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geokills
∙∙∙∙☼ º¿° ☼∙∙∙∙


Registered: 05/08/01
Posts: 23,417
Loc: city of angels
Last seen: 10 minutes, 34 seconds
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: geokills]
#27257370 - 03/17/21 12:32 PM (2 years, 10 months ago) |
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Quote:
geokills said: A fantastic article self-published by the legendary (and presently fugitive founder of BitMEX) Arthur Hayes, that will take at least a half hour to digest, and I strongly recommend finding the time to chew through it:
TLDR: Long crypto for the inherent inflation risk derived from globally persistent negative real interest rates, and balance that exposure with instruments that can profit from interest rate volatility.
The later can be difficult to source. For my part, I am considering longer dated put options on the TLT as a more conservative strategy, or possibly long calls on the TBT for a more aggressive strategy. There are some newer instruments mentioned in the comments of the Hayes article which I will also be looking into, namely TDTF and IVOL. All of these trades have already started to move.
If anyone has additional ideas here, please share.
There are some potential counterarguments offered in this interview as well:
An interesting, if not also dense economic dialogue that touches on the subject. Listening to economists and the layered hedges in their speak is an exercise in the endurance of my attention span... but I do think there were some relevant points made between roughly 15-25 minutes in the interview. What I took away was the idea that there are two primary avenues to avoid inflationary risk, namely 1) raising taxes or 2) GDP growth catching up to offset debt growth. Option 2 is unlikely, as the US remains on a path to vastly out-borrow GDP. So if GDP isn't growing fast enough and debt keeps growing, confidence in the debt erodes, treasuries begin to get dumped, and that money flows into goods resulting in inflation. This "powder keg" of debt is an underlying instability that can result in a debt rollover crisis when the bond market decides it doesn't want to play game any longer, but one that is difficult if not impossible to time. History also suggests that interest rates don't reliably predict inflation or disinflation (e.g. 1970's interest rates were not high ahead of inflation, in the 1980's interest rates were not low ahead of disinflation).
On crypto specifically, it is noted that crypto has value because it has liquidity use, useful for anonymous transactions and is in limited supply. But because there is no barrier to creating substitutes or derivative claims on a crypto asset, the value has to eventually goes to zero. This is an intriguing argument, part of which I hear from detractors often. It is true, we see thousands of cryptocurrencies in the sector, most of which aren't unique in their function or design. I am not sure what the ability to create derivatives on the underlying has to do with the asset ultimately declining to zero however. If someone with a better understanding of economic theory can put that into layman's terms, I'd be interested to hear it.
The network effect of the leading crypto asset, bitcoin, in conjunction with its ability to function outside of a central authority, seems to place it in a unique position (kind of like gold). However, I suppose that just as the bond-holders must continue to dance in order to support a sustained growth in government debt, network participants (miners in particular) must be reliably incentivized to continue to support the bitcoin ecosystem for it to maintain value.
I admittedly ducked out of the interview after they transitioned to healthcare and insurance around the mid mark... as I can only handle listening to economists in small doses.
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-------------------- ┼ ··∙ long live the shroomery ∙·· ┼ ...╬π╥ ╥π╬...
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Asante
Mage


Registered: 02/06/02
Posts: 86,795
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Nature Boy]
#27257404 - 03/17/21 12:50 PM (2 years, 10 months ago) |
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Quote:
Nature Boy said:
Also, I was wondering why my LINK was pumping (10% on the day so far). Here's the reason:
So thats why my LINK is going weeeeee
-------------------- Omnicyclion.org higher knowledge starts here
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LeafRaker
nomad



Registered: 11/28/11
Posts: 718
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: qman]
#27257477 - 03/17/21 01:44 PM (2 years, 10 months ago) |
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Quote:
You're not the first to come up with that conspiracy theory and you won't be the last. It usually comes from people that don't understand the history of crypto and people that feel they missed the boat on the massive gains.
Could you sound any more wet behind the ears? That's a serious question, BTW. I'm not sure if you could sound wetter behind the ears.
The skills needed to put this stuff aren't typical and the people who have them are very likely to be very, very well paid for them. Besides, very few people in and around big money things aren't playing an information arbitrage game. Simply put, I'm guessing the herd celebrating crypto at this point hasn't thought much about what could be wrong with it and that it just might end in tears. It is weird how little folks on a psychedelic ('they open your mind, man!') board are looking beyond the typical line.
I'm still going to ask: how seriously has anyone looked at the possibility that this is all a big Rube Goldberg designed to benefit a select few???
BTW, I first bought when BTCUSD was 20...
-------------------- Knowledge is finite, ignorance is infinite.
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LeafRaker
nomad



Registered: 11/28/11
Posts: 718
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: trees]
#27257484 - 03/17/21 01:48 PM (2 years, 10 months ago) |
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Quote:
trees said:
Quote:
teknix said: The whole insider and outsider thingy, I'm not exactly sure what you mean?
It's just 
Haha! In every society, there's a small group who are good at making things work for them in virtually any situation, those are insiders. Almost everyone is an outsider of whom the insiders reliably get the better.
My suspicion is that crypto won't be an ultimate defense against some feared inflation monster. It'll end up more like just another financial scam and that people who are already anomalously powerful (insiders!) will be the biggest beneficiaries.
-------------------- Knowledge is finite, ignorance is infinite.
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trees


Registered: 02/08/09
Posts: 9,194
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Enkidu]
#27257525 - 03/17/21 02:29 PM (2 years, 10 months ago) |
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It's not even Thursday and ADAs pitching a tent

Edited by trees (03/17/21 03:27 PM)
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Asante
Mage


Registered: 02/06/02
Posts: 86,795
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: trees]
#27257689 - 03/17/21 04:00 PM (2 years, 10 months ago) |
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I've seen a video to the effect that they followed several cryptos, and ADA came out as outperforming ETH
Meanwhile, LINK is still in double digit land
-------------------- Omnicyclion.org higher knowledge starts here
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eLeSDenes
Mycelium Expander




Registered: 05/25/11
Posts: 955
Last seen: 1 year, 11 months
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: LeafRaker]
#27257813 - 03/17/21 04:59 PM (2 years, 10 months ago) |
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Quote:
LeafRaker said:
Quote:
You're not the first to come up with that conspiracy theory and you won't be the last. It usually comes from people that don't understand the history of crypto and people that feel they missed the boat on the massive gains.
Could you sound any more wet behind the ears? That's a serious question, BTW. I'm not sure if you could sound wetter behind the ears.
The skills needed to put this stuff aren't typical and the people who have them are very likely to be very, very well paid for them. Besides, very few people in and around big money things aren't playing an information arbitrage game. Simply put, I'm guessing the herd celebrating crypto at this point hasn't thought much about what could be wrong with it and that it just might end in tears. It is weird how little folks on a psychedelic ('they open your mind, man!') board are looking beyond the typical line.
I'm still going to ask: how seriously has anyone looked at the possibility that this is all a big Rube Goldberg designed to benefit a select few???
BTW, I first bought when BTCUSD was 20...
Dude, btc (and most cryptos) are open source, meaning that basically anyone can take a copy of it and check for hacks, exploits, etc.... You can also query the blockchain and make sure that it is indeed a decentralised database... so just do your own research to decide if it's the right investment for you - the data is all there
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Enkidu
"No-Such-Person"


Registered: 07/09/16
Posts: 10,698
Last seen: 6 months, 10 days
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: eLeSDenes] 1
#27257838 - 03/17/21 05:16 PM (2 years, 10 months ago) |
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Lets take a step back maybe
leaf seems to be being met with a bit of hostility i think he may be taking a bit of offense to
I think we try to keep the "conspiracy theory" aspect out of this thread (i could be wrong) and try to keep more to the financial aspect of it (i could be wrong)
That being said, i dont think crypto being a huge fucking conspiracy / corruption is out of the realm of possibility. The opposite (financial freedom, fighting the good fight, etc) also possible.
I know for a fact very wealthy individuals got in early with crypto and have vastly increased their already large cash portfolios
Anyway, I TOOK MORE PROFIT
-------------------- Within You , Without You
      
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Nimpo
Big Black


Registered: 05/10/12
Posts: 2,375
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Enkidu]
#27257869 - 03/17/21 05:39 PM (2 years, 10 months ago) |
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ADA hits Coinbase tomorrow. Hoping we get a spike in price this week/weekend, and a subsequent crash back to $0.9-1.08 early next week.
Im gonna buy the dip, dont @ me
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Nature Boy
Stranger than most



Registered: 07/09/07
Posts: 8,241
Loc: Samsara
Last seen: 2 months, 5 days
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Nimpo]
#27257881 - 03/17/21 05:57 PM (2 years, 10 months ago) |
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Since Coinbase is a NY corporation I imagine (but don't know for a fact) that I'd be eligible as a New York resident to trade Cardano. Haven't been able to so far. Does anyone know the answer?
From what I've read, it goes "live" on CBP at or around noon tomorrow if there is enough liquidity. Unfortunately, I will be at yet another meeting (last in this quarter) up in Valhalla, so I will be away from my computer when it happens.
-------------------- All submitted posts under this user name are works of pure fiction or outright lies. Any information, statement, or assertion contained therein should be considered pure unadulterated bullshit. Note well: Sorry, but I do not answer PM's unless you are a long-time trusted friend. If you have a question, ask it in the appropriate thread.
Edited by Nature Boy (03/17/21 06:28 PM)
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qman
Stranger

Registered: 12/06/06
Posts: 34,927
Last seen: 23 hours, 48 minutes
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: LeafRaker] 1
#27258119 - 03/17/21 09:09 PM (2 years, 10 months ago) |
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Quote:
LeafRaker said:
Quote:
You're not the first to come up with that conspiracy theory and you won't be the last. It usually comes from people that don't understand the history of crypto and people that feel they missed the boat on the massive gains.
Could you sound any more wet behind the ears? That's a serious question, BTW. I'm not sure if you could sound wetter behind the ears.
The skills needed to put this stuff aren't typical and the people who have them are very likely to be very, very well paid for them. Besides, very few people in and around big money things aren't playing an information arbitrage game. Simply put, I'm guessing the herd celebrating crypto at this point hasn't thought much about what could be wrong with it and that it just might end in tears. It is weird how little folks on a psychedelic ('they open your mind, man!') board are looking beyond the typical line.
I'm still going to ask: how seriously has anyone looked at the possibility that this is all a big Rube Goldberg designed to benefit a select few???
BTW, I first bought when BTCUSD was 20...
Why don't you start a new thread about how crypto and Bitcoin could be a massive fraud and how the Big Money players are going to screw over the vast majority of holders at some point. Present your evidence and we can have a very constructive discussion. I'm all ears and open minded to all possibilities. I'm sure the major financial institutions investing in Bitcoin would appreciate any information about crypto being a massive scam.
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Nature Boy
Stranger than most



Registered: 07/09/07
Posts: 8,241
Loc: Samsara
Last seen: 2 months, 5 days
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: qman] 1
#27258373 - 03/18/21 04:08 AM (2 years, 10 months ago) |
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Please don't feed the trolls. But if LeafRaker has to vent conspiracy theory, I agree it deserves its own thread and doesn't belong here.
-------------------- All submitted posts under this user name are works of pure fiction or outright lies. Any information, statement, or assertion contained therein should be considered pure unadulterated bullshit. Note well: Sorry, but I do not answer PM's unless you are a long-time trusted friend. If you have a question, ask it in the appropriate thread.
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Enkidu
"No-Such-Person"


Registered: 07/09/16
Posts: 10,698
Last seen: 6 months, 10 days
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Nature Boy]
#27258377 - 03/18/21 04:17 AM (2 years, 10 months ago) |
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I could see btc and eth dipping lower in the near term
Ill look to swap cash back into a position if it does
-------------------- Within You , Without You
      
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kanemush
Grumpy

Registered: 12/07/17
Posts: 1,502
Last seen: 8 months, 28 days
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Enkidu]
#27258413 - 03/18/21 05:23 AM (2 years, 10 months ago) |
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going all out on mining eth and etc with a little raven coin mixed in. long term who knows what will happen its like playing poker sometimes you win sometimes you lose.
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Hikeadellic
Fungi Fan



Registered: 08/31/20
Posts: 1,227
Loc: Appalachian Trail
Last seen: 22 minutes, 32 seconds
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: kanemush]
#27258519 - 03/18/21 08:13 AM (2 years, 10 months ago) |
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Personally I would not start mining eth right now
Eth2 is getting closer and closer and when it finally gets here mining goes away
Even sooner (like next few weeks) we have the EIP update coming which reduces mining profitability even further
I would look into mining ZEC, it has similar tokenomics to bitcoin like the 21 million coin cap but it has additional privacy features
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qman
Stranger

Registered: 12/06/06
Posts: 34,927
Last seen: 23 hours, 48 minutes
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Hikeadellic]
#27258604 - 03/18/21 09:36 AM (2 years, 10 months ago) |
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sh4d0ws
LSx


Registered: 02/26/08
Posts: 12,086
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: kanemush]
#27258660 - 03/18/21 10:23 AM (2 years, 10 months ago) |
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Quote:
kanemush said: going all out on mining eth and etc with a little raven coin mixed in. long term who knows what will happen its like playing poker sometimes you win sometimes you lose.
If you don't already own all the equipment this probably isn't a great idea. As hikeadellic pointed out EIP 1559 is going to likely be here by June/July seriously reducing miner profits. I'm not sure how profitable ETC is, but it's still unlikely to be worth mining unless you already own a bunch of graphics cards and other hardware required (PSUs, motherboards, processors, etc).
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Hikeadellic
Fungi Fan



Registered: 08/31/20
Posts: 1,227
Loc: Appalachian Trail
Last seen: 22 minutes, 32 seconds
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: sh4d0ws]
#27258719 - 03/18/21 11:02 AM (2 years, 10 months ago) |
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I like ETC for speculation only
It's back end is kinda bad and it regularly gets 51%'ed
ZEC has been showing higher lows and other signs of consolidation the last few months and its still extremely below previous highs
I will likely be holding ZEC for the rest of the year
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Nimpo
Big Black


Registered: 05/10/12
Posts: 2,375
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: qman]
#27258765 - 03/18/21 11:39 AM (2 years, 10 months ago) |
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Quote:
qman said:
And if or when this gets approval, it will be the start of the massive crypto bubble of 2021.
We're in the bubble already.
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qman
Stranger

Registered: 12/06/06
Posts: 34,927
Last seen: 23 hours, 48 minutes
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Re: Cryptocurrency: A Discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Related Projects [Re: Nimpo]
#27258978 - 03/18/21 01:41 PM (2 years, 10 months ago) |
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Quote:
Nimpo said:
Quote:
qman said:
And if or when this gets approval, it will be the start of the massive crypto bubble of 2021.
We're in the bubble already.
Actually not, almost every technical and cycle indicator points to nothing that resembles euphoria or overbought territory.
The 2018 top truly resembled a bubble, we're not even 3 times the previous top, that's nothing for Bitcoin cycles. Do you know your Bitcoin history, or are you just looking at price at this point?
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