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TheFakeSunRa
Bitch Splitter



Registered: 03/01/05
Posts: 16,449
Loc: Dirdy SOUF
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Is the housing market a bubble?
#27497535 - 10/08/21 03:51 PM (2 years, 3 months ago) |
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Is it a permanent fixture based on simple supply and demand or are major defaults coming that will correct real estate values?
It seems a lot of economists are thinking it’s a boom and it’s just going to ride
I’ve been looking at property and it’s like goddamn
Thinking I should wait probs
I’m thinking it’s a bubble / since I still rent I’m hoping it’s a bubble
Opinions ?
-------------------- [quote]Asante said: You constantly make posts thatr fling middle school insults at people you don't like mixed in with maladjusted psychopathic comments about wanting to beat up the other poster with a crowbar. You know how shit you are, you just don't give a fuck for precisely that reason. I disendorse you.[/quote]
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Tripsurfer
Bring Back Asante!



Registered: 08/01/12
Posts: 7,129
Loc: West of Windward
Last seen: 3 months, 27 days
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Re: Is the housing market a bubble? [Re: TheFakeSunRa]
#27500915 - 10/11/21 02:38 PM (2 years, 3 months ago) |
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I hope its a bubble too
I need a bigger place and prices are insane
-------------------- Ach en wee ben ik de klos, met mijn boog schoot ik een albatros... A philosopher is a person who knows less and less about more and more, until he knows nothing about everything.

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ManianFH
living in perverty



Registered: 07/06/04
Posts: 14,741
Last seen: 15 hours, 12 minutes
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Re: Is the housing market a bubble? [Re: TheFakeSunRa]
#27501405 - 10/11/21 10:34 PM (2 years, 3 months ago) |
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no idea. since they decided to add a bunch of 0s to our debt ledger who knows what is valuable these days. Our plan was to buy the house were in but it is likely so expensive right now that we cant even afford it.
would be nice to own property right about nao heh
-------------------- notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... " ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."
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Tripsurfer
Bring Back Asante!



Registered: 08/01/12
Posts: 7,129
Loc: West of Windward
Last seen: 3 months, 27 days
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Re: Is the housing market a bubble? [Re: ManianFH]
#27501585 - 10/12/21 04:35 AM (2 years, 3 months ago) |
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I own a mortgage free appartment, so basically we are set. Its worth 2,5 times what I paid for it 8 years ago too
Doesnt do me any good at the moment though. really need some extra rooms
-------------------- Ach en wee ben ik de klos, met mijn boog schoot ik een albatros... A philosopher is a person who knows less and less about more and more, until he knows nothing about everything.

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Sugabearcrisp
Not Your Average Bear



Registered: 10/14/19
Posts: 12,047
Loc: maybe I had too much, too fast
Last seen: 15 hours, 50 minutes
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Re: Is the housing market a bubble? [Re: Tripsurfer]
#27501598 - 10/12/21 05:12 AM (2 years, 3 months ago) |
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The market is due for correction;
Purchase and sales agreements falling through when the home fails to appraise for the agreed price are becoming common in first home markets.
The stock market expects the feds to raise rates in 2023.
New home building is slowing as materials drive prices up past profitability.
If biden fails to get his spending bills passed this will accelerate the slump.
I wouldn't expect a huge drop but there should be a 10-20% drop at some point. The trick is to get locked in on a rate before they go up and have a down payment ready. That or have the down payment ready and take a higher interest loan to refi later.
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Beck180
Stranger

Registered: 10/06/19
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Re: Is the housing market a bubble? [Re: TheFakeSunRa] 2
#27505166 - 10/15/21 07:18 AM (2 years, 3 months ago) |
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Couple of things going on:
1) The economy got propped up by the government. What is starting to happen now is what usually what would happen if things hadn't been contained. The moratoriums ended this year and things are starting to move.
2)Inflation is out there. Money supply has been very high. Rates are low, but who wants to lend at 3-4% when that is a historical inflation rate? With the amount of money injected into the system, inflation is most likely above that.
3)Lots of foreclosures in the pipe. Not 2008-2010 levels, but elevated. I expect these to sell into the strength of the housing market instead of coming to the end of that legal path.
I feel like supply should start coming online (It's already starting to) in about 3-6 months. It will take some time to move everything through the system.
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badchad
Mad Scientist

Registered: 03/02/05
Posts: 13,372
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Re: Is the housing market a bubble? [Re: Beck180]
#27505461 - 10/15/21 12:14 PM (2 years, 3 months ago) |
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I think its a bubble. I purchased my home late 2019, and during a recent refinance it was ~25% higher than asking less than two years ago. Housing is a pretty inelastic commodity. People need a place to live so I think there will always be demand.
So many people are buying (and have bought) in the last couple years that I think demand will dip. Interest rates will also go up and that'll affect demand. I predict these two things will pop the bubble shortly. If you already own a home, I think the low interest rates make it a great time to buy.
-------------------- ...the whole experience is (and is as) a profound piece of knowledge. It is an indellible experience; it is forever known. I have known myself in a way I doubt I would have ever occurred except as it did. Smith, P. Bull. Menninger Clinic (1959) 23:20-27; p. 27. ...most subjects find the experience valuable, some find it frightening, and many say that is it uniquely lovely. Osmond, H. Annals, NY Acad Science (1957) 66:418-434; p.436
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Gorlax



Registered: 05/06/08
Posts: 6,695
Last seen: 15 days, 13 hours
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Re: Is the housing market a bubble? [Re: badchad]
#27513997 - 10/22/21 05:33 PM (2 years, 3 months ago) |
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No I do not think the housing market is in a bubble. The housing market got it's reset in 2008. We should see nothing but increasing home values for the foreseeable future IMO. I think now would be a good time to start making a plan to purchase some form of land/property before it becomes a dream of the past.
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geokills
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙


Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,417
Loc: city of angels
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Re: Is the housing market a bubble? [Re: Gorlax] 2
#27514113 - 10/22/21 06:40 PM (2 years, 3 months ago) |
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I tend to agree with you Gorlax (although I also agree somewhat with Beck180 regarding a pronounced bump in demand recently along with additional supply due to come online -- whether that supply will be enough to truly temper prices is another consideration that I don't have a reliable read on). There may come some minor corrections and short term market shocks due to potential pivots in interest rates, however inflation is signaling strong, and a hard asset such as a house is one of most inflation compatible investments you can make. The march higher in bitcoin further exemplifies concerns over the inflationary pressures on fiat currency. I see so many folks putting their homes up for sale around me, many of whom may be doing so because they remember what they paid for the home and the fact that it's 3, 5, or 10+ times that amount now... what I fear a lot of these folks may not be considering is the erosion of the purchasing power that the dollars they are accepting in trade have been succumbing to for the ages. Hopefully, they will reinvest that capital into assets that can maintain their value relative to purchasing power.
--------------------
-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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CapSlinger


Registered: 05/17/11
Posts: 983
Loc: Colorado rocky mountain high
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Re: Is the housing market a bubble? [Re: geokills]
#27514140 - 10/22/21 06:57 PM (2 years, 3 months ago) |
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Gorlax



Registered: 05/06/08
Posts: 6,695
Last seen: 15 days, 13 hours
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Re: Is the housing market a bubble? [Re: geokills]
#27514162 - 10/22/21 07:11 PM (2 years, 3 months ago) |
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well said. I've been tracking many of the zillows, opendoor, etc companies and they are picking up a lot of properties right now. Key things are all cash, next day, etc are enticing to the seller but there's always a reason. This person I know, his home sold next day all cash 2+ million. I was pretty surprised myself when he called me and told me that and was in a hotel room looking for a new home lol
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trees


Registered: 02/08/09
Posts: 9,194
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Re: Is the housing market a bubble? [Re: Gorlax] 1
#27515064 - 10/23/21 12:41 PM (2 years, 3 months ago) |
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I was lucky and bought my house unknowingly at the bottom of the market cycle. If you hodl your house for 5 years you get a very good tax break when u sell in the US. I think its zero % tax on the first $250k of profit if you hodl for 5 years. I wont sell until i can get that tax break, i imagine many people who bought this year wont sell for 5 years further driving up prices, so i dont forsee a major correction happening any time soon in the 2020's, prices might peak around 2025
When looking at this chart on median home prices since the 80's its pretty clear whats going on lol. Looks like a BTC cycle chart
Edited by trees (10/23/21 12:52 PM)
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Asante
Mage


Registered: 02/06/02
Posts: 86,794
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Re: Is the housing market a bubble? [Re: Tripsurfer] 1
#27515819 - 10/24/21 02:53 AM (2 years, 3 months ago) |
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Quote:
Tripsurfer said: I hope its a bubble too
I need a bigger place and prices are insane
In NL it FOR SURE is a bubble. Price hike here is ridiculous, it has nothing to do with actual property value.
-------------------- Omnicyclion.org higher knowledge starts here
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Tripsurfer
Bring Back Asante!



Registered: 08/01/12
Posts: 7,129
Loc: West of Windward
Last seen: 3 months, 27 days
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Re: Is the housing market a bubble? [Re: Asante]
#27517444 - 10/25/21 12:39 PM (2 years, 3 months ago) |
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The appartment next to my mother in law (mirror image), just got put up for sale.
Asking price is €425K for the exact same place she paid €150K for 12 years ago
-------------------- Ach en wee ben ik de klos, met mijn boog schoot ik een albatros... A philosopher is a person who knows less and less about more and more, until he knows nothing about everything.

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Gorlax



Registered: 05/06/08
Posts: 6,695
Last seen: 15 days, 13 hours
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Re: Is the housing market a bubble? [Re: Tripsurfer]
#27517467 - 10/25/21 12:54 PM (2 years, 3 months ago) |
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The supply deficit is being exacerbated by low interest rates and reports expect the under-supply to last for years. The National Association of Realtors states the US housing market is short by 5.5 million housing units.
The report shows that even if builders exceed historical averages of building 1.5 million units a year to 2.1 million units a year (2005 levels) it would take 10-years to close the 5.5 million unit gap.
Builder's can't keep up with the housing demand, and in turn this demand chases lumber supply that can't keep up either.
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Tripsurfer
Bring Back Asante!



Registered: 08/01/12
Posts: 7,129
Loc: West of Windward
Last seen: 3 months, 27 days
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Re: Is the housing market a bubble? [Re: Gorlax] 1
#27517555 - 10/25/21 02:18 PM (2 years, 3 months ago) |
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Its basically the same here
Once the boomer generation starts dying though a lot of real estate is going to market
-------------------- Ach en wee ben ik de klos, met mijn boog schoot ik een albatros... A philosopher is a person who knows less and less about more and more, until he knows nothing about everything.

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Mojo
Stranger

Registered: 07/12/07
Posts: 1,676
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Re: Is the housing market a bubble? [Re: Tripsurfer] 1
#27521243 - 10/28/21 09:28 AM (2 years, 2 months ago) |
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When I bought my property in April of 2019 I was sure that I was buying at the top of the market. I failed to act as I watched real estate appreciate in 2016, 2017, and 2018 (thinking it was a bubble!)... When I bought in 2019, it was mostly out of fear of declining affordability..
Even though my own home has appreciated far more than I could have imagined. I do not think skyrocketing cost of living is good for society as a whole. Homelessness is skyrocketing in my city along with the property and rent prices... So even though I am invested into the market, I hope its a bubble...
With unprecedented interest rates, industry failures to build starter homes, the lack of undeveloped residential zoning near big cities, and the unprecedented opportunities for investors (like the vacation rental economy)... I think the future of real estate is harder than ever to predict... We are walking into an unknown economy, and now adding inflation on top of it... I would be hesitant to believe any economist that claims to know the future of housing prices...
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badchad
Mad Scientist

Registered: 03/02/05
Posts: 13,372
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Re: Is the housing market a bubble? [Re: Mojo] 2
#27521331 - 10/28/21 10:41 AM (2 years, 2 months ago) |
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Quote:
Mojo said:
With unprecedented interest rates, industry failures to build starter homes.
I think "starter homes" are a critical aspect here. If the market keeps skyrocketing, people won't be able to enter the market into their first home which will have a ripple effect. I'm (more or less) insulated from this bubble because as home prices rise, so does my own. If you don't already own, you can't break into the market. If people can't enter the market there is no demand.
-------------------- ...the whole experience is (and is as) a profound piece of knowledge. It is an indellible experience; it is forever known. I have known myself in a way I doubt I would have ever occurred except as it did. Smith, P. Bull. Menninger Clinic (1959) 23:20-27; p. 27. ...most subjects find the experience valuable, some find it frightening, and many say that is it uniquely lovely. Osmond, H. Annals, NY Acad Science (1957) 66:418-434; p.436
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Sugabearcrisp
Not Your Average Bear



Registered: 10/14/19
Posts: 12,047
Loc: maybe I had too much, too fast
Last seen: 15 hours, 50 minutes
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Re: Is the housing market a bubble? [Re: badchad]
#27521363 - 10/28/21 11:18 AM (2 years, 2 months ago) |
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Back during the last bubble garden style aparments supplanted the starter home for folks who couldn't afford even half a multidwelling (duplex).
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Tripsurfer
Bring Back Asante!



Registered: 08/01/12
Posts: 7,129
Loc: West of Windward
Last seen: 3 months, 27 days
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Re: Is the housing market a bubble? [Re: badchad]
#27522404 - 10/29/21 03:28 AM (2 years, 2 months ago) |
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What we see here is that starters are unable to enter the market but investors aren't. They buy all available houses and rent them out
Our city has a huge expat workforce and they dont mind the extravagant rents as they usually dont pay it themselves or fall under very beneficial tax rules anyway.
My collegue is looking for his first appartment and prices increase by €10K a month
He has been looking at places and was very stoked to find something in good condition. He could just afford listing price.
I didnt have the heart to tell him he has zero chance of getting in at that price
-------------------- Ach en wee ben ik de klos, met mijn boog schoot ik een albatros... A philosopher is a person who knows less and less about more and more, until he knows nothing about everything.

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