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OfflineGorlax
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Silver - the most concentrated short of any commodity
    #27771371 - 05/10/22 03:50 PM (1 year, 8 months ago)

These articles are pretty mind blowing. How the initial trigger for Bear Sterns collapse was a margin call on 2.5B of COMEX short positions on silver the same day they collapsed.
Quote:


What happened to Bear Stearns was exactly what I had warned the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) about continuously for the twenty years before the event. Aside from the manipulative impact that a concentrated market corner would have on price, the biggest risk was what would happen if the largest short ran into trouble. The facts in the case of Bear Stearns indicate that the worst did occur. The biggest short did go under. During the relevant time period, I was in private email contact with CFTC Commissioner Bart Chilton who indicated that the Commission was considering silver matters closely and that there would be a finding published soon. The subsequent CFTC finding was released on May 13, 2008 and completely denied anything was wrong on the short side in COMEX silver due to large traders.

Here’s the problem – the report lied. It conveniently ignored the failure of the largest COMEX gold and silver short seller, by only considering events through Dec 31, 2007 and not through the March 17, 2008 date of Bear Stearns’ failure, a clear lie of omission. How could the CFTC issue a report on large traders on the short side of silver and overlook that the largest short trader of all went under because of that short position? It has taken me some time to see all this in the proper perspective. What I now see is deeply disturbing, but it answers many questions. Even though I petitioned the CFTC about the illegality of the concentrated short position in COMEX silver for decades, they disregarded those warnings. Then Bear Stearns went under for precisely the reasons I warned about. Subsequently, the CFTC kept it quiet and denied all allegations.

Any regulator worthy of the name should have known that a lopsided, large trader mismatch was dangerous on the short side. Having misjudged just how dangerous the situation was, the CFTC and the CME Group put in motion a scheme to save the shorts and punish gold and silver investors. By arranging, with the Federal Reserve Chairman and Treasury Secretary, to have JPMorgan take over Bear Stearns’ silver and gold short positions, the US Government embarked (or continued) on a journey of allowing price manipulation, in stark violation of commodity law.

Since Bear Stearns was a failure that threatened the financial system, it necessarily invited the involvement of the nation’s highest regulators, the Treasury Secretary and the chairman of the Federal Reserve, as the historical record indicates. Both had to be aware of the gold and silver margin problem at Bear Stearns. Additionally, since Bear Stearns was the leading clearing member of the exchange, you can be certain that the CME Group was more than aware. The CME was the one issuing the margin calls to Bear. Also, there is no way that JPMorgan wasn’t aware of Bear Stearns’ gold and silver predicament. Yet none of this was made public.

These facts indicate that everyone at the top had to be aware that excessive gold and silver shorting was at the center of the Bear Stearns fiasco. Since the Feds requested JPMorgan’s assistance, there can be no question that JPMorgan demanded (and received) permanent immunity from future gold and silver allegations. This explains how they have been able to establish market corners in gold and silver today that commodity law prohibits. Had not the U.S. Treasury Secretary, the Fed chairman, the CFTC, and the CME agreed to JPMorgan’s takeover of Bear Stearns’ gold and silver positions, the excessive market concentration and manipulation in these markets could not have continued.

The interference of the U.S. Government in the Bear Stearns affair explains what was previously inexplicable: why the CFTC couldn’t find anything after investigating a silver manipulation for five years, and why the CFTC and CME were deathly quiet in reaction to the giant price smashes in gold and silver, particularly the two 30% price smashes within days in silver in May and September of 2011.

What baffles me today is that no well-known journalist from outside the gold and silver world has yet picked up on what is an easy-to-document story of epic historical proportions. It’s the story of why Bear Stearns went under, and how the gold and silver price manipulation continued since the day JPMorgan took over Bear. I think the story has Pulitzer Prize written all over it.




https://mikesmoneytalks.ca/gold-and-silver-shorts-were-the-real-demise-for-bear-stearns/


Drexel opens massive COMEX silver short position ----> goes bankrupt transfers to--->AIG Trading---->short positions transferred to ---> Bear Sterns --> Bear Sterns collapses (sub prime crisis and margin called on gold/silver) --->JP Morgan buys out Bear Sterns and gains their short COMEX silver short positions


Doesn't look like a good track record!


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OfflineGorlax
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Re: Silver - the most concentrated short of any commodity [Re: Asante] * 1
    #27776280 - 05/13/22 11:35 PM (1 year, 8 months ago)

I'm watching Silver futures heavily the passed year. Right now Silver is around $21.13. It had a marginal break of the support and should have dropped to $17-18 an ounce but it hasn't. It's still holding but my point is the lowest support next is that level ~$17.50. Every time in the past 40 years in a strong price decline the commercial guys always wind up the NET BUYERS and the non-commercial land as the NET SELLERS. Meaning everyone is selling straight into the pockets of the commercial hedges. I found the concentrated long positions were around $12-18 an ounce. I doubt we see prices lower less than $15. They are selling silver like it's not in a shortage. Literally everything is in a shortage right now. Silver has the industrial edge and the precious metal backing. It's been used as coinage since the dawn of time. This is one of the greatest buying opportunities in a lifetime. These guys are so over short right now. This has been going on forever and JP Morgan apparently is the dealer behind the cards. They go short, use price spoofing to manipulate the price down. Then buy it up and go long. This aside there's no getting around supply and demand mixed with geopolitical instability. The dam will break on silver. I'm not saying 300$ but I'm saying this thing isn't priced right.


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OfflineGorlax
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Re: Silver - the most concentrated short of any commodity [Re: Asante]
    #27776900 - 05/14/22 12:42 PM (1 year, 8 months ago)

Exactly but supply and demand has always unraveled every manipulation in history. It's almost a positive that this is the game. The price declines simply mean BUY at the absolute BOTTOM. Which is 17-18$ imo but could be lower.

Quote:

in 1979, the price for silver (based on the London Fix) jumped from $6.08 per troy ounce ($0.195/g) on January 1, 1979, to a record high of $49.45 per troy ounce ($1.590/g) on January 18, 1980, an increase of 713%, with silver futures reaching an intraday COMEX all-time high of $50.35 per troy ounce and a reduction of the gold/silver ratio down to 1:17.0. On that day, gold also peaked at $850 per troy ounce.[1][2] In the last nine months of 1979, the brothers were estimated to be holding over 100 million troy ounces of silver and several large silver futures contracts.[3]

The brothers were estimated to hold one third of the entire world supply of silver not held by governments. The situation for other prospective purchasers of silver was so dire that on March 26, 1980, the jeweller Tiffany's took out a full page ad in The New York Times, condemning the Hunt Brothers and stating "We think it is unconscionable for anyone to hoard several billion, yes billion, dollars' worth of silver and thus drive the price up so high that others must pay artificially high prices for articles made of silver".[4]

On January 7, 1980, in response to the Hunts' accumulation, the exchange rules regarding leverage were changed; COMEX adopted "Silver Rule 7", which placed heavy restrictions on the purchase of commodities on margin. The Hunt brothers had borrowed heavily to finance their purchases, and, as the price began to fall again, dropping over 50% in just four days, they were unable to meet their obligations, causing panic in the markets.
Climax

The Hunt brothers had invested heavily in futures contracts through several brokers, including the brokerage firm Bache Halsey Stuart Shields, later Prudential-Bache Securities and Prudential Securities. When the price of silver dropped below their minimum margin requirement, they were issued a margin call for $100 million. The Hunts were unable to meet the margin call, and, with the brothers facing a potential $1.7 billion loss, the ensuing panic was felt in the financial markets in general, as well as commodities and futures. Many government officials feared that if the Hunts were unable to meet their debts, some large Wall Street brokerage firms and banks might collapse.[5]

To save the situation, a consortium of US banks provided a $1.1 billion line of credit to the brothers which allowed them to pay Bache which, in turn, survived the ordeal. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) later launched an investigation into the Hunt brothers, who had failed to disclose that they in fact held a 6.5% stake in Bache.[6]




https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silver_Thursday


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OfflineGorlax
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Re: Silver - the most concentrated short of any commodity [Re: Asante]
    #27778748 - 05/15/22 04:35 PM (1 year, 8 months ago)

If you don't think silver is a buy right now, what price could it possibly drop to in a supply chain constraint situation with China being a major buyer of silver and producing close to ZERO of it domestically. China has been in lock down for quite some time. I wouldn't be surprised to learn that China is behind the price spoofing. Anyways I like gold as well and I am hedged both ways. Hedging Oil investments with silver on the back would be a smart idea going into 2023.


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Re: Silver - the most concentrated short of any commodity [Re: Fiery]
    #27779484 - 05/15/22 10:13 PM (1 year, 8 months ago)

I don't recommend buying silver or investing in it to try to flip spot price. There's a million ways to invest in something through derivatives but for physical the idea is to own it forever. That's the point of it storing value better than a bank account because you can't easily turn it into cash on the spot. The value is almost locked in for you. I also like collectible coins and the silver is a plus. I have a pretty cool coin collection and I don't even bother to know the weight because I wouldn't sell it based on it's precious metal content but collector value.

Paper silver or silver ETF's are the reason why silver is highly manipulated because as said the real price never reflects reality. That also has a flip side however and it means that not being able to deliver on the paper side makes the physical side rocket. It's a scale that's been tipped one way for too long.


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Re: Silver - the most concentrated short of any commodity [Re: Fiery]
    #27779519 - 05/15/22 10:34 PM (1 year, 8 months ago)

The only explanation for physical silver to be going down would be the dynamics of the paper silver traded on the futures market (COMEX). The properties and utility behind silver hasn't changed since the dawn of time. Its a dual use metal being used for industrial and monetary. The price of silver dropping is a signal that large hedge funds are buying MORE now than ever. There's also been movements of silver from the COMEX facility over the last 1-2 years that's been astronomical in size. Only reason for that would be large scale industrial use as it's 1000 oz bars.


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Re: Silver - the most concentrated short of any commodity [Re: Fiery] * 1
    #27779631 - 05/15/22 11:58 PM (1 year, 8 months ago)

Quote:

SO right here you're talking about paper silver actually being used to move physical silver, correct?




Yeah the spot price of silver is mainly decided by the trading activty on the COMEX.

Quote:


And if so, which way would the physical silver be moving.  be moving? I'm assuming out.




The physical has been moving out. Someone believed to be hoarding it or large scale industrial use.

Quote:


Does Comex mean the actual possession of the physical metal right? meaning they have it somewhere? SO in otherwords for physical silver to go down, wouldn't paper silver have to be SELLING physical silver into comex?




Yeah so futures are contracts to buy the silver. Most people buy and sell the contracts and never take delivery of the item. In this case the commodity is silver. When you trade on the COMEX you are trading on paper but the contract has an expiration and by the date you need to either sell the contract or take delivery of the item. They have like 11 comex centers that store for you. Heres a link to that https://ibkr.info/article/3944

That is my basis behind the imbalance in the silver market as one center dictates the spot price. Easily manipulated if you had connections to these exchanges. We just saw it happen with Nickel and the London Metal Exchange.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/04/investing/london-metal-exchange-regulators/index.html


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Re: Silver - the most concentrated short of any commodity [Re: Asante]
    #27780482 - 05/16/22 03:42 PM (1 year, 8 months ago)

Yeah it's most likely the Chinese as they have no viable silver resources and consume slightly more than 1/3 of the world's silver. They could easily just be behind the funding in large scale silver purchases and easily obtain the physical after at lower prices. They hoarding all the Rare Earth Elements as well.

The paper to physical thing is true but not in the sense you would think. Paper trading has multiple ways you can I guess "bet" on the price. While with physical you just buy the item. Ha idk if its even comparable honestly. Think of it has online gambling with bullshit casino arcade games compared to actually being in las vegas at a blackjack table. Ones on a server vs ones physically in front of you.


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Re: Silver - the most concentrated short of any commodity [Re: Asante] * 1
    #27781802 - 05/17/22 03:56 PM (1 year, 8 months ago)

if you search silver on shroomery Asante you were calling it before the last boom.

05/03/2007 you posted silver would soar. 14$--->50$

2009-2011 it basically 5x in price


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Re: Silver - the most concentrated short of any commodity [Re: Asante]
    #27783544 - 05/18/22 08:50 PM (1 year, 8 months ago)

Yeah I learned about bitcoin on here and that's before anyone was talking about it. Only bought it for transactions tho.

The game plan is when Silver dips to new lows BUY! $17.50-18.00 are Strong BUY zones imo
I'll stay posted on here as I follow the markets daily.


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Re: Silver - the most concentrated short of any commodity [Re: Fiery] * 1
    #27783563 - 05/18/22 09:08 PM (1 year, 8 months ago)

Junk silver is legit. I believe it's the best bang for the buck. If we don't see the end of manipulation we will see Silver rise. It has a lot to do with chart fundamentals and the supply/demand aspect. They have shortages of Aluminum, Palladium, and more. I also heard today that Peru is having a kind of miner revolt. We may start to see some supply issues on paper now!


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Re: Silver - the most concentrated short of any commodity [Re: Asante]
    #27786075 - 05/20/22 06:19 PM (1 year, 8 months ago)

I'm looking at some property now and I can almost guarantee it has some stuff to mine on it. I might try to do a little pan action myself. Does anyone just like the way silver and gold look in person. I have an affection for it like a moth to light haha


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Re: Silver - the most concentrated short of any commodity [Re: Fiery]
    #27787120 - 05/21/22 04:22 PM (1 year, 8 months ago)

Here we go long positions in silver are opening up!! +
21.7%

https://pasteboard.co/vtJnak1WsmXu.png



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Re: Silver - the most concentrated short of any commodity [Re: Gorlax]
    #27808566 - 06/06/22 04:13 PM (1 year, 7 months ago)

It takes 2.6 million ounces of silver per gigawatt of solar power and Biden just announced he is to use executive action to spur solar projects. Silver starting to react to this news!


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Re: Silver - the most concentrated short of any commodity [Re: Forrester]
    #27810333 - 06/07/22 11:22 PM (1 year, 7 months ago)

Quote:

Biden allowing solar panel imports while also moving to boost domestic production. On Monday the administration announced a compromise: the investigation will continue, but solar panels will be allowed to be imported from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam for two years without fear of steep retroactive tariffs — granting the solar industry a measure of certainty as they await the Commerce Department's decision.

Speaking to reporters on background, a White House official defended the move. The Tariff Act, the official said, authorizes the Commerce secretary and president to take emergency actions. "And here he [Biden] is using that authority to ensure the reliable supply of solar components from southeast Asian countries. ... that play a key role in the reliable supply of solar.




This is most likely why those Silver positions were opening up on the end of week 5/17/22 and going long. Silver did a complete U turn and made a new support level at $21.00.

Solar cells, also called photovoltaic cells, convert sunlight directly into electricity. Photovoltaics (often shortened as PV) gets its name from the process of converting light (photons) to electricity (voltage), which is called the photovoltaic effect. Silver’s use in photovoltaics Photovoltaic (PV) power is the leading current source of green electricity. It is of note that, despite COVID disruption, the PV market proved its resilience in 2020. Newly added solar capacity saw further growth, with the total estimated to have surpassed 130GW for the first time ever. Silver’s use in photovoltaics increased 13 percent to 113.7 Moz as global solar installations grew, while electronic and electrical demand overall rose by 9 percent to 330 Moz in 2021.

Buckle up fellas!!


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Re: Silver - the most concentrated short of any commodity [Re: Loaded Shaman]
    #27849044 - 07/04/22 12:06 PM (1 year, 6 months ago)

Here we are currently. Nothing has changed in the financial regime. Silver has only become more needed and scarce. The amount of solar that is being required now is astronomical. We are talking needing huge inventories of silver.

We are probably on the brink of a deflationary cycle coming up. You could def make an argument that cash would be the best thing to be in right now but we are currently in a high stagflation environment. I believe parking money into precious metals like #Silver that are bottomed is the move transitioning out of stagflation. It's arguable to be into cash during deflation to allow for liquidation purchases at massive discounts. I am a fan of both. I will be positioning my PM physical and cash accordingly. Things are never black/white with finance multiple interconnected networks and nodes feed into the system.

Here is the physical spot price of silver today. July 4th 2022. ~19.88



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Re: Silver - the most concentrated short of any commodity [Re: Asante]
    #27852191 - 07/06/22 02:56 PM (1 year, 6 months ago)

Quote:

Forrester said:
Any suggestions for a good place to order generic rounds or bars for as little over spot as possible?




https://www.patriotmetals.net/about used to accept bitcoin I bought some of the kilo stackers from them. Really nice.


Quote:


How, deflation?






This is how the markets cycle. You can see here.


We are currently in stagflation we are seeing GDP - slowing and CPI - rising. When the fed starts to rate hike. Which they will do several times we will start to begin to break the camels back. Technically we are already in a recession by the Atlanta FED they are predicting a negative GDP print..we already had 1. 2 means recession. People will begin to start liquidating assets like spare vacation homes, RVs, and the likes. This then significantly increase the supply. If you check the futures today we are already starting to see deflation across all commodities. Some of these have dropped 50% or more in the last month.



Check out cotton.



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Re: Silver - the most concentrated short of any commodity [Re: Fiery]
    #27855825 - 07/09/22 09:40 AM (1 year, 6 months ago)

You guys here about these things called goldbacks? Pretty cool https://www.govmint.com/1-50-utah-goldback-aurum-24kt-gold-foil-notes-5-piece-set


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Re: Silver - the most concentrated short of any commodity [Re: Fiery] * 1
    #27863070 - 07/14/22 09:36 PM (1 year, 6 months ago)

The average decline for Silver in the most recent bear markets was -37% from the top highs. We are about -33% from the recent high of $27.50. Current stock price hovering around $18.30. This would put us around $17.50 spot price but with room for error I think the support area around $15 an ounce is best aimed for to be conservative.


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Re: Silver - the most concentrated short of any commodity [Re: Fiery] * 1
    #27863156 - 07/14/22 11:11 PM (1 year, 6 months ago)

Nice! Hey I know people who lost over 20k in this crypto crash and to make it worse it was money he owed the IRS!

Right now I am currently waiting for the signal from the Federal Reserve. We know they have to rate hike but at what point does the entire system implode from so much pressure? It could be quite some time before it gets to where I'd like it to be (running estimate right now is Feb 2023). I found this apparently leaked from Bank of America showing their strategy for trading

Quote:

SPX 3600 nibble, at 3300 bite, at 3000 gorge; once recession/credit cause Fed stop, small caps/EM/cyclicals/consumer rallies

Summer risk-on requires Bitcoin 20k, EUR 1.00, BKX to hold 100, US IG CDX not to break 100, GT30 below 3.0% US$ reversal




Banks describe it as risk-on and risk-off. When things are risk-on you should take more risk. Inverse is true for risk-off. They are saying if the S&P500 hits 300 (3000) then to gorge meaning go all in. My analysis has it even lower and I'm expecting possibly 2600-2700 worst case SPY scenario.

I'm continuously buying silver as I like to collect it as well. I rarely trade in my silver unless absolute emergency. I'm totally fine paying $18-24$ for silver right now. I'm really aiming to make some serious cash in the silver mining stocks. They are so beaten down its insane!


Like I mentioned before. Investors expect to be compensated for volatility so then why not for manipulation? Once the paper trail explodes in their face we will see stratospherical spot prices.


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