. It works great for the exporter nations, but will make the cost of importing energy that much worse. It is a huge policy mistake because you must paint policy with such broad strokes. Some countries will have secure supplies of energy. Some clearly will not. I don't believe that France and Germany will have the same energy problems to the same degree this winter. And others like Denmark have low inflation rates in 2022 for whatever reason.
In the last Euro currency crisis, it was Germany who came to the rescue for all the bailouts and painful austerity measures. It may not be able to do so this time around as it's GDP gets cut by energy rationing.
Or maybe everything will get peacefully resolved by October, but I predict more of a slow rolling trainwreck for the Euro-zone as policy problems compound on each other.
-------------------- "Nobody exists on purpose. Nobody belongs anywhere. Everybody's going to die."
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Ahab McBathsalts
OTD Windmill Administrator




Registered: 11/25/02
Posts: 35,107
Loc: Wind Turbine, AB
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Countries like Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal have debt to gdp levels that exceed 2012 levels. What happens during the next (very quickly approaching) recession when GDP drops? Even if the ECB doesn't meaningfully raise rates, the Eurozone is facing it's economic crisis 2.0.
Or maybe Saudi sovern wealth will bail out some countries in exchange for territory?
-------------------- "Nobody exists on purpose. Nobody belongs anywhere. Everybody's going to die."
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Tulipslave
Homo sapiens sapiens, lol

Registered: 07/25/17
Posts: 11,109
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Re: Euro-Dollar parity [Re: Asante]
#27858287 - 07/11/22 07:10 AM (1 year, 6 months ago) |
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Quote:
Asante said: The euro was an alternative to the dollar. Part of this waas backed by Russia accepting some eneregy trade with europe in euros.
Now the EU is being a little bitch to Russia, so Russia is dropping some favors and indeed the Euro has dropped to $1.02 today.
I'm no finanbcial adviser but i'm parking money away from the euiro, in gold, and only hold euros for small change.
I expect we soon see the <$1 euro.
Lets not be pricks about it, old europe is in trouble, you being Canadian, I dont think you will 
this isnt an America Fuck Yea moment but a Europe, Fuck NO moment and it will be detrimental to the US too becaise one of their major trading partners and allies just took an arrow to the knee.
Americans, lol
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