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FrankAgora
Wanderer



Registered: 05/27/21
Posts: 27
Loc: Florida
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Dump your Dollars: Inflation Incoming 1
#27341047 - 06/09/21 02:59 AM (2 years, 7 months ago) |
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Long story short: every dollar you have in June 2021 will be worth less than 75 cents in June 2022, so buy anything right now that isn't going to lose value just for sitting still.
Inflation is going to be very bad this year in the US. The Federal Reserve itself has admitted it expects 5-15% inflation on most market goods this year. Besides the noticeable shortages of goods like chicken, gas, lumber, etc, there is something else going on in the economy that will make it harder for you to get what your family needs. The Fed has created so much new money over the past year (well, really since 1913 when the creature was born on Jekyll Island) that all of the money before 2020 has diminished in value already. Allegedly over 20% of all US dollars were printed last year. Roughly speaking this means any 2019 dollars you were saving turned into 80 cents effectively. The effect is not immediate, but it is certain. If you ask me, the Fed is an organization of corrupt political motive that has counterfeited trillions of dollars to serve foul private interests while operating under the guise of a public institution. If you doubt this, ask your local free-market economist. Or grab yourself a copy of anything by Murray Rothbard. Or tune in to Ron Paul for five minutes. Or join the Mises Caucus of the Libertarian Party. But just because somebody is stealing your money doesn't mean you have to sit there and take it on the chin.
Don't panic. That will cloud your judgment when you need to be shrewd. A recession worse than 2008 will be coming home soon. If you have any savings in dollars, get literally anything else. Gold, silver are global standards for safe savings. Stocks and bonds and all the forms of investment therein can be cool, but if the economy tanks you will be sitting on investments for years before you might see a return on what you put in, you'd be lucky to break even over the next 5 years. Crypto is a super useful tool, but a risky and volatile market unless you have your research in order and the governments around the globe are getting stricter with regulation.
The best investments are the ones that give you leverage on producing valuable things in the future. Invest in yourself, you are your most valuable asset. Learn something, that online course that's $100 now will be $150 next year. Build something, those raised garden beds your girlfriend keeps bugging you to make that runs $200 this year will be $300 next but the fruits will be just as sweet. Own something, get that PC or dehydrator now before the prices are jacked up when the recession hits. Create something, there is a niche you can serve locally or remotely, a brand waiting for you to form it that can reap benefits for years if only you took the time to invest in its invention. Invest in somebody you know who has a vision. For example, food trucks are cheaper than ever since so many went out of business during lockdowns, so if you know somebody who has what it takes, now could be the best time to invest in the dreams of your friends and family. Give something, $30 can feed a family in South America for a month, or it could buy you dinner for 2 at McDonald's next year, what do you think is the right thing to do with your money? Whatever you do, don't waste your resources by letting the Fed hand your purchasing power to somebody else. Saving your money in dollars is a financially irresponsible move these days. Keeping 3 months of expenses in cash somewhere is reasonable, but if you have anything more than that get it into something legitimate as soon as possible.
Heck if it costs $10 now for a spore syringe, it will be $15 in a year so even just sitting on something that isn't dollars will earn you dollars in time. Let alone if you invest in the knowledge and capability to produce spores in the future. Learn while it's cheap and earn while prices are high, this is financial stability.
Really though, give that sh*t away. You could gain the world but for the price of your soul. Better to be hungry, homeless, but happy in your own skin, than so comfortable that you forget your heart and let it rot away while you chase selfish ends with your insatiable appetite for pleasure.
-------------------- Though your heart lays restless, Love itself will still your soul.
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greenladel

Registered: 05/27/20
Posts: 636
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Re: Dump your Dollars: Inflation Incoming [Re: FrankAgora] 2
#27341059 - 06/09/21 03:24 AM (2 years, 7 months ago) |
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money is only worth the value we give it. scare tactics like this are for the benefit of the ruling class. food comes from the ground and water comes from the sky. money is worthless.
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Ahab McBathsalts
OTD Windmill Administrator




Registered: 11/25/02
Posts: 35,107
Loc: Wind Turbine, AB
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Re: Dump your Dollars: Inflation Incoming [Re: FrankAgora] 2
#27341069 - 06/09/21 03:39 AM (2 years, 7 months ago) |
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The 10 year bond is at like 1.5%, and the 2 year is at 0.151%
The $15 Trillion dollar bond market believes inflation will average 1.5% over the next 10 years. Some rando that has been watching too much Fox news believes it will be 5-15%. Who do you think will be right? All this dog whistling about inflation is a GOP tactic to reduce tax increases and spending to public programs. You bought the hype boy.
Further you can buy rate futures for bonds, out 30 days, 60, 90, whatever and you can look at what the prices and rates of inflation are expected for the future from these.
Although it would be easy to make the case that the fed's quantitative easing is distorting bond markets by at least 1-2%.
-------------------- "Nobody exists on purpose. Nobody belongs anywhere. Everybody's going to die."
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tomnl
Beginner



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-------------------- Been away so long I hardly knew the place Gee, it's good to be back home Leave it till tomorrow to unpack my case Honey disconnect the phone I'm back in the USSA You don't know how lucky you are, boy Back in the US Back in the US Back in the USSA
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Brian Jones
Club 27



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Re: Dump your Dollars: Inflation Incoming [Re: FrankAgora]
#27342651 - 06/10/21 08:06 AM (2 years, 7 months ago) |
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Inflation will increase but not that much. It's being projected more for 2023 than next year.
And I am not giving up five minutes of my life that I can never get back to listen to Ron Paul.
-------------------- "The Rolling Stones will break up over Brian Jones' dead body" John Lennon I don't want no commies in my car. No Christians either. The worst thing about corruption is that it works so well,
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Hikeadellic
Fungi Fan



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Re: Dump your Dollars: Inflation Incoming [Re: Brian Jones]
#27344271 - 06/11/21 10:47 AM (2 years, 7 months ago) |
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The price of wood basically tripled in the past year
Look at the price of raw materials (concrete steel ect) and the value of the publicly traded company's that produce them.
The woods not getting any better, the dollar is getting cheaper and the supply chain is getting fucked
The money printer is on full blast
You have guys like JPOW whos job is to make sure everyone stays calm about money say "guys its not that bad, it will be ok, just trust me"
Yeah right
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yeah


Registered: 02/08/09
Posts: 3,729
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Re: Dump your Dollars: Inflation Incoming [Re: Hikeadellic]
#27344595 - 06/11/21 03:56 PM (2 years, 7 months ago) |
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--------------------
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Loaded Shaman
Psychophysiologist



Registered: 03/02/15
Posts: 8,006
Loc: Now O'Clock
Last seen: 27 days, 18 hours
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Quote:
Ahab McBathsalts said: The 10 year bond is at like 1.5%, and the 2 year is at 0.151%
The $15 Trillion dollar bond market believes inflation will average 1.5% over the next 10 years. Some rando that has been watching too much Fox news believes it will be 5-15%. Who do you think will be right? All this dog whistling about inflation is a GOP tactic to reduce tax increases and spending to public programs. You bought the hype boy.
Further you can buy rate futures for bonds, out 30 days, 60, 90, whatever and you can look at what the prices and rates of inflation are expected for the future from these.
Although it would be easy to make the case that the fed's quantitative easing is distorting bond markets by at least 1-2%.
This is honestly my impression as well. Reddit is freaking the fuck out about inflation on all the finance subs. Good post, dude.
--------------------
  "Real knowledge is to know the extent of one’s ignorance." — Confucius
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Brian Jones
Club 27



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Re: Dump your Dollars: Inflation Incoming [Re: Loaded Shaman]
#27358598 - 06/22/21 08:49 AM (2 years, 7 months ago) |
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Quote:
Hikeadellic said: The price of wood basically tripled in the past year
Look at the price of raw materials (concrete steel ect) and the value of the publicly traded company's that produce them.
The woods not getting any better, the dollar is getting cheaper and the supply chain is getting fucked
The money printer is on full blast
You have guys like JPOW whos job is to make sure everyone stays calm about money say "guys its not that bad, it will be ok, just trust me"
Yeah right
https://www.seattletimes.com/business/as-lumber-prices-fall-the-threat-of-inflation-loses-its-bite/ I would be most pleased to be hearing this about gasoline.
-------------------- "The Rolling Stones will break up over Brian Jones' dead body" John Lennon I don't want no commies in my car. No Christians either. The worst thing about corruption is that it works so well,
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Asante
Mage


Registered: 02/06/02
Posts: 86,794
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Quote:
Ahab McBathsalts said: inflation will average 1.5% over the next 10 years.
thats as rich as philip morris saying smjoking doeshnt cause lung disease while all their experts knew it did.
There is no way US inflation is going to average 1.5% over the coming decade.
-------------------- Omnicyclion.org higher knowledge starts here
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LeafRaker
nomad



Registered: 11/28/11
Posts: 718
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Re: Dump your Dollars: Inflation Incoming [Re: Asante]
#27362602 - 06/25/21 11:01 AM (2 years, 7 months ago) |
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If you're really expecting inflation, expand your balance sheet as much as possible by growing a negative position in dollar financing. I.E. get as deeply into (fixed-rate, low cost) debt as you possibly can and use that to buy hard assets, especially primo land.
-------------------- Knowledge is finite, ignorance is infinite.
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Hikeadellic
Fungi Fan



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Re: Dump your Dollars: Inflation Incoming [Re: LeafRaker]
#27364141 - 06/26/21 01:02 PM (2 years, 6 months ago) |
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I was thinking the same thing!
Just gotta find a good rate on a loan
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Loaded Shaman
Psychophysiologist



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Re: Dump your Dollars: Inflation Incoming [Re: Hikeadellic] 1
#27373420 - 07/03/21 11:58 PM (2 years, 6 months ago) |
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If you've been investing and diversifying with any modicum of consistency before the pandemic, simply keep doing what you're doing.
It's people that haven't ever invested/were forced to learn how money and inflation works whom are reacting to a short bust-boom cycle that usually takes years, happening in a short period, that are chicken littles here.
You see it with people just getting into shape becoming neurotic about supplements, etc. They have a tenuous grasp of diet and nutrition to begin with, and that's the proof marker.
Experience is the ultimate, most impartial teacher (as the market should be, TBH).
--------------------
  "Real knowledge is to know the extent of one’s ignorance." — Confucius
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Moses_Davidson
Non-Prophet



Registered: 05/21/20
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Re: Dump your Dollars: Inflation Incoming [Re: Loaded Shaman]
#27375112 - 07/05/21 01:51 PM (2 years, 6 months ago) |
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For a very Democrat view of inflation, perhaps Warren Buffett and George Soros know more than the rest of us. Both big democrats.
Buffett has been bracing for inflation since "Helicopter" Ben Bernanke started enabling our government with giant bail-outs. Buffett bought rail because he believes gas prices are rising, and shipping costs via freight will be cost prohibitive making rail a more affordable shipping choice.
Likewise, George Soros, an ardent billionaire supporter of Biden, has written a book called "The Alchemy of Finance." Soros says that its the Federal Reserve buying the bonds, artificially propping up the bond market to maintain the guise of low inflation. In that book, he basically says that the dollar is going to crash. He says that ignorant people create a dissonance from reality, believing that the house of cards is strong, and the further their denial of the situation, the greater the reflexive snap-back to reality when the poop hits the fan. He was somewhat more eloquent. Soros' portfolio is almost entirely composed of stocks designed to profit from a falling dollar.
If you look at www.USdebtclock.org you can see, in the lower right, the total US unfunded liabilities. That's the total amount that we have to pay including all debts, leases, and other sneaky obligations. Its just over 150 trillion as I am typing this. So if we had (in 2018) 144.3 million taxpayers reported earning $11.6 trillion in adjusted gross income and paid $1.5 trillion in individual income taxes... that's an obligation-to-income ratio of 100:1 for each taxpayer. That's like a person with an income of $100k owing a total of $10 million in child support, credit cards, mortgages, car payments, alimony, and back-owed taxes. I'd say that guy has screwed the pooch.
Inflation? Yes, I agree with George Soros and Warren Buffett.
-------------------- "In finance, everything that is agreeable is unsound and everything that is sound is disagreeable." --Sir Winston Churchill "The world may not only be stranger than we suppose, it may be stranger than we can suppose." J.B.S. Haldane "Truth is stranger than fiction, but it is because fiction is obliged to stick to possibilities; Truth isn't." Mark Twain
Edited by Moses_Davidson (07/05/21 02:04 PM)
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Moses_Davidson
Non-Prophet



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Re: Dump your Dollars: Inflation Incoming [Re: LeafRaker]
#27375124 - 07/05/21 02:00 PM (2 years, 6 months ago) |
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Quote:
LeafRaker said: If you're really expecting inflation, expand your balance sheet as much as possible by growing a negative position in dollar financing. I.E. get as deeply into (fixed-rate, low cost) debt as you possibly can and use that to buy hard assets, especially primo land.
Yes, also look at what happened in Brazil, Argentina, the Weimar Republic, England in the "Winter of Discontent", and the Roman Empire during their times of inflation. Commodities always do well. History repeats itself.
Interactive Brokers is really popular with hedge fund managers. 6x leverage during market hours, 3x overnight.
It's very difficult to forecast any amount of inflation with any degree of certainty... anyone who says otherwise is naive, but I think its safe to say that a degree of inflation is coming, and its prudent to adjust portfolios accordingly.
-------------------- "In finance, everything that is agreeable is unsound and everything that is sound is disagreeable." --Sir Winston Churchill "The world may not only be stranger than we suppose, it may be stranger than we can suppose." J.B.S. Haldane "Truth is stranger than fiction, but it is because fiction is obliged to stick to possibilities; Truth isn't." Mark Twain
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Moses_Davidson
Non-Prophet



Registered: 05/21/20
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Re: Dump your Dollars: Inflation Incoming [Re: Moses_Davidson]
#27375354 - 07/05/21 05:09 PM (2 years, 6 months ago) |
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I'd also add that the term "inflation" needs to be defined. The definition that they used in the 1970's when they said inflation was bad was changed in today's definition. The new "Core Inflation" definition of inflation conveniently leaves out most of the things increase in price the most during times of inflation: gas, electricity, oil, food & groceries, housing,... pretty much the only stuff they leave in is stuff that is now made in China to be cheaper, like clothing. Also computers, cars, and houses are "adjusted" (watered down) because the new ones are (sic) better so they can't be compared apples to apples to the old ones. If a new computer is twice as powerful as an old one, then the price needs to be adjusted accordingly.
So, if by "inflation" you mean that the cost of t-shirts (made in China by slave labor) and outdated computers and used cars are not going to go up in value much, then hey you've got nothing to worry about. Ignore the man behind the curtain.
But if you are concerned about the price of gas, electricity, the price of food, the price of housing, the cost to buy a new car,... well... that's different. Those things are just "volatile" so we sweep that under the rug. But hey, enjoy all those cheap used computers and used cars, and other plastic stuff made in China. Its only expected to go up in value a little!
Now back to your show
-------------------- "In finance, everything that is agreeable is unsound and everything that is sound is disagreeable." --Sir Winston Churchill "The world may not only be stranger than we suppose, it may be stranger than we can suppose." J.B.S. Haldane "Truth is stranger than fiction, but it is because fiction is obliged to stick to possibilities; Truth isn't." Mark Twain
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qman
Stranger

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Re: Dump your Dollars: Inflation Incoming [Re: Moses_Davidson]
#27375595 - 07/05/21 07:47 PM (2 years, 6 months ago) |
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Quote:
Moses_Davidson said:
Quote:
LeafRaker said: If you're really expecting inflation, expand your balance sheet as much as possible by growing a negative position in dollar financing. I.E. get as deeply into (fixed-rate, low cost) debt as you possibly can and use that to buy hard assets, especially primo land.
Yes, also look at what happened in Brazil, Argentina, the Weimar Republic, England in the "Winter of Discontent", and the Roman Empire during their times of inflation. Commodities always do well. History repeats itself.
Interactive Brokers is really popular with hedge fund managers. 6x leverage during market hours, 3x overnight.
It's very difficult to forecast any amount of inflation with any degree of certainty... anyone who says otherwise is naive, but I think its safe to say that a degree of inflation is coming, and its prudent to adjust portfolios accordingly.
The global bond markets disagree with this inflationary thesis being spewed out by the MSM and other fear mongers. For inflation to materialize, credit growth must not be dead in the water like it has been the past 10 years, wages must move higher, debts must be erased and the velocity of money can't be at a 60 year low. None of those factors are likely to change and all of this government 'stimulus' isn't amounting to much of anything.
We can't have growing demand of resources, if we did the entire system would collapse. We must live with near 0% interest rates in the minds of the very wealthy and that's what continues to happen year after year now. If you think inflation is coming, buy puts on the 30 year bond and get rich when yields move from 2% to 8% or higher.
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MushBrain1
Poppin Fresh Pillsbury Doughboy

Registered: 07/05/21
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Re: Dump your Dollars: Inflation Incoming [Re: qman]
#27375653 - 07/05/21 08:33 PM (2 years, 6 months ago) |
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Gold Coins and Junk Silver buy today sell tomorrow spread is > 30%. Gold and Silver ETF's are taxed just like coins! There is NO metal, it is a scan! 500X more fake Silver in ETF's than physical Silver existing! If you buy metals, possess them!
Do not be a fool if you need that money, those fees will eat you alive! Buy some solid stocks and do not sell when the market tanks. You MUST HAVE CASH to buy back in when the over-correction adjusts.
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Brian Jones
Club 27



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Re: Dump your Dollars: Inflation Incoming [Re: FrankAgora]
#27376268 - 07/06/21 11:37 AM (2 years, 6 months ago) |
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We're probably looking at 3.5% inflation, not a doom and gloom scenario.
-------------------- "The Rolling Stones will break up over Brian Jones' dead body" John Lennon I don't want no commies in my car. No Christians either. The worst thing about corruption is that it works so well,
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ManianFH
living in perverty



Registered: 07/06/04
Posts: 14,741
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Re: Dump your Dollars: Inflation Incoming [Re: Brian Jones]
#27376428 - 07/06/21 02:04 PM (2 years, 6 months ago) |
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Does that mean to negotiate a higher wage at your job interview in anticipation of your salary being 3.5% less powerful?
-------------------- notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... " ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."
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Moses_Davidson
Non-Prophet



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Re: Dump your Dollars: Inflation Incoming [Re: MushBrain1]
#27376563 - 07/06/21 03:56 PM (2 years, 6 months ago) |
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Quote:
qman said: If you think inflation is coming, buy puts on the 30 year bond and get rich when yields move from 2% to 8% or higher.
I agree with that, you're obviously correct, but let me change what I said to be more specific: I don't expect Core inflation to rise. I expect the "old kind of inflation" to rise. There is a big difference. Also, bond market isn't going to drive up yields up as long as the Fed keeps buying the bonds. That will keep Core inflation low.
Quote:
MushBrain1 said: 500X more fake Silver in ETF's than physical Silver existing!
Nobody is going to understand what you just said. You're correct, but it makes me sick that despite the fact that the CME is short more silver than even exists above ground, all they have to do is hike up the margin requirements whenever it starts going up and it comes right back down. Ugh. There is so much market manipulation out there it is MIND BLOWING. I think the average investor has no idea. But you're right, it should go up like crazy... except that it won't. Too much manipulation. That's why I don't even buy silver anymore. But I think if you're going to diversify, its a good idea to have some metals. Maybe safer to invest in less popular metals that don't get so much CME attention.
-------------------- "In finance, everything that is agreeable is unsound and everything that is sound is disagreeable." --Sir Winston Churchill "The world may not only be stranger than we suppose, it may be stranger than we can suppose." J.B.S. Haldane "Truth is stranger than fiction, but it is because fiction is obliged to stick to possibilities; Truth isn't." Mark Twain
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Moses_Davidson
Non-Prophet



Registered: 05/21/20
Posts: 613
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Re: Dump your Dollars: Inflation Incoming [Re: ManianFH]
#27376579 - 07/06/21 04:07 PM (2 years, 6 months ago) |
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Quote:
ManianFH said: Does that mean to negotiate a higher wage at your job interview in anticipation of your salary being 3.5% less powerful?
Well, we're all debating about how much less powerful. Some here of great faith what they are told on TV are saying 1.5 - 2% less powerful. The OP is saying, what I can't remember, 20% less powerful. I'm too old and experienced to predict any numbers other than to say "get ready for change." Its so hard to say. It depends on what you are planning to buy. Commodities are going to go way up... fuel, electricity, food, housing, those things are going to go up. Government bond yields? Nope. I don't think they can go up. Those will stay cheap since the Fed is buying them.
But if you are negotiating at your job interview, then screw what I said and the other posters in here said, go with what the OP said and tell your HR manager that YOUR cost of living "has already gone up" because of rising costs in electricity, gasoline, natural gas, automobile prices, food, and lumber. Be sure to mention lumber. Before you go do your negotiation, apply for about 30 other jobs online, and go to some interviews. Get some info about competitive wages from other employers. Then tell your employer that you want to stay there, but you just want them to pay you "a fair amount that you are worth to other employers." I had to give people wage increases because of this.
-------------------- "In finance, everything that is agreeable is unsound and everything that is sound is disagreeable." --Sir Winston Churchill "The world may not only be stranger than we suppose, it may be stranger than we can suppose." J.B.S. Haldane "Truth is stranger than fiction, but it is because fiction is obliged to stick to possibilities; Truth isn't." Mark Twain
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Hikeadellic
Fungi Fan



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Re: Dump your Dollars: Inflation Incoming [Re: Moses_Davidson]
#27377483 - 07/07/21 11:03 AM (2 years, 6 months ago) |
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$8 for a glass of beer is pretty doom and gloom for me
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Brian Jones
Club 27



Registered: 12/18/12
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Re: Dump your Dollars: Inflation Incoming [Re: ManianFH]
#27377494 - 07/07/21 11:14 AM (2 years, 6 months ago) |
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I get half pitchers for $3.50 If I could stand some putrid swill like PBR it would be 2.50. I'm the only one in the bar who's allowed to buy half pitchers. If they think there may be a cop in the house, they give me two glasses and I pour a little intoQuote:
ManianFH said: Does that mean to negotiate a higher wage at your job interview in anticipation of your salary being 3.5% less powerful?
Right now you can probably do quite a bit better than that. Nice raises have been prevalent lately. Employers are competing for workers.
-------------------- "The Rolling Stones will break up over Brian Jones' dead body" John Lennon I don't want no commies in my car. No Christians either. The worst thing about corruption is that it works so well,
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qman
Stranger

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Re: Dump your Dollars: Inflation Incoming [Re: Moses_Davidson]
#27377527 - 07/07/21 11:42 AM (2 years, 6 months ago) |
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Quote:
Moses_Davidson said:
Quote:
qman said: If you think inflation is coming, buy puts on the 30 year bond and get rich when yields move from 2% to 8% or higher.
I agree with that, you're obviously correct, but let me change what I said to be more specific: I don't expect Core inflation to rise. I expect the "old kind of inflation" to rise. There is a big difference. Also, bond market isn't going to drive up yields up as long as the Fed keeps buying the bonds. That will keep Core inflation low.
The Fed doesn't not control interest rates on the bonds, in fact the Fed only owns $5 trillion of a $21 trillion Treasury bond market. Nobody is stopping the other $16 trillion worth of bondholders from selling on the open market. That doesn't also include the tens of trillions of corporate, state and municipal debt that freely trades everyday at very low rates.
Higher health care, rent, home prices, educational costs and other other expenses for the working class isn't demand based inflation, it's market controlled higher costs. The only inflation that Big Money cares about is wages and commodities, both of sectors have remained extremely depressed since 2007.
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Moses_Davidson
Non-Prophet



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Re: Dump your Dollars: Inflation Incoming [Re: qman]
#27377929 - 07/07/21 04:49 PM (2 years, 6 months ago) |
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Quote:
qman said: ...in fact the Fed only owns $5 trillion of a $21 trillion Treasury bond market. Nobody is stopping the other $16 trillion worth of bondholders from selling on the open market. That doesn't also include the tens of trillions of corporate, state and municipal debt that freely trades everyday at very low rates.
5/21 is 23% of the whole Treasuries market... which is a substantial control position.
The SEC says that anyone with 4.99% control of a given market is legally obligated to file disclosures because they are a control person and can single-handedly control the market. Anyone with 10% of a given market is an "insider" and is regulated with the same level of horrid paperwork just the same as if they were the CEO of the issuer. If one group has 23% of a market, that is lock-stock-& barrel control.
US Treasuries are THE benchmark for all other bond markets. If the Fed quit (quantitative easing) buying bonds (like fiscal responsibility of the old days), that would be 23% of the buying pressure gone. Demand for the T-bill would be where the market let go (that would be the real market, not the artificial quantitative easing "lets bid on our own auction" bond market), and the T-bill would be at 10%+.
There's an interesting old textbook that talks about how the Fed represses the visible signs of inflation. I highly recommend it for anyone who is interested in the subject. "The Economics of Repressed Inflation" Many of the authors who are quoted in the book ended up to go on and become chairs of the Fed, so may be a real eye opener for you. Best wishes to you.
-------------------- "In finance, everything that is agreeable is unsound and everything that is sound is disagreeable." --Sir Winston Churchill "The world may not only be stranger than we suppose, it may be stranger than we can suppose." J.B.S. Haldane "Truth is stranger than fiction, but it is because fiction is obliged to stick to possibilities; Truth isn't." Mark Twain
Edited by Moses_Davidson (07/07/21 06:37 PM)
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ManianFH
living in perverty



Registered: 07/06/04
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Re: Dump your Dollars: Inflation Incoming [Re: Brian Jones]
#27378076 - 07/07/21 06:36 PM (2 years, 6 months ago) |
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Quote:
Moses_Davidson said:
Quote:
ManianFH said: Does that mean to negotiate a higher wage at your job interview in anticipation of your salary being 3.5% less powerful?
Well, we're all debating about how much less powerful. Some here of great faith what they are told on TV are saying 1.5 - 2% less powerful. The OP is saying, what I can't remember, 20% less powerful. I'm too old and experienced to predict any numbers other than to say "get ready for change." Its so hard to say. It depends on what you are planning to buy. Commodities are going to go way up... fuel, electricity, food, housing, those things are going to go up. Government bond yields? Nope. I don't think they can go up. Those will stay cheap since the Fed is buying them.
But if you are negotiating at your job interview, then screw what I said and the other posters in here said, go with what the OP said and tell your HR manager that YOUR cost of living "has already gone up" because of rising costs in electricity, gasoline, natural gas, automobile prices, food, and lumber. Be sure to mention lumber. Before you go do your negotiation, apply for about 30 other jobs online, and go to some interviews. Get some info about competitive wages from other employers. Then tell your employer that you want to stay there, but you just want them to pay you "a fair amount that you are worth to other employers." I had to give people wage increases because of this.
Quote:
Brian Jones said:
Right now you can probably do quite a bit better than that. Nice raises have been prevalent lately. Employers are competing for workers.
Noted. Thanks for the responses.
-------------------- notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... " ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."
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Loaded Shaman
Psychophysiologist



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Re: Dump your Dollars: Inflation Incoming [Re: Brian Jones]
#27378449 - 07/08/21 12:01 AM (2 years, 6 months ago) |
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Quote:
Brian Jones said: We're probably looking at 3.5% inflation, not a doom and gloom scenario.
Wait, so you're telling me like usual, extremists on both sides miss the reality of the situation?!
I agree.
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  "Real knowledge is to know the extent of one’s ignorance." — Confucius
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Moses_Davidson
Non-Prophet



Registered: 05/21/20
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Re: Dump your Dollars: Inflation Incoming [Re: Loaded Shaman]
#27379686 - 07/08/21 07:15 PM (2 years, 6 months ago) |
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Quote:
Loaded Shaman said:
Quote:
Brian Jones said: We're probably looking at 3.5% inflation, not a doom and gloom scenario.
Wait, so you're telling me like usual, extremists on both sides miss the reality of the situation?!
I agree.
I agree with that, to an extent,... because the dollar is backed by the US government and some sort of gold that the government says it holds, and is backed by the income of its tax base: "the full faith and credit of the US government." If the dollar were to crash as far as it could fall, the dollar-price of gold would rise, and at some point the price of the dollar would fall until the value of its underlying assets (gold plus full faith and credit of the US gov't) is at parity with the M3 money supply. At that point, the dollar can't really fall any further. So, the US dollar mathematically cannot become worthless. It can only fall so far. I calculated that out during the Obama era and with the M3 at that time, the mathematical worst case scenario possible was a 50 - 65% drop in value. So whenever I hear people say that its going to be like Zimbabwe's hyperinflation... no. I don't think we are headed for that either. I don't think that is mathematically possible. So I reject that extreme view.
Likewise I think its extreme to believe the tenets of the "Core Inflation" faith taught by the foxes that guard the henhouse of inflation. I do not think that the average American consumer can disregard the prices of food, gasoline, electricity, natural gas, housing, automobiles, jet fuel, and metals. I think these should be considered when we calculate the cost of living, and when we try to critically determine the purchasing power of the dollar.
Nial Ferguson is a Harvard history professor who is one of the foremost experts in the world on economic history. He has been issuing some stern warnings about what happens to nations that cross certain numerical ratios, and I find that his arguments seem to make a lot of sense.
However, I think the reason the US has passed the critical mass ratios of Ferguson and is still afloat because of so many clever things that our Federal Reserve is doing to keep the ship afloat. For one, the Breton Woods accord requires most foreign banks to use USD as their reserve currency... for two, the US dollar dominates international oil transactions, for three, "dishoarding" and other clever policies practiced by the Fed, and for four, the way they implemented quantitative easing by buying bonds was brilliant. I could go on and on, they are doing so many brilliant things to strengthen the dollar. It is as if the US is the titan economy that is unsinkable.
I think if our paradigm causes us to refer to the forecast of historians and billionaires as "extremists" then we might want to be a little more open minded.
If 2% inflation is one extreme and 50-65% is another extreme, or even if we say the high end of it is 25-32.5%... then I'm not sure if I'd ignore food/gas/electicity/housing/cars and call 3.5% inflation "moderate". I think its a little higher than that. How much? I don't know. I don't think anyone can really say with much certainty.
And what of the doom & gloom prophets? I've probably read a dozen or so of their books. Yes, history repeats itself, but we are defying the Ferguson ratios and Japan is walking on water too (more than we are). So, I don't think we can pick a point and say "Now is when its going to fall apart." Likewise, I don't think we can dismiss them as wackos either.
I think it is prudent for financial managers to hedge against very strong inflation. We buy fire insurance and there is what, a 2% chance our house will be destroyed? It is better to err on the side of safety.
Don't borrow against the farm and put all of your money on options, naively expecting the dollar to crash on your schedule. Make sure you are prepared for the dollar to be strong or to fall! Hedge! Always hedge your bets. Be ready to change. Never marry your positions. Hedge everything.
-------------------- "In finance, everything that is agreeable is unsound and everything that is sound is disagreeable." --Sir Winston Churchill "The world may not only be stranger than we suppose, it may be stranger than we can suppose." J.B.S. Haldane "Truth is stranger than fiction, but it is because fiction is obliged to stick to possibilities; Truth isn't." Mark Twain
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FrankAgora
Wanderer



Registered: 05/27/21
Posts: 27
Loc: Florida
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Re: Dump your Dollars: Inflation Incoming [Re: Brian Jones]
#27755092 - 04/28/22 01:06 PM (1 year, 8 months ago) |
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Certainly not doom and gloom, but given that inflation is 3x higher than you predicted I hope you took the warnings.
-------------------- Though your heart lays restless, Love itself will still your soul.
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Asante
Mage


Registered: 02/06/02
Posts: 86,794
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Re: Dump your Dollars: Inflation Incoming [Re: FrankAgora] 1
#27755190 - 04/28/22 02:17 PM (1 year, 8 months ago) |
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This thread aged like a vintage wine.
Quote:
FrankAgora said: Long story short: every dollar you have in June 2021 will be worth less than 75 cents in June 2022
OP delivered. This is indeed the situation now with a whole lot of things that people need in real life, not some slanted inflation basket.
I bought 150 cans of fish, good till 2026, at the beginning of the year.
each can cost €0.99 Now they cost €1.39
Up 40% = €60 saved on the 150 cans.
At 1 can per week it will run out long before their expiration date, and in doing so it will save me €60 now, but then - WHO KNOWS?!
What the FUCK do you pay for a can of tuna in 2025 that went up 40$ in the first quarter of 2022?
This is already a VERY GOOD INVESTMENT.
And the waiting now is for someone to say: "yeah but can you eat a can of tuna?!"
As a matter of fact you can, or at least, I can.
-------------------- Omnicyclion.org higher knowledge starts here
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FrankAgora
Wanderer



Registered: 05/27/21
Posts: 27
Loc: Florida
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Re: Dump your Dollars: Inflation Incoming [Re: Asante]
#27755236 - 04/28/22 02:49 PM (1 year, 8 months ago) |
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Quote:
Asante said: This thread aged like a vintage wine.
Quote:
FrankAgora said: Long story short: every dollar you have in June 2021 will be worth less than 75 cents in June 2022
OP delivered. This is indeed the situation now with a whole lot of things that people need in real life, not some slanted inflation basket.
I bought 150 cans of fish, good till 2026, at the beginning of the year.
each can cost €0.99 Now they cost €1.39
Up 40% = €60 saved on the 150 cans.
At 1 can per week it will run out long before their expiration date, and in doing so it will save me €60 now, but then - WHO KNOWS?!
What the FUCK do you pay for a can of tuna in 2025 that went up 40$ in the first quarter of 2022?
This is already a VERY GOOD INVESTMENT.
And the waiting now is for someone to say: "yeah but can you eat a can of tuna?!"
As a matter of fact you can, or at least, I can.
Great buy, you literally purchased an asset that appreciated more than gold. If I had a hedge fund you could totally manage it
Personally, I love a box of macaroni with a can of chunky tuna, a recipe born out of necessity but endures out of nostalgia and unusually and unsuspecting goodness.
If I had bought bitcoin instead of my last car, I would be a billionaire...I saw it coming but I was too busy listening to conventional financial advice. I would have definitely taken the bus for a few years in order to have untold riches...but what's the use in kicking yourself....I met guy who paid 10,000 BTC for a pizza....talk about angst and regret.
Pretty soon I'm going to be telling my friends the same things about cans of tuna...there's at least one guy from Ukraine who did exactly what you did and literally saved a whole family from starving through simply hedging your bets and being smart about inflation.
-------------------- Though your heart lays restless, Love itself will still your soul.
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Asante
Mage


Registered: 02/06/02
Posts: 86,794
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Re: Dump your Dollars: Inflation Incoming [Re: FrankAgora]
#27755320 - 04/28/22 04:12 PM (1 year, 8 months ago) |
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Oatmeal, the rock bottom Polish kind that many of Europe's poor rely on, also went up 40%
An online friend from cameroon showed me how staples like rice and corn doubled in price there.
Those are far more worrisome things. The basic staples of society with their perennial low prices are starting to rise.
-------------------- Omnicyclion.org higher knowledge starts here
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Brian Jones
Club 27



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Re: Dump your Dollars: Inflation Incoming [Re: FrankAgora]
#27757832 - 04/30/22 04:21 PM (1 year, 8 months ago) |
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Quote:
FrankAgora said: Certainly not doom and gloom, but given that inflation is 3x higher than you predicted I hope you took the warnings.
You're right. But I don't see any good strategies for people at the individual level trying to protect the value of their money.
-------------------- "The Rolling Stones will break up over Brian Jones' dead body" John Lennon I don't want no commies in my car. No Christians either. The worst thing about corruption is that it works so well,
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geokills
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙


Registered: 05/08/01
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Loc: city of angels
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Re: Dump your Dollars: Inflation Incoming [Re: Brian Jones] 1
#27758211 - 04/30/22 11:17 PM (1 year, 8 months ago) |
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Hard and tech assets. Real estate, metals, a mixture of stocks and crypto. Not all will function ideally in any given snapshot, but over modern time, the mix has worked very well.
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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Asante
Mage


Registered: 02/06/02
Posts: 86,794
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Re: Dump your Dollars: Inflation Incoming [Re: geokills]
#27758370 - 05/01/22 04:53 AM (1 year, 8 months ago) |
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Agreed, there are lots of things you can do and at this point, if you have money, you GOT to do it, or that money will lose value so fast it will make your eyes water.
Quote:
geokills said: Hard and tech assets. Real estate, metals, a mixture of stocks and crypto.
Food is going up, clothing and furniture is going up. Energy prices are going up so pull the trigger on the energy efficient measures to lower the cost of heating, cooling and powering your home. Get that car with the good gas mileage or switch to that eBike after all.
There are TONS of things you can do, in the big and in the small, for regular people.
If you dont have "investment kind of money" you can still invest in economizing your lifestyle and with it, shave off excess cost. A dollar saved is a dollar made.
That cans of tuna thing just goes to show you can do something meaningful on any level, and you dont need banks or brokers, it can start in the store!
A solid foundation starts at home.
-------------------- Omnicyclion.org higher knowledge starts here
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Forrester
aspiring sociopath


Registered: 02/05/13
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Re: Dump your Dollars: Inflation Incoming [Re: Asante]
#27758387 - 05/01/22 05:34 AM (1 year, 8 months ago) |
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Most of my diet is local 100% grassfed beef. Price hasn't gone up at all since grass is still free 
Seriously though, getting myself out of the supply chain and as close to off-grid as possible has kept me feeling pretty safe in uncertain times.
-------------------- Repugnant is a creature who would squander the ability to lift an eye to heaven, conscious of his fleeting time here. ------------------- Have some medicinal mushrooms and want to get the most out of them? Try this double extraction method.
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Tulipslave
Homo sapiens sapiens, lol

Registered: 07/25/17
Posts: 11,109
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Re: Dump your Dollars: Inflation Incoming [Re: Brian Jones] 2
#27765086 - 05/05/22 08:29 PM (1 year, 8 months ago) |
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Quote:
Brian Jones said:
Quote:
FrankAgora said: Certainly not doom and gloom, but given that inflation is 3x higher than you predicted I hope you took the warnings.
You're right. But I don't see any good strategies for people at the individual level trying to protect the value of their money.
The strategy is to quit thinking about money.
Put your time and energy, what you can, not chasing more $ than is needed, but put it into tangible resources. Grow/develop a garden. Raise most of your own food. Can it. Stock dry and longer term perishables such as grains and fish/meat. Fish or hunt. Wildcraft herbals instead of buying OTC. Buy tools. Buy solar panels or other solar/hydro-powered systems where possible. Learn how to process other resources, such as lumber or textiles. What of these you can't do, support those financially, temporally, or beyond who do.
We need cultural, societal shift.
Edited by Tulipslave (05/05/22 08:55 PM)
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