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Jokeshopbeard
Humble Student

Registered: 11/30/11
Posts: 26,088
Loc: Deep in the system
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Re: COVID-19 aka. SARS-CoV-2 - Main Thread on the Novel Coronavirus Pandemic PART 2 (Second Wave 2020-2021 season) [Re: LeafRaker]
#27296267 - 05/05/21 10:09 PM (2 years, 9 months ago) |
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Quote:
LeafRaker said: The idea that a highly contagious and super obvious disease was circulating without notice is kind of pushing it. I know folks want to believe it, but the burden of proof is massively on the fantasists.
I'm as certain as certain can be that I picked up COVID on a flight between Boston - London at the very end of December 2019. Symptom wise it seems unmistakable that's what it was.
I don't find it fantastic in the slightest to think that this was circulating for a good time before the media/the world picked up on it. Lots of people, myself included, are inclined to put such things down as 'I got really sick' without going to the point of even reporting it to a doctor. I just assumed it was a really bad flu or something of the like, and with the worst of the symptoms starting to subside by around day five it didn't seem that far out of the ordinary, considering I've dealt with some pretty nasty illnesses in my time.
The fact that residual symptoms hung around for a month or so, and that my lungs have never been quite the same since says a lot IMO, but still, I'm not one to go to see a doctor unless I'm dying or have symptoms that are really unusual.
Why is it so fantastic that many people probably just did the same before the data started to collect that there was something novel circulating?
-------------------- Let it be seen that you are nothing. And in knowing that you are nothing... there is nothing to lose, there is nothing to gain. What can happen to you? Something can happen to the body, but it will either heal or it won't. What's the big deal? Let life knock you to bits. Let life take you apart. Let life destroy you. It will only destroy what you are not. --Jac O'keeffe
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Fiery
Sword of Fire


Registered: 12/24/12
Posts: 36,574
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Re: COVID-19 aka. SARS-CoV-2 - Main Thread on the Novel Coronavirus Pandemic PART 2 (Second Wave 2020-2021 season) [Re: Jokeshopbeard]
#27296278 - 05/05/21 10:23 PM (2 years, 9 months ago) |
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Quote:
Jokeshopbeard said:
Quote:
LeafRaker said: The idea that a highly contagious and super obvious disease was circulating without notice is kind of pushing it. I know folks want to believe it, but the burden of proof is massively on the fantasists.
I'm as certain as certain can be that I picked up COVID on a flight between Boston - London at the very end of December 2019. Symptom wise it seems unmistakable that's what it was.
Thank you for confirming this.
Just for the record, I've had the flu like 3 or 4 times or so( in my entire life) and I never get ( nor have gotten) the flu shot. I have my other vaccines "the major stuff" of course... but-
around November of 2019 I got the flu. it lasted 4 hard days- but only two with a fever. ( standard flu I was like this sucks but no big deal)
Then around December of the same year(2019) just weeks later I got the "flu" AGAIN except this time I was in bed for 10 days. What was the WORST FLU OF MY LIFE- No joke. My fever didn't break 102 for 5 days straight. I was in absolute hell with covid symptoms. ( and still deal with lingering ones like shortness of breath)(this was all back in December 2019)
Anyways- science HAS already proven Covid was worldwide - the burden of proof lies on the prosecutor to disprove it. in this case LeafRaker
So here we go again- doctors can argue that I just got two different strains of the flu by mad crazy chance back to back- but that's highly unlikely.
It just gets me worked up when people think that it's impossible that I had covid in USA *way* back in December 2019. Anything's possible- but the cards are stacked against it that I got the "flu" twice in a row- a normally very healthy " never gets sick" kind of a guy
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Jokeshopbeard
Humble Student

Registered: 11/30/11
Posts: 26,088
Loc: Deep in the system
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Re: COVID-19 aka. SARS-CoV-2 - Main Thread on the Novel Coronavirus Pandemic PART 2 (Second Wave 2020-2021 season) [Re: Fiery]
#27296302 - 05/05/21 10:39 PM (2 years, 9 months ago) |
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I also got some kind of fever on a flight from London - Boston in July 2019. That was the worst fever I've ever had, with the fever dreams lasting for weeks after the fever itself had died down. And travelling many third world countries, as I have over the course of my life, I don't even consider fever to be something that far out of the ordinary.
I think there are many people that go to see a doctor at the slightest sign of illness, and some that avoid doctors unless entirely necessary. Then of course you have the fact that most doctors (IME) are arrogant assholes who consider their initial diagnosis to be 'case closed' on the matter, invariably fucking up what gets reported upstream and therefore trends to be noticed and accounted for.
All in all, there are a great number of factors - to my mind - which explain why COVID would have taken a good amount of time to be recognized for what it was and to make it to mainstream media after its appearance in the world.
Hence, those that scoff at the fact that lots of people had it before it became an official/global matter are likely not taking many factors into account, IMO.
-------------------- Let it be seen that you are nothing. And in knowing that you are nothing... there is nothing to lose, there is nothing to gain. What can happen to you? Something can happen to the body, but it will either heal or it won't. What's the big deal? Let life knock you to bits. Let life take you apart. Let life destroy you. It will only destroy what you are not. --Jac O'keeffe
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koods
Ribbit



Registered: 05/26/11
Posts: 106,333
Loc: Maryland/DC Burbs
Last seen: 53 minutes, 49 seconds
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Re: COVID-19 aka. SARS-CoV-2 - Main Thread on the Novel Coronavirus Pandemic PART 2 (Second Wave 2020-2021 season) [Re: Fiery]
#27296304 - 05/05/21 10:42 PM (2 years, 9 months ago) |
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The coronavirus colds are fairly covid like if you have never been infected. It’s likely that those viruses caused serious disease before the human population acquired a level of immunity in childhood.
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NotSheekle said “if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”
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koods
Ribbit



Registered: 05/26/11
Posts: 106,333
Loc: Maryland/DC Burbs
Last seen: 53 minutes, 49 seconds
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Re: COVID-19 aka. SARS-CoV-2 - Main Thread on the Novel Coronavirus Pandemic PART 2 (Second Wave 2020-2021 season) [Re: koods]
#27296310 - 05/05/21 10:50 PM (2 years, 9 months ago) |
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This is how we know covid wasn’t circulating widely in December 2019

We know how fast it spreads and rate of growth when nobody is trying to stop it. 1 case in December = 1,000,000 cases in February. We didn’t have a million cases in February. People would be filling up hospitals, and that didn’t happen until a month later. Covid started spreading in the US in January.
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NotSheekle said “if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”
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Jokeshopbeard
Humble Student

Registered: 11/30/11
Posts: 26,088
Loc: Deep in the system
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Re: COVID-19 aka. SARS-CoV-2 - Main Thread on the Novel Coronavirus Pandemic PART 2 (Second Wave 2020-2021 season) [Re: koods]
#27296314 - 05/05/21 10:56 PM (2 years, 9 months ago) |
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I'm not sure how the image you posted shows anything to support your thesis?
-------------------- Let it be seen that you are nothing. And in knowing that you are nothing... there is nothing to lose, there is nothing to gain. What can happen to you? Something can happen to the body, but it will either heal or it won't. What's the big deal? Let life knock you to bits. Let life take you apart. Let life destroy you. It will only destroy what you are not. --Jac O'keeffe
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Fiery
Sword of Fire


Registered: 12/24/12
Posts: 36,574
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Re: COVID-19 aka. SARS-CoV-2 - Main Thread on the Novel Coronavirus Pandemic PART 2 (Second Wave 2020-2021 season) [Re: Jokeshopbeard]
#27296319 - 05/05/21 10:58 PM (2 years, 9 months ago) |
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Quote:
Jokeshopbeard said:
I think there are many people that go to see a doctor at the slightest sign of illness, and some that avoid doctors unless entirely necessary. Then of course you have the fact that most doctors (IME) are arrogant assholes who consider their initial diagnosis to be 'case closed' on the matter, invariably fucking up what gets reported upstream and therefore trends to be noticed and accounted for.
All in all, there are a great number of factors - to my mind - which explain why COVID would have taken a good amount of time to be recognized for what it was and to make it to mainstream media after its appearance in the world.
well said.
Yes thanks for that. and you know what? I don't go to the doctor unless it's a damn near life threatening emergency and I ALMOST dialed 911 one night I just kept drinking water and shitting for hours I could barely move to go spew the water back out the other end running up to a 103 fever
I never even went to the doctor but I damn near should have. Thank goodness for over the counter flu medicine
So the next question is should I get the vaccine if I'm pretty damn certain I've already had covid. if so- being two different types would JJ or Moderna be better.
any medical people chime in here? I'm a noob.
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koods
Ribbit



Registered: 05/26/11
Posts: 106,333
Loc: Maryland/DC Burbs
Last seen: 53 minutes, 49 seconds
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Re: COVID-19 aka. SARS-CoV-2 - Main Thread on the Novel Coronavirus Pandemic PART 2 (Second Wave 2020-2021 season) [Re: Jokeshopbeard] 1
#27296381 - 05/06/21 12:00 AM (2 years, 9 months ago) |
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Jokeshopbeard said: I'm not sure how the image you posted shows anything to support your thesis?
I’ve heard at least a dozen people on here say they’re sure they had covid in December. This simply cannot be true. That many cases in this community would suggest tens of thousands of cases in the country or more. Tens of thousands of cases in December would have been noticed. Things would have hit the fan in early January not mid March.
Conversely if you do the exponential growth we saw in March backwards, you get to a single case in mid January.
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NotSheekle said “if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”
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Fiery
Sword of Fire


Registered: 12/24/12
Posts: 36,574
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Re: COVID-19 aka. SARS-CoV-2 - Main Thread on the Novel Coronavirus Pandemic PART 2 (Second Wave 2020-2021 season) [Re: koods]
#27296391 - 05/06/21 12:12 AM (2 years, 9 months ago) |
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Quote:
koods said:
This simply cannot be true. .
ONE DOES NOT SIMPLY WALK INTO MORDOR
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Jokeshopbeard
Humble Student

Registered: 11/30/11
Posts: 26,088
Loc: Deep in the system
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Re: COVID-19 aka. SARS-CoV-2 - Main Thread on the Novel Coronavirus Pandemic PART 2 (Second Wave 2020-2021 season) [Re: koods]
#27296447 - 05/06/21 01:26 AM (2 years, 9 months ago) |
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Quote:
koods said: This simply cannot be true.
Fair enough. I'll agree to disagree with you on this point, for I don't think statistical thinking is ever truly applicable to the strangeness of the human condition nor the phenomenon of life on this planet as a whole.
I think it gives a small part of the picture, but to depend on it as the be all and end all explanation of all phenomena is a mistake IMO.
-------------------- Let it be seen that you are nothing. And in knowing that you are nothing... there is nothing to lose, there is nothing to gain. What can happen to you? Something can happen to the body, but it will either heal or it won't. What's the big deal? Let life knock you to bits. Let life take you apart. Let life destroy you. It will only destroy what you are not. --Jac O'keeffe
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LeafRaker
nomad



Registered: 11/28/11
Posts: 718
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Re: COVID-19 aka. SARS-CoV-2 - Main Thread on the Novel Coronavirus Pandemic PART 2 (Second Wave 2020-2021 season) [Re: Jokeshopbeard]
#27296642 - 05/06/21 07:27 AM (2 years, 9 months ago) |
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Quote:
Jokeshopbeard said:
Quote:
LeafRaker said: The idea that a highly contagious and super obvious disease was circulating without notice is kind of pushing it. I know folks want to believe it, but the burden of proof is massively on the fantasists.
I'm as certain as certain can be that I picked up COVID on a flight between Boston - London at the very end of December 2019. Symptom wise it seems unmistakable that's what it was.
I don't find it fantastic in the slightest to think that this was circulating for a good time before the media/the world picked up on it. Lots of people, myself included, are inclined to put such things down as 'I got really sick' without going to the point of even reporting it to a doctor. I just assumed it was a really bad flu or something of the like, and with the worst of the symptoms starting to subside by around day five it didn't seem that far out of the ordinary, considering I've dealt with some pretty nasty illnesses in my time.
The fact that residual symptoms hung around for a month or so, and that my lungs have never been quite the same since says a lot IMO, but still, I'm not one to go to see a doctor unless I'm dying or have symptoms that are really unusual.
Why is it so fantastic that many people probably just did the same before the data started to collect that there was something novel circulating?
Fact is: it's hard to miss and creates massive numbers of novel observations very, very quickly. I hope you and others like you were seriously evaluated and that you spoke with contact tracers and such. Have you been tested for antibodies or otherwise in contact with infectious disease specialists?
Mentioning December 2019 AND a LHR-BOS flight makes your case a lot more credible than people who refer to the Apolone study that asserts that it was circulating in Italy in September 2019, especially given that the assay used there was a totally new tool. Wuhan is very well connected and airplanes are basically a transmission nightmare, that you may have picked it up on such a flight then requires almost no challenge to the idea it started in Wuhan.
And if there are *good* challenges to the idea it started in Wuhan, I'd really hope some well-resourced folks are looking into them.
-------------------- Knowledge is finite, ignorance is infinite.
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LeafRaker
nomad



Registered: 11/28/11
Posts: 718
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Re: COVID-19 aka. SARS-CoV-2 - Main Thread on the Novel Coronavirus Pandemic PART 2 (Second Wave 2020-2021 season) [Re: koods]
#27296644 - 05/06/21 07:29 AM (2 years, 9 months ago) |
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Quote:
koods said:
Quote:
Jokeshopbeard said: I'm not sure how the image you posted shows anything to support your thesis?
I’ve heard at least a dozen people on here say they’re sure they had covid in December. This simply cannot be true. That many cases in this community would suggest tens of thousands of cases in the country or more. Tens of thousands of cases in December would have been noticed. Things would have hit the fan in early January not mid March.
Conversely if you do the exponential growth we saw in March backwards, you get to a single case in mid January.
Yeah, the fact is that they almost certainly can't all be true and that most of them are almost certainly false. That all of them are false is a much harder thing to assert.
-------------------- Knowledge is finite, ignorance is infinite.
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LeafRaker
nomad



Registered: 11/28/11
Posts: 718
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Re: COVID-19 aka. SARS-CoV-2 - Main Thread on the Novel Coronavirus Pandemic PART 2 (Second Wave 2020-2021 season) [Re: Jokeshopbeard]
#27296653 - 05/06/21 07:38 AM (2 years, 9 months ago) |
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I don't think this is half as suggestive as you think it is.
Flights are respiratory disasters. If you actually fly a lot, this is very, very well known. That one particular fever was worse than another is also something that will cause barely a blip in perceptions of people who fly a lot and people well acquainted with infectious diseases.
If you really think is so likely, you should be engaging with medical personnel. You clearly come from a well-resourced segment of society (I've got a handful of guesses here given your geography, some of which are ultra-well resourced) and I think you owe it to folks to aid the science. There should be some *particular* things in evidence, not just more respiratory illness/fever stories.
-------------------- Knowledge is finite, ignorance is infinite.
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LeafRaker
nomad



Registered: 11/28/11
Posts: 718
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Re: COVID-19 aka. SARS-CoV-2 - Main Thread on the Novel Coronavirus Pandemic PART 2 (Second Wave 2020-2021 season) [Re: Jokeshopbeard]
#27296655 - 05/06/21 07:39 AM (2 years, 9 months ago) |
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Quote:
Jokeshopbeard said:
Quote:
koods said: This simply cannot be true.
Fair enough. I'll agree to disagree with you on this point, for I don't think statistical thinking is ever truly applicable to the strangeness of the human condition nor the phenomenon of life on this planet as a whole.
I think it gives a small part of the picture, but to depend on it as the be all and end all explanation of all phenomena is a mistake IMO.
Statistical thinking is all about being more and less strongly suggestive. It's essentially never conclusive. So: you *could* be right.
-------------------- Knowledge is finite, ignorance is infinite.
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bodhisatta 
Smurf real estate agent


Registered: 04/30/13
Posts: 61,890
Loc: Milky way
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Re: COVID-19 aka. SARS-CoV-2 - Main Thread on the Novel Coronavirus Pandemic PART 2 (Second Wave 2020-2021 season) [Re: Jokeshopbeard]
#27296690 - 05/06/21 07:58 AM (2 years, 9 months ago) |
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Quote:
Jokeshopbeard said:
Quote:
koods said: This simply cannot be true.
Fair enough. I'll agree to disagree with you on this point, for I don't think statistical thinking is ever truly applicable to the strangeness of the human condition nor the phenomenon of life on this planet as a whole.
I think it gives a small part of the picture, but to depend on it as the be all and end all explanation of all phenomena is a mistake IMO.
Wut. It's basically clear as day you didn't have covid.
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morrowasted
Worldwide Stepper


Registered: 10/30/09
Posts: 31,378
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Last seen: 11 days, 2 hours
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Re: COVID-19 aka. SARS-CoV-2 - Main Thread on the Novel Coronavirus Pandemic PART 2 (Second Wave 2020-2021 season) [Re: bodhisatta]
#27296943 - 05/06/21 12:17 PM (2 years, 9 months ago) |
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BBC radio on NPR just claimed that some new analysis indicates that the actual US death toll from COVID-19 is over 900,000
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morrowasted
Worldwide Stepper


Registered: 10/30/09
Posts: 31,378
Loc: House of Mirrors
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Re: COVID-19 aka. SARS-CoV-2 - Main Thread on the Novel Coronavirus Pandemic PART 2 (Second Wave 2020-2021 season) [Re: morrowasted]
#27296963 - 05/06/21 12:30 PM (2 years, 9 months ago) |
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In lieu of an increased bonus or payraise, my job awarded us all with our very own medallions, replete with coronavirus and n95
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Asante
Mage


Registered: 02/06/02
Posts: 86,961
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Re: COVID-19 aka. SARS-CoV-2 - Main Thread on the Novel Coronavirus Pandemic PART 2 (Second Wave 2020-2021 season) [Re: morrowasted]
#27297043 - 05/06/21 01:32 PM (2 years, 9 months ago) |
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morrowasted said: its over 900,000
900000?! Theres no way that can be right!

But probably, it is
-------------------- Omnicyclion.org higher knowledge starts here
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LeafRaker
nomad



Registered: 11/28/11
Posts: 718
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Re: COVID-19 aka. SARS-CoV-2 - Main Thread on the Novel Coronavirus Pandemic PART 2 (Second Wave 2020-2021 season) [Re: morrowasted]
#27297163 - 05/06/21 02:57 PM (2 years, 9 months ago) |
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Got a link or perhaps a way to find the report?
I think we have under counts of cases and deaths everywhere. But estimating how much is tough. Quote:
morrowasted said: BBC radio on NPR just claimed that some new analysis indicates that the actual US death toll from COVID-19 is over 900,000
Study is here: http://www.healthdata.org/special-analysis/estimation-excess-mortality-due-covid-19-and-scalars-reported-covid-19-deaths
Claim is that basically every place is under counting, but a few higher-income places are pretty good at getting within 25% of the true number.
The U.S.'s actual total is estimate to be nearly twice it's reported total.
Many countries are much further than the U.S. from their posted estimates. Some of the purported worst cases are Egypt and Japan, whose numbers were low but the report claims they were off by over a factor of ten.
I've only glanced it and will look more closely later, but it looks wild!
-------------------- Knowledge is finite, ignorance is infinite.
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koods
Ribbit



Registered: 05/26/11
Posts: 106,333
Loc: Maryland/DC Burbs
Last seen: 53 minutes, 49 seconds
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Re: COVID-19 aka. SARS-CoV-2 - Main Thread on the Novel Coronavirus Pandemic PART 2 (Second Wave 2020-2021 season) [Re: morrowasted]
#27297175 - 05/06/21 03:05 PM (2 years, 9 months ago) |
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Quote:
morrowasted said: BBC radio on NPR just claimed that some new analysis indicates that the actual US death toll from COVID-19 is over 900,000
The excess death numbers are pretty solid. If you got ~700,000 excess deaths, that means 200,000 people didn’t die that you’d expect to die of other causes. I can think of a few places where deaths were lower than normal, such as suicides and flu. Probably other infectious diseases too. Accidents maybe? 900,000 is a stretch but it’s certainly higher than the reported number.
There are a few states where excess deaths are lower than covid deaths, which suggests that fewer people were dying of other causes in a significant way
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NotSheekle said “if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”
Edited by koods (05/06/21 03:10 PM)
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