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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Ahab McBathsalts]
    #27821194 - 06/15/22 08:48 PM (12 days, 18 hours ago)

Quote:

Ahab McBathsalts said:
Vix is pretty high to buy long dated options :shrug:




Yes, taking a directional position via options in this environment is swimming upstream.  Don't leverage yourself unless you know you are already a disciplined and experienced trader and your expectations are firmly in check.  Better option in this environment is to sell spreads to mitigate the high premiums and capture out of the money extrinsic value due to time decay.

I haven't placed a trade in months, and it's been quite a relief!  I still have meaningful exposure, which hasn't been treating me too kindly, but I accepted my long term allocations going into the Fed hike cycle, and I know better than to try to swim in this sea given ancillary obligations to family and my own self-sanity these days. :wink:


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··∙   long live the shroomery  ∙··
...π╥ ╥π...


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OfflineHikeadellic
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #27822461 - 06/16/22 02:26 PM (12 days, 58 minutes ago)

T shares are starting to look like a real nice long term DCA dividend hold


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OfflineBaby_Hitler
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Hikeadellic] * 1
    #27828376 - 06/20/22 10:25 AM (8 days, 4 hours ago)

I'm seeing commercials on tv now selling gold.

I generally view this as an indicator that it is time to sell gold.


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(•_•)
<) )~  ANTIFA
/ \
\(•_•)
( (>    SUPER
/ \
(•_•)
<) )>    SOLDIERS
  / \


LET'S GO, DARWIN!


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OfflineGorlax
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Baby_Hitler]
    #27829299 - 06/20/22 11:02 PM (7 days, 16 hours ago)

Na they just tend to pop up with the recession news cycle. They cater to the fear and wreak in tons of profits selling gold/silver at a premium. Example if you buy an ounce of silver you are probably going to pay closer to 30-32$ instead of the actual spot price of 21.90$ Shouldn't be buying precious metals for short term anyways. Precious metals are what everyone claimed Bitcoin to be.


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InvisibleFiery
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Gorlax]
    #27829324 - 06/20/22 11:15 PM (7 days, 16 hours ago)

I bought a gram of gold today at $61... just a couple bucks over spot... and also an ounce of silver at $10 over spot.... yeah... I mean it's just a matter of time until the silver manipulation ends.. and I totally don't agree with Asante on his view of the silver metal


Also, getting a gram of gold at basically spot price was a score... AND it was a Canadian maple leaf gram too. beautiful coin.


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OfflineGorlax
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Fiery]
    #27829338 - 06/20/22 11:22 PM (7 days, 16 hours ago)

That's awesome! Nice score!! The best investing strategy is to own forever. Generational gold/silver. If you believe in economics and we "know" that the precious metals markets are highly manipulated. Wouldn't that factor into the price? I'm not sure if I'm explaining this well but in stocks investors expect to be compensated by volatility. I believe the same is true for manipulation. At some point we expect to be compensated "HUGE" by silver manipulation or why else would we trade something we know is manipulated? It's just a matter of time before we see it in silver. The stars have aligned.


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InvisibleFiery
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Gorlax]
    #27829357 - 06/20/22 11:31 PM (7 days, 15 hours ago)

Quote:

Gorlax said:
That's awesome! Nice score!! The best investing strategy is to own forever. Generational gold/silver. If you believe in economics and we "know" that the precious metals markets are highly manipulated. Wouldn't that factor into the price? I'm not sure if I'm explaining this well but in stocks investors expect to be compensated by volatility. I believe the same is true for manipulation. At some point we expect to be compensated "HUGE" by silver manipulation or why else would we trade something we know is manipulated? It's just a matter of time before we see it in silver. The stars have aligned.





Thanks!


That is an interesting perspective though.... When I fist got into silver and gold though,  I didn't know it was manipulated ... I just knew it held value, and tended to hold value .


Then, when I first dicovered it was manipulated, I didn't want to beleive it, and then when I finally saw it as a fact, it made me want it just the same.


I agree on the stars aligning thing... and also all the people complaining about bullion dealers selling silver at $10 over spot will be looking back on these says saying " Damn! Only $30 an ounce? I should have bought more!"


I mean yes, diversify and such, but crypto is basically straight trash and stocks the same... there really is no value in them( stocks that is) I mean at least crypto serves a usful purpose as an exchange of money... but stocks? ... nah No thanks.. I mean I do have stocks and crypto too but as far as I'm concerned it's all just a huge gamble.


Silver and gold on the other hand.. they aren't going anywhere.


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OfflineGorlax
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Fiery] * 1
    #27829387 - 06/20/22 11:45 PM (7 days, 15 hours ago)

People have been comparing Bitcoin to the greater fool theory. Which basically says the only reason the price goes up is because there's a bigger fool who will pay more. While I see there's definitely some comparisons. They forget that Bitcoin requires energy and computational power. Which adds to its intrinsic value. 

Quote:

The greater fool theory argues that prices go up because people are able to sell overpriced securities to a "greater fool," whether or not they are overvalued. That is, of course, until there are no greater fools left.

Investing, according to the greater fool theory, means ignoring valuations, earnings reports, and all the other data. Ignoring the fundamentals is, of course, risky; and so people subscribing to the greater fool theory could be left holding the bag after a correction.




Precious metals are the real deal. If the price declines in either silver/gold, you are left with a valuable metal.



   
  • The greater fool theory states that you can make money from buying overvalued securities because there will usually be someone (i.e. a greater fool) who is willing to pay an even higher price.

  •     Eventually, as the market runs out of fools left, prices will sell-off.

  •     Due diligence is recommended as a strategy to avoid becoming a greater fool yourself.


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InvisibleFiery
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Gorlax] * 1
    #27829402 - 06/20/22 11:53 PM (7 days, 15 hours ago)

Quote:

Gorlax said:
People have been comparing Bitcoin to the greater fool theory. Which basically says the only reason the price goes up is because there's a bigger fool who will pay more. While I see there's definitely some comparisons. They forget that Bitcoin requires energy and computational power. Which adds to its intrinsic value. 

Quote:

The greater fool theory argues that prices go up because people are able to sell overpriced securities to a "greater fool," whether or not they are overvalued. That is, of course, until there are no greater fools left.

Investing, according to the greater fool theory, means ignoring valuations, earnings reports, and all the other data. Ignoring the fundamentals is, of course, risky; and so people subscribing to the greater fool theory could be left holding the bag after a correction.




Precious metals are the real deal. If the price declines in either silver/gold, you are left with a valuable metal.



   
  • The greater fool theory states that you can make money from buying overvalued securities because there will usually be someone (i.e. a greater fool) who is willing to pay an even higher price.

  •     Eventually, as the market runs out of fools left, prices will sell-off.

  •     Due diligence is recommended as a strategy to avoid becoming a greater fool yourself.







excellent post and very inspiring. THANK YOU!


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OfflinegeokillsA
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Fiery]
    #27829968 - 06/21/22 09:51 AM (7 days, 5 hours ago)

From one of the newer trade mentors, Scott @ StockMarketMentor this morning, I dig...

Quote:

Moving from a Goal Mindset to a Growth Mindset

Good morning Team! Some green on the screen this morning as the market works itself off of some extremely oversold levels. Rocky’s note is spot on in terms of what we want to see from a Bottom, but agile and active traders can play these swings, just make sure you have clear lines in the sand. Want to watch some of the Leaders for strength like $AMZN, $AAPL, $NVDA, $AMD, $GOOGL, $MSFT and the like. Just keep a close eye on those Moving Averages lurking overhead as resistance levels.

This is the time a lot of traders quit. This is the time when a lot of traders realize how hard trading consistently and profitably can be. There’s a moving target for blame underway and tensions can run hot. It’s my belief that out of chaos leaders appear and opportunity arrives. If you've been here for a while, you have a huge wealth of knowledge to draw from and there’s likely someone who needs to hear what you have to say. So during this brutal bear, I ask that you step up in a cheerful manner and help those around you. Take this as your opportunity to share what you know and grow together as a trading community.

John C. Maxwell has a great talk I heard over the weekend and he says how he was inspired to learn about Leadership based on someone he heard saying “it only takes 1 hour a day for 5 years to become an expert on a specific topic”. For many of you in the background who haven't posted in the forum I have a feeling you have a lot of great things to share. What you’ll find is by helping others, not from a place of ego but from a place of genuine care and understanding you will grow as a person and as a trader. You’ll move from a place of “How Long will it take?” into a world of “How far can I go?”. As you grow and help others your trading improves because you’re holding yourself accountable.

Engage with each other. Ask questions. Talk about your wins AND losses. Share ideas even if you’re not sure. And remember that there’s no right way or wrong way to make money in the market, there’s only what makes sense to you and your personality.

Let’s use this down time in the market as our chance to grow so when the good times come back, we’re stronger and closer than ever.




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InvisibleTheFakeSunRa
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: geokills]
    #27831847 - 06/22/22 04:32 PM (5 days, 22 hours ago)

Damn $TELL took a beating today

I’m not in it but I wonder if it might be a good swing trade or if it’s just part a trend of the energy sector finally peaking. Oil executives are meeting Biden tomorrow


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[quote]Asante said:
You constantly make posts thatr fling middle school insults at people you don't like mixed in with maladjusted psychopathic comments about wanting to beat up the other poster with a crowbar.

You know how shit you are, you just don't give a fuck for precisely that reason.

I disendorse you.[/quote]


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OfflineGorlax
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: TheFakeSunRa]
    #27832349 - 06/23/22 12:09 AM (5 days, 15 hours ago)

I picked up a lot more shares myself today. No news on SEC for anything relevant to the drop. LNG prices have declined ever since that plant in Texas blew up. Still a global shortage. Will go back up easily


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InvisibleFiery
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Gorlax]
    #27832359 - 06/23/22 12:17 AM (5 days, 15 hours ago)

I just read a report on them and how their main asset is a production plant not going online until 2026.... it seems like for the long term this might be a really good bet if they can stay in business that long to finish the plant... but right now the cost of construction is more than the profit they are making, thus the volatility. .... If you look at the chart it's up and down, up and down... I mean it's dropped to 50 cents or so a few times in recent history. So.. is $3 a buy? or wait. I mean even if it does go down to 50 cents... I can see it going back up above $3 ... so then you could just buy more to average cost downwards... and just hold long.


Thanks for the heads up on TELL! I didn't know about that as I haven't really been paying attention to stocks much since I got into crypto.


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OfflineGorlax
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Re: STOCKS - An Intro Tutorial & Ongoing Discussion [Re: Fiery] * 1
    #27832856 - 06/23/22 01:36 PM (5 days, 1 hour ago)

This depends on how you trade passive vs active. I actively trade each day so a take a lot of trades that are overall risky and volatile because I can exit on the drop of a hat if needed.

You are right about Tellurian not actually finishing the Driftwood LNG project till about 2026. This is essentially a growth energy stock right now. They have started construction on the project and have been getting contracts to supply LNG in the future to major players.

The price almost entirely follows the spot price of natural gas. This is my thesis behind this swing trade. The natural gas markets are still in an insane supply shortage. Nothings changed. When the spot price starts to rebound again...$TELL will follow it back up.



The 52 week low was $2.23 - Current stock price $2.83

My price target $4.50-5.00

risk vs reward

downside - (-21%)
upside - (+59% to +76%)

Obviously the price of the stock can drop below the 52 week low but statistically not likely. Trading is all about statistics and putting your money to work. You can look at the sector and this isn't isolated to just them $NEXT $SWN all are down as well.



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