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Offlinekoods
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [Re: morrowasted]
    #26666191 - 05/12/20 10:04 AM (3 years, 9 months ago)

This is a month old but when the Houston region was reporting 950 cases there were 996 people hospitalized with covid or suspected. I would be wary of any data from Texas tbh

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1175291


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NotSheekle said
“if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”


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InvisibleJokeshopbeard
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [Re: koods] * 1
    #26666198 - 05/12/20 10:10 AM (3 years, 9 months ago)

Quote:

koods said:
I would be wary of any data from Texas tbh





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Let it be seen that you are nothing. And in knowing that you are nothing... there is nothing to lose, there is nothing to gain. What can happen to you? Something can happen to the body, but it will either heal or it won't. What's the big deal? Let life knock you to bits. Let life take you apart. Let life destroy you. It will only destroy what you are not.
--Jac O'keeffe


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Offlinemorrowasted
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [Re: koods]
    #26666201 - 05/12/20 10:11 AM (3 years, 9 months ago)

I dunno man we have a pretty badass stats board related to medical care for covid 19

https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-updates/tmc-daily-new-covid-19-hospitalizations/

they even have the ventilator use stats publicly available

https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-updates/tmc-ventilator-capacity-modeling/


I realize general mortality outside of a hospital is something different but I'm not exactly wary of our overall stat-keeping abilities just because there was some lagtime in communication during the surge


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Offlinemorrowasted
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [Re: morrowasted]
    #26666234 - 05/12/20 10:28 AM (3 years, 9 months ago)

note that the models predict if had not implemented social distancing we wouldve needed more than 4x more vents than we have.

at present we have far more than we need


early distancing works


edit: damn I'm glad I rediscovered this page. currently doing 7000 PCR tests/day, projecting 18k/day in 4-6 weeks

wish I could find what the typical ICU beds are. 163/965 (17%) people in ICU right now right now are there for COVID19


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InvisiblebodhisattaMDiscordReddit
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [Re: morrowasted] * 1
    #26666242 - 05/12/20 10:31 AM (3 years, 9 months ago)

One of my employee's grandfather just died. They're ruled it covid without a test. He was just old.


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:whyyy:


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Offlinemorrowasted
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [Re: bodhisatta]
    #26666245 - 05/12/20 10:34 AM (3 years, 9 months ago)

Quote:

bodhisatta said:
One of my employee's grandfather just died. They're ruled it covid without a test. He was just old.



they may have given him a preliminary diagnosis of COVID but if so they will test on autopsy and if negative it will not be ruled a COVID19 death

edit: unless he was hospitalized and died in the hospital, then it is POSSIBLE he was diagnosed on the basis of S&S then died before a test was performed (seems very unlikely). in any case it's easy to diagnose if you have access to a CT scanner and a lab to run blood. the related imaging and biomarkers are obvious indicators of COVID19 and testing a body you've already diagnosed with COVID19 when they obviously had it would be pointless. I don't think you could even justify it as an expenditure. but if someone dies suddenly at home they can justify testing for contact tracing and epidemiological purposes. if the diagnosis was made they will do that for the dead patient, test or no test


Edited by morrowasted (05/12/20 10:44 AM)


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Offlinekoods
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [Re: bodhisatta] * 6
    #26666257 - 05/12/20 10:42 AM (3 years, 9 months ago)

Quote:

bodhisatta said:
One of my employee's grandfather just died. They're ruled it covid without a test. He was just old.




Since you’re wrong about everything else. I think we can assume it was covid


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NotSheekle said
“if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”


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OfflineRebeccaBlack
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [Re: morrowasted]
    #26666262 - 05/12/20 10:44 AM (3 years, 9 months ago)

So, how is the situation in the USA? Has stuff reopened?

Here, since the lockdown in the inforced unless you are travelling between cities (you can get a 1000$ fine if you don't have an essential worker permit, but that is easily forged).

A month ago, the streets felt so empty and gave that 4am feeling. Now, everything is packed and the COVID has never been so rampant.

I also have a rising feeling of 'fuck it'. I will wash my hands, wear a mask, but I want to see my family.


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Offlinemorrowasted
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [Re: RebeccaBlack]
    #26666270 - 05/12/20 10:52 AM (3 years, 9 months ago)

Most businesses are open at 25% capacity. Everyone is supposed to wear masks. Probably 75% of people do. Gyms and salons reopen next Monday I believe.

The fatigue is wearing on everyone, even me. I'm about ready to just get the damn virus and get it over with but so far that hasn't happened.


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OfflineHamHead
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [Re: koods]
    #26666276 - 05/12/20 10:56 AM (3 years, 9 months ago)

Quote:

koods said:
Quote:

Hunter hunter said:
I heard there are three strains.  A,B,C..  I think A appeared on the west coast in November.  A is less deadly.  They think since some areas had the less deadly virus come through earlier, that gave an immunity to the other more serious phenotypes. 

    I’ve been saying all along my group of people all got sick late last year.  Deepest cough I’d ever had.

  I bought a mask with yellow flowers made by a local.  I can’t be that asshole walking around “unprotected” in the grocery store any longer.  Well at least in town.  Country folk don’t seem to give a shit yet.

    The government seriously needs to step up and send some funds to the medical community who have not been furloughed.  They should not have any student debt after this bullshit.  And any medical bills they have should be wiped clean.  As well as free healthcare and zero deductible etc.


The dr.s aren’t doing shit..  they are letting the nurses, med assistant’s do all the b.s..  as they sit on telehealth charging 300$ for 5-10 min..  I’d like to see an actual Dr.  that is performing the nasal swabs...  Maybe morrow knows one.




Where are you getting this idea the virus was circulating in the us im November. That is absurd.






Oh jeez, look everyone, another youtube video.

At least she's hot!

:creepylurker:


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The Italian researchers’ findings, published by the INT’s scientific magazine Tumori Journal, show 11.6% of 959 healthy volunteers enrolled in a lung cancer screening trial between September 2019 and March 2020 had developed coronavirus antibodies well before February.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-timing-idUSKBN27V0KF

This online first version has been peer-reviewed, accepted and edited,  but not formatted and finalized with corrections from authors and proofreaders

https://www.icandecide.org/


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Offlinekoods
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [Re: RebeccaBlack]
    #26666287 - 05/12/20 11:01 AM (3 years, 9 months ago)

Quote:

Daijo said:
So, how is the situation in the USA? Has stuff reopened?

Here, since the lockdown in the inforced unless you are travelling between cities (you can get a 1000$ fine if you don't have an essential worker permit, but that is easily forged).

A month ago, the streets felt so empty and gave that 4am feeling. Now, everything is packed and the COVID has never been so rampant.

I also have a rising feeling of 'fuck it'. I will wash my hands, wear a mask, but I want to see my family.




No change really. Some states have partially reopened but data shows almost nobody is taking advantage of it. States like Texas and Georgia are seeing about 5-15% of their normal pre covid business activity in restaurants



Until people feel safe they aren’t going to start going out in public in numbers, open economy or not


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NotSheekle said
“if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”


Edited by koods (05/12/20 11:06 AM)


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Offlinemorrowasted
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [Re: koods]
    #26666296 - 05/12/20 11:05 AM (3 years, 9 months ago)

Eh, I'm not ready to rule out the possibility that it's been circulating longer than we realize. It wasn't a big deal until late winter though, nobody can argue that. Some people may have died here and there and been ruled flu deaths but if it had been a significant phenomenon we would've started seeing health care workers getting sick sooner because people wouldn't have been PPEing up properly.


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Offlinekoods
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [Re: morrowasted] * 1
    #26666311 - 05/12/20 11:13 AM (3 years, 9 months ago)

You simply cannot have had community spread in December without seeing tens of thousands of cases by early March. We know without mitigation cases were doubling every three days. It’s not mathematically possible.


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NotSheekle said
“if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”


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Offlinemorrowasted
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [Re: koods]
    #26666321 - 05/12/20 11:19 AM (3 years, 9 months ago)

we might have had tens of thousands of cases by early march :shrug: to assume that  wasnt the case you'd have to extrapolate from CFR estimates, but that's like.. the opposite of how those stats work. If the CFR proves to be something more like 0.6% which is what the original south korean epidemiological survey indicated then the actual number of people who have gotten COVID19 is far greater than the number that have been diagnosed


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Offlinekoods
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [Re: morrowasted]
    #26666359 - 05/12/20 11:42 AM (3 years, 9 months ago)

If you’re missing 9/10 cases in the official count, that only moves the date of original spread up by 10 days or so. The beauty of exponential growth analysis is that it is extremely sensitive to the starting conditions. If you’re doubling every 3 days, then it only takes 10 days to get ten times the number of cases.


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NotSheekle said
“if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”


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Offlineimachavel
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [Re: koods]
    #26666389 - 05/12/20 11:52 AM (3 years, 9 months ago)

Quote:

koods said:
Quote:

Daijo said:
So, how is the situation in the USA? Has stuff reopened?

Here, since the lockdown in the inforced unless you are travelling between cities (you can get a 1000$ fine if you don't have an essential worker permit, but that is easily forged).

A month ago, the streets felt so empty and gave that 4am feeling. Now, everything is packed and the COVID has never been so rampant.

I also have a rising feeling of 'fuck it'. I will wash my hands, wear a mask, but I want to see my family.




No change really. Some states have partially reopened but data shows almost nobody is taking advantage of it. States like Texas and Georgia are seeing about 5-15% of their normal pre covid business activity in restaurants



Until people feel safe they aren’t going to start going out in public in numbers, open economy or not




Then probably everyone can stop worrying about a wave of extra deaths. I assume the same thing will happen when airports reopen, very few passengers. Whenever that will be


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:kingcrankey: I did not say to edit my signature soulidarity! Now forever I will never remember what I said about understanding the secrets of the universe by paying attention to subtleties!

:facepalm: I'm never giving you the password again. Jerk


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Offlineimachavel
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [Re: morrowasted]
    #26666399 - 05/12/20 11:56 AM (3 years, 9 months ago)

Quote:

morrowasted said:
we might have had tens of thousands of cases by early march :shrug: to assume that  wasnt the case you'd have to extrapolate from CFR estimates, but that's like.. the opposite of how those stats work. If the CFR proves to be something more like 0.6% which is what the original south korean epidemiological survey indicated then the actual number of people who have gotten COVID19 is far greater than the number that have been diagnosed




Which means less of a mortality rate. Not at all downplaying the tragedy of those who have died. Just saying on the plus side much less people will have to die. Which is good for 2 reasons:

1) the economy can open back up sooner with less fear of tragedy

2) well.... Less deaths equal less tragedy which equals less deaths which equals less tragedy which equals less deaths and less tragedy. The explanation could not be any more straight forward. The benefit of less tragedy is less tragedy. And the benefit of that is less tragedy. So what would Trump or Fauci or CNN think? Who cares. Less tragedy is better. Who gives a fuck what they think. Some people get up and argue over this all day. With their friends. Like the presidents opinion is going to save my life.

Fuck the president. My side of the argument is not Democratic or Republican. My side is less tragedy. Such a good thing why even argue?

Not directing this at anyone in general. Just saying


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:kingcrankey: I did not say to edit my signature soulidarity! Now forever I will never remember what I said about understanding the secrets of the universe by paying attention to subtleties!

:facepalm: I'm never giving you the password again. Jerk


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Offlinekoods
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [Re: imachavel]
    #26666409 - 05/12/20 12:01 PM (3 years, 9 months ago)

Airports never closed


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NotSheekle said
“if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”


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Offlinekoods
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [Re: imachavel] * 2
    #26666420 - 05/12/20 12:07 PM (3 years, 9 months ago)

Quote:

Less deaths equal less tragedy which equals less deaths which equals less tragedy which equals less deaths and less tragedy. The explanation could not be any more straight forward.




Circular logic is hardly straightforward

We already know how many people die with a mostly closed economy. Mortality rate is totally irrelevant to figuring out what happens if you start to reopen with 20,000 cases a day when we closed down at 1/10th that number

Look at the states with the highest rate of case growth. Tennessee. Iowa. Georgia. It’s gonna get ugly


Edited by koods (05/12/20 12:11 PM)


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InvisibleInfiniteDreams
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [Re: feevers]
    #26666448 - 05/12/20 12:25 PM (3 years, 9 months ago)

Quote:

feevers said:
A few weeks back, the hospital my wife works for had 200+ on the COVID wing and half were under 45.




There's more to health than just age.  These young folk... well, middle-aged folk, were probably all chonkers.


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