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Jokeshopbeard
Humble Student

Registered: 11/30/11
Posts: 26,088
Loc: Deep in the system
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [Re: bodhisatta] 2
#26685755 - 05/21/20 01:55 PM (3 years, 8 months ago) |
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Quote:
bodhisatta said: Millions were supposed to be dead already, said one particular source that I'm taking as gospel.
-------------------- Let it be seen that you are nothing. And in knowing that you are nothing... there is nothing to lose, there is nothing to gain. What can happen to you? Something can happen to the body, but it will either heal or it won't. What's the big deal? Let life knock you to bits. Let life take you apart. Let life destroy you. It will only destroy what you are not. --Jac O'keeffe
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bodhisatta 
Smurf real estate agent


Registered: 04/30/13
Posts: 61,890
Loc: Milky way
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Said every model that came out. Find me a model that has been reasonably accurate published by a well retarded source.
I'm going to lake Geneva this weekend. To party with the Illinois governor who locked his state down but wants to do the I'm a Thai king thing
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Jokeshopbeard
Humble Student

Registered: 11/30/11
Posts: 26,088
Loc: Deep in the system
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [Re: bodhisatta]
#26685766 - 05/21/20 02:00 PM (3 years, 8 months ago) |
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Unfortunately, I am in the 98% of people that you're better at researching than so I must bow my head in shame and admit that I cannot possibly perform such a task.
At least, not in any way that is up to your epic and legendary standards.
-------------------- Let it be seen that you are nothing. And in knowing that you are nothing... there is nothing to lose, there is nothing to gain. What can happen to you? Something can happen to the body, but it will either heal or it won't. What's the big deal? Let life knock you to bits. Let life take you apart. Let life destroy you. It will only destroy what you are not. --Jac O'keeffe
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natedawgnow
Rocky mountain hood rat



Registered: 02/09/15
Posts: 8,939
Loc: ation
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Quote:
Jokeshopbeard said: My friend in England just sent me a video of his daughter (along with his whole street) clapping for the front line workers as they do every Thursday at 8pm.
I tell ya, it was so heartwarming to see that kind of solidarity in action it nearly brought tears to my eyes.
I've become too desensitized by all the squabbling in the USA.
Depends where you are.
Here in colorado every night at 8pm people howl like wolves as a sign of solidarity.
It actually gets pretty loud sometimes. Kinda silly but it's crazy to see the domino effect that happens. Damn near everyone on the street behind me does it.
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morrowasted
Worldwide Stepper


Registered: 10/30/09
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The mortality rate, how to address the situation from a logistical standpoint, and how to behave personally are all different things.
In case you had not noticed I am a bit more centrist with respect to the logistics than you might expect for a health care worker. In the beginning, the shutdown was absolutely necessary to create time and space to assess the situation, make plans, order supplies, reorganize staffing and hospital units, etc. We have accomplished that. Now we have people dying of pulmonary embolisms at home because they cant get a hip replacement and theyre stuck lying in bed for months. People with cancer progressing because they couldnt get biopsied. Homicide is starting to increase here due to economic and political restlessness. There are reasons to think reopening the economy right now in a measured way is the best course of action other than "I dont care about people dying."
I am not an expert in such things but I will be the first to admit that there are medical personnel on all sides of the political spectrum and that support for reopening the economy is gaining traction.
Having said that, more people are going to die, and many many more people who do not die are going to be sicker than they ever believed possible. If you dont want to be one of them, I suggest you try to protect yourself.
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feevers


Registered: 12/28/10
Posts: 8,546
Loc:
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Apparently my mom has fluid in her lungs at the moment. She's doing well but got herself checked since her legs have been turning blue and she totally lost her appetite.
She got slammed with something back in early February that she's been pretty convinced was COVID, but I thought that was unlikely since it was so early. Her doctors are leaning in that direction though, they think it may be an after-effect of the virus, they're running tests and will be doing an antibody test in 2 weeks to verify.
Pretty sure she'll be fine since it doesn't look like anything is infected, but it's definitely messing with her oxygen. We're all hoping it was COVID because it was like a domino effect of the rest of the family getting sick after she did, so it'd be great if we all have the antibodies. If I get the all clear I really want to volunteer at a nursing home or something.
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lifeiswhatyoumake
Sake Psychic sig


Registered: 09/30/11
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [Re: bodhisatta] 1
#26685779 - 05/21/20 02:09 PM (3 years, 8 months ago) |
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Quote:
bodhisatta said:I'll go ahead and sound like a pompous egotistical dick but my research skills are better than 98% of people here.
In your dreams. You are absolutely horrible at backing up your claims with scientific evidence. Every time I've had a scientific debate with you your sources don't support your claims. You must be new to researching.
-------------------- Check out my new psytrance track "Sake Psychic": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1xyEPGfiDrA ;
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morrowasted
Worldwide Stepper


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Re: Viral outbreak in China [Re: bodhisatta]
#26685796 - 05/21/20 02:17 PM (3 years, 8 months ago) |
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Quote:
bodhisatta said: Said every model that came out. Find me a model that has been reasonably accurate published by a well retarded source.
I'm going to lake Geneva this weekend. To party with the Illinois governor who locked his state down but wants to do the I'm a Thai king thing
millions of people will die globally before this is over. The original projections i remember for covid19 estimated 300k deaths in the usa this year if we had tried to go herd immunity route. I dont know what models msm was using though i was just doing personal research. Which models were you looking at? Why did you choose to focus on those particular models? Or did you let the msm choose the mosel for you
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morrowasted
Worldwide Stepper


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Re: Viral outbreak in China [Re: morrowasted] 2
#26685801 - 05/21/20 02:20 PM (3 years, 8 months ago) |
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We got one guy wanting to volunteer in a warzone while his mom is sick and another guy who cant be bothered to wear a mask
Sending good vibes to your family, pb's family, and JSBs friend
Bodhi, believe me when i say this is one lesson in humility you want to learn from the mistakes of other people rather than your own
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tyrannicalrex
Strange R



Registered: 04/24/03
Posts: 38,331
Loc: subtropics
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [Re: feevers]
#26685805 - 05/21/20 02:21 PM (3 years, 8 months ago) |
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Damn! So many moms and relatives having health troubles. Hang in there feeves.
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Jokeshopbeard
Humble Student

Registered: 11/30/11
Posts: 26,088
Loc: Deep in the system
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [Re: feevers]
#26685813 - 05/21/20 02:23 PM (3 years, 8 months ago) |
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Quote:
feevers said: She got slammed with something back in early February that she's been pretty convinced was COVID, but I thought that was unlikely since it was so early.
Is it that surprising that COVID could have been hitting people as early as January/February?
I've heard what seems to be good arguments on both sides for that one, so kinda stuck in the middle with it.
Hoping your mum clears up soon mate.
-------------------- Let it be seen that you are nothing. And in knowing that you are nothing... there is nothing to lose, there is nothing to gain. What can happen to you? Something can happen to the body, but it will either heal or it won't. What's the big deal? Let life knock you to bits. Let life take you apart. Let life destroy you. It will only destroy what you are not. --Jac O'keeffe
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morrowasted
Worldwide Stepper


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I find the arguments that you probably didnt have it if you were sick before late february more convincing. Obviously it was around but the math doesnt add up like koods had mentioned. The only way i can imagine it was around longer is if it started somewhere with a lower r0 like here and then moved up north later but that makes no intuitive sense. Simplest explanation is that it started late nov and came stateside late December or January earliest
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Jokeshopbeard
Humble Student

Registered: 11/30/11
Posts: 26,088
Loc: Deep in the system
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I caught something that had all the symptoms on a flight from Boston -> London in January. Took me about a month to get fully right from it too.
But obviously, I don't just wanna buy into the a convenient explanation, because life is never that simple.
-------------------- Let it be seen that you are nothing. And in knowing that you are nothing... there is nothing to lose, there is nothing to gain. What can happen to you? Something can happen to the body, but it will either heal or it won't. What's the big deal? Let life knock you to bits. Let life take you apart. Let life destroy you. It will only destroy what you are not. --Jac O'keeffe
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feevers


Registered: 12/28/10
Posts: 8,546
Loc:
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Quote:
Jokeshopbeard said:
Quote:
feevers said: She got slammed with something back in early February that she's been pretty convinced was COVID, but I thought that was unlikely since it was so early.
Is it that surprising that COVID could have been hitting people as early as January/February?
I've heard what seems to be good arguments on both sides for that one, so kinda stuck in the middle with it.
Hoping your mum clears up soon mate.
Thanks man (and trex too).
Back when we had talked about it, COVID was thought to have hit Boston at conference in early March. My mom is retired and doesn't get out much so I figured it was almost impossible she'd have gotten it before that. My dad takes public transportation every day though and works in the city, and they're now linking cases back to Feb 1.
It may be wishful thinking all around to think it's COVID though since if not she's extra high risk at the moment if she gets infected. She was a 30+ year ER nurse and hasn't been sick for decades though, so the timeline and her opinion on it make me think it very well may have been COVID now. 2 weeks later my wife got the "flu" for the first time ever and then not long after I got vomiting followed by 4 days of fever and chest pain/dizzyness after any activity.
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morrowasted
Worldwide Stepper


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Re: Viral outbreak in China [Re: feevers]
#26685852 - 05/21/20 02:41 PM (3 years, 8 months ago) |
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You may have seen this- i posted it a while back- but i found it pretty convincing.
Quote:
Was my Sickness in November/December/January CoVID-19
The data would say no. It appears the virus first jumped into humans in ~November of 2019. The first person that we know was infected with this virus was an 81 year old Chinese man with no links to the now famous Wuhan wet-market. 10 days later, a seafood merchant became sick. By December 16th there were 41 cases of a disease with unknown etiology (cause), more than half of those people sick had a link to the market. Thus, the wet market was NOT the origins of the outbreak, possibly just a site of a super-spreading event.
Over the next 2 weeks, scientist from the Wuhan Institute of Virology (and others) reported people with a severe pneumonia being admitted to ICU.
Doctors started sampling bronchoalveolar fluid on December 24th to try and isolate the infectious agent. By December 30th, the first partial genome sequence of the virus was released internally to the Chinese CDC, it wrongly classifying the virus as SARS (the 2003 version). Worried doctors started sharing this information privately.
By January 1st 2020, only 250 or so people had the infection. On the same day, the WHO and US CDC Director were briefed by the Chinese CDC director about a severe but unknown viral outbreak.
On January 3rd, China formally notified the USA of the outbreak.
On January 5th, the Chinese CDC submitted the complete genome of the virus isolated from sick patients.
From isolation of an unknown virus to a complete genomic sequence was less than 2 weeks.
In the period, January 1st through the 15th. There were a lot of mixed messages and unknowns about the virus and how it was transmitted. At this stage only 2 people had died, and they were not certain of human-to-human transmission yet.
On January 16th a molecular diagnostic test was developed by German Scientists and adopted worldwide, including by WHO.
It appears the first case of this new virus entered the USA on or around January 15th. It is estimated that ~45 people brought the virus into the USA between Jan 15th-30th, most were dead end infections (they fizzled out), and only a few of those infected people (~9) started outbreaks in the USA (Washington, California, and New York). This information is based off the genetic sequencing and analysis being run on Nextstrain.org.
Countries around the world, started confirming cases in late January (Australia, Malaysia, Japan, Hong Kong, UK, Russia, basically, everywhere that looked).
First cases in the USA were diagnosed in the last week of January.
By January 30th, the 10th update from WHO was given, declaring the outbreak an PHEIC (Public Health Emergency of International Concern). This new virus joined other active PHEIC's; Ebola and Polio. The WHO designated that COVID-19 risk to the world was high.
January 31st: US closed its borders to people who had visited China in the past 14 days. This definitely helped stop more seeding events from Mainland China.
Late January into February, the outbreak in China escalated, taking until mid-March to control.
Basically, we know with a high degree of certainty that the outbreak originated from a single spillover event in China, in November, it spread at low levels until early December, and then hit a sentinel population mid December resulting in hospitalizations. The virus, through movement of people, moved from Wuhan to the rest of the world over the next 30 days. The initial seeding event in the USA was around January 15th. With many more seeding events occurring in February from infected people coming from Europe.
Bottom line, nope, your sickness last year was something else.
I have good reasons to suspect that Healthcare workers would have started getting sick in larger numbers sooner if it had been spreading significantly earlier
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koods
Ribbit



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Re: Viral outbreak in China [Re: bodhisatta]
#26685855 - 05/21/20 02:42 PM (3 years, 8 months ago) |
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Looks like infection rates are much lower than people have been expecting. No where near as many asymptomatics as people have been counting on. In most of the hard hit countries about 2- 5% of the population has been infected.
https://twitter.com/k_g_andersen/status/1263319945003143169?s=21
--------------------
NotSheekle said “if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”
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morrowasted
Worldwide Stepper


Registered: 10/30/09
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Just checked ppe stats. Medical center is currently using 499k gloves, 100k surgical masks and 5k n95s per day . Apparently no concerns abour shortages though
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pirate-blues


Registered: 10/15/12
Posts: 13,695
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [Re: feevers]
#26685905 - 05/21/20 02:59 PM (3 years, 8 months ago) |
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Quote:
feevers said: Apparently my mom has fluid in her lungs at the moment. She's doing well but got herself checked since her legs have been turning blue and she totally lost her appetite.
She got slammed with something back in early February that she's been pretty convinced was COVID, but I thought that was unlikely since it was so early. Her doctors are leaning in that direction though, they think it may be an after-effect of the virus, they're running tests and will be doing an antibody test in 2 weeks to verify.
Pretty sure she'll be fine since it doesn't look like anything is infected, but it's definitely messing with her oxygen. We're all hoping it was COVID because it was like a domino effect of the rest of the family getting sick after she did, so it'd be great if we all have the antibodies. If I get the all clear I really want to volunteer at a nursing home or something.
eeek, yikes. I'm hoping it's this stupid dumb ass viruses last rally so that she can get on with kicking it's ass and your family can move on with their lives. Seems like it would be a nice feeling.
I'm thinking about taking an antibody test myself, in lieu of my grandmother's apparent lack of symptoms, but the only thing I seem to have been dealing with the past couple months has been allergies. It's possible I could've gotten exposed to it earlier, but I doubt it. I feel like every single person I talk to about it thinks they've already had it.
Edited by pirate-blues (05/21/20 03:12 PM)
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morrowasted
Worldwide Stepper


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I highly doubt that I have had it. 
My sister is getting tested tomorrow. All nursing home residents and stafd must be per state mandate. If anyone comes up positive it is gonna be a huge ordeal gettinf organized. Facilities cant admit anyone for a month if they have covid19 cases
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pirate-blues


Registered: 10/15/12
Posts: 13,695
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I remember you tested negative, that actually made me calm down a little bit when I was worried about my dad catching it while going in for xrays.
Ever think of getting an antibody test just to rule out a false negative or timing issue? It really ought to be free or completely covered for healthworkers, though I doubt that's the case.
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