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OfflineStable Genius
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Re: Warfare to disrupt society forthem [Re: Kryptos]
    #27648321 - 02/06/22 01:20 PM (2 years, 3 months ago)

Here's a scenario.

That gas pipeline mysteriously blows up but luckily there's that spare one sitting there ready to go.

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OfflineKryptos
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Re: Warfare to disrupt society forthem [Re: Stable Genius]
    #27648514 - 02/06/22 04:28 PM (2 years, 3 months ago)

Might not be the most unreasonable scenario. Definitely more reasonable than an invasion.

Who would that scenario help?

Who could be blamed for the explosion?

Where does the explosion happen?

Any sort of violence is destabilizing, so it helps whoever is trying to use chaos for their own means. This would be Putin. Especially if there is a very obvious piece of evidence showing that it is an anti-Russian attack, but if it's a Ukrainian nationalist attack, then this kind of complicates one possible method of forcing Ukraine into the Russian sphere of influence. If this explosion happens near the Russian border, then it's going to look like the attack was meant to hurt Russia, but it would also hurt European energy. Of course, this winter doesn't seem to be nearly as cold as, for example, last year, and BoJo is already taking a bit of a fall with UK energy prices. It would be hard to use a destroyed pipeline as leverage this particular year. Of course, the inflation rhetoric out of the US primarily blames Biden for raising the prices of gas, even though the prices of gas are very low. This might be able to manufacture an inflationary crisis, while further attacking the entire concept of liberal government where people get a say in their future, since that is now closely tied to the democratic party. I guess that depoends on your definition of "liberal", because some definitions of liberal have been...fairly jesus-y lately.

I think the scenario you proposed is exactly what the US recently referred to as a possible false flag scenario goading the US into war.

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OfflineStable Genius
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Re: Warfare to disrupt society forthem [Re: Kryptos]
    #27648837 - 02/06/22 08:27 PM (2 years, 3 months ago)

Yep, with construction finished on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline the timing is pretty convenient.
If the existing pipeline shits itself that would ensure the new pipeline is brought into service immediately circumventing any leverage from the U.S. as well as cutting revenue to the Ukraine at the same time.
No need for an invasion like Putin keeps blabbing on about.
Just a guess though.

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OfflineKryptos
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Re: Warfare to disrupt society forthem [Re: Stable Genius]
    #27648913 - 02/06/22 09:34 PM (2 years, 3 months ago)

Destabilizing Ukraine would probably piss off other parts of Europe, which limits the potential customer base. Especially since Biden indicated a willingness to ship LNG over.

Germany would definitely stand to benefit. Merkel was good at putting Germany in a position that things just turn out extremely well for Germany. I wonder if the new guy will maintain that.

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OfflineStable Genius
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Re: Warfare to disrupt society forthem [Re: Kryptos]
    #27649105 - 02/07/22 03:52 AM (2 years, 3 months ago)

I think the U.S. is at maximum capacity with their LNG export.

When the tap was turned off in 2008? I'm pretty sure the number of LNG port facilities in the EU increased.

Those things take years to construct. Like you said earlier China would buy the gas but getting there is the problem. I think China would happily end our(Aus) LNG contracts if it could find another supplier.

I'd guess people a lot smarter than me have played things forward but the more I think about that pipeline having a misadventure it seems to make sense.

The U.S. isn't the only government capable of stupid shit.

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OfflineKryptos
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Re: Warfare to disrupt society forthem [Re: Stable Genius]
    #27649218 - 02/07/22 07:22 AM (2 years, 3 months ago)

I dunno if I'm willing to buy such a permanent misadventure.

However, having additional capacity going outside of the Ukrainian borders does allow Russia to more specifically fuck with Ukraine, while shipping gas to the rest of Europe through Germany.

Blowing up a pipeline removes it from the board, which reduces chaos down the line.

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OfflineStable Genius
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Re: Warfare to disrupt society forthem [Re: Kryptos]
    #27649677 - 02/07/22 03:43 PM (2 years, 3 months ago)

Not necessarily a major catastrophe.
Just enough of a calamity to bring Nord Stream II into service… repair the fault… job done.

I’m just speculating, but I’d be willing to take a bet on a pipeline failure before summer IF Nord Stream  II isn’t given final approval to operate by then.
Just to put my money where my big mouth is, and to be honest I’d be happy to loose and see this latest drama fizzle out.

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OfflineStable Genius
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Re: Warfare to disrupt society forthem [Re: Stable Genius]
    #27649927 - 02/07/22 07:11 PM (2 years, 3 months ago)

$50 U.S. towards one of the Shroomery’s charitable endeavours if anyone is interested.

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OfflineKryptos
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Re: Warfare to disrupt society forthem [Re: Stable Genius]
    #27650546 - 02/08/22 08:02 AM (2 years, 3 months ago)

While I agree with your thinking, it seems like more of a plan B for me. Short term goal sounds like using the threat of invasion to force Nord Stream 2 through, and then using the ability to bypass Ukrainian pipelines to draw Ukraine back into the Russian sphere of influence.

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OfflineStable Genius
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Re: Warfare to disrupt society forthem [Re: Kryptos]
    #27651040 - 02/08/22 02:30 PM (2 years, 3 months ago)

Maybe things will be a little clearer after Olaf Scholz has a chat with Putin next week... he better keep an eye on his underpants while he's there.

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OfflineKryptos
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Re: Warfare to disrupt society forthem [Re: Stable Genius]
    #27651125 - 02/08/22 04:04 PM (2 years, 3 months ago)

Eh, Germany is the cornerstone of Europe, economically and to an extent culturally. Plus, Germany stands to benefit quite a bit from the new pipeline.

I think Scholz is going to have a much more difficult time negotiating with Biden.

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OfflineStable Genius
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Re: Warfare to disrupt society forthem [Re: Kryptos]
    #27651285 - 02/08/22 06:24 PM (2 years, 3 months ago)

Yes I guess so.
This puts Scholz in an awkward position. If he comes away with a de escalation in troop numbers of sorts it makes the U.S. claims that Germany is in ‘lock step’ irrelevant.

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OfflineKryptos
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Re: Warfare to disrupt society forthem [Re: Stable Genius]
    #27651311 - 02/08/22 06:40 PM (2 years, 3 months ago)

Merkel picked a good time to step out, too.

Scholz is definitely in an awkward position, but this, once again, comes down to political will. Personally, I don't think there is anything particularly wrong with Nord Stream 2. I also don't think that Putin wants to start a war, and Biden I'm sure could do without the extra headache. Ukraine is...well, they're an eastern European backwater. They don't really get to make their own way, their future lies within the EU or Russia. They could try to pull an Egypt and play both sides, but that probably will not work out for them.

Ideally, Ukraine would take the opportunity to push for renewables. That would solve a lot of their own problems, as well as give a good amount of international prestige.

The biggest risk are, once again, the war hawks on either side. Putin's almost certainly got a flunky or two itching to attack, and a cursory glance at reddit shows a lot of (surface level) support for another war.

Scholz should do nothing. He sent a token force of 350 soldiers, and he should just sit down and shut his mouth. If he just makes vaguely positive yet noncommital noises whenever Biden or Putin speak, he's gonna come out on top. Most Germans support the pipeline (for obvious reasons). Let's see if he can stand up to international pressure.

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OfflineStable Genius
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Re: Warfare to disrupt society forthem [Re: Kryptos]
    #27651329 - 02/08/22 06:48 PM (2 years, 3 months ago)

Yes the main problem with that pipeline seems to be emanating from the U.S. government

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OfflineKryptos
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Re: Warfare to disrupt society forthem [Re: Stable Genius]
    #27651386 - 02/08/22 07:29 PM (2 years, 3 months ago)

And Ukraine. The pipeline threatens one of the few things keeping Ukraine relevant: the ability to fuck with the EU gas supply.

The US, of course, never likes it when a customer finds a better dealer.

With any luck, the French Tokamak will make this point moot by 2025. Edit: shit, apparently it's 2035, now. Well, China should get one going before then.

Edited by Kryptos (02/08/22 07:33 PM)

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InvisibleApexIntelligence20
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Re: Warfare to disrupt society forthem [Re: Kryptos]
    #27654231 - 02/10/22 07:05 PM (2 years, 3 months ago)

Yes, so do Jews target blacks with Rap music, designed to create drug dealers.

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OfflineBrian Jones
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Re: Warfare to disrupt society forthem [Re: ApexIntelligence20]
    #27654806 - 02/11/22 07:42 AM (2 years, 3 months ago)

Jews are frequently viewed as dominating the movie business, not music.
Matisyahu is an Orthodox Jewish rapper, but more of a positive message.


--------------------
"The Rolling Stones will break up over Brian Jones' dead body"    John Lennon

I don't want no commies in my car. No Christians either.

The worst thing about corruption is that it works so well,

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OfflineBrian Jones
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Re: Warfare to disrupt society forthem [Re: Brian Jones]
    #27656472 - 02/12/22 02:08 PM (2 years, 3 months ago)

I've got CNN on in the background, and just heard that 'Kiev' is pronounced with one syllable. Never knew that.


--------------------
"The Rolling Stones will break up over Brian Jones' dead body"    John Lennon

I don't want no commies in my car. No Christians either.

The worst thing about corruption is that it works so well,

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InvisibleAsante
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Re: Warfare to disrupt society forthem [Re: Brian Jones]
    #27658450 - 02/14/22 10:07 AM (2 years, 3 months ago)

Like kief? :bonghit:


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OfflineBrian Jones
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Re: Warfare to disrupt society forthem [Re: Asante]
    #27659402 - 02/15/22 06:58 AM (2 years, 3 months ago)

What they're saying is that Keev is the Ukrainian pronunciation and the two syllable Kiev is the Russian one.
But now that I've been made aware of this there seems to be a certain nuance with the way they say it, that isn't exactly translatable to Americans. Kinda of the way we can't pronounce Sartre the way the French do. I can't remember what part of Eastern Europe you're from, but your take on this is probably more accurate than mine.


--------------------
"The Rolling Stones will break up over Brian Jones' dead body"    John Lennon

I don't want no commies in my car. No Christians either.

The worst thing about corruption is that it works so well,

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