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OfflineMoses_Davidson
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Re: Growth [Re: Moses_Davidson]
    #27373691 - 07/04/21 08:09 AM (2 years, 6 months ago)

I'd add,... if you define "person" (Average American in a given year where data is available, average global person including pre-westernized cultures that still eat mostly veg, et cetera) and define "land" (average piece of land in a specific area), and define whether we should round up not for planning vs. reporting, then estimates will converge and any two analysts will give you the same numbers.

An estimate used for production planning must contain extra to ensure that there is enough to cover required costs/demand. This is different than an estimate for novelty.

I looked at the 1/2 acre estimate (it was actually a 1.5 acre estimate). That was based on an average low-dairy diet. It takes 10 pounds of milk to produce a pound of cheese. So anyone's estimates have to nail down "are these people going to eat pizza? Are they going to be wasteful? Most food that is produced ends up going in the landfill. So it takes a lot more land to produce food for Americans in real life than what people would think if they assume average global diets and zero food waste.


--------------------
"In finance, everything that is agreeable is unsound and everything that is sound is disagreeable." --Sir Winston Churchill

"The world may not only be stranger than we suppose, it may be stranger than we can suppose."
J.B.S. Haldane

"Truth is stranger than fiction, but it is because fiction is obliged to stick to possibilities; Truth isn't."
Mark Twain


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OfflineMoses_Davidson
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Re: Growth [Re: Moses_Davidson]
    #27373716 - 07/04/21 08:39 AM (2 years, 6 months ago)

Wait wait... I just looked at some of my old notes. My "80" was based upon grazing land used to produce meat and included Texas beef data. If we throw out Texas grazing land from the data set (Texas grazing land isn't good for anything but grazing, and we should differentiate types of farmland as Sudly pointed out),... so if we just use Midwest farmland that would have otherwise been used for feed corn, then the "80" will drop down substantially.

Its still a whole lot higher than 1.5 acres though. The 1.5 is not a forecast, so it ignores dietary shifts towards westernization. It also ignores food waste, which is a reality.

So credit to Sudly for calling me on my "80" number. The BLM allows permits for about 50 cows on some 15,000 land allotments in the Southwest US, and that just has to be backed out when talking about reducing beef & dairy consumption in the future because that land will always be used for beef... unless they legalize mescaline. Then we could grow a lot of cacti on it!

So, it wouldn't do as much good as I said originally but even if you use the (very low) 1.5 number in the study Sudly referenced, that would still increase carrying capacity by a factor of 3.


--------------------
"In finance, everything that is agreeable is unsound and everything that is sound is disagreeable." --Sir Winston Churchill

"The world may not only be stranger than we suppose, it may be stranger than we can suppose."
J.B.S. Haldane

"Truth is stranger than fiction, but it is because fiction is obliged to stick to possibilities; Truth isn't."
Mark Twain


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Invisibleredgreenvines
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Re: Growth [Re: Moses_Davidson]
    #27373799 - 07/04/21 10:14 AM (2 years, 6 months ago)

still, too many people on planet.
the traffic to go anywhere is too heavy most of the time


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OfflineMoses_Davidson
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Re: Growth [Re: redgreenvines]
    #27373948 - 07/04/21 12:42 PM (2 years, 6 months ago)

Well...

We could create a virus that would attack people with psychopathy genes and render them sterile. OK never mind someone would actually take that seriously. 

Well first we should legalize all drugs that grow in the ground, issue pardons, and empty out most of the prisons, and then start cracking down on the criminals who are actually violent psychopaths and people with very antisocial societal problems. Then we can just castrate the ones who aren't really dangerous and give them free weed for life as a reward for being "on the cutting edge of societal reform."

With their balls gone, they would not be anywhere near as violent. If they are sent back again, then we can just Kvork them.

Then with their debt to society served, they (the alive ones, not the dead ones) could wear pins that say "I'm saving the earth," and "Hero."


--------------------
"In finance, everything that is agreeable is unsound and everything that is sound is disagreeable." --Sir Winston Churchill

"The world may not only be stranger than we suppose, it may be stranger than we can suppose."
J.B.S. Haldane

"Truth is stranger than fiction, but it is because fiction is obliged to stick to possibilities; Truth isn't."
Mark Twain


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InvisibleFerdinando
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Re: Growth [Re: Moses_Davidson]
    #27373954 - 07/04/21 12:48 PM (2 years, 6 months ago)

you are like absence of many people
many bad people
enjoy
love you!


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with our love with our love we could save the world


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Invisiblesudly
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Registered: 01/05/15
Posts: 10,797
Re: Growth [Re: Moses_Davidson]
    #27374035 - 07/04/21 02:18 PM (2 years, 6 months ago)

You wanna oversimplify shit and guess..

And the only link you've given is about milk productivity in Sweden.

Quote:

Highlights

â–ş It is important to consider the by-product beef in carbon footprint studies of milk. â–ş Intensification of milk per cow does not necessarily reduce the carbon footprint of milk. â–ş Emissions from land use change can drastically affect the carbon footprint of milk. â–ş It is important to report emissions from land use change separately.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0959652611004823?via%3Dihub




You could share an actual quote to make a point instead of trying to send people off to do your reading for you.

You've used the flyjo cite to make a claim that doesn't appear in the DOI. I can't find where it compares large to small farms but you apparently did so do please share.

Plus, I don't think that large efficient factories pushing out smaller factories will necessitate a reduce in supply.

Quote:

Across the US, dairy farmers have struggled beneath the weight of an industry-wide economic crisis. T​he cause ​is the massive overproduction of milk by large dairy operations, which has​ ​saturated the market, ​driving prices ​down well below the cost of production.

Proponents of mega-dairies cite efficiency and economies of scale, arguing that the model is simply the next logical step in dairying. But opponents, including Levins, say such operations do incalculable damage to the environment and rural communities, and capture bigger slices of a finite milk and cheese market – to the detriment of smaller dairies barely hanging on.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jun/01/there-are-ghosts-in-the-land-how-us-mega-dairies-are-killing-off-small-farms




Where does the 1.5 acres come from?


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I am whatever Darwin needs me to be.



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Invisiblesudly
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Re: Growth [Re: Moses_Davidson]
    #27374040 - 07/04/21 02:22 PM (2 years, 6 months ago)

Legalise and regulate drugs, free non-violent drug offenders.

You lost me at castrate and free weed.


--------------------
I am whatever Darwin needs me to be.



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OfflineMoses_Davidson
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Re: Growth [Re: sudly]
    #27374111 - 07/04/21 03:22 PM (2 years, 6 months ago)

Yeah... all analytics that involves forecasting is oversimplification and guesswork. Yep there are so many variables.

Yep.

So far as the rest... I'm kinda high right now so maybe we can talk later.

But the 1.5 that was from your analyst.


--------------------
"In finance, everything that is agreeable is unsound and everything that is sound is disagreeable." --Sir Winston Churchill

"The world may not only be stranger than we suppose, it may be stranger than we can suppose."
J.B.S. Haldane

"Truth is stranger than fiction, but it is because fiction is obliged to stick to possibilities; Truth isn't."
Mark Twain


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Invisiblesudly
Darwin's stagger

Registered: 01/05/15
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Re: Growth [Re: Moses_Davidson]
    #27374262 - 07/04/21 06:20 PM (2 years, 6 months ago)

Oversimplifying things often misses the nuances, doesn't provide context and paints the wrong picture.

I don't think straight up guessing is involved.

1.5 doesn't turn up in the link I shared. Quote or screenshot? Ffs.


--------------------
I am whatever Darwin needs me to be.



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OfflineMoses_Davidson
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Re: Growth [Re: sudly]
    #27374792 - 07/05/21 09:20 AM (2 years, 6 months ago)

I'm afraid we're not seeing eye to eye.


OK, wow that's a lot. I did a lot of work on this subject a few years ago, which was probably all rubbish, but the topic is starting to feel like work without pay. I will pick a few to answer which seem most relevant. Expect more oversimplification.

So far as losing you at castration and free weed,... the context of this thread is overpopulation and so forth. That comment I made was referencing voluntary eugenics. The preface was intended to exclude most of us from the latter.

When you do a forecast of future events in an uncontrolled system with a lot of variables, there are a few different methodologies that are popular. The linear approach tosses everything onto a graph and draws a straight line. I think its safe to say that's not how real numbers work, and that is an oversimplification by anyone's standards, but yet it seems to be the most popular. Another popular forecast model is the least squares, which is at least allows for a parabolic forecast and a regression to the mean. I'm a big fan of regression analysis... but 99% of them ignore so many real-world variables. They're all an oversimplification. You just can't build a model without it being... well... a model. I think the only way you can do it without oversimplification is to use a machine learning algorithm (such as a multivariate perceptron) so that it can analyze multiple data sets simultaneously. So the better the algo gets, the more it appears to be heuristic in nature. Id est, it guesses. That's just how forecasts work.

On oversimplification, for example, the link you provided contained, in a few paragraphs, a summation filled with so many assumptions that I don't understand how you could read it and not think it was an oversimplification. Volumes of books could be written on that topic alone, yet you were content to send that dainty little analysis with hardly enough variables to even be taken seriously. I called my own much more robust forecast an oversimplification... well yours was worse-- but that's not necessarily bad. Its like significant figures in chemistry. You really have to round things off to the lowest number of significant figures in any of your data. Anything beyond that is insignificantly precise. Admitting that isn't a fault.

I don't think one can even have a conversation about forecasting in a chat forum without guesswork and oversimplification on a such complex topic.

I'd be really interested to see someone do a more robust model. It would be exhausting. The last time I did any robust modeling was a few years ago. It took me 6 months to build. Even that involved a lot of assumptions, rendering its final output to little more value than heuristic guesswork.

Not being very savvy with what "the kids these days" are all saying in forum abbreviations, I had to look up "FFS." I'm all about discourse, with friends, but I'm not detecting that vibe. Please accept my apologies for my part in that.


Edited by Moses_Davidson (07/05/21 10:22 AM)


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Invisibleredgreenvines
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Re: Growth [Re: Moses_Davidson]
    #27374845 - 07/05/21 10:10 AM (2 years, 6 months ago)

gentle growth!
and some trimming of the bushes then.


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OfflineMoses_Davidson
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Re: Growth [Re: redgreenvines]
    #27374856 - 07/05/21 10:19 AM (2 years, 6 months ago)

What do you think of eugenics?

Since our species has few natural selection pressures in this day and age, should we prune the bush selectively to improve our gene pool? If so how?


--------------------
"In finance, everything that is agreeable is unsound and everything that is sound is disagreeable." --Sir Winston Churchill

"The world may not only be stranger than we suppose, it may be stranger than we can suppose."
J.B.S. Haldane

"Truth is stranger than fiction, but it is because fiction is obliged to stick to possibilities; Truth isn't."
Mark Twain


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Invisibleredgreenvines
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Re: Growth [Re: Moses_Davidson] * 1
    #27374894 - 07/05/21 10:52 AM (2 years, 6 months ago)

I do not think we understand genetics enough to perform eugenics.

inheritance of phenotypical features is one thing but combinatorial inheritance of genotypical alleles that are not expressed visibly may be expressed in very positive ways that are not understood:

eg, you could suppress mating of people with big ears, and lose tremendous creative results, or maybe women with endometriosis, and lose a gneration of geniuses, you never know.

diversity is best and healthiest genetically.

still we have too many allergies and that may just be environmental disruption from too much industry and too many people of all stripes.

trimming family size can be promoted by government programs. eugenics is not science, it's racism.


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Invisiblesudly
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Re: Growth [Re: Moses_Davidson]
    #27375100 - 07/05/21 01:41 PM (2 years, 6 months ago)

You come in here, make a crack pot guess, change your mind and then pat yourself on the back like you've cracked some kind of universal coeeficient.

Bravo, the chutzpah on you mate.

Bar oversimplifying, you were just wrong, and if you want to be addressed in any meaningful way then provide an example and back up your shit.

Ffs mean find factual sauces!


--------------------
I am whatever Darwin needs me to be.



Edited by sudly (07/05/21 02:07 PM)


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OfflineMoses_Davidson
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Re: Growth [Re: sudly]
    #27375415 - 07/05/21 05:53 PM (2 years, 6 months ago)

Well...

If anyone else is interested, I'd be glad to PM some of my previous work, with all of the citations & references... but I just don't think its all that interesting or worth the effort to paraphrase for public posting. 

Sudly, you actually said, "Plus, I don't think that large efficient factories pushing out smaller factories will necessitate a reduce in supply." That was such an exceptionally bad read of what I said... I just don't even think its worth replying to you any further.


--------------------
"In finance, everything that is agreeable is unsound and everything that is sound is disagreeable." --Sir Winston Churchill

"The world may not only be stranger than we suppose, it may be stranger than we can suppose."
J.B.S. Haldane

"Truth is stranger than fiction, but it is because fiction is obliged to stick to possibilities; Truth isn't."
Mark Twain


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Invisiblesudly
Darwin's stagger

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Posts: 10,797
Re: Growth [Re: Moses_Davidson]
    #27375470 - 07/05/21 06:32 PM (2 years, 6 months ago)

You want to implement environmental taxes on factory farms to increase prices and reduce demand.

Larger factories that have the capital to survive these taxes have the chance to do well after this if the smaller factories went under because they could come across a larger share of the market, especially if they buy out the competition.

One possibility is that this saturates the market with cheap meat that further reduces the price.

What I'm saying is that increasing environmental taxes on factory farms doesn't neccesiate a reduction in meat consumption.

And if it does, that you can share the quote or citation to make your point, instead you Jack yourself off and pout about how your children will be Olympians.

If you really want to break it down in to simple terms you could always just say, meat bad, vegan good, and leave it at that.


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I am whatever Darwin needs me to be.



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OfflineMoses_Davidson
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Re: Growth [Re: sudly]
    #27375560 - 07/05/21 07:25 PM (2 years, 6 months ago)

Shutting down inefficient farms, gradually over time, will directly result in a decrease of available supply. Fewer cows = more land available for veg crops.

I love tacos, pizza, and hamburgers but am trying to cut back on red meat. More of a smoked salmon & chicken kinda guy.

But I can see your point, if the price goes up a little, people will still buy pizza and won't care if they have to pay $10 or $20... they will still want it.

So what is the effective price point where people will break their love affair with eating animal protein? Hard to say. I don't know how much price increase would be enough. I'm sure someone has done a study on that.


--------------------
"In finance, everything that is agreeable is unsound and everything that is sound is disagreeable." --Sir Winston Churchill

"The world may not only be stranger than we suppose, it may be stranger than we can suppose."
J.B.S. Haldane

"Truth is stranger than fiction, but it is because fiction is obliged to stick to possibilities; Truth isn't."
Mark Twain


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Invisiblesudly
Darwin's stagger

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Posts: 10,797
Re: Growth [Re: Moses_Davidson]
    #27375708 - 07/05/21 09:37 PM (2 years, 6 months ago)

If the larger ones buy out the smaller ones that could be an issue.

And if you really wanted to save land on the fly you'd up pig and chicken farming and reduce beef production because it uses far more land. (Cruelty aside)

And that was one of the points from before, the land that is used for grazing often isn't suitable for crops.

Here's one source that suggests the effect on price a carbon tax could have is nuanced.
Quote:

Farmers produce a homogeneous product and sell into an international market. This is a perfect recipe for having zero control over the price to sell their output. This means that any additional costs incurred by farmers — from a carbon tax, for example — are difficult to pass on in the supply chain.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/theconversation.com/amp/why-agricultural-groups-fiercely-oppose-the-carbon-tax-110248




Maybe instead of trying to influence the price of meat, there could be more development in plant based meat substitutes. They're currently more expensive because they aren't as large scale and don't receive as many subsidies.

Making alternatives more viable sounds like a viable option to me, a slow process that is already taking place.

Quote:

Here's why plant-based meat is so costly:

Plant-based meat production requires less grains, water, and energy than beef burger production — traditional burger companies have to account for the input required to produce animal feed, to "take care" and slaughter cows, and to transport the livestock. But unfortunately, according to WSJ, plant-based burger production is pricier than beef, because the meatless alternatives are made on a smaller scale, while animal agriculture subsidies ensure animal products remain affordable to consumers.

At the beginning of this year, two of the world's leading meat alternative brands, Impossible and Beyond, declared official plans to lower their prices. They planned to do this by opening more manufacturing plants, and by finding new ways to optimize production. Ultimately, Impossible even promised a 15 percent price cut. 

Plant-based manufacturers such as Just Egg, a leading vegan egg company, did just that — after demand and supply increased sufficiently, prices dropped by almost half. That's why a new plant-based manufacturer is in the process of making that possible for leading vegan meat brands, with plans to help cut plant-based meat prices with increased production and utilization of the most efficient technology possible.
https://www.greenmatters.com/p/why-is-plant-based-meat-so-expensive




--------------------
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Invisibleredgreenvines
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Re: Growth [Re: sudly]
    #27375916 - 07/06/21 06:06 AM (2 years, 6 months ago)

in our family the following allergies drive us to eat beef and pork meat:
seafood allergy
fungus allergy (not me - shroomie)
sunflower seed allergy
peanut and legume allergy including all soy and all soy lecithin etc.
chicken allergy probably because chicken feed has sunflower or soy


luckily everyone here can eat oats and so much can be made from that and all the salads and cheeses we want.

we are incredibly careful with ingredients

so many products have soy or sunflower contact contamination.

we would need lab grown meat if no cows were farmed, and the lab grown beef would have to be nourished with non-sunflower, non-fungus, non-legume(incl.soy) derived nutrients.

note: since the advent of biodiesel (vs petrochemical) most glycol is coming from sunflower and soy, which usually means that contact contamination exists in products with glycols and glycerines etc. making many medicines and nearly all lotions and creams anaphylaxis dangerous.

this suggests that the purity of industrial and commercial reagents is less than 98%. so it is not going to be easy to solve all problems by stopping beef farms for us anyway.


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OfflineMoses_Davidson
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Re: Growth [Re: sudly]
    #27376523 - 07/06/21 03:28 PM (2 years, 6 months ago)

Quote:

sudly said:
Maybe instead of trying to influence the price of meat, there could be more development in plant based meat substitutes. They're currently more expensive because they aren't as large scale and don't receive as many subsidies.

Making alternatives more viable sounds like a viable option to me, a slow process that is already taking place.





That could work quite well. If the plant based meat substitutes were cheaper and tasted good, it would outsell regular meat.

The Impossible Whopper at Burger King is excellent, but costs more than the regular Whopper. The patents for that should run out and then anyone can use their additive that makes it taste like real meat.

I think another thing that would help is breaking free of petroleum-based fertilizer and moving to cleaner fuels that are renewable, like ethyl alcohol (which produces water vapor and pure carbon dioxide when burnt).

Another would be to encourage a decentralized electrical grid, where individual home owners and businesses are encouraged to put up solar panels to offset their own power consumption. En masse, this on-site application could be (if done at a large enough scale) drastically cheaper than Biden's plan to beef up the grid and put up huge power facilities and then pipe the power through miles and miles of lines where it would be dissipated as heat loss.

Another would be to do more to encourage homeowners and businesses to insulate and be less wasteful. People like to focus on cars but some energy experts say that the biggest opportunity to minimize energy consumption and carbon emissions is in homes. Its always better to plug a leaky bucket when you are trying to transport water, or so they say.


--------------------
"In finance, everything that is agreeable is unsound and everything that is sound is disagreeable." --Sir Winston Churchill

"The world may not only be stranger than we suppose, it may be stranger than we can suppose."
J.B.S. Haldane

"Truth is stranger than fiction, but it is because fiction is obliged to stick to possibilities; Truth isn't."
Mark Twain


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