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ballsalsa
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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: Kryptos] 1
#27687279 - 03/08/22 10:02 AM (1 year, 10 months ago) |
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Most wars in the history of mankind lasted for approximately 1 summer. The last couple hundred years are an outlier. Agreed that it may be too early to call this a quagmire but it seems like a quick capitulation was expected, much along the line of U.S. expectations of being greeted as liberators in Iraq (or at least the expectation of shocked and awed acquiescence).
While a gradually accelerating steamroller has been a good analogy for Russian military endeavors in the past, the latter half of the 20th century until now has shown pretty convincingly that this sort of overwhelming crush of men and material has a hard time coming to grips with determined resistance by irregulars which is what I expect this conflict will devolve into sooner or later
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ballsalsa
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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: chopstick]
#27687298 - 03/08/22 10:20 AM (1 year, 10 months ago) |
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That's how international trade works...
Spain sent a whole armada to fuck with England once upon a time. Somehow they still manage to trade with each other. I guess thats...dysfunctional?
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ballsalsa
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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: Kryptos]
#27687371 - 03/08/22 11:24 AM (1 year, 10 months ago) |
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In the short term, chaos may be desirable but in the mid to long term, that sort of thing becomes an albatross around one's neck. I do think that the ideal Russian outcome at this point is probably to roll through, fuck everything up, remove the opposition leadership, declare victory and leave. The issues will arise if Putin decides to stick around and consolidate gains or use Ukraine as a springboard to annex more former soviet states.
Edit: As an aside, Belisarius once defeated an army of over 200k men with less than 20k forces of his own through maneuver and ruse alone and we're talking antiquity here. Large armies did not suddenly arise during the colonial period or something
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Edited by ballsalsa (03/08/22 11:28 AM)
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ballsalsa
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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: Kryptos]
#27687474 - 03/08/22 12:52 PM (1 year, 10 months ago) |
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I dunno, without direct Russian intervention, a destroyed Ukraine might just represent an investment opportunity to western markets. That means Putin can't just leave chaos, he has to at least put up some level of sham Gov't, maybe equivalent to the Karzai admin in Afghanistan. Given that limitation, it might start to make more sense to annex if he thinks he can. He might be able to scoop a couple other former Soviets through intimidation alone if he can pull it off...
You see? It's pretty easy to see the progression of how this sort of thinking could spiral. That said, I feel like Putin understands that Russia has little to gain by reclaiming those former member states other than tough guy street cred, which obviously it already has.
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ballsalsa
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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: koods]
#27687551 - 03/08/22 01:36 PM (1 year, 10 months ago) |
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A destroyed ukraine would have to take on some serious foreign debt to rebuild its infrastructure etc. The kind of debt that ensures political ties for some time. Not to mention all the continued military aid that would be necessary to protect the freshly built nation from known, powerful aggressors.
I'm reasonably sure that western actors feel competent enough to fund/support a counter faction to whatever the Russians leave behind.
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ballsalsa
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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: Kryptos]
#27687661 - 03/08/22 03:02 PM (1 year, 10 months ago) |
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Or to back (read as: create) the most successful of the warring factions. It's a longer play but certainly one that the U.S. is familiar with
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ballsalsa
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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: christopera]
#27687751 - 03/08/22 04:05 PM (1 year, 10 months ago) |
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Honestly, Biden is like a blackjack dealer at this point regarding the issue. What I mean is that his actions will be largely bound to circumstances, much as in blackjack the card values dictate the dealer's actions. If, for example, Putin were to lash out at Poland for "intervening" Biden and other NATO members would be forced to respond in at least a proportional fashion. Barring that or similar change in circumstances any overt intervention is out of the question. The rest is a matter of degree.
I guess what I'm saying is that a canned ham could make the decisions on the western side, currently.
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ballsalsa
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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: Kryptos]
#27687755 - 03/08/22 04:07 PM (1 year, 10 months ago) |
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We always abandon the proxy when its expedient. On that the U.S. is very consistent.
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ballsalsa
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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: Kryptos]
#27688095 - 03/08/22 10:36 PM (1 year, 10 months ago) |
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Your post is a good one. Biden's options in a contingency like this were mapped out 25 years ago though. Standard cold war playbook stuff.
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ballsalsa
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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: chopstick]
#27688905 - 03/09/22 06:36 PM (1 year, 10 months ago) |
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"Alright boys, let's skee-daddle on down the road but before we do let's make sure to sprinkle some nazi patches on this flag. We don't want any confusion."
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ballsalsa
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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: Kryptos]
#27689890 - 03/10/22 03:20 PM (1 year, 10 months ago) |
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Those are vassal terms. Some real Roman shit.
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ballsalsa
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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: chopstick]
#27689994 - 03/10/22 05:00 PM (1 year, 10 months ago) |
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Quote:
chopstick said: If it were up to koods, kryptos and ballsalsa...

Is your position so weak you need straw men to knock down? How does my pointing out that the terms are untenable for any sovereign nation equate to...whatever you said.
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ballsalsa
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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: chopstick]
#27690069 - 03/10/22 06:14 PM (1 year, 10 months ago) |
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What even is a neutral country and how does a mere declaration confer this neutral status?
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ballsalsa
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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: koods] 1
#27690076 - 03/10/22 06:16 PM (1 year, 10 months ago) |
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Yeah, just casually give up some territory to foreign backed rebels. No biggie
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ballsalsa
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So neutral in a 1980s Cold War sense? How is a designation like that even relevant without a Soviet Union? What gives Russia any right to a specific sphere of political influence outside its own borders other than the ability to impose its will via military action?
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ballsalsa
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Coups happen all the time. Sometimes the U.S. orchestrates it and sometimes its other covert forces. They can't be constructed from ether though. There have to be local partisans in place to have real effect. You don't just get to invade everyone whose political winds aren't blowing your way at the moment. Or maybe you can if you're Russia. We're finding that out. Seems like a total shit show so far and if we extrapolate vs initial U.S. successes in Iraq, this is going to be a complete military, financial and political disaster if it continues even a fraction of the time that conflict did.
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ballsalsa
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I support coups over invasions...I guess? I mean, I don't really support either tbh and I don't see how opposition to one equals support for the other.
I'm pragmatic enough to believe that western and russian actors have had thier fingers in the Ukraine pot. I haven't seen anything to make me believe that Russia is all benevolence and rainbows NATO and the EU are all kid diddlers and war criminals.
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ballsalsa
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Without direct Russian aggression Crimea and Donbas would still be part of Ukraine but what does my support have to do with anything at all? Can it change the past? Maybe the Russians will be greeted as liberators by the Ukrainian civilians. If not, it's probably because they're all nazis, am I right?
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ballsalsa
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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: shivas.wisdom]
#27691263 - 03/11/22 03:02 PM (1 year, 10 months ago) |
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I don't think that the implication was that you are an FBI intern, just that enough keywords have been posted ITT to get the conversation flagged
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ballsalsa
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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: koods] 1
#27691359 - 03/11/22 04:12 PM (1 year, 10 months ago) |
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They get the security council seat because they have the ability to nuke shit and convincing geopolitical reasons to potentially do so. Soviet union or no, those missiles are still armed
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