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OfflineKryptos
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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: Fiery] * 4
    #27671598 - 02/24/22 11:40 AM (1 year, 10 months ago)

Nah, we're right on schedule if you believe in the 70 year cycle theory.

Personally, I think the cycle is related to life expectancy: once most of the veterans die off and living memory fades, the war begins again.

If I was you, I'd start working on a plan to avoid getting drafted.


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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: Psilynut2] * 3
    #27672870 - 02/25/22 10:13 AM (1 year, 10 months ago)

The thesis I see from a lot of Republicans is that by virtue of Trump being in office, none of this would have ever happened because Trump is just so powerful that he doesn't even need to do anything, he would have just prevented it.

Of course, he does need to plant his ass in the right chair. Apparently, he does not have that same power in the wrong chair.

A bit like the pope.


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OfflineKryptos
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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: theRealrollforever] * 1
    #27673020 - 02/25/22 11:59 AM (1 year, 10 months ago)

Quote:

theRealrollforever said:
Quote:

Kryptos said:
The thesis I see from a lot of Republicans is that by virtue of Trump being in office, none of this would have ever happened because Trump is just so powerful that he doesn't even need to do anything, he would have just prevented it.

Of course, he does need to plant his ass in the right chair. Apparently, he does not have that same power in the wrong chair.

A bit like the pope.



I think a big part of why Putin is emboldened was the whole oil thing.  I'm not claiming to be an authority and I'm sure I will be informed how I am wrong, but gas has been steady climbing for the two years since biden took office.  At the same time we have put a "halt/freeze" on domestic energy drilling due to "climate concerns".  I am more concerned with the fact we have to buy oil from a dictator that is leaning towards starting the Third World War opposed to climate changes. Every dollar we have to send to Russia for oil is essentially weakening us and strengthening them.

Not to mention it looks like they will be allying with China pretty soon outright.  For a Third World War I believe China has to be involved, and now they are.  If there's a perfect storm, it's probably having to go up against the Chinese economy and the Russian military while being unable to really hurt their economy due to the sheer dependency we have on essential goods from those countries

:justdontknow:




Well, your first mistake is the idea that the US has shut down oil production. Oil production in the US is the highest it has ever been. The US is now energy independent. Biden has only stopped leasing new federal land for new oil rigs. The rigs that have already been there are running full tilt and new rigs are being put on private land daily.

The US barely buys any Russian oil. Russian imports were 7% of total oil imports in the US last year.

Buying oil for USD from Russia doesn't actually hurt the US all that much, because we control the USD. What is Russia gonna do with USD? The much bigger concern, right now, is that Russia is actively getting rid of its USD holdings and buying up gold and other currencies. That gives us less leverage over their economy.

Finally, Russia and China have been working together for some time now. They did joint military exercises while Trump was in office, and China has clearly given tacit approval, or at least the promise of not getting in the way of, Putin's war. I'm guessing they also have some deal worked out where China will start buying oil that the EU and US stop buying. The scary thing is that they will likely buy that oil for gold, instead of using USD like every other oil deal in the world. This means the USD won't be as dominant, which hurts the US economy.


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OfflineKryptos
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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: theRealrollforever] * 1
    #27673043 - 02/25/22 12:14 PM (1 year, 10 months ago)

Quote:

theRealrollforever said:
Why is gas the most it has been in years then?  I don't understand why the price would rise when the supply is the "highest it's ever been"




Because demand is also the highest it's ever been, and for the last two years, demand has been artificially lowered by the pandemic?

Gas was 5$ a gallon when Bush left office. Gas is only expensive when compared to the lockdowns. Overall, gas is pretty cheap, still.

I'm almost certain gas will spike on the expectation of gas spiking, as oil companies realize they can jack up prices and blame it on the war. Edit: just saw a headline of some oil exec promising that they will not take advantage of the war to raise prices. So, they will almost certainly do that.

Matter of fact, I think that explains a good bit of the inflation we see. Companies see headlines about inflation and figure they can raise their margins a bit without taking the blame. That's why the last year, with all the inflation, was still one of the more profitable years in corporate history.


Edited by Kryptos (02/25/22 12:15 PM)


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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: Fiery] * 1
    #27673167 - 02/25/22 02:25 PM (1 year, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Fiery said:
just wait till America gets a little power hungry and starts invading its neighboors.


It'll make what Putin is doing look like child play




We have to wait for China's turn.


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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: Mach z 800] * 1
    #27673289 - 02/25/22 04:30 PM (1 year, 10 months ago)

I doubt Putin wants to formally annex Ukraine. I'm guessing the primary goal is destroying the government.

I guess my prediction that he wouldn't attack was wrong. But, I shall make another: this war will last less than two weeks and will result in no meaningful changes in territory.

Point would be to throw the government into chaos, and essentially force a seat at the table. From a purely financial standpoint, taking control of even just the eastern parts of Ukraine would be idiotic. Eastern Ukraine is a dirt poor backwoods with very little resources. It is only strategically important to Russia if the government of Ukraine is not aligned with Russia.

Of course, the other option is that rationality has left the building, and Putin wants to write his name in History at any cost. That option is a lot messier.


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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: Falcon91Wolvrn03] * 1
    #27673457 - 02/25/22 07:04 PM (1 year, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Falcon91Wolvrn03 said:
Quote:

Kryptos said:
I doubt Putin wants to formally annex Ukraine. I'm guessing the primary goal is destroying the government.

I guess my prediction that he wouldn't attack was wrong. But, I shall make another: this war will last less than two weeks and will result in no meaningful changes in territory.

Point would be to throw the government into chaos, and essentially force a seat at the table. From a purely financial standpoint, taking control of even just the eastern parts of Ukraine would be idiotic. Eastern Ukraine is a dirt poor backwoods with very little resources. It is only strategically important to Russia if the government of Ukraine is not aligned with Russia.



I agree; I think for the conflict to end, Ukraine has to come to the table, and I'm not so sure the US wants them to.




I just read something similar in a Russian newspaper about two hours ago...some guy from Abkhazia was telling Zelensky to apologize to Putin and give him what he wants.

US or no, I think Ukraine should ignore them.


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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: Falcon91Wolvrn03] * 1
    #27673502 - 02/25/22 07:53 PM (1 year, 10 months ago)

To discuss terms of surrender, you mean?


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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: Stable Genius]
    #27677087 - 02/28/22 03:43 PM (1 year, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Stable Genius said:
Falcon posted this in another thread showing the U.S. government's shitfuckery involved in the events leading up to this mess so it belongs here seeing as they have their fingers all over this.




Caveat: didn't watch the video, I'm not spending 40 minutes on that.

Even if the US is doing some dirty shit, I don't think that should be grounds for an invasion. If it is, then virtually any country in the world is justified in invading virtually every other country in the world, because every country in the world is at the mercy of US/Russian/Chinese foreign policy/shitfuckery.


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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: syncro]
    #27677108 - 02/28/22 04:06 PM (1 year, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Psilynut2 said:
Quote:

invasion. If it is, then virtually any country in the world is justified in invading virtually every other country in the world, because every country in the world is at the mercy of



 
    We should invade Canada , did you see the trucker parade ? Nothing but Nazis up there .




Did you hear Lauren Boebert earlier today? She said Russia should invade the US and Canada to get rid of "tyranny".

Quote:

syncro said:
It's worth the watch. A point is US used Ukraine and now it looks like they're on their own when it comes to fighting which NATO, apparently, would likely never do for them. And of course the washed narrative is about sympathy and righteous indignation. They knew this would trigger the invasion at some point.




I know. The US has meddled extensively in Eastern Europe, and I think everyone knew that they wouldn't actually back Ukraine up when the shit hit the fan. Don't get me wrong, I don't accept the sanitized western narrative either. But, again, if that is legitimate grounds for invasion, then virtually every country would be right to invade virtually every other country.

There aren't really any good guys in this situation. It's just a slow return to the State of Nature. The strong do what they will, and the weak suffer what they must. Ukraine's turn to suffer.


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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: Stable Genius]
    #27677176 - 02/28/22 05:14 PM (1 year, 10 months ago)

There's almost certainly some far right neo-nazi political groups active in Ukraine, they've been popping up everywhere. Hell, they have them in Russia (and I think a few back Putin).

It's a tiny little swastika-shaped fig leaf.


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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: syncro] * 1
    #27677294 - 02/28/22 07:01 PM (1 year, 10 months ago)

Azov Battalion was apparently incorporated into the Ukranian army after they fought the Russians in Crimea, they're a pretty big neo nazi name.


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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: Asante]
    #27679889 - 03/02/22 04:26 PM (1 year, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Asante said:
I notice in my offline life that some antivax people tend to have pro russia stances. Its like their position is contrarianism.




They probably watch Tucker Carlson.


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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: Fiery] * 2
    #27681207 - 03/03/22 03:37 PM (1 year, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Fiery said:
NATO and the EU need to meet secretly and strike every single one of Russians nuclear missile facilities, and cripple Russia by surprise and then Putin will be fucked . That would take a massive effort but it could be done.




No it can't. No nukes in the world fast enough to strike before Russia responds. Even if the US had hypersonic nukes, like Russia, they wouldn't get there in time.

This is, of course, ignoring the tens if not hundreds of millions of deaths from nuking Russia, and the billions of deaths caused by global fallout.


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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: Fiery]
    #27681388 - 03/03/22 06:30 PM (1 year, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Fiery said:
Right, but the point is, is that would be better than an UNEXPECTED nuclear war.. which is bound to happen if this bullshit Putin is pulling keeps up. China is next.




What's China gonna do? They seem content buying countries. They're pretty good at it, too.


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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: Fiery]
    #27681630 - 03/03/22 09:40 PM (1 year, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Brian Jones said:
Quote:

Psilynut2 said:
Putin just gave a speech and said he believes Ukraine has always been part of Russia and that he is saving half of the population that was tricked by the Nazis .
   
  Gotta listen to both sides of the argument bro .




I guess it was a month or two ago, Putin said in reference to Ukraine, "Lenin took it. It belongs to us." Not a word about Nazis then.




And this is why this:

Quote:

Fiery said:
Right, but the point is, is that would be better than an UNEXPECTED nuclear war.. which is bound to happen if this bullshit Putin is pulling keeps up. China is next.




Won't happen. Putin is a KGB agent. He wants the USSR with him on top, not Fallout: Moscow.

He also probably wants his own MAGA cult. CPBO? Sounds too much like cheese. They need a better acronym.


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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: Asante] * 2
    #27682312 - 03/04/22 10:33 AM (1 year, 10 months ago)

Quote:

wolf8312 said:
If the racist flags at the Canadian protests were proof that the Canadian protestors were all Nazis and racists, would the appearance of fascist flags at a Ukrainian protest prove that the Ukrainian protestors were also all Nazis and racists?




The nazi flags at the trucker protest weren't the reason they were decried as racists, the fact that the organizers of the protest had long histories of nativism, nationalism, and ethnically exclusionary statements and actions were the reason the protesters were considered racist. The nazi flags at their rallies were just icing on the white supremacist cake.

Quote:

Asante said:
In Russian cities, gangs of neonazis run around town with baseball bats and pipes, savagely beating up every non-Russian they see but especially nonwhite ones.




Lyubery.

люберы

More anti-immigrant than anything else, they've existed for quite some time. I don't know about them being neo nazis, but I wouldn't be surprised if they kinda fell into that ideology. I don't think they have historically had much association with nazis, besides being anti-immigrant.


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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: wolf8312] * 2
    #27682470 - 03/04/22 12:30 PM (1 year, 10 months ago)

Quote:

wolf8312 said:
Put all these things you mentioned together and what do you really have a Nazi or a conservative?




Ya know, it's getting harder and harder to tell the difference.

And I'm not watering anything down. The organizers of the trucker rallies are pretty explicitly white supremacists, and a number of them have given interviews with Nazi imagery and paraphernalia in the background. Presumably their living rooms.


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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: christopera]
    #27682535 - 03/04/22 01:43 PM (1 year, 10 months ago)

Lol nah, the organizers aren't truckers. The truckers are the GIs, not the generals.


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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: christopera]
    #27682714 - 03/04/22 03:44 PM (1 year, 10 months ago)

I know, it's almost like it was astroturfed to shit and has next to no actual support (as evidenced by the collapse of the US trucker rallies)

How many weeks police crackdowns did it take to stop BLM protests? The truckers folded in less than a day.


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