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budmanman
OTD Masterbater



Registered: 02/07/07
Posts: 17,982
Loc: PNW
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [Re: koods]
#26865726 - 08/06/20 01:11 AM (3 years, 6 months ago) |
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One that is highly infectious because its completely novel.
It spread very fast. They couldn't do much to stop it, their drop implies herd immunity.
-------------------- Everything I have ever said is total bogus bs I am full of crud therefore everything I say should never be taken literal. And I am mentally unstable.
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budmanman
OTD Masterbater



Registered: 02/07/07
Posts: 17,982
Loc: PNW
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [Re: budmanman]
#26865727 - 08/06/20 01:14 AM (3 years, 6 months ago) |
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The faster it spreads the faster you get a barrier of people who can't catch it anymore.
-------------------- Everything I have ever said is total bogus bs I am full of crud therefore everything I say should never be taken literal. And I am mentally unstable.
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koods
Ribbit



Registered: 05/26/11
Posts: 106,308
Loc: Maryland/DC Burbs
Last seen: 35 minutes, 30 seconds
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [Re: budmanman] 2
#26865748 - 08/06/20 01:49 AM (3 years, 6 months ago) |
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Quote:
budmanman said: One that is highly infectious because its completely novel.
It spread very fast. They couldn't do much to stop it, their drop implies herd immunity.
The drop is because of the lockdown. Herd immunity? Where do you get this from? We are nowhere near herd immunity. 🤦‍♂️
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NotSheekle said “if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”
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budmanman
OTD Masterbater



Registered: 02/07/07
Posts: 17,982
Loc: PNW
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [Re: koods]
#26865752 - 08/06/20 01:58 AM (3 years, 6 months ago) |
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Throughout their entire lock down their cases raised exponentially. The whole lock down lol. The total cases are
https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/21/cdc-study-actual-covid-19-cases/
Total cases are 6-24 or maybe even more higher than reported, so hard to even have a conversation with you because of just how behind you are on everything all the time. SO after this I will go back to doing the smart thing and pretending you don't exist.
State of New york population is 19.45 Million, Confirmed cases of the state of new york is 423 thousand. So 6 - 24 times the number of cases as reported as confirmed, so lets do the 24 where does that put us. Over 10 million. That would be over 50% of their population.
-------------------- Everything I have ever said is total bogus bs I am full of crud therefore everything I say should never be taken literal. And I am mentally unstable.
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budmanman
OTD Masterbater



Registered: 02/07/07
Posts: 17,982
Loc: PNW
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [Re: budmanman]
#26865756 - 08/06/20 02:17 AM (3 years, 6 months ago) |
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Also I will add if you are generous to the total cases and times the total by 6 in the country and divide by deaths to get the % rate of fatality, you get a half of a percent, which is half as deadly per case as the common flu.
Its just highly infectious. More contagious, but per capita of infection half as deadly.
People are just absolutely obsessed with doom and gloom. They want things to be bad. Bad news gets more views than good news.
The media capitalizes on this every day.
-------------------- Everything I have ever said is total bogus bs I am full of crud therefore everything I say should never be taken literal. And I am mentally unstable.
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koods
Ribbit



Registered: 05/26/11
Posts: 106,308
Loc: Maryland/DC Burbs
Last seen: 35 minutes, 30 seconds
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [Re: budmanman]
#26865758 - 08/06/20 02:24 AM (3 years, 6 months ago) |
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Did you even read the study that data was based on
Probably not or you would have seen this;
Quote:
Overall, an estimated 1% of people in the San Francisco Bay Area have had Covid-19, while 6.9% of people in New York City have, according to the paper’s authors
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NotSheekle said “if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”
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budmanman
OTD Masterbater



Registered: 02/07/07
Posts: 17,982
Loc: PNW
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [Re: koods]
#26865759 - 08/06/20 02:30 AM (3 years, 6 months ago) |
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The study was based on tests from more than 16,000 people across the 10 sites, but one limitation is that it relies on old data.
Wow 6.9% on old data, we got noe 435,000 confirmed cases, hey that alone is 2.3%, 2.3% x 6 which is the lower end estimate, which isn't what you would expect a lower end, from the place hit the hardest when testing was the lowest and worst, but 2.3 is already 13.8% which is already higher when being generous. Thats great that you didn't think yourself.
Thats great that the study found that when using old data, good thing I have a human brain and can do math myself.
I'm just gonna do the smart thing and do the actual ignore so I don't have the displeasure of seeing any more of your over and over again un thought out posts.
-------------------- Everything I have ever said is total bogus bs I am full of crud therefore everything I say should never be taken literal. And I am mentally unstable.
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koods
Ribbit



Registered: 05/26/11
Posts: 106,308
Loc: Maryland/DC Burbs
Last seen: 35 minutes, 30 seconds
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [Re: budmanman]
#26865766 - 08/06/20 02:45 AM (3 years, 6 months ago) |
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That’s the study you’re basing your guess work on, so don’t complain about old data.
If you read the actual study, you’d see that NYC had an estimated 11x the actual case count. And you’re using NY state data and this study does not address New York State data.
All of this information is based on retrospective seroprevalence data. The testing is not randomized sampling of the population. It is based on results from mainly people seeking healthcare services, which it should be obvious, will skew highly towards individual who have reason to believe they ha e been sick.
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NotSheekle said “if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”
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koods
Ribbit



Registered: 05/26/11
Posts: 106,308
Loc: Maryland/DC Burbs
Last seen: 35 minutes, 30 seconds
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [Re: koods]
#26865768 - 08/06/20 02:53 AM (3 years, 6 months ago) |
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Anyway the study is highly flawed and practically useless, but it is the one you picked.
231,000 confirmed cases. Study says ~11x is real count.
2.54 million/8.4 million = 30%
That’s being generous, because the amount of testing was low early on.
But even with that number, you are no where near herd immunity as you claim
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NotSheekle said “if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”
Edited by koods (08/06/20 02:56 AM)
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pirate-blues



Registered: 10/15/12
Posts: 13,695
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [Re: budmanman] 1
#26865928 - 08/06/20 07:33 AM (3 years, 6 months ago) |
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https://www.kwtx.com/2020/08/05/texas-school-superintendent-diagnosed-with-covid-19-dies/
Worried about my SIL. She's a special ed teacher in her early 30's, healthy weight no underlying conditions, etc., but my nephew has been in and out of the pediatric ICU and a pediatric hospital all summer for catastrophic epilepsy. The sort where the best doctors in the world are shrugging their shoulders and saying that if keto doesn't work for controlling them, all they can do after that is study and research him. He's 2. Exactly the kind of child that's especially at risk.
Not a light decision to close schools but another thing to consider is that the children my SIL teach are special needs. How is it safe for them to be back there?

Nightmare.
I know school is the only place where some kids can get 2/3 of their daily meals. I know it's catastrophic to shut schools - there has to be a way to both help children in need without opening up school with no real actual precautions for everyone as normal, with some masks thrown in as theater. But this is not safe. This is not safe. Jesus christ. Kids already have died and more kids are going to.
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feevers


Registered: 12/28/10
Posts: 8,546
Loc:
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Quote:
pirate-blues said: https://www.kwtx.com/2020/08/05/texas-school-superintendent-diagnosed-with-covid-19-dies/
Worried about my SIL. She's a special ed teacher in her early 30's, healthy weight no underlying conditions, etc., but my nephew has been in and out of the pediatric ICU and a pediatric hospital all summer for catastrophic epilepsy. The sort where the best doctors in the world are shrugging their shoulders and saying that if keto doesn't work for controlling them, all they can do after that is study and research him. He's 2. Exactly the kind of child that's especially at risk.
Not a light decision to close schools but another thing to consider is that the children my SIL teach are special needs. How is it safe for them to be back there?

Nightmare.
I know school is the only place where some kids can get 2/3 of their daily meals. I know it's catastrophic to shut schools - there has to be a way to both help children in need without opening up school with no real actual precautions for everyone as normal, with some masks thrown in as theater. But this is not safe. This is not safe. Jesus christ. Kids already have died and more kids are going to.
That's a rough situation. It doesn't seem like epilepsy is a risk factor for COVID, but if it's severe enough to land him in the ICU who knows. I have a feeling the whole sending them back to school experiment will come to an end pretty quickly in most states. I don't even the think the teachers in my state plan on showing up
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feevers


Registered: 12/28/10
Posts: 8,546
Loc:
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [Re: budmanman]
#26866002 - 08/06/20 08:38 AM (3 years, 6 months ago) |
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If we counted flu deaths the same way we count covid deaths with confirmed cases and cause of death, the worst flu season in the last 6 years killed 15,620 people.
Instead flu deaths "are estimates that the CDC produces by multiplying the number of flu death counts reported by various coefficients produced through complicated algorithms. These coefficients are based on assumptions of how many cases, hospitalizations, and deaths they believe went unreported."
Quote:
"Influenza and pneumonia" took 62,034 lives in 2001—61,777 of which were attributed to pneumonia and 257 to flu, and in only 18 cases was flu virus positively identified. Between 1979 and 2002, NCHS data show an average 1348 flu deaths per year (range 257 to 3006). The NCHS data would be compatible with CDC mortality estimates if about half of the deaths classed by the NCHS as pneumonia were actually flu initiated secondary pneumonias. But the NCHS criteria indicate otherwise: "Cause-of-death statistics are based solely on the underlying cause of death... defined by WHO as `the disease or injury which initiated the train of events leading directly to death. In a written statement, CDC media relations responded to the diverse statistics: "Typically, influenza causes death when the infection leads to severe medical complications." And as most such cases "are never tested for virus infection...CDC considers these [NCHS] figures to be a very substantial undercounting of the true number of deaths from influenza. Therefore, the CDC uses indirect modelling methods to estimate the number of deaths associated with influenza." CDC's model calculated an average annual 36 155 deaths from influenza associated underlying respiratory and circulatory causes (JAMA 2003;289: 179-86[Abstract/Free Full Text]). Less than a quarter of these (8097) were described as flu or flu associated underlying pneumonia deaths. Thus the much publicised figure of 36 000 is not an estimate of yearly flu deaths, as widely reported in both the lay and scientific press, but an estimate—generated by a model—of flu-associated death.
https://aspe.hhs.gov/cdc-%E2%80%94-influenza-deaths-request-correction-rfc
Imagine if only 50 of the 160k COVID deaths had a positive COVID test. The COVID death count does not factor in unreported cases or secondary complications that don't currently test positive, such as pneumonia death following a COVID infection.
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feevers


Registered: 12/28/10
Posts: 8,546
Loc:
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [Re: feevers] 4
#26866018 - 08/06/20 08:48 AM (3 years, 6 months ago) |
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I've talked to nurses who've gone weeks without a single flu patient during flu season. At the same hospital when COVID came around, they had 100+ COVID patients around the clock for weeks... with a shutdown going on that was massively dampening its spread. Anytime someone says "it's just a bad flu" they're really just saying "I don't know what I'm talking about and don't care to".
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koods
Ribbit



Registered: 05/26/11
Posts: 106,308
Loc: Maryland/DC Burbs
Last seen: 35 minutes, 30 seconds
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [Re: feevers] 1
#26866021 - 08/06/20 08:52 AM (3 years, 6 months ago) |
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Even if NYC hit herd immunity after a month of infections and 8x normal mortality, saying that a month of 8x mortality would be an acceptable price to reach it is pretty fucking evil. That’s close to a million people.
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NotSheekle said “if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”
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pirate-blues



Registered: 10/15/12
Posts: 13,695
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [Re: feevers] 1
#26866040 - 08/06/20 09:05 AM (3 years, 6 months ago) |
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How's your mom feevers??
And yeah it sucks. For a lot of complex reasons he's exhausted all his medication options. There is a lot of promise with keto for him, and he's got an entire medical team at one of the best pediatric hospitals in the states with a whole department dedicated to the ketogenic diet for medical management. Whole family(except me, but I am trying out all the recipes and stuff so I can cook for them) is going keto now haha. So far he's been seizure free for almost a whole week which is amazing - he's not fully transitioned over yet, but I'm hopeful that it will help control them.
I'm mostly concerned about his potential for developing kawasaki disease tbh. And unfortunately seizures are caused by fevers, so it's just a bad situation for him all around if he gets it regardless of any rare complications. After a bad bout of seizures he's completely out of it for weeks so I feel like covid would be just terrible for him.
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feevers


Registered: 12/28/10
Posts: 8,546
Loc:
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Quote:
pirate-blues said: How's your mom feevers??
And yeah it sucks. For a lot of complex reasons he's exhausted all his medication options. There is a lot of promise with keto for him, and he's got an entire medical team at one of the best pediatric hospitals in the states with a whole department dedicated to the ketogenic diet for medical management. Whole family(except me, but I am trying out all the recipes and stuff so I can cook for them) is going keto now haha. So far he's been seizure free for almost a whole week which is amazing - he's not fully transitioned over yet, but I'm hopeful that it will help control them.
I'm mostly concerned about his potential for developing kawasaki disease tbh. And unfortunately seizures are caused by fevers, so it's just a bad situation for him all around if he gets it regardless of any rare complications. After a bad bout of seizures he's completely out of it for weeks so I feel like covid would be just terrible for him.
Hopefully the keto keeps working for him, seems like a lot of people see success with it, the family support is huge. Epilepsy is a bitch on its own, can't imagine having to manage it and have to be constantly worried about covid too. So many people are living with at risk people, making them go back to school is basically forcing them to roll the dice with life... it's messed up. Kids and teachers should get to go back if they want to, but there should be a good second option for the millions who have pretty serious reasons that they shouldn't.
My mom's situation is pretty bad, she got admitted to the hospital for the third time yesterday, then transferred in to Boston. They took 13 biopsies before that and no signs of cancer, the fluid in her lungs was negative. The best guess is that COVID back in Feb caused a pneumonia that lingered and also triggered an autoimmune response (IgG4 or something similar), and it's choking off her organs and pressing on her aorta. If so, there's a chance they can flood her with steroids and anti-inflammatories and possibly keep it at bay. They have to figure out what it is first though. As covid cases here start to rise and her condition declines it's pretty much a race against time.
I gotta say, waving from the sidewalk up at a tinted second story hospital window to a family member you may never see again is something I hope people never have to experience again after all of this.
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morrowasted
Worldwide Stepper


Registered: 10/30/09
Posts: 31,378
Loc: House of Mirrors
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [Re: feevers] 2
#26866197 - 08/06/20 10:50 AM (3 years, 6 months ago) |
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Quote:
I think I have had one flu shot in my life and have caught the flu probably close to 100 times in my life
wtf that doesnt even seem possible.
sucks though. I havent caught the flu a single time since I was 11. I was exposed to it like once a week last Fall. kinda makes ya wonder if vaccines and/or PPE might help 
but feevers is right, even during flu season I'd only see about one case per week. we never had "flu wards" like we do for covid. this virus is much more contagious. the range of severity is much greater than that of the flu, but when you take into account the total number of cases, it's a lot more deadly on average. the long term sequelae are also much worse too. i talked to someone who works in a dialysis clinic and they are having a lot of people who developed end stage renal disease as a result of acute covid infection
Edited by morrowasted (08/06/20 11:00 AM)
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falcon



Registered: 04/01/02
Posts: 8,012
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Quote:
sequelae
been looking for a word that means what it does.
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The Blind Ass
Bodhi



Registered: 08/16/16
Posts: 26,730
Loc: The Primordial Mind
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [Re: falcon] 1
#26866305 - 08/06/20 11:30 AM (3 years, 6 months ago) |
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A condition which is the consequence of a previous disease or injury.
-------------------- Give me Liberty caps -or- give me Death caps
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koods
Ribbit



Registered: 05/26/11
Posts: 106,308
Loc: Maryland/DC Burbs
Last seen: 35 minutes, 30 seconds
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Quote:
morrowasted said:
Quote:
I think I have had one flu shot in my life and have caught the flu probably close to 100 times in my life
wtf that doesnt even seem possible.
sucks though. I havent caught the flu a single time since I was 11. I was exposed to it like once a week last Fall. kinda makes ya wonder if vaccines and/or PPE might help 
but feevers is right, even during flu season I'd only see about one case per week. we never had "flu wards" like we do for covid. this virus is much more contagious. the range of severity is much greater than that of the flu, but when you take into account the total number of cases, it's a lot more deadly on average. the long term sequelae are also much worse too. i talked to someone who works in a dialysis clinic and they are having a lot of people who developed end stage renal disease as a result of acute covid infection
Apparently, a lot of people are coming back after recovering like a month later with renal failure. People who werent even that sick.
Edited by koods (08/06/20 11:56 AM)
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