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OfflineStable Genius
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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: sudly]
    #28049419 - 11/13/22 05:58 PM (1 year, 2 months ago)

Quote:

sudly said:
I wanted you to quote a source so as not to have to do your work for you to make a point.





Looks like that didn’t happen.
Yet you were able to work it out = same end result :shrug:


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Invisiblemycosis
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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: Stable Genius]
    #28049449 - 11/13/22 06:11 PM (1 year, 2 months ago)

If the Russians keep being so risk adverse they're going to have to declare St Petersburg the capital of Crimea.
:facepalm:


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Invisiblesudly
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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: Stable Genius]
    #28049466 - 11/13/22 06:17 PM (1 year, 2 months ago)

Quote:

Stable Genius said:
82.7% of the population of Crimea voted. You can work the rest out but hey nice try.




With some Tatar leaders announcing a boycott of the referendum, there being little organised opposition, an overwhelming broadcasting campaign, promises of the greatest pensions, and armed men without insignia being present (who were eventually identified as Russian soldiers), the odds were stacked. 

Quote:

Many people in Crimea — a multiethnic region of about 2 million people — are not happy about the prospect of annexation, but only Tatar leaders have announced a formal boycott of the referendum. In the Crimean capital, Simferopol, there is little organized opposition to the Russian-backed referendum juggernaut — posters, banners, loudspeaker trucks blaring patriotic Russian songs, and one-sided TV coverage by Moscow-based and pro-Russian Crimean stations.

Several opposition rallies have been held in the capital, drawing enthusiastic crowds waving Ukrainian flags, but they have been mostly grass-roots events with no high-profile leaders. The growing presence of Russian Cossack troops, uniformed militiamen and local vigilante squads in the region has served as mute but powerful intimidation.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/crimeas-tatars-brace-for-russian-takeover/2014/03/12/8b8ce764-a9df-11e3-8a7b-c1c684e2671f_story.html?tid=a_inl_manual




Quote:

Residents here also tell of efforts to control any anti-Russia campaign prior to the voting, which was originally set for May 25, then quickly advanced to March 16 after masked gunmen without insignia, presumed to be Russian special forces, occupied the Crimean legislature.

All television broadcasts by Ukrainian channels were blocked, and only Russian or pro-Russian channels were allowed to broadcast, along with Tatars’ ATR. Posters with the slogan “Together with Russia,” were slapped on every available billboard – sometimes three or four within sight of each other.

Russia also pressed a campaign promising Crimeans, 600,000 of whom are retirees, that their pensions would more than double if the peninsula joined Russia.

“It was a very aggressive campaign, and it appealed to many older voters who don’t think critically,” said Svetlana Kocherga, a Ukrainian professor of philology at the Crimean State University at Yalta, on the Black Sea coast.

Although Ukrainian law requires that all advertising and rallies cease from the day before any vote, it continued at fever pitch through election day, she said.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2014/03/16/ccec2132-acd4-11e3-a06a-e3230a43d6cb_story.html




Quote:

Russia announced plans to invest 680 billion rubles (around $10 bln) in Crimea between now and 2020. That is on top of the billions of rubles it spends each month on pensions and payments to teachers, doctors and government employees.

Pensioners, state employees and people working in the tourist industry were expected to enjoy a significant financial uplift after annexation. Instead, the ruble has lost about half of its value against the dollar since 2014 due to lower oil prices and Western sanctions.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-crisis-crimea-idUSKCN10W0EM




You not quoting your sources to make your points is not helpful, and without me actually going through it to find a point, you would have none. Imo it's just lazy. You don't like referencing, I get that, but I would ask that you do.

Again though the end result is,

Quote:

It is interesting that the 123% number appears to be a Russian fabrication some media platforms ran with and didn't correct, this alone doesn't dismiss that Russian military involvement in the referendum is what stained its credibility, although imo it does raise eyebrows and show the importance of discretion.





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OfflineStable Genius
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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: sudly]
    #28049556 - 11/13/22 07:08 PM (1 year, 2 months ago)

Lazy? How about not well?
You may have noticed I haven’t been around much these past few weeks.
I pointed out your claim of a 123% vote was incorrect (which is probably something you should have looked at a bit harder) and nothing more than someone reporting the numbers wrong, I’m not sure what else you’d like me to do.


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Invisiblemycosis
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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: Stable Genius] * 1
    #28049564 - 11/13/22 07:17 PM (1 year, 2 months ago)

Hope you get to feeling better wild man!


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Invisiblesudly
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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: Stable Genius]
    #28049576 - 11/13/22 07:25 PM (1 year, 2 months ago)

Lazy and unwell then perhaps.

I appreciate the incentive with at least a link, but I also appreciate constructive criticism or feedback, especially when you are trying to make a point.

It's easy to throw around links, but if you have a point, and you've read it in an article, what makes it so hard to share?

Do you acknowledge this point?
Quote:

this alone doesn't dismiss that Russian military involvement in the referendum is what stained its credibility




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Offlinekoods
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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: mycosis]
    #28049594 - 11/13/22 07:39 PM (1 year, 2 months ago)

Quote:

mycosis said:
There's a video going around where a Wagner Group deserter gets a sledge hammer to the head after he was returned to them in a prisoner swap.

F'kn brutal! :jawdrop:




The guy who did it was bragging about it online


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OfflineStable Genius
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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: sudly]
    #28049663 - 11/13/22 08:22 PM (1 year, 2 months ago)

If you look back through the thread I mostly DO do my own take on things and provide links.

Do I acknowledge your point?
For sure I understand what you’re saying and if we were weighing this up as a black and white problem you’d be correct. Very few things are black and white though.

After what happened in Odessa we don’t know if the people of Crimea felt safer because of the troops providing security but I’d think they probably did, seeing as the majority were pro Russian

I really think the context of the situation needs to be weighed up as well. Crimea was part of Russia, the people did not vote to leave Russia and join Ukraine so why did the rest of Ukraine need to vote on a referendum that had nothing to do with them?

I’m GUESSING that if the U.N. was in charge of organising/monitoring the referendum it would have been stacked against Russia anyway with the whole of Ukraine involved, so does the idea of friendly, yes friendly troops matter?

Sure it makes for a nice piece of propaganda that the koods’ of the world can’t get past but in reality, imo, it didn’t sway things and for the same reason didn’t delegitimise the election.

Does it look bad? Yes, but that’s not reality.


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OfflineStable Genius
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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: mycosis] * 1
    #28049669 - 11/13/22 08:27 PM (1 year, 2 months ago)

Quote:

mycosis said:
Hope you get to feeling better wild man!




:crazybaby:

Thank you


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Invisiblesudly
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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: Stable Genius]
    #28049706 - 11/13/22 08:53 PM (1 year, 2 months ago)

Quote:

Stable Genius said:
If you look back through the thread I mostly DO do my own take on things and provide links.

Do I acknowledge your point?
For sure I understand what you’re saying and if we were weighing this up as a black and white problem you’d be correct. Very few things are black and white though.

After what happened in Odessa we don’t know if the people of Crimea felt safer because of the troops providing security but I’d think they probably did, seeing as the majority were pro Russian

I really think the context of the situation needs to be weighed up as well. Crimea was part of Russia, the people did not vote to leave Russia and join Ukraine so why did the rest of Ukraine need to vote on a referendum that had nothing to do with them?

I’m GUESSING that if the U.N. was in charge of organising/monitoring the referendum it would have been stacked against Russia anyway with the whole of Ukraine involved, so does the idea of friendly, yes friendly troops matter?

Sure it makes for a nice piece of propaganda that the koods’ of the world can’t get past but in reality, imo, it didn’t sway things and for the same reason didn’t delegitimise the election.

Does it look bad? Yes, but that’s not reality.




It's appreciated when you quote a source is all I'm saying. 

That Russian military involvement stained the credibility of Crimeas referendum is a nuanced view that takes context into perspective.

Pro Russian voters may have felt safe with Russian troops around true, but that's kind of the point then isn't it, because not everyone was pro Russian.

The context is the military invasion, and it has been weighed up as something that has stained the credibility of the Crimean referendum.

Crimea was a part of Ukraine, that is why it mattered to them.

If there was a national Ukranian vote, I think the probability that Crimea remained as a part of Ukraine was high.

If the UN annexed a part of Ukraine, stationed soldiers within, and began an over reaching campaign for secession with ill keepable promises, I think we would be having the same discussion about their military involvement staining the legitimacy and integrity of the referendum.

If you don't think governmental annexation and military infringements have an influence on referendums you can say it here.


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OfflineFalcon91Wolvrn03
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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: Ice9]
    #28049763 - 11/13/22 09:53 PM (1 year, 2 months ago)

Quote:

Ice9 said:
Crimean Tatars make up 12% of the population.  Hard to get to either 90 or 95%.  Unless you are claiming they voted to join Russia so they can be ethnically cleansed.  Just further instances of you bringing in numbers and failing



Actually, it's easy to get to 95%, but I guess you're not smart enough.

As sudly pointed out, some Tatars didn't vote.  And some Tatars wanted to join Russia over the poorest, most corrupt country in Europe.


--------------------
I am in a minority on the shroomery, as I frequently defend the opposing side when they have a point about something or when my side make believes something about them.  I also attack my side if I think they're wrong.  People here get very confused by that and think it means I prefer the other side.


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OfflineFalcon91Wolvrn03
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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: sudly]
    #28049766 - 11/13/22 09:57 PM (1 year, 2 months ago)

Quote:

sudly said:
It seems reasonable to me that within Crimea there could be a majority that vote to leave Ukraine, if no military interventions were present and a referendum was held only within Crimea.



It's possible, but it's also wishful thinking.  You should talk to the people in Crimea (I realize that's now very difficult), or at least watch some of the videos of people doing street interviews there.  Or you could look at the post referendum polling of Crimeans.

The US actually hired a German company to do one of the post referendum polls, but when they realized the polls showed the referendum results to be accurate, those results were quickly taken down.


--------------------
I am in a minority on the shroomery, as I frequently defend the opposing side when they have a point about something or when my side make believes something about them.  I also attack my side if I think they're wrong.  People here get very confused by that and think it means I prefer the other side.


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OfflineFalcon91Wolvrn03
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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: Stable Genius]
    #28049770 - 11/13/22 10:03 PM (1 year, 2 months ago)

Quote:

Stable Genius said:
I really think the context of the situation needs to be weighed up as well. Crimea was part of Russia, the people did not vote to leave Russia and join Ukraine so why did the rest of Ukraine need to vote on a referendum that had nothing to do with them?



:thatsaten:


--------------------
I am in a minority on the shroomery, as I frequently defend the opposing side when they have a point about something or when my side make believes something about them.  I also attack my side if I think they're wrong.  People here get very confused by that and think it means I prefer the other side.


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OfflineFalcon91Wolvrn03
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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: sudly] * 1
    #28049774 - 11/13/22 10:06 PM (1 year, 2 months ago)

Quote:

sudly said:
Pro Russian voters may have felt safe with Russian troops around true, but that's kind of the point then isn't it, because not everyone was pro Russian.



What does the presence of Russian soldiers in Crimea have to do with anything unless the soldiers were watching how people voted?  They didn't, unless you have evidence they did?


--------------------
I am in a minority on the shroomery, as I frequently defend the opposing side when they have a point about something or when my side make believes something about them.  I also attack my side if I think they're wrong.  People here get very confused by that and think it means I prefer the other side.


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Offlinetwighead
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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: Falcon91Wolvrn03] * 1
    #28049775 - 11/13/22 10:10 PM (1 year, 2 months ago)

There's no need to debate any of those numbers, they're 100% bullshit until a legitimate vote can be taken. It's as simple as that.


( the numbers are total bullshit too for the record)


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OfflineFalcon91Wolvrn03
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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: twighead]
    #28049778 - 11/13/22 10:13 PM (1 year, 2 months ago)

You called the numbers "bullshit".  I guess that invalidates all the post referendum polling done by professional polling agencies.

But I do agree another vote should be taken.  It never will, because the West knows how it will turn out.


--------------------
I am in a minority on the shroomery, as I frequently defend the opposing side when they have a point about something or when my side make believes something about them.  I also attack my side if I think they're wrong.  People here get very confused by that and think it means I prefer the other side.


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Offlinetwighead
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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: Falcon91Wolvrn03]
    #28049789 - 11/13/22 10:23 PM (1 year, 2 months ago)

If they knew they could've legitimately demonstrated massive support they would not have needed to take illegal actions which have resulted in their economy losing hundreds of billions if not over a trillion $ - and complete international rejection of their referendum.


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Offlineiggyhiggy
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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: Falcon91Wolvrn03]
    #28049859 - 11/14/22 12:14 AM (1 year, 2 months ago)

Quote:

Falcon91Wolvrn03 said:

What does the presence of Russian soldiers in Crimea have to do with anything unless the soldiers were watching how people voted?  They didn't, unless you have evidence they did?




Again, NO.
The problem is not just them watching you while voting.
The problem is having a foreign army in your land that may take control militarily if the referendum doesnt go how they wish.


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OfflineStable Genius
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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: sudly] * 1
    #28049864 - 11/14/22 12:27 AM (1 year, 2 months ago)

Quote:

sudly said:

It's appreciated when you quote a source is all I'm saying. 

That Russian military involvement stained the credibility of Crimeas referendum is a nuanced view that takes context into perspective.

Pro Russian voters may have felt safe with Russian troops around true, but that's kind of the point then isn't it, because not everyone was pro Russian.

The context is the military invasion, and it has been weighed up as something that has stained the credibility of the Crimean referendum.

Crimea was a part of Ukraine, that is why it mattered to them.

If there was a national Ukranian vote, I think the probability that Crimea remained as a part of Ukraine was high.

If the UN annexed a part of Ukraine, stationed soldiers within, and began an over reaching campaign for secession with ill keepable promises, I think we would be having the same discussion about their military involvement staining the legitimacy and integrity of the referendum.

If you don't think governmental annexation and military infringements have an influence on referendums you can say it here.




But who calls themselves descendants of the UN? In 2014, anyone over 60 born in Crimea was born Russian. Their children would've grown up speaking Russian.

I don't agree with the premise of your question regarding governmental annexation etc as it's too broad a statement, but will just say again that I don't think the soldiers providing security were much of an issue in a secret ballot election :shrug:


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Invisiblesudly
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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: Stable Genius]
    #28049877 - 11/14/22 12:54 AM (1 year, 2 months ago)

If the UN did to Crimea what Russia did to it, I would criticise that too.

The Crimean government was overtaken by Russian troops, so that's the premise of the question. That's not broad at all.

There was a military infringement in Crimea during the referendum.

Are you saying a government being overtaken, and military infringements don't influence referendums?

What do you think the difference is between American soldiers 'providing security' in Iraq or Afghanistan, and Russian soldiers 'providing security' in Crimea?


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