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Unfolding Nature Shop: Unfolding Nature: Being in the Implicate Order

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OfflineKryptos
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Re: Warfare to disrupt society forthem [Re: Brian Jones]
    #27603186 - 01/02/22 02:00 AM (2 years, 4 months ago)

Quote:

Brian Jones said:
Quote:

Asante said:
Quote:

Psilynut2 said:
Russia isnt even capable of winning  an arms race against us .
  Their economic reality wouldn't allow it .




They dont have to, they have M.A.D




And besides their ICBM arsenal, they have over 15,000 tanks. China is second with over 9,000. The U.S. has 6,000.




Tanks are irrelevant for modern warfare.

Edit: tanks are irrelevant for modern warfare between legitimately modern militaries. Tanks are absolutely relevant when you're fighting enemies using old Soviet gear from the 60s.

Tanks are also good for keeping a few thousand welders in Ohio on welfare employed at great expense to the US taxpayer.

Edited by Kryptos (01/02/22 02:05 AM)

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OfflinePsilynut2
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Re: Warfare to disrupt society forthem [Re: Asante]
    #27603337 - 01/02/22 07:45 AM (2 years, 4 months ago)

Quote:

They dont have to, they have M.A.D




    MAD isn't really something you have , it's also something that happens to you .
  If you factor out the nukes , we have a completely dominate Air Force .
  Russia has 140, 000 people working in their air force ,  we have 700,000 , not including the air power of our Army and Navy  or NATO . Their plane numbers are pathetic compared to ours .
 
  In a conventional fight our airpower and our ability to deliver it overseas is so overwhelming we would level  Russia and China , a ground invasion wouldn't even be required . 
    Russia only has 1 serviceable aircraft carrier and 
Chinas aren't even worth mentioning , they can't return the favor .


--------------------

Edited by Psilynut2 (01/02/22 07:46 AM)

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InvisibleAsante
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Re: Warfare to disrupt society forthem [Re: Psilynut2] * 1
    #27603461 - 01/02/22 09:18 AM (2 years, 4 months ago)

The capability to mutually destroy each other with nukes is definitely something you have. Even if the whole US military stood down, North Korea doesnt have it.

Quote:

If you factor out the nukes




Do you seriously think Russia will "factor out the nukes" if the US infringes to far on them, for instance when they invade Ukraine?

They have single ICBM's with 16! MIRV warheads on them. One of those could knock out texas.

The US can play army all they like and get 10x the jets or whatnot, but fact is that that doesnt mean dick against Russia.

Bullying brown people in developing nations yes, but Putin won't feel a thing when he presses the button and over a gigaton of brute force closes in on the US from all directions at once.


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OfflineKryptos
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Re: Warfare to disrupt society forthem [Re: Asante]
    #27603632 - 01/02/22 11:11 AM (2 years, 4 months ago)

I think Asante is right to a point. A shooting war between Russia/China and the US won't devolve into a nuke fight until the end, but it will eventually end with nukes.

However, a shooting war between the two countries will mostly consist of missiles. Anti tank missiles, anti air missiles, and shipkillers. That's why I think planes, tanks, and even aircraft carriers are going to be less of an effective combat force and more target practice.

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OfflinePsilynut2
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Re: Warfare to disrupt society forthem [Re: Asante] * 1
    #27603805 - 01/02/22 01:25 PM (2 years, 4 months ago)

Quote:

Do you seriously think




I'm starting to think you may understand the concept of talking about something hypothetically , that's what I'm thinking .

   
Quote:

but Putin won't feel a thing when he presses



  Pushing that button for him means Moscow won't exist 10 mins later.  You know what MAD means right?  That button may as well be directly wired to ours.


Quote:

for instance when they invade Ukraine?



    I don't think they are going to invade , I'm not sure they can afford to , I think its all elaborate bluff to achieve something none of us really understand yet.

Edited by Psilynut2 (01/02/22 01:41 PM)

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OfflinePsilynut2
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Re: Warfare to disrupt society forthem [Re: Psilynut2]
    #27603836 - 01/02/22 01:43 PM (2 years, 4 months ago)

Quote:

However, a shooting war between the two countries will mostly consist of missiles. Anti tank missiles, anti air missiles, and shipkillers. That's why I think planes, tanks, and even aircraft carriers are going to be less of an effective combat force and more target practice.




Possibly , but,

https://www.19fortyfive.com/2021/07/why-russia-china-or-north-korea-cant-kill-the-b-2-stealth-bomber-in-a-war/


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OfflineKryptos
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Re: Warfare to disrupt society forthem [Re: Psilynut2]
    #27604095 - 01/02/22 03:58 PM (2 years, 4 months ago)

I think something that's been flying openly for nearly three decades is likely, pardon the pun, on Russian radars.

Of course due to MAD theory I don't think that a war between the three will necessarily be exhaustive. I do see Ukraine becoming a proxy war very soon, and I think that will likely spread. A war in Ukraine doesn't even have to be fought for the purposes of a win, it could be fought to drive an effective wedge into NATO, Europe, and by extension, the entire concept of liberalism. And not economic neoliberalism, but the social concept of people having the right to self-governance. This is why I think it is no accident that this is happening while Biden is in office.

From my perspective, over the last few years, Poland's nationalist party, which has taken power, has effectively placed Poland back within Russia's sphere of influence in the name of nationalism. This was achieved by rejecting the EU.

And I think it's very similar to how the US GOP has taken over the non-college educated blue collar vote, which used to be reliably democratic. Poland is, essentially, the backwater rednecks of Europe. They have poor infrastructure, relatively low education, and Polish workers are routinely imported by other countries to do relatively unskilled labor. There are many reasons for this, mostly due to the fact that Poland has been picked over by other European powers for the last 200 years.

Polish nationalism and authoritarianism comes from the attempt to stop being the butt of the joke. Just like a Trump speech: "they are laughing at us".

I don't think the point of Putin, Xi, or even Trump is to conquer the world. I think the point of all three is to make people willing to give up their liberal democratic freedoms willingly in an attempt to reclaim some imagined lost respect.

That is why the EU is so dangerous, it's a bastion of reasonably successful, ideological, liberal democracy. Same with the democratic party in the US. That's why there are so many attempts to drive division, to make democracy seem ineffective. Because in the alternative, authoritarian, worldview, the majority of the population is willing to give that up.

That's why I don't think there is much point having an argument of who would win in a shooting war. The point of the war would not be a military victory. The point of a war would be for more PATRIOT acts.

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OfflinePsilynut2
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Re: Warfare to disrupt society forthem [Re: Kryptos]
    #27604340 - 01/02/22 06:55 PM (2 years, 4 months ago)

Quote:

I think something that's been flying openly for nearly three decades is likely, pardon the pun, on Russian radars.



 
    They figured out how to pick it up along time ago . That doesn't give you  the ability to shoot it down though .
  Your right it's a pointless conversation I just like to argue I guess.


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InvisibleAsante
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Re: Warfare to disrupt society forthem [Re: Psilynut2]
    #27604387 - 01/02/22 07:41 PM (2 years, 4 months ago)

Quote:

Psilynut2 said:.

   
Quote:

but Putin won't feel a thing when he presses



  Pushing that button for him means Moscow won't exist 10 mins later.  You know what MAD means right?  That button may as well be directly wired to ours.





Yeah but, he doesn't appear to be the kind of guy who, you know, feels  :putin:


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OfflineKryptos
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Re: Warfare to disrupt society forthem [Re: Psilynut2]
    #27604449 - 01/02/22 08:44 PM (2 years, 4 months ago)

Quote:

Psilynut2 said:
Quote:

I think something that's been flying openly for nearly three decades is likely, pardon the pun, on Russian radars.



 
    They figured out how to pick it up along time ago . That doesn't give you  the ability to shoot it down though .
  Your right it's a pointless conversation I just like to argue I guess.




It almost certainly does. Missiles tend to go faster than planes, because they don't need shit like pilots and life support and microwaves and two days worth of frozen meals in a minifridge (which the B2 has, by the way, according to your article). Missiles just need an engine and a warhead.

Human technology, as a general rule, is much better at blowing shit up than at protecting shit. It's just a lot easier to blow shit up. That's kind of the whole point of a stealth plane: you can't shoot down what you can't see. If you can see it, you can shoot it down.

Especially since, as your article points out, it barely flies faster than a passenger jet. You don't even need a missile. If you can spot it, you could probably shoot that thing down with an old MiG-15 left over from the Korean war. They fly about the same speed. Just give your pilot a radio to contact ground radar, because I don't think those came standard on the old MiGs. Or like, an iPhone would work. Once they're within 23 miles, they should be able to see it no problem (also according to your article).

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OfflinePsilynut2
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Re: Warfare to disrupt society forthem [Re: Kryptos]
    #27604704 - 01/03/22 05:37 AM (2 years, 4 months ago)

Seems like an easy thing to spot in the dark from 23 miles away .


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OfflineBrian Jones
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Re: Warfare to disrupt society forthem [Re: Kryptos]
    #27604955 - 01/03/22 10:48 AM (2 years, 4 months ago)

Quote:

Kryptos said:
I think something that's been flying openly for nearly three decades is likely, pardon the pun, on Russian radars.

Of course due to MAD theory I don't think that a war between the three will necessarily be exhaustive. I do see Ukraine becoming a proxy war very soon, and I think that will likely spread. A war in Ukraine doesn't even have to be fought for the purposes of a win, it could be fought to drive an effective wedge into NATO, Europe, and by extension, the entire concept of liberalism. And not economic neoliberalism, but the social concept of people having the right to self-governance. This is why I think it is no accident that this is happening while Biden is in office.

From my perspective, over the last few years, Poland's nationalist party, which has taken power, has effectively placed Poland back within Russia's sphere of influence in the name of nationalism. This was achieved by rejecting the EU.

And I think it's very similar to how the US GOP has taken over the non-college educated blue collar vote, which used to be reliably democratic. Poland is, essentially, the backwater rednecks of Europe. They have poor infrastructure, relatively low education, and Polish workers are routinely imported by other countries to do relatively unskilled labor. There are many reasons for this, mostly due to the fact that Poland has been picked over by other European powers for the last 200 years.

Polish nationalism and authoritarianism comes from the attempt to stop being the butt of the joke. Just like a Trump speech: "they are laughing at us".

I don't think the point of Putin, Xi, or even Trump is to conquer the world. I think the point of all three is to make people willing to give up their liberal democratic freedoms willingly in an attempt to reclaim some imagined lost respect.

That is why the EU is so dangerous, it's a bastion of reasonably successful, ideological, liberal democracy. Same with the democratic party in the US. That's why there are so many attempts to drive division, to make democracy seem ineffective. Because in the alternative, authoritarian, worldview, the majority of the population is willing to give that up.

That's why I don't think there is much point having an argument of who would win in a shooting war. The point of the war would not be a military victory. The point of a war would be for more PATRIOT acts.



Quote:

Kryptos said:
I think something that's been flying openly for nearly three decades is likely, pardon the pun, on Russian radars.

Of course due to MAD theory I don't think that a war between the three will necessarily be exhaustive. I do see Ukraine becoming a proxy war very soon, and I think that will likely spread. A war in Ukraine doesn't even have to be fought for the purposes of a win, it could be fought to drive an effective wedge into NATO, Europe, and by extension, the entire concept of liberalism. And not economic neoliberalism, but the social concept of people having the right to self-governance. This is why I think it is no accident that this is happening while Biden is in office.

From my perspective, over the last few years, Poland's nationalist party, which has taken power, has effectively placed Poland back within Russia's sphere of influence in the name of nationalism. This was achieved by rejecting the EU.

And I think it's very similar to how the US GOP has taken over the non-college educated blue collar vote, which used to be reliably democratic. Poland is, essentially, the backwater rednecks of Europe. They have poor infrastructure, relatively low education, and Polish workers are routinely imported by other countries to do relatively unskilled labor. There are many reasons for this, mostly due to the fact that Poland has been picked over by other European powers for the last 200 years.

Polish nationalism and authoritarianism comes from the attempt to stop being the butt of the joke. Just like a Trump speech: "they are laughing at us".

I don't think the point of Putin, Xi, or even Trump is to conquer the world. I think the point of all three is to make people willing to give up their liberal democratic freedoms willingly in an attempt to reclaim some imagined lost respect.

That is why the EU is so dangerous, it's a bastion of reasonably successful, ideological, liberal democracy. Same with the democratic party in the US. That's why there are so many attempts to drive division, to make democracy seem ineffective. Because in the alternative, authoritarian, worldview, the majority of the population is willing to give that up.

That's why I don't think there is much point having an argument of who would win in a shooting war. The point of the war would not be a military victory. The point of a war would be for more PATRIOT acts.




I agree with much of what you said, but Poland is still in the EU and NATO. Their current political situation may be the way they're headed or it may be a temporary thing (probably can say the same thing about us/Trump).

On the obsolescence of tanks, it depends what you are trying to do. Missiles don't get you territory. If Russia invades Ukraine they will use tanks. They know it's nearly certain we will only respond with harsh words and sanctions. We wont start shooting anti-tank missiles or any other missiles.

In general I agree with your statement that the point of war is not military victory. For all practical purposes, neither the U.S. or Russia/USSR  has won a war since WWII, and at some level they weren't trying to win. But I still think Russia wants Ukraine back in the empire, and a certain number of Ukrainians want that too.


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I don't want no commies in my car. No Christians either.

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OfflinePsilynut2
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Re: Warfare to disrupt society forthem [Re: Brian Jones]
    #27605012 - 01/03/22 11:28 AM (2 years, 4 months ago)

Majority of Ukrainians don't though , especially since 2014 . Russia doesn't have much to offer economically or culturally.


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OfflineKryptos
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Re: Warfare to disrupt society forthem [Re: Brian Jones]
    #27605935 - 01/03/22 08:30 PM (2 years, 4 months ago)

I actually saw another article in the NYT earlier today, specifically talking about how the EU is potentially looking at ways to revoke funding (which both Hungary and Poland gladly take) for nations that do not follow the principles of the EU. Both Hungary and Poland can be convincingly argued to have become a one party system. Orban openly calls himself an illiberal dictator, and has since like, 2015ish.

I also don't think tanks give you territory. Infantry gives you territory. Mechanized infantry does it better, but they use APCs and infantry support vehicles. Battle tanks belong to neither category. They are breakthrough vehicles designed for heavily defended front lines, a category of warfare that has been obsolete since the development of the guided missile. At least for people that can build and afford guided missiles.

Of course, for a proxy war in which one side is heavily outgunned, a token force of tanks can still be useful as a mobile gun platform. I believe I have read somewhere than an M1 Abrahms has never been destroyed by enemy fire in combat. I wonder if an M1 Abrahms has ever been hit by something that isn't 20 years older than it in combat.

Russia absolutely wants Ukraine back in the empire, and I think it is doing so by destabilizing the country through a bit of an arms race, while funding nationalist opposition parties. I think the ultimate goal is a far right nationalist government that isolates itself from (elitist) Europe and quietly finds itself back in Putin's warm embrace. Just like Poland.

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Re: Warfare to disrupt society forthem [Re: Kryptos]
    #27606044 - 01/03/22 09:47 PM (2 years, 4 months ago)

Saudi Arabia has lost a number of M1 Abrams tanks to Yemeni rebels.

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OfflineThe Ecstatic
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Re: Outsiders like Russia extensively target Black Communities with Disinformation Warfare to disrupt society for and through... [Re: Brian Jones]
    #27606596 - 01/04/22 10:47 AM (2 years, 4 months ago)

Quote:

Brian Jones said:
Quote:

The Ecstatic said:
Quote:

nooneman said:
It'd be nice if we could find some way to make peace with russia, but they seem dead set against that.




We broke treaties to put nuclear missiles on their border, then overthrew their government and intervened in the resulting electoral processes. To this day we sanction and blockade Russia, resulting in misery for millions of Russians.

But yeah, if only they’d understand we just want peace.




I was following along with your last two posts till "We... overthrew their government". I'm not buying that at all. I'm sure we were filled with sneaky plans and contingencies. Whatever the level of support from the world community Gorbechev received, he was the engineer of the breakup of the Soviet Union, and he had strong domestic support from what I'm thinking was the middle strata of society, the educated. The old elites were obviously not with him. I think the workers started out with him. But I think he lost them. Like Putin, they long for the days of empire.




And who put Gorbachev into power?



Or maybe you think the voters decide history :lol:


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OfflineBrian Jones
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Re: Outsiders like Russia extensively target Black Communities with Disinformation Warfare to disrupt society for and through... [Re: The Ecstatic]
    #27607864 - 01/05/22 10:35 AM (2 years, 4 months ago)

I don't think we did, as a central cause. We supported perestroika and glasnost, assumably on self-serving as well as idealistic grounds. A lot of this started with Brezhnev and Andropov. Soviet communism ended primarily because enough top level Soviet communists wanted it to end. They knew it wasn't working.

I'm sure we had our fingers in the pie, but you give the U.S. way too much credit. How is it that we couldn't stop a peasant guerilla force in Southeast Asia, but we took out the USSR?


--------------------
"The Rolling Stones will break up over Brian Jones' dead body"    John Lennon

I don't want no commies in my car. No Christians either.

The worst thing about corruption is that it works so well,

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OfflineBrian Jones
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Re: Outsiders like Russia extensively target Black Communities with Disinformation Warfare to disrupt society for and through... [Re: Brian Jones]
    #27607882 - 01/05/22 10:50 AM (2 years, 4 months ago)

Quote:

Kryptos said:
I actually saw another article in the NYT earlier today, specifically talking about how the EU is potentially looking at ways to revoke funding (which both Hungary and Poland gladly take) for nations that do not follow the principles of the EU. Both Hungary and Poland can be convincingly argued to have become a one party system. Orban openly calls himself an illiberal dictator, and has since like, 2015ish.

I also don't think tanks give you territory. Infantry gives you territory. Mechanized infantry does it better, but they use APCs and infantry support vehicles. Battle tanks belong to neither category. They are breakthrough vehicles designed for heavily defended front lines, a category of warfare that has been obsolete since the development of the guided missile. At least for people that can build and afford guided missiles.

Of course, for a proxy war in which one side is heavily outgunned, a token force of tanks can still be useful as a mobile gun platform. I believe I have read somewhere than an M1 Abrahms has never been destroyed by enemy fire in combat. I wonder if an M1 Abrahms has ever been hit by something that isn't 20 years older than it in combat.

Russia absolutely wants Ukraine back in the empire, and I think it is doing so by destabilizing the country through a bit of an arms race, while funding nationalist opposition parties. I think the ultimate goal is a far right nationalist government that isolates itself from (elitist) Europe and quietly finds itself back in Putin's warm embrace. Just like Poland.




Yes, but a proxy war in which one side is heavily outgunned describes most wars. WWIII is not going to happen, except on the last day of the world. Those 24,000 tanks, requiring maintenance, must have some purpose besides parades. The American made FGM-148 is a great anti-tank missile, designed precisely to take out Russian tanks, but Ukraine doesn't have enough of them.

I do think your sociopolitical theories on Poland and Hungary are a good analysis.


--------------------
"The Rolling Stones will break up over Brian Jones' dead body"    John Lennon

I don't want no commies in my car. No Christians either.

The worst thing about corruption is that it works so well,

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OfflineKryptos
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Re: Outsiders like Russia extensively target Black Communities with Disinformation Warfare to disrupt society for and through... [Re: Brian Jones]
    #27608456 - 01/05/22 09:49 PM (2 years, 4 months ago)

Quote:

Brian Jones said:
Those 24,000 tanks, requiring maintenance, must have some purpose besides parades.




Target practice?

Keeping a few thousand Ohio tank mechanics voting for their senator? I guess that's US specific.

I really don't think that those tanks exist for any reason other than inertia. Probably economic inertia, but there might be a few generals too old for their own good. As far as I understand, armies are generally good at dealing with that. But, my first guess is it keeps people voting for the right guy as long as the defense budget increases. Military contracts are the last gasp of US manufacturing.

This is also why I think Iran's military is often underestimated. Their military, while decently small, still seems to consist entirely of missiles and various unmanned missile delivery systems. There is quite a lot to be said for precision airstrike capability that doesn't require training pilots.

Either way, I figure if a proxy war starts, Ukraine is going to end up finding a large pile of US missiles hidden somewhere. Definitely left over from Afghanistan. Definitely not freshly made, in return for some exploitative contract for Ukrainian industry.

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OfflineThe Ecstatic
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Re: Outsiders like Russia extensively target Black Communities with Disinformation Warfare to disrupt society for and through... [Re: nooneman]
    #27608844 - 01/06/22 09:10 AM (2 years, 4 months ago)

Quote:

nooneman said:
Quote:

The Ecstatic said:
Quote:

nooneman said:
It'd be nice if we could find some way to make peace with russia, but they seem dead set against that.




We broke treaties to put nuclear missiles on their border, then overthrew their government and intervened in the resulting electoral processes. To this day we sanction and blockade Russia, resulting in misery for millions of Russians.

But yeah, if only they’d understand we just want peace.



All I said was that it'd be nice if we could make peace with russia. It would be nice. And then I said they seem dead set against it. They are dead set against it. That's all I meant.

It was pretty simple: it'd be nice if we could make peace with russia, but they're dead set against it, all of which is true.




Ok great, but the implication here is that the US wants peace. We don’t.


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