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HamHead
Hard Ass Motherfucker



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The Covid death count is inflated
#26759383 - 06/20/20 08:39 AM (3 years, 7 months ago) |
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-------------------- The Italian researchers’ findings, published by the INT’s scientific magazine Tumori Journal, show 11.6% of 959 healthy volunteers enrolled in a lung cancer screening trial between September 2019 and March 2020 had developed coronavirus antibodies well before February. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-timing-idUSKBN27V0KF This online first version has been peer-reviewed, accepted and edited, but not formatted and finalized with corrections from authors and proofreaders https://www.icandecide.org/
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ONE OZ SLUG
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Re: The Covid death count is inflated [Re: HamHead]
#26759430 - 06/20/20 09:10 AM (3 years, 7 months ago) |
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No clicky
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O_Dweeds
Humanitarian Magician


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Re: The Covid death count is inflated [Re: ONE OZ SLUG]
#26759498 - 06/20/20 09:52 AM (3 years, 7 months ago) |
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Gotta sell those vaccines! *also did not watch video; responding to OP's topic/post
-------------------- Oxygen. Water. Neil Young Our word "planet" comes from the Greek word planetes, meaning "wanderer." "There ain't no revolution, only evolution, but every time I'm in Georgia I eat a peach for peace." Gregg Allman
Edited by O_Dweeds (06/20/20 10:06 AM)
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HamHead
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Re: The Covid death count is inflated [Re: ONE OZ SLUG]
#26759503 - 06/20/20 09:54 AM (3 years, 7 months ago) |
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Quote:
ONE OZ SLUG said: No clicky
-------------------- The Italian researchers’ findings, published by the INT’s scientific magazine Tumori Journal, show 11.6% of 959 healthy volunteers enrolled in a lung cancer screening trial between September 2019 and March 2020 had developed coronavirus antibodies well before February. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-timing-idUSKBN27V0KF This online first version has been peer-reviewed, accepted and edited, but not formatted and finalized with corrections from authors and proofreaders https://www.icandecide.org/
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feevers


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Re: The Covid death count is inflated [Re: O_Dweeds]
#26759507 - 06/20/20 09:55 AM (3 years, 7 months ago) |
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OP's self-perceived ability to comprehend elementary concepts like all-cause mortality is inflated.
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O_Dweeds
Humanitarian Magician


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Re: The Covid death count is inflated [Re: feevers]
#26759526 - 06/20/20 10:09 AM (3 years, 7 months ago) |
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Mainstream Media wants you dead.
If you watch something and it creates fear/anger then stop watching that program. I realized this as a child; it's sad to see grown adults still falling in.
-------------------- Oxygen. Water. Neil Young Our word "planet" comes from the Greek word planetes, meaning "wanderer." "There ain't no revolution, only evolution, but every time I'm in Georgia I eat a peach for peace." Gregg Allman
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HamHead
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Re: The Covid death count is inflated [Re: feevers]
#26759545 - 06/20/20 10:15 AM (3 years, 7 months ago) |
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Quote:
feevers said: OP's self-perceived ability to comprehend elementary concepts like all-cause mortality is inflated.
Further explanations needed, please and thank you.
Unless it's just default now to insult people whos opinions don't align with their own.
-------------------- The Italian researchers’ findings, published by the INT’s scientific magazine Tumori Journal, show 11.6% of 959 healthy volunteers enrolled in a lung cancer screening trial between September 2019 and March 2020 had developed coronavirus antibodies well before February. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-timing-idUSKBN27V0KF This online first version has been peer-reviewed, accepted and edited, but not formatted and finalized with corrections from authors and proofreaders https://www.icandecide.org/
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feevers


Registered: 12/28/10
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Re: The Covid death count is inflated [Re: HamHead]
#26759555 - 06/20/20 10:21 AM (3 years, 7 months ago) |
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Quote:
HamHead said:
Quote:
feevers said: OP's self-perceived ability to comprehend elementary concepts like all-cause mortality is inflated.
Further explanations needed, please and thank you.
Unless it's just default now to insult people whos opinions don't align with their own.
We've done this three times already in the other thread, on literally the exact same concept. Feel free to refer to it, I'm not wasting my time again only to have you copy and paste the Wikipedia entry for H1N1 and then melt and ban yourself, again.
Maybe find another passion to post about, epidemiology is a little over your head apparently.
And steven crowder is an outrage grifter that pretends climate change is a hoax, weed is evil and should be illegal, amongst many other "science-based opinions" he peddles for clicks from dummies.
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HamHead
Hard Ass Motherfucker



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Re: The Covid death count is inflated [Re: feevers]
#26759564 - 06/20/20 10:27 AM (3 years, 7 months ago) |
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Quote:
feevers said:
Quote:
HamHead said:
Quote:
feevers said: OP's self-perceived ability to comprehend elementary concepts like all-cause mortality is inflated.
Further explanations needed, please and thank you.
Unless it's just default now to insult people whos opinions don't align with their own.
We've done this three times already in the other thread, on literally the exact same concept. Feel free to refer to it, I'm not wasting my time again only to have you copy and paste the Wikipedia entry for H1N1 and then melt and ban yourself, again.
I melted due to being awarded a gold medal in mental gymnastics. Thanks again jokeshopbeard, I'll never forget you. Hope you have a nice day.
I'll keep posting other people's opinions, because it's obvious, few of you have any respect for what I have to say.
Back on topic though.
It's interesting to hear a 25% number. Given we have around 112,000 currently, minus 25% and those numbers come down to what we have seen in a bad influenza seasons. Around 80k.
Sorry, don't want to derail this thread for personal issues.
-------------------- The Italian researchers’ findings, published by the INT’s scientific magazine Tumori Journal, show 11.6% of 959 healthy volunteers enrolled in a lung cancer screening trial between September 2019 and March 2020 had developed coronavirus antibodies well before February. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-timing-idUSKBN27V0KF This online first version has been peer-reviewed, accepted and edited, but not formatted and finalized with corrections from authors and proofreaders https://www.icandecide.org/
Edited by HamHead (06/20/20 10:29 AM)
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badchad
Mad Scientist

Registered: 03/02/05
Posts: 13,373
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Re: The Covid death count is inflated [Re: HamHead]
#26759569 - 06/20/20 10:29 AM (3 years, 7 months ago) |
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Deaths are reported by state, and there is actually a decent amount of variability in how deaths are reported. Summarizing at the broadest level, its up to the coroner to determine a list a primary cause of death on a death certificate. As an example, in some states an attending or "lead" physician can serve as the final signatory on a death certificate, other states have the coroner sign off on most (or all) deaths.
Determining a cause of death has a subjective component and is a bit tricky. Generally, old people are the most likely to die, and its very, very common for them to be suffering a number of different ailments. We all see in this in drug related deaths: If someone is high on meth, has been drinking, and then crashes their car into a telephone pole what's the cause of death?
tldr: determining COVID deaths has variability surrounding it, but its not much different than any other type of death. And yes, there is often funding for all sorts of things: cancer, diabetes, heart disease etc, so there isn't a huge incentive for coroners to list COVID as a cause of death for "more funding."
-------------------- ...the whole experience is (and is as) a profound piece of knowledge. It is an indellible experience; it is forever known. I have known myself in a way I doubt I would have ever occurred except as it did. Smith, P. Bull. Menninger Clinic (1959) 23:20-27; p. 27. ...most subjects find the experience valuable, some find it frightening, and many say that is it uniquely lovely. Osmond, H. Annals, NY Acad Science (1957) 66:418-434; p.436
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Ovoidhunter
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Re: The Covid death count is inflated [Re: badchad]
#26759607 - 06/20/20 10:49 AM (3 years, 7 months ago) |
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Probably funded by the chinese communist to cause civil unrest in the us. It's all a part of their plan. It's all coming together.. but we will prevail. Merica.
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feevers


Registered: 12/28/10
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Re: The Covid death count is inflated [Re: badchad]
#26759608 - 06/20/20 10:50 AM (3 years, 7 months ago) |
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People just have no idea how epidemiology works. I love it when they try to argue about COVID being inflated by bringing up the flu deaths.
The type of people who need to read this probably won't understand it anyway, but here's how flu deaths are estimated:
Quote:
The 25,000 to 69,000 numbers that Trump cited do not represent counted flu deaths per year; they are estimates that the CDC produces by multiplying the number of flu death counts reported by various coefficients produced through complicated algorithms. These coefficients are based on assumptions of how many cases, hospitalizations, and deaths they believe went unreported. In the last six flu seasons, the CDC’s reported number of actual confirmed flu deaths—that is, counting flu deaths the way we are currently counting deaths from the coronavirus—has ranged from 3,448 to 15,620, which is far lower than the numbers commonly repeated by public officials and even public health experts.
https://scientificamerican.com/observations/comparing-covid-19-deaths-to-flu-deaths-is-like-comparing-apples-to-oranges/
From the Department of Health and Human Services website:
Quote:
US data on influenza deaths are false and misleading.The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) acknowledges a difference between flu death and flu associated death yet uses the terms interchangeably. Additionally, there are significant statistical incompatibilities between official estimates and national vital statistics data. Compounding these problems is a marketing of fear—a CDC communications strategy in which medical experts "predict dire outcomes" during flu seasons.
https://aspe.hhs.gov/cdc-%E2%80%94-influenza-deaths-request-correction-rfc
So if we were to compare covid to the flu using the same counting method, which the COVID method is the far more accurate method, In 4 months we're already at over 10x the amount of flu deaths (during a horrible year) with an estimated 90-95% of our population not even exposed to it yet.
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Niffla



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Re: The Covid death count is inflated [Re: HamHead] 2
#26759626 - 06/20/20 10:58 AM (3 years, 7 months ago) |
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YESSSS another covid thread, just what I needed in my life
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HAIL OUR NEW OTD KING
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Yukon Cornelius
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Re: The Covid death count is inflated [Re: badchad]
#26759647 - 06/20/20 11:08 AM (3 years, 7 months ago) |
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I don't subscribe to the idea that there is a major financial incentive to reporting a death as Co-vid related. What makes more sense is medical professionals and the CDC erring on the side of caution by using the highest possible estimate when presenting the data to the public. If they underestimate the threat then they will put their reputation as well as more lives at risk compared to overstating the severity of the virus.
From an ethical stand point I understand why this would be the best course of action. Yes there is an inherent risk from tertiary effects caused by measures to contain the spread/mortality rate, but it doesn't outweigh the damage that a global pandemic can cause left unchecked.
-------------------- "I didn't know chicken's wore suspenders" - Towelie
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feevers


Registered: 12/28/10
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Quote:
Yukon Cornelius said: I don't subscribe to the idea that there is a major financial incentive to reporting a death as Co-vid related. What makes more sense is medical professionals and the CDC erring on the side of caution by using the highest possible estimate when presenting the data to the public. If they underestimate the threat then they will put their reputation as well as more lives at risk compared to overstating the severity of the virus.
From an ethical stand point I understand why this would be the best course of action. Yes there is an inherent risk from tertiary effects caused by measures to contain the spread/mortality rate, but it doesn't outweigh the damage that a global pandemic can cause left unchecked.
Statistical significance is something epidemiologists work with in almost everything they do.
Yes, there are some people that will happen to die, during a deadly viral pandemic, that just so happen to die of completely unrelated consequences, during the exact small time period in their life where they actually had the pandemic virus currently active in their system.
That has been determined to be statistically insignificant, because of the extreme unlikelihood of it. Even if it happened in 5% of reported COVID deaths, which would be an astronomical amount for something so unlikely, that means the official death count would be like 114k instead of 120k.
They then go further and assess for all-cause mortality, or the overall total number of deaths in an area compared to the yearly average. They also factor in the large portion of at-home and nursing facility COVID deaths that were not counted as COVID. These estimated deaths don't get added in to the official death toll, but they are used to ensure that the death total is in fact not-overblown, that any misdiagnosed confirmed COVID deaths do not influence the death count in a statistically significant way, and there are many arguing that the number is much higher.
Edited by feevers (06/20/20 11:32 AM)
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koods
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Re: The Covid death count is inflated [Re: feevers] 1
#26759689 - 06/20/20 11:35 AM (3 years, 7 months ago) |
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It’s pretty clear the opposite is true, and the death count is actually too low. If you look at the raw mortality data, there are tens of thousands of extra deaths over and above the official Covid count.
--------------------
NotSheekle said “if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”
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feevers


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Re: The Covid death count is inflated [Re: koods]
#26759695 - 06/20/20 11:38 AM (3 years, 7 months ago) |
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My post in the other thread last month:
From the CDC yesterday:
Quote:
Counting only confirmed or probable COVID-19–associated deaths, however, likely underestimates the number of deaths attributable to the pandemic. The counting of confirmed and probable COVID-19–associated deaths might not include deaths among persons with SARS-CoV-2 infection who did not access diagnostic testing, tested falsely negative, or became infected after testing negative, died outside of a health care setting, or for whom COVID-19 was falsely not suspected by a health care provider as a cause of death. The counting of confirmed and probable COVID-19–associated deaths also does not include deaths that are indirectly associated with, but caused by, SARS-CoV-2 infection
Quote:
(In NY)During March 11–May 2, 2020, a total of 32,107 deaths were reported to DOHMH; of these deaths, 24,172 (95% confidence interval = 22,980–25,364) were found to be in excess of the seasonal expected baseline. Included in the 24,172 deaths were 13,831 (57%) laboratory-confirmed COVID-19–associated deaths and 5,048 (21%) probable COVID-19–associated deaths, leaving 5,293 (22%) excess deaths that were not identified as either laboratory-confirmed or probable COVID-19–associated deaths.
CDC: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6919e5.htm
NY Times: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/28/us/coronavirus-death-toll-total.html
World Economics: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/05/covid-19-death-toll-misleading-all-cause-mortality-excess-deaths-pandemic/
Oh look, even Fox News: https://www.foxnews.com/science/more-than-15000-excess-deaths-linked-to-coronavirus-in-us
“I don’t know the exact percent that it’s higher, but certainly, it’s higher.” -Fauci today

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HamHead
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Re: The Covid death count is inflated [Re: feevers]
#26759705 - 06/20/20 11:43 AM (3 years, 7 months ago) |
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Quote:
feevers said: far more accurate method
And how often is influenza tested for?
Accuracy is good. I am so happy there is a common ground to met upon.
Testing info incoming. Accuracy in question. Links to articles, as always. And hey, I'm off all day today, so I can copy/paste this shit so you don't have to go through any trouble of clicking any links. Also, so that you may check my intigrety. Nothing out of context here, sharing whole articles.
Cool?
Enjoy.

https://www.modernhealthcare.com/technology/accuracy-covid-19-tests-still-largely-unknown
"June 14, 2020 09:21 PM Accuracy of COVID-19 tests still largely unknown Associated Press
How accurate are the coronavirus tests used in the U.S.?
Months into the outbreak, no one really knows how well many of the screening tests work, and experts at top medical centers say it is time to do the studies to find out.
When the new virus began spreading, the Food and Drug Administration used its emergency powers to OK scores of quickly devised tests, based mainly on a small number of lab studies showing they could successfully detect the virus.
That's very different from the large patient studies that can take weeks or months, which experts say are needed to provide a true sense of testing accuracy.
The FDA's speedy response came after it was initially criticized for delaying the launch of new tests during a crisis and after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention stumbled in getting its own test out to states.
But with the U.S. outbreak nearly certain to stretch on for months or even years, some experts want the FDA to demand better evidence of the tests' accuracy so doctors know how many infections might be missed.
There have been more than 2 million confirmed coronavirus cases in the U.S. and more than 115,000 deaths, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. Cases in nearly half of U.S. states are rising.
In recent weeks, preliminary findings have flagged potential problems with some COVID-19 tests, including one used daily at the White House. Faulty tests could leave many thousands of Americans with the incorrect assumption that they are virus-free, contributing to new flare-ups of the disease as communities reopen.
"In the beginning, the FDA was under a lot of pressure to get these tests onto the marketplace," said Dr. Steven Woloshin of Dartmouth College, who wrote about the issue in the New England Journal of Medicine last week. "But now that there are plenty of tests out there, it's time for them to raise the bar."
The FDA said in a statement that it has already asked multiple test makers to do follow-up accuracy studies, although it didn't say for how many of the more than 110 authorized screening tests. The agency also said it is tracking reports of problems. Accuracy has also been an issue with blood tests that look for signs of past infections.
No screening test is 100% accurate. So details on accuracy are routinely provided for tests of all types, including seasonal flu, hepatitis, HIV and cancers. For example, rapid flu tests are known to miss 20% or more of all cases, a factor doctors weigh when treating patients who have symptoms but test negative.
For now, most COVID-19 tests in the U.S. don't give data on real-world performance, including how often the tests falsely clear patients of infection or falsely detect the virus. That information is lacking for all but a few of the roughly 80 commercial screening tests available, according to an Associated Press review.
The government's emergency authorization process "requires a lower level of evidence," the agency said. Makers need only show that a test "may be effective" instead of the usual requirement to demonstrate "safety and effectiveness." They would have to meet that higher threshold once the U.S. government declares the emergency over.
Many of the commercial test makers submitted results from 60 samples, the minimum number required and mostly used lab-produced specimens of the virus. The FDA now recommends the use of nasal swabs or other real samples from people screened for coronavirus.
Experts say larger patient studies patients are needed to assess a test's true performance.
Lab testing bears little resemblance to actual — sometimes imperfect — conditions at hospitals, clinics and testing sites noted Dr. Robert Kaplan of Stanford University.
"You're testing people in parking lots, the patients themselves are extremely anxious and often unable to follow instructions," said Kaplan, a former associate director of the National Institutes of Health.
Kaplan and others say those differences could explain why some tests are not performing as expected.
Last month, the FDA warned doctors of a potential accuracy problem with Abbott Laboratories' rapid ID Now test, which delivers results in roughly 15 minutes. The test has been lauded by President Donald Trump and used to screen the president, his staff and visitors to the White House.
The FDA alert followed a preliminary report by New York University that found Abbott's test missed between a third to one-half of infections caught by a rival test in patients screened for the virus.
Abbott rejected the findings, saying the researchers did not follow the instructions for using its test. The company pointed to alternate patient studies, including its own, that have found the test successfully detects between 91% and 95% or more of virus cases when compared to other tests.
But similar problems with ID NOW's accuracy have been flagged in preliminary reports by researchers at Stanford University, Loyola University and the Cleveland Clinic.
For now, the FDA is requiring Abbott to conduct follow-up studies in several different patient groups.
The FDA's emergency standards "are still high but there is a significant difference in the body of work that what would go into a submission under the normal process," said Abbott vice president John Hackett. "Our normal process takes years to bring these out."
Requiring bigger studies of all coronavirus tests could provide valuable information, but it could also strain the FDA's already stretched staff and resources, said Dr. Daniel Schultz, former director of the FDA's medical device center.
Dr. Colin West of the Mayo Clinic worries doctors and patients have put too much confidence in the current crop of tests, when an unknown number of patients with COVID-19 are likely receiving false negative results.
Even a modest error rate can have grave consequences during an outbreak like COVID-19. West gives the example of a test that is 95% accurate at detecting the virus and is used on 1 million people. That would still result in 50,000 people being incorrectly told that they don't have the virus.
"The negative test does not mean that I'm off the hook," West said. "We just need to maintain that level of vigilance until we have a better sense of how good these tests really can be.""
--------
I added some extra u's and b's and i's in there. I hope no one minds.
What I get from this article, my own interpretation.
Test kits were rushed out with minimum proof of evidence of detecting viral loads.
Better test are available and should be integrated for more accuracy. I emphasized more because no test will ever be 100% effective at detecting Covid19 specifically.
Never mind a whole list of HxNx viruses, and other coronaviruses we have already been exposed to, like a common cold.
-------------------- The Italian researchers’ findings, published by the INT’s scientific magazine Tumori Journal, show 11.6% of 959 healthy volunteers enrolled in a lung cancer screening trial between September 2019 and March 2020 had developed coronavirus antibodies well before February. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-timing-idUSKBN27V0KF This online first version has been peer-reviewed, accepted and edited, but not formatted and finalized with corrections from authors and proofreaders https://www.icandecide.org/
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feevers


Registered: 12/28/10
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Re: The Covid death count is inflated [Re: HamHead]
#26759715 - 06/20/20 11:51 AM (3 years, 7 months ago) |
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You're right, as the CDC quote in my above post said, false-negatives are another reason deaths are almost certainly under reported.
I'm not sure the recent research, but I remember a month or two back they were attributing a lot of false-negatives to the testers not going deep enough with the swab, or people jerking back and the sample not being drawn from deep enough. I'm sure there's more to it though.
And if you're trying to argue that because false-negatives may be common, that false-positives are somehow inflating the death toll, you probably still haven't grasped the statistical significance concept. I can't help you there.
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HamHead
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Re: The Covid death count is inflated [Re: feevers]
#26759767 - 06/20/20 12:27 PM (3 years, 7 months ago) |
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If I get a test one day, am infected and I test negative and continue spreading, other people may become infected, as I understand it. They may not be getting tested themselves having no symptoms and otherwise no reason to be tested, infected and spreading. Therfore allowing for even more people to be infected, which makes me question if so many people are infected who have not been tested, why are we not still seeing thousands of deaths still, after protest and memorial day and reopens and similar events.
People aren't dying like they were in late winter, early spring. And I ask why. People can tout mask and social distancing all they want but a vapenado proves otherwise.
It is aerosol, in the air and people are in contact with many viruses, not just Covid. If an immune system is active and healthy, it catches small amounts of viruses, being so tiny and abundant, and develops immunity, naturally.
Why elders are more susceptible? Their immune systems are failing, naturally, as their body is dying. Add some other conditions, ie heart disease, diabetes, COPD, etc, etc, which western lifestyles are good at developing.
Where are we seeing most deaths occuring? 65+.
This virus is not giving a vast majority of people any issues, many reporting mild symptoms.
-------------------- The Italian researchers’ findings, published by the INT’s scientific magazine Tumori Journal, show 11.6% of 959 healthy volunteers enrolled in a lung cancer screening trial between September 2019 and March 2020 had developed coronavirus antibodies well before February. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-timing-idUSKBN27V0KF This online first version has been peer-reviewed, accepted and edited, but not formatted and finalized with corrections from authors and proofreaders https://www.icandecide.org/
Edited by HamHead (06/20/20 12:27 PM)
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