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Angel_Above
Nobody



Registered: 09/25/08
Posts: 5,348
Last seen: 5 months, 21 days
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Crypto idiot please try to help me?
#27567166 - 12/03/21 03:08 AM (2 years, 1 month ago) |
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Brand new to learning about crypto game in reality. Started learning a few months ago. In the past, I had Bought ETH at 1200, panic sold at a loss when it dropped to 900. Bought LTC when it pumped to 366, got down to like 140 and I kept going toward random coins that were popular on Coinbase on Saturday nights let’s just say I lost about 70% of my initial investment. Put the rest in ETH, added a sizable portion, ETH Was and is doing well.
Fast forward to today, the same sizable portion I put additionally into chainlink and cardano because I’m a big believer in the long term projects, with link potentially being a great backbone to on and off chain data connections through CCIP.
The problem is, chainlink dropped 40%, cardano 38%, while my ETH is still pumping.
My wife is concerned because I have wayyyyy too much in crypto. I’m not asking for you to give me a roadmap to success cuz u or I have no real way of knowing how trades actually go, but going off charts on a macro scale things seem decent. With the Sundae swap DEX testnet opening on Dec 5, maybe cardano gets more of a pump but like my buddy says I should take the L of many thousands and just go for when the market shows a trend for particular coins but I’m not good at trading analysis and with no knowledge beforehand, I lost a Lot.
If you were me what would you do?
Do any of you believe in the future of link/ADA? Link is the top oracle performer with a market cap almost 44x that of what is in second place, BAND. Thanks
I really don’t want to accept the L but also am nervous because of real life issues of being over leveraged.
I have a few thousand in the bank right now. Help noob pl0x?
Edited by Angel_Above (12/03/21 03:09 AM)
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Ima Trooper
Chilldog Extraordinaire



Registered: 02/21/08
Posts: 13,533
Loc: United States
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Re: Crypto idiot please try to help me? [Re: Angel_Above]
#27567238 - 12/03/21 06:25 AM (2 years, 1 month ago) |
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You are over-leveraged and you want to put more in?
Or did I misunderstand? If you are asking whether you should leave money in or take it out, no one can answer that except you. Long-term, (5-10 years) I see crypto only going up...the ones that last, that is. Short term, it's all over the place. The truth is, there are absolutely no guarantees, nothing is a sure bet, and no one knows what will happen. We're all gambling here, essentially.
-------------------- "Its moving of its own accord...and I like that in a shirt!" - Me, tripping. deCypher said: Schizophrenia beats dining alone, you know.
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mndfreeze 
Shroomery Secret Service




Registered: 04/22/02
Posts: 20,529
Loc: PuppetMasterFlash
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Re: Crypto idiot please try to help me? [Re: Angel_Above]
#27567376 - 12/03/21 08:55 AM (2 years, 1 month ago) |
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I don't daytrade crypto like most here. I also bet on projects that look healthy and have some real world value. When I make a purchase I look at it from a minimum of a year out. Will this project still be here in a year and have some value? The nice thing about crypto right now is if you take a little time to check into the projects that have that value, almost all of them will still be here in a years time. After the year is up then you can look into if you want to continue holding or not.
You also have to look at it from a 'this money is already spent' outlook. Unless the project is crashing and burning you can usually just hold longer and it will eventually go back up. Ripple is a good example. I bought in about 2 or 3 years ago when it was at 30ish cents. Bought more during the holidays when it went crazy back then for more. It crashed bad. I almost dumped at a loss due to fear. They have since gone under litigation by the feds and can't be traded here. Even with all that bullshit its still being sold higher than I paid because the project and plan is good, has banking support, etc. I wouldn't recommend someone get into ripple NOW of course, but the same ideals hold for a lot of the good projects.
The market itself rise and falls so much just based on dumb shit like celebs tweeting or holiday spending, etc. If you are not day trading then just pick some good stuff and set your goals a year or two out, and only sell if you legit think the project is crashing and never going to recover.
I'm in ADA, chainlink, XRP and a little XLM. I mostly ditched XLM a while back, just have a little left that I got on some drop at some point.
BTC and ETH are also good for slow long term gains. We probably have a few more years of these sort of steadily rising over year periods before things stable out or they finally get replaced by something better.
It should also be noted the Holidays are always a whack time for crypto. Crypto bounces around a lot based on the current world economy and how people are spending.
-------------------- Nothing says love like grannies prolapsed anus! quote]Urb said: I know... Its fucked up... Ill fix it minyana..[/quote]
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geokills
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙


Registered: 05/08/01
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Re: Crypto idiot please try to help me? [Re: Angel_Above]
#27567547 - 12/03/21 11:49 AM (2 years, 1 month ago) |
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If you have over-exposed yourself to crypto, to the point that your wife is on your case about it and you have losses on your books that you aren't even comfortable taking... that is a big problem! What mndfreeze said about holding through the swings does generally make some sense for emerging assets such as crypto, but that only applies in scenarios where the money you have committed is money that you don't actually need, and therefore won't be causing you an emotional and/or financial burden when it doesn't offer a positive return.
Further, to indicate that you're not willing to "take the loss" is just fooling yourself. The loss has already materialized. Perhaps by sitting on it you might scratch back a bit, or on the other hand it could get cut in half again to create an even bigger loss (all while increasing your emotional stress which can in turn lead to you making more reckless or undisciplined decisions). Ultimately, these outsized losses you are taking should be a lesson to teach you that, in the future, you need to have a plan. If you have a plan for your trade, you trade that plan. IF you're going to commit to a long term allocation and ride through 50%+ drawdowns, then make that part of your plan by only committing capital that you can stomach losing. If you're going to trade a trend, you need to not only be able to identify when that trend breaks, but have the discipline to GTFO when it does, even if that means booking a loss.
Trading/investing well absolutely DOES NOT equate to every trade being a winner. I have often reflected on my losing trades as good trades, when I know that I shut them down for the right reason. Math has some important illuminations here; you can make money even if you lose money on the majority of your trades, so long as you are not allowing yourself to take big losses, while simultaneously allowing your winners to run. This isn't something that a few paragraphs can teach you either, this is something you need to strive for and learn through experience. So much about trading involves your ability to recognize your own emotional construct, and to keep it in check. Until you can do that, you should not be placing big bets (i.e. bets that make you nervous).
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If you were me what would you do?
Sell at least half of your crypto. Make an effort to identify your underperformers, and don't expect them to play catch up, as they're the ones you should be culling from your books. If you don't already, learn to buy and sell in increments, so you don't feel as much pressure to go all in/out in a single trade. When you do that, you are effectively attempting to time the market, and as anyone who has invested for any appreciable amount of time can tell you, that is a fool's errand. Generally speaking, learn to "sell the rips and buy the dips", incrementally, and only on trending assets that are moving higher over longer term time frames.
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Do any of you believe in the future of link/ADA?
I used to like ADA. Hoskinson is a smart dude, but their development pace has been painfully slow, and there are real concerns regarding how the base layer's eUTXO framework may be a headwind toward the throughput necessary to run DeFi applications that are commonplace on other "smart" chains. Further, the price action of its native currency is pretty ugly. My question to you is, why would you want to allocate to a project whose price (which is a reflection of all the collective knowledge available on the underlying asset) is trending poorly, when there are other assets with fast growing ecosystems that have much better price trends (e.g. SOL, LUNA, ETH, AVAX)?
LINK is a good product, I have nothing against it, but I'm not sure how proprietary their product will ultimately be, and I also feel that they are already richly valued. Their token price has also been all over the place, which if you like to trade volatility might be OK, but it doesn't really give me the feeling that there is a long term definable trend here. Now I'm not saying LINK and ADA won't be here for the long haul, I expect these projects are going to stick around. But when you're investing, just sticking around isn't really what you want. You want active growth, better yet, you want accelerating growth. ADA and LINK aren't presently showing those attributes. And that could change, but I prefer to trade what I see in front of me, and not what I hope might become the case.
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I really don’t want to accept the L but also am nervous because of real life issues of being over leveraged.
I will reiterate... you cannot expect to trade effectively when your emotions are already in turmoil. The most difficult thing to master in trading and investing is your own emotional construct. How can you expect to make rational decisions if you are already feeling nervous about your exposure? You can't. Period. Sell sell sell. The loss is already there, you just haven't accepted it.
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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