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OfflineFalcon91Wolvrn03
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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: Deepfreeze] * 1
    #27671976 - 02/24/22 05:02 PM (1 year, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Deepfreeze said:
Just 7 years ago Maidan happened and what West did?



The US orchestrated Euromaidan.  Evidence here.


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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: Blue Cthulhu] * 1
    #27672060 - 02/24/22 05:58 PM (1 year, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Blue Cthulhu said:
I don't think it would have been unreasonable for the US to have agreed to never incorporate Ukraine into NATO. It's on Russia's border, for God's sake, of course they don't want NATO right up their ass.



Exactly.  :thumbup:

Quote:

Blue Cthulhu said:
Maybe a better historian can answer this, but didn't the US agree to not expand NATO anyway sometime around the end of the Cold War?



The US agreed not to expand NATO eastward around the time East Germany reunited with West Germany.

West promised not to expand NATO


--------------------
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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: Blue Cthulhu] * 1
    #27672119 - 02/24/22 06:31 PM (1 year, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Blue Cthulhu said:
Thank you! Obviously already violated since Poland is a NATO member.



Not just Poland.  Here's a map of countries that have joined NATO since our promise.  You can see why Russia wouldn't want Ukraine to join:



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OfflineFalcon91Wolvrn03
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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: budmanman] * 1
    #27672133 - 02/24/22 06:36 PM (1 year, 10 months ago)

Quote:

budmanman said:
Russian today site not loading.



Ya, it was down for a bit.  I can load it again.

Calls to ban RT in UK show what politicians really think of free speech


--------------------
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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: Enkidu] * 1
    #27672360 - 02/24/22 09:52 PM (1 year, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Enkidu said:
So it's time for them to reclaim the motherland or what ?

Patiently waited



:justno:


--------------------
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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: Stable Genius] * 1
    #27673089 - 02/25/22 01:17 PM (1 year, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Stable Genius said:
Quote:

Falcon91Wolvrn03 said:
The US agreed not to expand NATO eastward around the time East Germany reunited with West Germany.

West promised not to expand NATO




I'm not convinced this is some sort of smoking gun that proves much :shrug:

In the minutes of that meeting, this was also said
Quote:

'We could not therefore offer membership of NATO to Poland and the others. We might however consider referring to our interest in these countries in future NATO declarations.'



That doesn't sound like an unwavering promise that carries any weight to me?



Let's look at the full context:

"We had made it clear during the negotiations that we would not extend NATO beyond the Elbe.  We could not therefore offer membership of NATO to Poland and other countries.  We might however consider referring to our interest in these countries in future NATO declarations."

I think it's pretty clear we agreed NATO would not extend beyond the Elbe.  Having an "interest" in these countries isn't the same as offering membership to those countries.  :shrug:


--------------------
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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: Brian Jones] * 1
    #27673092 - 02/25/22 01:19 PM (1 year, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Brian Jones said:
I don't think there is any point to try to argue with Falcon or Ecstatic that we didn't promise to not expand NATO eastward. They both think that the fact that any such agreement was made without the OK of the President of the United States (Clinton or HW Bush) is not relevant.



I just quoted the promise above.  I agree with you that it wasn't put in a treaty, and we don't know if it had the OK of the President, but the promise was made.

Russia learned that US promises can't be trusted, and agreements need to be put in writing in the future.


--------------------
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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: Enkidu] * 1
    #27673099 - 02/25/22 01:26 PM (1 year, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Enkidu said:
Quote:

Falcon91Wolvrn03 said:
Quote:

Enkidu said:
So it's time for them to reclaim the motherland or what ?

Patiently waited



:justno:




What the fuck are you shaking your head at



Russia's not going to reclaim Ukraine.  They haven't even claimed the separatist regions, just recognized them as independent.


--------------------
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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: Stable Genius] * 1
    #27673137 - 02/25/22 01:59 PM (1 year, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Stable Genius said:
Quote:

Falcon91Wolvrn03 said:
Let's look at the full context:





Ok.

Quote:

Decisions on membership are taken by consensus among all Allies.


Did that occur? No :shrug:

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_111767.htm#c203



Again, I understand the promise wasn't legally binding.  Russia learned its lesson not to trust the US.


--------------------
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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: Stable Genius] * 2
    #27673159 - 02/25/22 02:20 PM (1 year, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Stable Genius said:
Quote:

Falcon91Wolvrn03 said:
Russia's not going to reclaim Ukraine.  They haven't even claimed the separatist regions, just recognized them as independent.



They're most likely going to further ruin the country and that's about it.



Which is why Russia would never take them.  It'd be far too expensive.

Quote:

Stable Genius said:
Ukrainians don't want their country split, even in the east.

Maybe Russia could stop supporting a minority in a civil war, perhaps that'd help seeing as they're so concerned about peace?



Maybe the US shouldn't have orchestrated a coup to put in a US friendly President in charge of Ukraine in the first place?  That's when the Russian friendly territories separated (Eastern Ukraine declared their independence in 2014, while Crimea voted to rejoin Russia).

Russia actually made many efforts for peace over the years, but they have all been interfered with by the US.  Plus Ukraine ignored the Minsk agreements.

Too bad Zelensky's become such a puppet of the West.


--------------------
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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: Fiery] * 2
    #27673177 - 02/25/22 02:35 PM (1 year, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Fiery said:
just wait till America gets a little power hungry and starts invading its neighboors.


It'll make what Putin is doing look like child play



It already has.  America's been overthrowing governments for centuries, including Ukraine's own Government in 2014.


--------------------
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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: Mach z 800] * 1
    #27673290 - 02/25/22 04:31 PM (1 year, 10 months ago)

Putin doesn't want Ukraine for Russia, that's mainstream news propaganda.  The country is way too far in the gutter for him to want to support it.  The only reason he would take Ukraine is if the US continues to refuse to come to the negotiating table, as we are now.

Biden has ‘no plans’ to talk to Putin


--------------------
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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: Kryptos] * 1
    #27673311 - 02/25/22 04:45 PM (1 year, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Kryptos said:
I doubt Putin wants to formally annex Ukraine. I'm guessing the primary goal is destroying the government.

I guess my prediction that he wouldn't attack was wrong. But, I shall make another: this war will last less than two weeks and will result in no meaningful changes in territory.

Point would be to throw the government into chaos, and essentially force a seat at the table. From a purely financial standpoint, taking control of even just the eastern parts of Ukraine would be idiotic. Eastern Ukraine is a dirt poor backwoods with very little resources. It is only strategically important to Russia if the government of Ukraine is not aligned with Russia.



I agree; I think for the conflict to end, Ukraine has to come to the table, and I'm not so sure the US wants them to.


--------------------
I am in a minority on the shroomery, as I frequently defend the opposing side when they have a point about something or when my side make believes something about them.  I also attack my side if I think they're wrong.  People here get very confused by that and think it means I prefer the other side.


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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: Stable Genius] * 1
    #27673324 - 02/25/22 04:52 PM (1 year, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Stable Genius said:
the only way out now for Russia is to further annexe a region that is minority pro Russian



What do you mean by "minority pro Russian"?  Do you have a source for that?

As I stated before, Russia's original intention wasn't to annex the regions (though this now might happen given Ukraine's current situation resulting from their unwillingness to have peace talks). The territories might now have to be annexed as the only way to keep them safe from more Ukrainian shelling.


--------------------
I am in a minority on the shroomery, as I frequently defend the opposing side when they have a point about something or when my side make believes something about them.  I also attack my side if I think they're wrong.  People here get very confused by that and think it means I prefer the other side.


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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: Stable Genius] * 1
    #27673393 - 02/25/22 05:52 PM (1 year, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Stable Genius said:
Well from the links I posted somewhere? earlier.

I don't have a problem with your view that Crimea has a majority pro Russian population but I don't believe the same is so for the eastern regions.



Sorry, I missed it.  Here's the best I could find: 2014 Donbas status referendums

"Do you support the Act of State Self-rule of the Donetsk People's Republic?"
Location Donetsk Oblast
Yes 89.07%    No 10.19%    Invalid ballots 0.74%

"Do you support the declaration of state independence of the Luhansk People's Republic?"
Location Luhansk Oblast
Yes 96.2%    No 3.8%

Quote:

Stable Genius said:
Perhaps if Russia stopped supplying the ammo and offered a free one way trip over the border to anyone who took up the offer of the free passports they've been handing out instead?

The armed casualties on both sides are reasonably close = Russia has spent the last 8 years dribbling weapons into the separatists. They ARE a part of the problem here.



The separatists are the ones being attacked.  Should they not be able to fight back?  :shrug:


--------------------
I am in a minority on the shroomery, as I frequently defend the opposing side when they have a point about something or when my side make believes something about them.  I also attack my side if I think they're wrong.  People here get very confused by that and think it means I prefer the other side.


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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: Stable Genius] * 1
    #27673428 - 02/25/22 06:30 PM (1 year, 10 months ago)

Many have already left.  I guess that's one way to solve the problem.  "If you don't like it here, just leave".

Quote:

The large influx of individuals seeking asylum in Russia began in July 2014 when the most intensive hostilities evolved. By the end of 2014 (data from 5 December 2014) the number of Ukrainian citizens who stayed in the territory of Russia increased by more than 0.9 million and went up to 2.5 million persons.




--------------------
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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: Stable Genius] * 1
    #27673477 - 02/25/22 07:25 PM (1 year, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Stable Genius said:
Well if they aren't in the majority it's home grown terrorism backed and fomented by the Russian government  :shrug:



If they aren't in the majority of what?  I agree, the majority of Ukrainians don't want them independent.  But the majority of people in the region want their independence (as I've shown above).

The question is whether territories have a right to secede.  Normally, I'd say no. But in this case, the US orchestrated an unconstitutional coup against Ukraine's democratically elected president, and installed a US friendly president.  The pro-Russian areas immediately chose to secede.  In that case I think they have a legitimate reason.

Let's say, for example, Putin took out the US president and put one in of his own choosing, and many states chose to leave.  In that case, I think it'd be justified.  :shrug:

Quote:

Stable Genius said:
Also, it's far from unanimous on whether everyday Russians agree with an armed incursion either.

I honestly don't think Putin has read the tea leaves correctly.

https://www.russiamatters.org/analysis/5-polls-contextualize-russia-ukraine-crisis



Maybe I'm interpreting the results differently than you, but here's what I'm seeing:

Who do you think initiated the aggravation of the situation in eastern Ukraine?
US, NATO countries 50%
Russia 4%

Which of the following opinions regarding the independence of the DPR and LPR would you rather agree with?
The DPR and LPR should become independent states (got the most votes)

In the event of an outbreak of hostilities in eastern Ukraine, should Russia engage in armed conflict on the side of the DPR/LPR?
Yes 43%
No 43%
Difficult to answer 14%

How, in your opinion, would the attitudes of Russians change toward Vladimir Putin in the event of a full-scale war with Ukraine?
It will raise Vladimir Putin’s authority among Russians 16%
It will cause dissatisfaction with Vladimir Putin among Russians 31%
It will not change attitudes toward Vladimir Putin among Russians 42%
It is difficult to say 12%


--------------------
I am in a minority on the shroomery, as I frequently defend the opposing side when they have a point about something or when my side make believes something about them.  I also attack my side if I think they're wrong.  People here get very confused by that and think it means I prefer the other side.


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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: Kryptos] * 1
    #27673478 - 02/25/22 07:26 PM (1 year, 10 months ago)

Quote:

Kryptos said:
...some guy from Abkhazia was telling Zelensky to apologize to Putin and give him what he wants.
US or no, I think Ukraine should ignore them.



I don't think Zelensky should give Putin what he wants; I just think they should have a negotiation to see if they find some common ground.


--------------------
I am in a minority on the shroomery, as I frequently defend the opposing side when they have a point about something or when my side make believes something about them.  I also attack my side if I think they're wrong.  People here get very confused by that and think it means I prefer the other side.


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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: Brian Jones] * 1
    #27673530 - 02/25/22 08:25 PM (1 year, 10 months ago)

Can you post where you found the President didn't give his negotiators the power to negotiate?

You may be right, I'm just curious to see how you reached your conclusion.


--------------------
I am in a minority on the shroomery, as I frequently defend the opposing side when they have a point about something or when my side make believes something about them.  I also attack my side if I think they're wrong.  People here get very confused by that and think it means I prefer the other side.


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Re: The Official Ukraine War Thread. [Re: Brian Jones] * 3
    #27673542 - 02/25/22 08:45 PM (1 year, 10 months ago)

This is a really interesting interview of Scott Ritter by Richard Medhurst.  Probably too long for most here to watch, but Scott really has an interesting perspective on the conflict. 

I'm posting this because he talks about America's assurances not to expand NATO Eastward (from 33:27-34:11).



--------------------
I am in a minority on the shroomery, as I frequently defend the opposing side when they have a point about something or when my side make believes something about them.  I also attack my side if I think they're wrong.  People here get very confused by that and think it means I prefer the other side.


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