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OfflineEnkidu
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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: Falcon91Wolvrn03] * 3
    #27673226 - 02/25/22 03:14 PM (2 years, 2 months ago)

Maybe you guys should run for president


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OfflineMach z 800
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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: Kryptos] * 1
    #27673277 - 02/25/22 04:12 PM (2 years, 2 months ago)

Quote:

Stable Genius said:
Quote:

Falcon91Wolvrn03 said:
Russia's not going to reclaim Ukraine.  They haven't even claimed the separatist regions, just recognized them as independent.




They're most likely going to further ruin the country and that's about it. Ukrainians don't want their country split, even in the east.

Maybe Russia could stop supporting a minority in a civil war, perhaps that'd help seeing as they're so concerned about peace?


putin wants to bring Ukraine to its knees so they think they have no other choice but to join Russia.
Quote:

Kryptos said:
Quote:

Fiery said:
just wait till America gets a little power hungry and starts invading its neighboors.


It'll make what Putin is doing look like child play




We have to wait for China's turn.


china is making moves as we speak they are sending ships out twords Taiwan. The question is when will they choose to start a conflict. I hope nothing happens.  But china thinks taiwan has allways been part of china an are dead set on bringing them back in.

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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: Mach z 800] * 1
    #27673289 - 02/25/22 04:30 PM (2 years, 2 months ago)

I doubt Putin wants to formally annex Ukraine. I'm guessing the primary goal is destroying the government.

I guess my prediction that he wouldn't attack was wrong. But, I shall make another: this war will last less than two weeks and will result in no meaningful changes in territory.

Point would be to throw the government into chaos, and essentially force a seat at the table. From a purely financial standpoint, taking control of even just the eastern parts of Ukraine would be idiotic. Eastern Ukraine is a dirt poor backwoods with very little resources. It is only strategically important to Russia if the government of Ukraine is not aligned with Russia.

Of course, the other option is that rationality has left the building, and Putin wants to write his name in History at any cost. That option is a lot messier.

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OfflineFalcon91Wolvrn03
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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: Mach z 800] * 1
    #27673290 - 02/25/22 04:31 PM (2 years, 2 months ago)

Putin doesn't want Ukraine for Russia, that's mainstream news propaganda.  The country is way too far in the gutter for him to want to support it.  The only reason he would take Ukraine is if the US continues to refuse to come to the negotiating table, as we are now.

Biden has ‘no plans’ to talk to Putin


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OfflineStable Genius
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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: Falcon91Wolvrn03] * 1
    #27673292 - 02/25/22 04:33 PM (2 years, 2 months ago)

Quote:

Falcon91Wolvrn03 said:
Maybe the US shouldn't have orchestrated a coup to put in a US friendly President in charge of Ukraine in the first place?  That's when the Russian friendly territories separated (Eastern Ukraine declared their independence in 2014, while Crimea voted to rejoin Russia).

Russia actually made many efforts for peace over the years, but they have all been interfered with by the US.  Plus Ukraine ignored the Minsk agreements.

Too bad Zelensky's become such a puppet of the West.




Valid points for sure, I wish we had better balanced news reports.

However, the only way out now for Russia is to further annexe a region that is minority pro Russian, that's just as obnoxious as U.S. interference.
Ukraine is only strategic to The West if it intends an invasion, which just isn't going to happen. Russia needs to get rid of the war hawks still living in the past, that'd help a shit ton more than any friendly invasion incursion rubber stamped border crossing.

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OfflineStable Genius
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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: Mach z 800] * 2
    #27673303 - 02/25/22 04:42 PM (2 years, 2 months ago)

Quote:

Mach z 800 said:
putin wants to bring Ukraine to its knees so they think they have no other choice but to join Russia.





That'll never happen.

The idea of a 'neutral buffer country' with autonomous regions maybe, but until the U.S. backs off that won't happen either.

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OfflineFalcon91Wolvrn03
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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: Kryptos] * 1
    #27673311 - 02/25/22 04:45 PM (2 years, 2 months ago)

Quote:

Kryptos said:
I doubt Putin wants to formally annex Ukraine. I'm guessing the primary goal is destroying the government.

I guess my prediction that he wouldn't attack was wrong. But, I shall make another: this war will last less than two weeks and will result in no meaningful changes in territory.

Point would be to throw the government into chaos, and essentially force a seat at the table. From a purely financial standpoint, taking control of even just the eastern parts of Ukraine would be idiotic. Eastern Ukraine is a dirt poor backwoods with very little resources. It is only strategically important to Russia if the government of Ukraine is not aligned with Russia.



I agree; I think for the conflict to end, Ukraine has to come to the table, and I'm not so sure the US wants them to.


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OfflineFalcon91Wolvrn03
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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: Stable Genius] * 1
    #27673324 - 02/25/22 04:52 PM (2 years, 2 months ago)

Quote:

Stable Genius said:
the only way out now for Russia is to further annexe a region that is minority pro Russian



What do you mean by "minority pro Russian"?  Do you have a source for that?

As I stated before, Russia's original intention wasn't to annex the regions (though this now might happen given Ukraine's current situation resulting from their unwillingness to have peace talks). The territories might now have to be annexed as the only way to keep them safe from more Ukrainian shelling.


--------------------
I am in a minority on the shroomery, as I frequently defend the opposing side when they have a point about something or when my side make believes something about them.  I also attack my side if I think they're wrong.  People here get very confused by that and think it means I prefer the other side.

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OfflineStable Genius
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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: Falcon91Wolvrn03] * 1
    #27673340 - 02/25/22 05:07 PM (2 years, 2 months ago)

Well from the links I posted somewhere? earlier.

I don't have a problem with your view that Crimea has a majority pro Russian population but I don't believe the same is so for the eastern regions.

Perhaps if Russia stopped supplying the ammo and offered a free one way trip over the border to anyone who took up the offer of the free passports they've been handing out instead?

The armed casualties on both sides are reasonably close = Russia has spent the last 8 years dribbling weapons into the separatists. They ARE a part of the problem here.

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OfflineGene Hackman
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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: nooneman] * 1
    #27673355 - 02/25/22 05:17 PM (2 years, 2 months ago)

Tab for Ukraine, every time you open a tab it raises money to support humanitarian aid for families in the country.

https://tab.gladly.io/ukraine/

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OfflineStable Genius
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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: Falcon91Wolvrn03] * 1
    #27673380 - 02/25/22 05:30 PM (2 years, 2 months ago)

Quote:

Falcon91Wolvrn03 said:
Quote:

Stable Genius said:
the only way out now for Russia is to further annexe a region that is minority pro Russian



What do you mean by "minority pro Russian"?  Do you have a source for that?





https://www.shroomery.org/forums/showflat.php/Number/27671588#27671588

I was reading through that Wiki link you posted, it's very difficult to work out what the real % is.

There was plenty of irregularities on both sides.

Particularly this one
Quote:

The day before the referendum, it was reported in Ukrainian media that a group of pro-Russian separatists in possession of a 100,000 ballots already marked with a 'yes' vote for the referendum were captured during the ongoing government "anti-terrorist" operation, and that the ballots were seized by government forces. Local news reported that polling in some occupied schools had already begun a day in advance.[27][47][48]



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OfflineFalcon91Wolvrn03
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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: Stable Genius] * 1
    #27673393 - 02/25/22 05:52 PM (2 years, 2 months ago)

Quote:

Stable Genius said:
Well from the links I posted somewhere? earlier.

I don't have a problem with your view that Crimea has a majority pro Russian population but I don't believe the same is so for the eastern regions.



Sorry, I missed it.  Here's the best I could find: 2014 Donbas status referendums

"Do you support the Act of State Self-rule of the Donetsk People's Republic?"
Location Donetsk Oblast
Yes 89.07%    No 10.19%    Invalid ballots 0.74%

"Do you support the declaration of state independence of the Luhansk People's Republic?"
Location Luhansk Oblast
Yes 96.2%    No 3.8%

Quote:

Stable Genius said:
Perhaps if Russia stopped supplying the ammo and offered a free one way trip over the border to anyone who took up the offer of the free passports they've been handing out instead?

The armed casualties on both sides are reasonably close = Russia has spent the last 8 years dribbling weapons into the separatists. They ARE a part of the problem here.



The separatists are the ones being attacked.  Should they not be able to fight back?  :shrug:


--------------------
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OfflineStable Genius
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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: Falcon91Wolvrn03] * 1
    #27673418 - 02/25/22 06:19 PM (2 years, 2 months ago)

It'd probably be a lot easier if they crossed the border and racked off to Russia instead of dragging their country through a conflict with no end in sight.

The majority of Ukraine don't want to join Russia, they're being dragged into a conflict they don't want.

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OfflineFalcon91Wolvrn03
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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: Stable Genius] * 1
    #27673428 - 02/25/22 06:30 PM (2 years, 2 months ago)

Many have already left.  I guess that's one way to solve the problem.  "If you don't like it here, just leave".

Quote:

The large influx of individuals seeking asylum in Russia began in July 2014 when the most intensive hostilities evolved. By the end of 2014 (data from 5 December 2014) the number of Ukrainian citizens who stayed in the territory of Russia increased by more than 0.9 million and went up to 2.5 million persons.




--------------------
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OfflineStable Genius
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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: Falcon91Wolvrn03] * 1
    #27673445 - 02/25/22 06:48 PM (2 years, 2 months ago)

Quote:

Falcon91Wolvrn03 said:
I guess that's one way to solve the problem.  "If you don't like it here, just leave".





Well if they aren't in the majority it's home grown terrorism backed and fomented by the Russian government  :shrug:

Also, it's far from unanimous on whether everyday Russians agree with an armed incursion either.

I honestly don't think Putin has read the tea leaves correctly.

https://www.russiamatters.org/analysis/5-polls-contextualize-russia-ukraine-crisis

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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: Falcon91Wolvrn03] * 1
    #27673457 - 02/25/22 07:04 PM (2 years, 2 months ago)

Quote:

Falcon91Wolvrn03 said:
Quote:

Kryptos said:
I doubt Putin wants to formally annex Ukraine. I'm guessing the primary goal is destroying the government.

I guess my prediction that he wouldn't attack was wrong. But, I shall make another: this war will last less than two weeks and will result in no meaningful changes in territory.

Point would be to throw the government into chaos, and essentially force a seat at the table. From a purely financial standpoint, taking control of even just the eastern parts of Ukraine would be idiotic. Eastern Ukraine is a dirt poor backwoods with very little resources. It is only strategically important to Russia if the government of Ukraine is not aligned with Russia.



I agree; I think for the conflict to end, Ukraine has to come to the table, and I'm not so sure the US wants them to.




I just read something similar in a Russian newspaper about two hours ago...some guy from Abkhazia was telling Zelensky to apologize to Putin and give him what he wants.

US or no, I think Ukraine should ignore them.

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OfflineFalcon91Wolvrn03
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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: Stable Genius] * 1
    #27673477 - 02/25/22 07:25 PM (2 years, 2 months ago)

Quote:

Stable Genius said:
Well if they aren't in the majority it's home grown terrorism backed and fomented by the Russian government  :shrug:



If they aren't in the majority of what?  I agree, the majority of Ukrainians don't want them independent.  But the majority of people in the region want their independence (as I've shown above).

The question is whether territories have a right to secede.  Normally, I'd say no. But in this case, the US orchestrated an unconstitutional coup against Ukraine's democratically elected president, and installed a US friendly president.  The pro-Russian areas immediately chose to secede.  In that case I think they have a legitimate reason.

Let's say, for example, Putin took out the US president and put one in of his own choosing, and many states chose to leave.  In that case, I think it'd be justified.  :shrug:

Quote:

Stable Genius said:
Also, it's far from unanimous on whether everyday Russians agree with an armed incursion either.

I honestly don't think Putin has read the tea leaves correctly.

https://www.russiamatters.org/analysis/5-polls-contextualize-russia-ukraine-crisis



Maybe I'm interpreting the results differently than you, but here's what I'm seeing:

Who do you think initiated the aggravation of the situation in eastern Ukraine?
US, NATO countries 50%
Russia 4%

Which of the following opinions regarding the independence of the DPR and LPR would you rather agree with?
The DPR and LPR should become independent states (got the most votes)

In the event of an outbreak of hostilities in eastern Ukraine, should Russia engage in armed conflict on the side of the DPR/LPR?
Yes 43%
No 43%
Difficult to answer 14%

How, in your opinion, would the attitudes of Russians change toward Vladimir Putin in the event of a full-scale war with Ukraine?
It will raise Vladimir Putin’s authority among Russians 16%
It will cause dissatisfaction with Vladimir Putin among Russians 31%
It will not change attitudes toward Vladimir Putin among Russians 42%
It is difficult to say 12%


--------------------
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OfflineFalcon91Wolvrn03
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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: Kryptos] * 1
    #27673478 - 02/25/22 07:26 PM (2 years, 2 months ago)

Quote:

Kryptos said:
...some guy from Abkhazia was telling Zelensky to apologize to Putin and give him what he wants.
US or no, I think Ukraine should ignore them.



I don't think Zelensky should give Putin what he wants; I just think they should have a negotiation to see if they find some common ground.


--------------------
I am in a minority on the shroomery, as I frequently defend the opposing side when they have a point about something or when my side make believes something about them.  I also attack my side if I think they're wrong.  People here get very confused by that and think it means I prefer the other side.

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OfflineKryptos
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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: Falcon91Wolvrn03] * 1
    #27673502 - 02/25/22 07:53 PM (2 years, 2 months ago)

To discuss terms of surrender, you mean?

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OfflineStable Genius
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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: Falcon91Wolvrn03] * 1
    #27673512 - 02/25/22 08:05 PM (2 years, 2 months ago)

Quote:

Falcon91Wolvrn03 said:

Maybe I'm interpreting the results differently than you, but here's what I'm seeing:


In the event of an outbreak of hostilities in eastern Ukraine, should Russia engage in armed conflict on the side of the DPR/LPR?
Yes 43%
No 43%
Difficult to answer 14%





That's the numbers I was looking at, the same article also said,

Quote:

Only 43% of respondents reported that they believe Russia should intervene in a conflict (18% said definitely yes, 25% were somewhat supportive) and another 43% reported that Russia should not intervene (25% were not very supportive and 18% said definitely not). This perhaps implies that while many Russians would support the Donbass being united with Russia, they have a lower threshold for the deleterious effects associated with engaging in an armed conflict



That's far from a clear majority backing armed conflict even with the one sided news.

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