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geokills
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Is the USA/EU too weak to confront Russia? What will China do? 3
#27675344 - 02/27/22 11:07 AM (2 years, 2 months ago) |
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This is an interesting theme that has been coming up more than I expected throughout the course of my discussions surrounding Russia's currently underway full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Russia clearly telegraphed its intent, willfully and otherwise, from which Europe and the US had months to prepare for this. A lot of stern condemnation and vague threats of sanctions against Russia were put into play, but no major physical force was used to deter their aggression, whether that could have been through implementing naval blockades in the black sea or providing real military ground and/or air support within the Ukrainian border.
For my part, I initially saw that Ukraine had dragged its feet on attempting to join NATO, and so it would stand to reason that direct military support would likely be a non-starter. Upon which I consider that perhaps one of the reasons Ukraine didn't make moves quick enough to get into NATO had a lot to do with them needing to sort out their own corruption and domestic Russian influence before being able to take that step. Zelensky's government clearly leans toward the Eu/NATO and away from Russia, and Putin seems to have decided that it's "now or never" to reassert his sphere of influence and prevent further European military assets building up against his borders.
Then there's the dynamic of Europe relying so heavily on Russian gas as an energy asset, with little secure viable alternative in the short-term... and yet, the German/Russia Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline has been put on hold, and today we see moves to block Russian banks from the SWIFT financial settlement system, which in turn will make it harder for European countries to purchase Russian gas. We also see tankers demanding 50%+ higher rates to port in Russia, and Russian gas forced to sell at a discount, even though transmission is more costly. So these economic sanctions do appear to have some teeth, yet it's hard to face the fact that for so many Ukrainians, it's a day late and a dollar short when your countrymen/women/children are dying at the hands of an invading force.
I suspect that the major reason there was no direct physical opposition to Russia's initial posturing, has to do with the nuclear security paradox. The threat of nuclear war can be a deterring factor with regard to a global incursion, but at the same time can paradoxically contribute to perpetuating and encouraging more conventional regional conflict, as nuclear powers are afraid to intervene against the aggression of another nuclear power, due to the utilitarian risk calculation that thousands to hundreds of thousands of lives lost (i.e. conventional warfare) is far preferable to millions to billions of lives lost (i.e. nuclear warfare). And because both Russian and the US have employed a "nuclear triad" (i.e. land, sea and air delivery), the option for a second retaliatory strike is in essence guaranteed, and as such, a nuclear conflict will have no winner. The only way to win, is not to play.
So does this make the US and other European nuclear powers weak in failing to actively defend/deter invasion of a sovereign European nation? With Russia clearly leaning upon the threat of nuclear retaliation, it really is hard to know what the best path forward toward mitigation of humanitarian disaster really is. Putin himself said (translated), during what is considered his public declaration of this war:
Quote:
I would now like to say something very important for those who may be tempted to interfere in these developments from the outside. No matter who tries to stand in our way or all the more so create threats for our country and our people, they must know that Russia will respond immediately, and the consequences will be such as you have never seen in your entire history.
Then today Putin also put his nuclear assets on their highest alert level. This really is a strange situation that appears to hold all the ingredients to escalate quickly. China has been very quiet, and their silence is somewhat telling, as they have aligned themself with Russia, and yet have not endorsed Russia's actions, including abstaining from related UN Security Council votes and publicly stating that they hope both sides can de-escalate sooner rather than later. It is particularly interesting because China has had eyes on wanting to consume Taiwan, as well as some suspect moves to suppress other domestic populations (Uyghurs, Tibetans, et al). Russia is clearly feeling the brunt of the world's disapproval, and I'm sure China is realizing that they are walking a tightrope with their own domestic aggressions and the concern of Chinese public opinion turning against them in a similar way to what we're seeing with Russia now. Not to mention, China being a major trade partner for Ukraine and indeed all of Europe.
Lot of moving parts here...
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Psilynut2
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Re: Is the USA/EU too weak to confront Russia? What will China do? [Re: geokills] 1
#27675403 - 02/27/22 11:47 AM (2 years, 2 months ago) |
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Quote:
Russia clearly telegraphed its intent, willfully and otherwise, from which Europe and the US had months to prepare for this.
Biden has been saying Russia is going to invade for like the last 6 months . Everyone made fun of him like he's some old fool blowing shit out of proportion . If I were Biden I would hold a press conference right now and tell everyone to suck my dick .
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geokills
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Re: Is the USA/EU too weak to confront Russia? What will China do? [Re: Psilynut2]
#27675434 - 02/27/22 12:12 PM (2 years, 2 months ago) |
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What's the point of that? We all know politicians are quite capable at running their mouth... I don't think Biden attempting to take a victory lap would do him (or anyone) any favors.
Furthermore, Biden advised against the operation that took down Osama Bin Laden when he was vice president with Obama, and the Afghanistan withdrawal (which admittedly wasn't entirely planned under his watch) was rather embarrassing, and so I'm sure Putin put these actions into his calculus when he decided to go into Ukraine, under the assumption that Biden could, militarily, be considered a weak President. I do feel that Biden has used information dissemination appropriately, as a force toward public rebuke against Russia's actions, but I also think he plays it very safe. Which may not be a bad thing, as global risk assessment is complex... I'm just curious if others think there should be a more aggressive stand against Russia?
And what if China decides to move more aggressively on top of all of this? Their economy and growth demographics are contracting, with the strengthening resolve of NATO and the "western collective", they may end up deciding that this is a do or die moment for them to make big moves such as taking Taiwan?
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Asante
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Re: Is the USA/EU too weak to confront Russia? What will China do? [Re: geokills] 1
#27675846 - 02/27/22 05:21 PM (2 years, 2 months ago) |
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Europe is weaksauce. The EU is not an union like the US are.
Meanwhile, the citizens prepare.

Resistance: Ukrainian citizens are filling up the molotov cocktails in preparation for the invasion.
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TheFakeSunRa
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Re: Is the USA/EU too weak to confront Russia? What will China do? [Re: geokills]
#27675976 - 02/27/22 06:58 PM (2 years, 2 months ago) |
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I think it’s a lot easier to swallow China taking back Taiwan than what Russia is doing.
I think of Taiwan as rightfully China’s but tbh I felt ambivalent about Ukraine until this happened and I’ve kinda become swept up in the injustice of it.
Maybe when China actually invades Taiwan I’ll feel more empathy for the Taiwanese.
Oddly the Olympics made feel more empathy for the Uighars.
Did Russia really use that FOAB thing or is that fake news?
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Asante
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Re: Is the USA/EU too weak to confront Russia? What will China do? [Re: TheFakeSunRa] 1
#27676045 - 02/27/22 07:34 PM (2 years, 2 months ago) |
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Quote:
TheFakeSunRa said:
Did Russia really use that FOAB thing or is that fake news?
Look at the video, ignore the subtitle.
You see that considerasble time elapses between the small explosion which disperses the fuel, and the large detonation of the fuel air mix.
The considerable time between them indicates that its a very large FAE, that the cloud must get very big before the detonation.
That means, larger than the TOS-1 missile.
Their effect is nearly instantaneous, as to seem like 1 explosion, such as seen here in thermobaric bombs of similar size:
As you see, they make US conventional bombs look like firecrackers.
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TheFakeSunRa
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Re: Is the USA/EU too weak to confront Russia? What will China do? [Re: Asante]
#27676572 - 02/28/22 06:26 AM (2 years, 2 months ago) |
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Has any legit news agency verified the use of that weapon?
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christopera
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Re: Is the USA/EU too weak to confront Russia? What will China do? [Re: TheFakeSunRa]
#27676621 - 02/28/22 07:41 AM (2 years, 2 months ago) |
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If the hit is on a munitions depot then of course the explosion is going to be massive.
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ashfiken
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Re: Is the USA/EU too weak to confront Russia? What will China do? [Re: christopera]
#27676642 - 02/28/22 08:13 AM (2 years, 2 months ago) |
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I think the us is largely a state willing to go-to war only for-profit. I don't think they can see this being a profitable endeavor. Beat up on middle easterners for 20 years and collect opium sure. But fight a world power on asian soil. I think Vietnam put us in our place of knowing when to foldem and when to holdem
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Edited by ashfiken (02/28/22 08:49 AM)
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Psilynut2
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Re: Is the USA/EU too weak to confront Russia? What will China do? [Re: ashfiken] 2
#27676668 - 02/28/22 08:41 AM (2 years, 2 months ago) |
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Lol, Russia invades their neighbor and and all people can do is think about of how much they hate the United States and bitch about irrelevant shit from 20 to 30 years ago .
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ashfiken
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Re: Is the USA/EU too weak to confront Russia? What will China do? [Re: Psilynut2] 1
#27676676 - 02/28/22 08:48 AM (2 years, 2 months ago) |
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Oh afghans are irrelevant? Lmao how is it irrelevant that we know we can't win a war in Asia? That's why (the single reason) we are the only ppl to ever use nukes bc we knew the war with the Japanese would be far too costly. So ya know fuck it nuke em. Hilarious how you think this action is any different from the mass of offensive actions we have taken around the globe for 50 years ad nauseam
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ballsalsa
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Re: Is the USA/EU too weak to confront Russia? What will China do? [Re: geokills] 2
#27676680 - 02/28/22 08:56 AM (2 years, 2 months ago) |
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From a geopolitical standpoint (ignoring the humanitarian implications) there is no good reason to stop Russian aggression in Ukraine at this time. The best Ukraine is going to get is material resources and maybe some clandestine insurgency training. This is because Putin's likely goal of simply ousting the civilian Gov't and replacing it with his picks is looking to be an untenable one without a lengthy occupation a la Iraq. In other words, Russia just bought itself a large albatross to wear around its neck until such time that they either declare victory and leave, thus wasting a bucket of resources for no lasting gain. If it happens in the short term, the expenditures will be less but the political fallout at home will be amplified. If it takes 20 years like it did for the U.S. the expenditures will be much increased but the public at large is paradoxically less likely to view it as an abject failure. A larger scale attempt to annex other former Soviet states would be a wet dream for any Gov't with interests opposed to Russia's for all the reasons I've just described.
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Kryptos
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Re: Is the USA/EU too weak to confront Russia? What will China do? [Re: Psilynut2]
#27676683 - 02/28/22 08:58 AM (2 years, 2 months ago) |
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I think China would prefer to buy Taiwan than to invade it.
China is getting a deal out of this: by allying with Russia, they get to buy Russian gas/exports at a steep discount due to sanctions. As they seem to be dealing in gold, this directly hurts the petrodollar.
There is a bit of an image problem with having allies go on military land grabs, though.
The US/China question is one of circumstances. In terms of absolute numbers, the US is ahead. I'm terms of relative numbers, China is significantly ahead of the US. The US is ahead because of inertia and a significant head start.
I also think this is less a question of US weakness and more a question of US choices. In terms of raw military strength, the US could almost certainly stand up to Russia, though maybe not win a decisive victory. I don't see the political will to do so, however. I see a surprisingly large chunk of support for helping Russia invade Ukraine.
Putin has been pushing the image of good traditional Christian values for some time, and this plays well with the evangelical base in the US.
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ballsalsa
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Re: Is the USA/EU too weak to confront Russia? What will China do? [Re: Kryptos]
#27676687 - 02/28/22 09:02 AM (2 years, 2 months ago) |
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There is no question that the U.S. military was primarily designed for conventional warfare against near-peer adversaries like Russia. Might be the only kind of war we could win decisively, honestly.
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Psilynut2
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Re: Is the USA/EU too weak to confront Russia? What will China do? [Re: ashfiken]
#27676692 - 02/28/22 09:08 AM (2 years, 2 months ago) |
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What we're watching right now is our weapons in the hands of amateurs fuck up the Russian military . We would do the same thing to the Russians that we did the the Iraq army the first time in a conventional fight .
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Kryptos
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Re: Is the USA/EU too weak to confront Russia? What will China do? [Re: ballsalsa]
#27676693 - 02/28/22 09:09 AM (2 years, 2 months ago) |
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Which is why a conventional war against Russia will never look like a conventional war against a near-peer adversary.
The US military is almost certainly one of the most ossified militaries in the world.
Russia has, in the last 15 years, fought three very successful wars. So successful we don't even think of them as wars, just little border skirmishes. Russia has also been beefing up their military pipeline, with a focus on patriotic education/indoctrination and an increase in state funded pre-military organizations like the Boy Scouts.
The US, on the other hand, is facing yet another recruit shortage.
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ballsalsa
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Re: Is the USA/EU too weak to confront Russia? What will China do? [Re: Kryptos]
#27676698 - 02/28/22 09:15 AM (2 years, 2 months ago) |
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Russia can't even impose total air superiority over Ukraine.  Given that reality, how long do you think tank columns would survive a conventional confrontation with the U.S. military? We suck at insurgencies but we are very adept at obliterating Russian equipment in pitched battles
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Kryptos
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Re: Is the USA/EU too weak to confront Russia? What will China do? [Re: ballsalsa]
#27676702 - 02/28/22 09:16 AM (2 years, 2 months ago) |
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I think the assumption that there will still be tank columns given a US military presence is flawed.
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ballsalsa
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Re: Is the USA/EU too weak to confront Russia? What will China do? [Re: Kryptos]
#27676706 - 02/28/22 09:20 AM (2 years, 2 months ago) |
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Then we aren't talking about conventional warfare anymore. The bottom line with armies is that they need constant resupply of equipment, ammunition, fuel, food, etc.
In an environment in which one party can impose air superiority over the operational theatre the ability of the other to move men or material in an efficient way is significantly reduced. In conventional warfare, this is the kiss of death.
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Psilynut2
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Re: Is the USA/EU too weak to confront Russia? What will China do? [Re: ballsalsa] 1
#27676707 - 02/28/22 09:21 AM (2 years, 2 months ago) |
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I keep seeing these videos of captured Russian soldiers saying they don't really know what they are doing there , and that they thought they were on a training mission and they were lied to . They look like malnourished drunks .
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