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feevers


Registered: 12/28/10
Posts: 8,546
Loc:
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Re: Viral outbreak in China - 2020 Global Pandemic [Re: morrowasted] 1
#26689884 - 05/23/20 07:40 AM (3 years, 8 months ago) |
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I'm not super convinced seasonality will play a large role right now. Theoretically having exposure to other similar coronaviruses which are already seasonal may actually result in antibodies which could improve Covid outcomes from what I've read, so peoples' immune responses may actually create better outcomes in the typical flu/cold seasons. That's all just theoretical though.
The strain thing makes sense to me from what Ive seen, I had a whole side of my family who spread it to each other get slammed by it, and have seen some nursing homes where almost everyone gets hit hard, then other homeless shelters and prisons where almost everyone is asymptomatic. If past recent exposure to other coronaviruses plays a role in antibody defense though, it could be possible that those places with asymptomatic cases had a simple cold go through them months ago and were somewhat protected by the antibodies from the cold if it was structurally similar enough to cov2.
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bodhisatta 
Smurf real estate agent


Registered: 04/30/13
Posts: 61,890
Loc: Milky way
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Re: Viral outbreak in China - 2020 Global Pandemic [Re: morrowasted]
#26689889 - 05/23/20 07:43 AM (3 years, 8 months ago) |
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I lived off lake Houston for 6 years. A man made lake. Houston is fucking weird as hell.
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Amanita86
OTD Keymaster


Registered: 09/26/12
Posts: 89,464
Loc: hades
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Re: Viral outbreak in China - 2020 Global Pandemic [Re: feevers]
#26689891 - 05/23/20 07:43 AM (3 years, 8 months ago) |
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Prison is probably like steroids for your immune system.
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Orange clock, pencil "They threw me off the hay truck about noon..."
*Mark 15:34  Gam zeh ya’avor...
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morrowasted
Worldwide Stepper


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Re: Viral outbreak in China - 2020 Global Pandemic [Re: Amanita86]
#26689901 - 05/23/20 07:52 AM (3 years, 8 months ago) |
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I love it here.
Feevers, most other coronaviruses are seasonal so I feel there is decent reason to suspect this one will be too.
Quote:
When the study started surveilling participants all year round, the researchers found that only 2.5% of human coronavirus respiratory infections occurred in the months between June and September.
https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/common-coronaviruses-appear-to-be-highly-seasonal#8-years-of-data
And yeah, since other viruses have more and less virulent strains so it would be odd if that werent the case for this one
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bodhisatta 
Smurf real estate agent


Registered: 04/30/13
Posts: 61,890
Loc: Milky way
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Re: Viral outbreak in China - 2020 Global Pandemic [Re: morrowasted]
#26689909 - 05/23/20 07:56 AM (3 years, 8 months ago) |
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Houston is pretty nice but holy fucking bugs.
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feevers


Registered: 12/28/10
Posts: 8,546
Loc:
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Re: Viral outbreak in China - 2020 Global Pandemic [Re: Amanita86] 1
#26689911 - 05/23/20 07:56 AM (3 years, 8 months ago) |
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Quote:
Amanita86 said: Prison is probably like steroids for your immune system.
It's funny because so many pseudoscience pushers right now are preaching things like nutrition and supplements and vitamin D to save you from covid. Then I see a 96% asymptomatic rate in 3000+ infected prisoners where they get almost 0 vitamin D, no supplements, and eat piles of empty carbs. Then the same at some homeless shelters. There's no one single "immune system", being healthy is great and obesity and diabetes and such are definitely linked to bad outcomes, but sometimes a stronger immune response in one area can actually even make things worse. This virus just seems like a roll of the dice for everyone who gets it, but for whatever reason is better or worse in certain clusters that get infected.
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morrowasted
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Re: Viral outbreak in China - 2020 Global Pandemic [Re: feevers]
#26689919 - 05/23/20 07:58 AM (3 years, 8 months ago) |
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Quote:
It's funny because so many pseudoscience pushers right now are preaching things like nutrition and supplements and vitamin D to save you from covid. Then I see a 96% asymptomatic rate in 3000+ infected prisoners where they get almost 0 vitamin D, no supplements, and eat piles of empty carbs. Then the same at some homeless shelters. There's no one single "immune system", being healthy is great and obesity and diabetes and such are definitely linked to bad outcomes, but sometimes a stronger immune response in one area can actually make things far worse. This virus just seems like a roll of the dice for everyone who gets it, but for whatever reason is better or worse in certain clusters that get infected.
yessss I am so sick of hearing people talk about vitamin d. That was such a dumb study and the correlation is totally spurious. Vitamin d levels decrease as your organs fail, it is no surprise that people with poor outcomes presented with low vitamin d levels
I do take zinc specifically for virus prevention right now though. And i take vitamin d for other things
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mushboy
modboy



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Posts: 32,401
Loc: where?
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Re: Viral outbreak in China - 2020 Global Pandemic [Re: pirate-blues]
#26689931 - 05/23/20 08:09 AM (3 years, 8 months ago) |
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Quote:
pirate-blues said: Sorry to backtrack but...say again?
What's the difference? 10-15 years of rigorous training and education, several ethical and legal obligations...are we really going over this? What an absurd comparison to make.
When you dont fully express an opinion on the pub and everyone jumps to a conclusion.
I was going to disagree with koods thinking you need to hold doctors accountable. I say hold people accountable. If you openly declare how stupid you are then maybe you dont get told the fire will burn you. Let them find out the hard way.
...but before that could happen an opinion I wasnt even making had to be ridiculed first so I gave up. Lost in translation is a rosey assessment. I'd say deliberately attacked since no effort was made to clear anything up.
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feevers


Registered: 12/28/10
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Re: Viral outbreak in China - 2020 Global Pandemic [Re: morrowasted]
#26689937 - 05/23/20 08:13 AM (3 years, 8 months ago) |
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Quote:
morrowasted said:
Feevers, most other coronaviruses are seasonal so I feel there is decent reason to suspect this one will be too.
Quote:
When the study started surveilling participants all year round, the researchers found that only 2.5% of human coronavirus respiratory infections occurred in the months between June and September.
Did the other viruses start out seasonal though, or become seasonal over time? From the limited amount I've read when a novel virus comes through it often just churns and burns initially then it fizzles and becomes more seasonal after something like herd immunity gets achieved in the populations it hit. Definitely not my area of expertise though. April and May typically aren't really flu/cold season months in Mass, but even with a full shutdown we're at 100k cases and 5000+ deaths in that time. It's been 70-80 degrees here, most people staying home/taking precautions, and the spread has plateaued but is still going strong.
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morrowasted
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Re: Viral outbreak in China - 2020 Global Pandemic [Re: feevers]
#26689944 - 05/23/20 08:20 AM (3 years, 8 months ago) |
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Hm, yeah I didn't know that, but it looks like that is right.
We are well and truly fucked until there is an effective vaccine, gentlemen and ladies. Our best hope is perhaps that some of the strains cause weak illnesses like other coronaviruses and those are the ones that end up getting a foothold during each cycle.
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cannabinated



Registered: 01/03/13
Posts: 14,743
Loc: Outside
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Re: Viral outbreak in China - 2020 Global Pandemic [Re: pirate-blues]
#26689946 - 05/23/20 08:23 AM (3 years, 8 months ago) |
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Quote:
pirate-blues said:
Quote:
mushboy said: My point is, you can find tons of opinions but at the end of the day it's just another person telling you something. People need to make decisions themselves. If they wanna take trump's miracle drug fucking let them. I hope they all take it.
Doctors over prescribe shit all day why is this any different?
Sorry to backtrack but...say again?
What's the difference? 10-15 years of rigorous training and education, several ethical and legal obligations...are we really going over this? What an absurd comparison to make.
hes got a point... they are only as ethically obligated to the extent the legal system enforces it. And the vast majority sell drugs for kickbacks.
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cannabinated



Registered: 01/03/13
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Re: Viral outbreak in China - 2020 Global Pandemic [Re: cannabinated] 1
#26689949 - 05/23/20 08:24 AM (3 years, 8 months ago) |
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sackler family values
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morrowasted
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Re: Viral outbreak in China - 2020 Global Pandemic [Re: cannabinated]
#26689952 - 05/23/20 08:27 AM (3 years, 8 months ago) |
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Quote:
they are only as ethically obligated to the extent the legal system enforces it
No, they're only legally obligated to the extent that the legal system enforces it. The ethical obligation of doctors is just an oath they swear. For the most part, doctors working in hospitals are not the kind of person you're describing. There are definitely some shady primary care docs, endocrinologists, sports medicine docs etc out there looking to make a quick buck at the expense of others but I think that is actually a minority.
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cannabinated



Registered: 01/03/13
Posts: 14,743
Loc: Outside
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Re: Viral outbreak in China - 2020 Global Pandemic [Re: morrowasted]
#26689954 - 05/23/20 08:28 AM (3 years, 8 months ago) |
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so it doesnt matter kinda like i said
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cannabinated



Registered: 01/03/13
Posts: 14,743
Loc: Outside
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Re: Viral outbreak in China - 2020 Global Pandemic [Re: cannabinated]
#26689959 - 05/23/20 08:31 AM (3 years, 8 months ago) |
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Can you run a practice inside a hospital?
Anyone who has their own office is doing it 4 teh breads
its way easier to find a shitty physician cause those are the only ive been in contact with.
I do agree it is the other way around in hospitals but they have their own system of money making.
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feevers


Registered: 12/28/10
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Re: Viral outbreak in China - 2020 Global Pandemic [Re: morrowasted]
#26689966 - 05/23/20 08:37 AM (3 years, 8 months ago) |
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Quote:
morrowasted said: Hm, yeah I didn't know that, but it looks like that is right.
We are well and truly fucked until there is an effective vaccine, gentlemen and ladies. Our best hope is perhaps that some of the strains cause weak illnesses like other coronaviruses and those are the ones that end up getting a foothold during each cycle.
It's weird to me that no one is really talking about how this ends. How likely is it that we can develop vaccines that are effective with all mutations of it, and year after year? We have decades of working with the flu and still can't make a consistently effective vaccine. How long will the antibodies last? Could you get reinfected next year after being sick this year? I think the consensus is "probably maybe" right now.
It really reminds me of the beginning of the pandemic, when almost no one was talking about what we'll do when the virus hit the US. Anyone with common sense could see it was inevitable, but society collectively decided that maybe if we don't think about it we'll get lucky and avoid the inevitable.
Yea hopefully a vaccine comes out and can get life back to normal for 2020/2021 at least. This is really getting old, not just the limits but how much it's stressing people out and exposing peoples' shittiness in so many areas. I have friends and family I completely lost respect for based on how they behaved during all this. Had a cousin literally yelling at my other cousin who was hospitalized saying she was faking it .
Yea hopefully the mutations that stick around and come back seasonally are like you said and more similar to lesser coronaviruses, but I definitely don't think most of the common colds started off with this big of a bang, so who knows the trajectory.
These are weird times, it'll be interesting to see what society looks like a year from now.
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InfiniteDreams


Registered: 10/25/19
Posts: 1,224
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Re: Viral outbreak in China - 2020 Global Pandemic [Re: feevers] 1
#26690003 - 05/23/20 08:58 AM (3 years, 8 months ago) |
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There is no guarantee of there ever being a vaccine. Some day we may be forced to admit that man is mortal and life is not without risk.
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feevers


Registered: 12/28/10
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Loc:
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Re: Viral outbreak in China - 2020 Global Pandemic [Re: InfiniteDreams]
#26690007 - 05/23/20 09:02 AM (3 years, 8 months ago) |
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Quote:
Michael Mina, an infectious diseases epidemiologist at Harvard’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health, thinks achieving sterilizing immunity with a vaccine will not be possible for Covid-19. Experience with human coronaviruses — and with multiple pathogens that cause colds — shows immunity that develops after infection with respiratory tract infections is not lifelong. In some cases, the duration is measured in months, not years.
“If [infection with] natural coronaviruses doesn’t do it, I don’t think that we should necessarily expect or have the anticipation that we’ll be able to get there with the vaccine,” said Mina, who is also associate medical director of clinical microbiology at Boston’s Brigham and Women’s Hospital.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/05/22/the-world-needs-covid-19-vaccines-it-may-also-be-overestimating-their-power/

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morrowasted
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Re: Viral outbreak in China - 2020 Global Pandemic [Re: InfiniteDreams]
#26690010 - 05/23/20 09:06 AM (3 years, 8 months ago) |
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It would be interesting to find out if other coronaviruses used to be deadlier to humans. Who knows how long they have been around?
I suspect there will be a vaccine ready in under a year. It may only confer immunity for a year like the flu vaccine but hopefully will be more effective. It would be nice to have available for older folks and healthcare workers at least
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The Blind Ass
Bodhi



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Re: Viral outbreak in China - 2020 Global Pandemic [Re: cannabinated]
#26690011 - 05/23/20 09:06 AM (3 years, 8 months ago) |
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Quote:
cannabinated said:
Anyone who has their own office is doing it 4 teh breads .
Nope... wrong.
-------------------- Give me Liberty caps -or- give me Death caps
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