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FrankAgora
Wanderer



Registered: 05/27/21
Posts: 27
Loc: Florida
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Dump your Dollars: Inflation Incoming 1
#27341047 - 06/09/21 02:59 AM (2 years, 7 months ago) |
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Long story short: every dollar you have in June 2021 will be worth less than 75 cents in June 2022, so buy anything right now that isn't going to lose value just for sitting still.
Inflation is going to be very bad this year in the US. The Federal Reserve itself has admitted it expects 5-15% inflation on most market goods this year. Besides the noticeable shortages of goods like chicken, gas, lumber, etc, there is something else going on in the economy that will make it harder for you to get what your family needs. The Fed has created so much new money over the past year (well, really since 1913 when the creature was born on Jekyll Island) that all of the money before 2020 has diminished in value already. Allegedly over 20% of all US dollars were printed last year. Roughly speaking this means any 2019 dollars you were saving turned into 80 cents effectively. The effect is not immediate, but it is certain. If you ask me, the Fed is an organization of corrupt political motive that has counterfeited trillions of dollars to serve foul private interests while operating under the guise of a public institution. If you doubt this, ask your local free-market economist. Or grab yourself a copy of anything by Murray Rothbard. Or tune in to Ron Paul for five minutes. Or join the Mises Caucus of the Libertarian Party. But just because somebody is stealing your money doesn't mean you have to sit there and take it on the chin.
Don't panic. That will cloud your judgment when you need to be shrewd. A recession worse than 2008 will be coming home soon. If you have any savings in dollars, get literally anything else. Gold, silver are global standards for safe savings. Stocks and bonds and all the forms of investment therein can be cool, but if the economy tanks you will be sitting on investments for years before you might see a return on what you put in, you'd be lucky to break even over the next 5 years. Crypto is a super useful tool, but a risky and volatile market unless you have your research in order and the governments around the globe are getting stricter with regulation.
The best investments are the ones that give you leverage on producing valuable things in the future. Invest in yourself, you are your most valuable asset. Learn something, that online course that's $100 now will be $150 next year. Build something, those raised garden beds your girlfriend keeps bugging you to make that runs $200 this year will be $300 next but the fruits will be just as sweet. Own something, get that PC or dehydrator now before the prices are jacked up when the recession hits. Create something, there is a niche you can serve locally or remotely, a brand waiting for you to form it that can reap benefits for years if only you took the time to invest in its invention. Invest in somebody you know who has a vision. For example, food trucks are cheaper than ever since so many went out of business during lockdowns, so if you know somebody who has what it takes, now could be the best time to invest in the dreams of your friends and family. Give something, $30 can feed a family in South America for a month, or it could buy you dinner for 2 at McDonald's next year, what do you think is the right thing to do with your money? Whatever you do, don't waste your resources by letting the Fed hand your purchasing power to somebody else. Saving your money in dollars is a financially irresponsible move these days. Keeping 3 months of expenses in cash somewhere is reasonable, but if you have anything more than that get it into something legitimate as soon as possible.
Heck if it costs $10 now for a spore syringe, it will be $15 in a year so even just sitting on something that isn't dollars will earn you dollars in time. Let alone if you invest in the knowledge and capability to produce spores in the future. Learn while it's cheap and earn while prices are high, this is financial stability.
Really though, give that sh*t away. You could gain the world but for the price of your soul. Better to be hungry, homeless, but happy in your own skin, than so comfortable that you forget your heart and let it rot away while you chase selfish ends with your insatiable appetite for pleasure.
-------------------- Though your heart lays restless, Love itself will still your soul.
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greenladel

Registered: 05/27/20
Posts: 636
Last seen: 4 months, 12 days
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Re: Dump your Dollars: Inflation Incoming [Re: FrankAgora] 2
#27341059 - 06/09/21 03:24 AM (2 years, 7 months ago) |
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money is only worth the value we give it. scare tactics like this are for the benefit of the ruling class. food comes from the ground and water comes from the sky. money is worthless.
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Ahab McBathsalts
OTD Windmill Administrator




Registered: 11/25/02
Posts: 35,107
Loc: Wind Turbine, AB
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Re: Dump your Dollars: Inflation Incoming [Re: FrankAgora] 2
#27341069 - 06/09/21 03:39 AM (2 years, 7 months ago) |
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The 10 year bond is at like 1.5%, and the 2 year is at 0.151%
The $15 Trillion dollar bond market believes inflation will average 1.5% over the next 10 years. Some rando that has been watching too much Fox news believes it will be 5-15%. Who do you think will be right? All this dog whistling about inflation is a GOP tactic to reduce tax increases and spending to public programs. You bought the hype boy.
Further you can buy rate futures for bonds, out 30 days, 60, 90, whatever and you can look at what the prices and rates of inflation are expected for the future from these.
Although it would be easy to make the case that the fed's quantitative easing is distorting bond markets by at least 1-2%.
-------------------- "Nobody exists on purpose. Nobody belongs anywhere. Everybody's going to die."
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tomnl
Beginner



Registered: 06/16/08
Posts: 1,635
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-------------------- Been away so long I hardly knew the place Gee, it's good to be back home Leave it till tomorrow to unpack my case Honey disconnect the phone I'm back in the USSA You don't know how lucky you are, boy Back in the US Back in the US Back in the USSA
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Brian Jones
Club 27



Registered: 12/18/12
Posts: 12,340
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Re: Dump your Dollars: Inflation Incoming [Re: FrankAgora]
#27342651 - 06/10/21 08:06 AM (2 years, 7 months ago) |
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Inflation will increase but not that much. It's being projected more for 2023 than next year.
And I am not giving up five minutes of my life that I can never get back to listen to Ron Paul.
-------------------- "The Rolling Stones will break up over Brian Jones' dead body" John Lennon I don't want no commies in my car. No Christians either. The worst thing about corruption is that it works so well,
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Hikeadellic
Fungi Fan



Registered: 08/31/20
Posts: 1,227
Loc: Appalachian Trail
Last seen: 12 minutes, 49 seconds
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Re: Dump your Dollars: Inflation Incoming [Re: Brian Jones]
#27344271 - 06/11/21 10:47 AM (2 years, 7 months ago) |
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The price of wood basically tripled in the past year
Look at the price of raw materials (concrete steel ect) and the value of the publicly traded company's that produce them.
The woods not getting any better, the dollar is getting cheaper and the supply chain is getting fucked
The money printer is on full blast
You have guys like JPOW whos job is to make sure everyone stays calm about money say "guys its not that bad, it will be ok, just trust me"
Yeah right
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yeah


Registered: 02/08/09
Posts: 3,729
Last seen: 1 month, 20 days
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Re: Dump your Dollars: Inflation Incoming [Re: Hikeadellic]
#27344595 - 06/11/21 03:56 PM (2 years, 7 months ago) |
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--------------------
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Loaded Shaman
Psychophysiologist



Registered: 03/02/15
Posts: 8,006
Loc: Now O'Clock
Last seen: 27 days, 18 hours
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Quote:
Ahab McBathsalts said: The 10 year bond is at like 1.5%, and the 2 year is at 0.151%
The $15 Trillion dollar bond market believes inflation will average 1.5% over the next 10 years. Some rando that has been watching too much Fox news believes it will be 5-15%. Who do you think will be right? All this dog whistling about inflation is a GOP tactic to reduce tax increases and spending to public programs. You bought the hype boy.
Further you can buy rate futures for bonds, out 30 days, 60, 90, whatever and you can look at what the prices and rates of inflation are expected for the future from these.
Although it would be easy to make the case that the fed's quantitative easing is distorting bond markets by at least 1-2%.
This is honestly my impression as well. Reddit is freaking the fuck out about inflation on all the finance subs. Good post, dude.
--------------------
  "Real knowledge is to know the extent of one’s ignorance." — Confucius
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Brian Jones
Club 27



Registered: 12/18/12
Posts: 12,340
Loc: attending Snake Church
Last seen: 4 hours, 16 minutes
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Re: Dump your Dollars: Inflation Incoming [Re: Loaded Shaman]
#27358598 - 06/22/21 08:49 AM (2 years, 7 months ago) |
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Quote:
Hikeadellic said: The price of wood basically tripled in the past year
Look at the price of raw materials (concrete steel ect) and the value of the publicly traded company's that produce them.
The woods not getting any better, the dollar is getting cheaper and the supply chain is getting fucked
The money printer is on full blast
You have guys like JPOW whos job is to make sure everyone stays calm about money say "guys its not that bad, it will be ok, just trust me"
Yeah right
https://www.seattletimes.com/business/as-lumber-prices-fall-the-threat-of-inflation-loses-its-bite/ I would be most pleased to be hearing this about gasoline.
-------------------- "The Rolling Stones will break up over Brian Jones' dead body" John Lennon I don't want no commies in my car. No Christians either. The worst thing about corruption is that it works so well,
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Asante
Mage


Registered: 02/06/02
Posts: 86,794
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Quote:
Ahab McBathsalts said: inflation will average 1.5% over the next 10 years.
thats as rich as philip morris saying smjoking doeshnt cause lung disease while all their experts knew it did.
There is no way US inflation is going to average 1.5% over the coming decade.
-------------------- Omnicyclion.org higher knowledge starts here
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LeafRaker
nomad



Registered: 11/28/11
Posts: 718
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Re: Dump your Dollars: Inflation Incoming [Re: Asante]
#27362602 - 06/25/21 11:01 AM (2 years, 7 months ago) |
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If you're really expecting inflation, expand your balance sheet as much as possible by growing a negative position in dollar financing. I.E. get as deeply into (fixed-rate, low cost) debt as you possibly can and use that to buy hard assets, especially primo land.
-------------------- Knowledge is finite, ignorance is infinite.
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Hikeadellic
Fungi Fan



Registered: 08/31/20
Posts: 1,227
Loc: Appalachian Trail
Last seen: 12 minutes, 49 seconds
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Re: Dump your Dollars: Inflation Incoming [Re: LeafRaker]
#27364141 - 06/26/21 01:02 PM (2 years, 6 months ago) |
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I was thinking the same thing!
Just gotta find a good rate on a loan
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Loaded Shaman
Psychophysiologist



Registered: 03/02/15
Posts: 8,006
Loc: Now O'Clock
Last seen: 27 days, 18 hours
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Re: Dump your Dollars: Inflation Incoming [Re: Hikeadellic] 1
#27373420 - 07/03/21 11:58 PM (2 years, 6 months ago) |
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If you've been investing and diversifying with any modicum of consistency before the pandemic, simply keep doing what you're doing.
It's people that haven't ever invested/were forced to learn how money and inflation works whom are reacting to a short bust-boom cycle that usually takes years, happening in a short period, that are chicken littles here.
You see it with people just getting into shape becoming neurotic about supplements, etc. They have a tenuous grasp of diet and nutrition to begin with, and that's the proof marker.
Experience is the ultimate, most impartial teacher (as the market should be, TBH).
--------------------
  "Real knowledge is to know the extent of one’s ignorance." — Confucius
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Moses_Davidson
Non-Prophet



Registered: 05/21/20
Posts: 613
Last seen: 3 months, 28 days
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Re: Dump your Dollars: Inflation Incoming [Re: Loaded Shaman]
#27375112 - 07/05/21 01:51 PM (2 years, 6 months ago) |
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For a very Democrat view of inflation, perhaps Warren Buffett and George Soros know more than the rest of us. Both big democrats.
Buffett has been bracing for inflation since "Helicopter" Ben Bernanke started enabling our government with giant bail-outs. Buffett bought rail because he believes gas prices are rising, and shipping costs via freight will be cost prohibitive making rail a more affordable shipping choice.
Likewise, George Soros, an ardent billionaire supporter of Biden, has written a book called "The Alchemy of Finance." Soros says that its the Federal Reserve buying the bonds, artificially propping up the bond market to maintain the guise of low inflation. In that book, he basically says that the dollar is going to crash. He says that ignorant people create a dissonance from reality, believing that the house of cards is strong, and the further their denial of the situation, the greater the reflexive snap-back to reality when the poop hits the fan. He was somewhat more eloquent. Soros' portfolio is almost entirely composed of stocks designed to profit from a falling dollar.
If you look at www.USdebtclock.org you can see, in the lower right, the total US unfunded liabilities. That's the total amount that we have to pay including all debts, leases, and other sneaky obligations. Its just over 150 trillion as I am typing this. So if we had (in 2018) 144.3 million taxpayers reported earning $11.6 trillion in adjusted gross income and paid $1.5 trillion in individual income taxes... that's an obligation-to-income ratio of 100:1 for each taxpayer. That's like a person with an income of $100k owing a total of $10 million in child support, credit cards, mortgages, car payments, alimony, and back-owed taxes. I'd say that guy has screwed the pooch.
Inflation? Yes, I agree with George Soros and Warren Buffett.
-------------------- "In finance, everything that is agreeable is unsound and everything that is sound is disagreeable." --Sir Winston Churchill "The world may not only be stranger than we suppose, it may be stranger than we can suppose." J.B.S. Haldane "Truth is stranger than fiction, but it is because fiction is obliged to stick to possibilities; Truth isn't." Mark Twain
Edited by Moses_Davidson (07/05/21 02:04 PM)
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Moses_Davidson
Non-Prophet



Registered: 05/21/20
Posts: 613
Last seen: 3 months, 28 days
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Re: Dump your Dollars: Inflation Incoming [Re: LeafRaker]
#27375124 - 07/05/21 02:00 PM (2 years, 6 months ago) |
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Quote:
LeafRaker said: If you're really expecting inflation, expand your balance sheet as much as possible by growing a negative position in dollar financing. I.E. get as deeply into (fixed-rate, low cost) debt as you possibly can and use that to buy hard assets, especially primo land.
Yes, also look at what happened in Brazil, Argentina, the Weimar Republic, England in the "Winter of Discontent", and the Roman Empire during their times of inflation. Commodities always do well. History repeats itself.
Interactive Brokers is really popular with hedge fund managers. 6x leverage during market hours, 3x overnight.
It's very difficult to forecast any amount of inflation with any degree of certainty... anyone who says otherwise is naive, but I think its safe to say that a degree of inflation is coming, and its prudent to adjust portfolios accordingly.
-------------------- "In finance, everything that is agreeable is unsound and everything that is sound is disagreeable." --Sir Winston Churchill "The world may not only be stranger than we suppose, it may be stranger than we can suppose." J.B.S. Haldane "Truth is stranger than fiction, but it is because fiction is obliged to stick to possibilities; Truth isn't." Mark Twain
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Moses_Davidson
Non-Prophet



Registered: 05/21/20
Posts: 613
Last seen: 3 months, 28 days
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Re: Dump your Dollars: Inflation Incoming [Re: Moses_Davidson]
#27375354 - 07/05/21 05:09 PM (2 years, 6 months ago) |
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I'd also add that the term "inflation" needs to be defined. The definition that they used in the 1970's when they said inflation was bad was changed in today's definition. The new "Core Inflation" definition of inflation conveniently leaves out most of the things increase in price the most during times of inflation: gas, electricity, oil, food & groceries, housing,... pretty much the only stuff they leave in is stuff that is now made in China to be cheaper, like clothing. Also computers, cars, and houses are "adjusted" (watered down) because the new ones are (sic) better so they can't be compared apples to apples to the old ones. If a new computer is twice as powerful as an old one, then the price needs to be adjusted accordingly.
So, if by "inflation" you mean that the cost of t-shirts (made in China by slave labor) and outdated computers and used cars are not going to go up in value much, then hey you've got nothing to worry about. Ignore the man behind the curtain.
But if you are concerned about the price of gas, electricity, the price of food, the price of housing, the cost to buy a new car,... well... that's different. Those things are just "volatile" so we sweep that under the rug. But hey, enjoy all those cheap used computers and used cars, and other plastic stuff made in China. Its only expected to go up in value a little!
Now back to your show
-------------------- "In finance, everything that is agreeable is unsound and everything that is sound is disagreeable." --Sir Winston Churchill "The world may not only be stranger than we suppose, it may be stranger than we can suppose." J.B.S. Haldane "Truth is stranger than fiction, but it is because fiction is obliged to stick to possibilities; Truth isn't." Mark Twain
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qman
Stranger

Registered: 12/06/06
Posts: 34,927
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Re: Dump your Dollars: Inflation Incoming [Re: Moses_Davidson]
#27375595 - 07/05/21 07:47 PM (2 years, 6 months ago) |
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Quote:
Moses_Davidson said:
Quote:
LeafRaker said: If you're really expecting inflation, expand your balance sheet as much as possible by growing a negative position in dollar financing. I.E. get as deeply into (fixed-rate, low cost) debt as you possibly can and use that to buy hard assets, especially primo land.
Yes, also look at what happened in Brazil, Argentina, the Weimar Republic, England in the "Winter of Discontent", and the Roman Empire during their times of inflation. Commodities always do well. History repeats itself.
Interactive Brokers is really popular with hedge fund managers. 6x leverage during market hours, 3x overnight.
It's very difficult to forecast any amount of inflation with any degree of certainty... anyone who says otherwise is naive, but I think its safe to say that a degree of inflation is coming, and its prudent to adjust portfolios accordingly.
The global bond markets disagree with this inflationary thesis being spewed out by the MSM and other fear mongers. For inflation to materialize, credit growth must not be dead in the water like it has been the past 10 years, wages must move higher, debts must be erased and the velocity of money can't be at a 60 year low. None of those factors are likely to change and all of this government 'stimulus' isn't amounting to much of anything.
We can't have growing demand of resources, if we did the entire system would collapse. We must live with near 0% interest rates in the minds of the very wealthy and that's what continues to happen year after year now. If you think inflation is coming, buy puts on the 30 year bond and get rich when yields move from 2% to 8% or higher.
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MushBrain1
Poppin Fresh Pillsbury Doughboy

Registered: 07/05/21
Posts: 132
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Re: Dump your Dollars: Inflation Incoming [Re: qman]
#27375653 - 07/05/21 08:33 PM (2 years, 6 months ago) |
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Gold Coins and Junk Silver buy today sell tomorrow spread is > 30%. Gold and Silver ETF's are taxed just like coins! There is NO metal, it is a scan! 500X more fake Silver in ETF's than physical Silver existing! If you buy metals, possess them!
Do not be a fool if you need that money, those fees will eat you alive! Buy some solid stocks and do not sell when the market tanks. You MUST HAVE CASH to buy back in when the over-correction adjusts.
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Brian Jones
Club 27



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Posts: 12,340
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Re: Dump your Dollars: Inflation Incoming [Re: FrankAgora]
#27376268 - 07/06/21 11:37 AM (2 years, 6 months ago) |
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We're probably looking at 3.5% inflation, not a doom and gloom scenario.
-------------------- "The Rolling Stones will break up over Brian Jones' dead body" John Lennon I don't want no commies in my car. No Christians either. The worst thing about corruption is that it works so well,
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ManianFH
living in perverty



Registered: 07/06/04
Posts: 14,741
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Re: Dump your Dollars: Inflation Incoming [Re: Brian Jones]
#27376428 - 07/06/21 02:04 PM (2 years, 6 months ago) |
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Does that mean to negotiate a higher wage at your job interview in anticipation of your salary being 3.5% less powerful?
-------------------- notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... " ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."
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