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Offline277volt808
Registered: 10/02/16
Posts: 249
Last seen: 1 month, 23 days
Rally or bubble? Sit on cash or hedge against inflation?
    #26659378 - 05/09/20 07:11 AM (3 years, 9 months ago)

What is everyone's thoughts on the current global financial situation? I live in the US so I'm speaking from it's perspective regarding currency and markets.

The past month has been a pretty nice wave for the NYSE. I usually like large companies but some small-cap sleepers took off and that was awesome. So now going forward into 2020 and beyond, I'm sketched out about the whole situation. Covid-19 took a practically unprecedented toll on the US economy (and world), the Fed pumped trillions, and markets rallied in equally break-neck fashion. There seems to be two groups of people who either; A- Ignore the uncertainty, keep their investments on a short leash, and focus on the rally; or B- are sitting on cash waiting for "the bubble to pop".

To make matters even more uncertain for me, there seems to be two trains of thought about what the effects of all this federal stimulus will be. Hyperinflation or not? I could of swore the dollar was going to be destroyed after 2009's counteractions but it wasn't as extreme as I feared. Markets took off in the longest rally in history.

I would like to go long on some large-cap opportunities but am so uncertain about the direction in the immediate future. I wouldn't want cash to rot away either.

For those who trade or invest in here, what do you think the outlook is?


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Edited by 277volt808 (05/09/20 07:13 AM)


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InvisibleAsante
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Re: Rally or bubble? Sit on cash or hedge against inflation? [Re: 277volt808]
    #26659557 - 05/09/20 09:10 AM (3 years, 9 months ago)

Sitting on cash is the worst thing you can do now.

TRILLIONS are being printed to deal with this pandemic.

The Dollar is DYING.

Its going to inflate enormously in the coming time is my prediction.

How can it not with SURPLUS TRILLIONS being printed to undercut the value of every dollar in existence?

Invest in something that appreciates in value.

We're at the edge of a gaping economic cliff.

That brings ruin for most and thus, opportunity for some.

Be SOME in that equasion.


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InvisibleAhab McBathsalts
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Re: Rally or bubble? Sit on cash or hedge against inflation? [Re: Asante]
    #26662358 - 05/10/20 12:45 PM (3 years, 9 months ago)

I don't know that there will be inflation. The Euro is going to sharply depreciate, and lot of realestate will depreciate as more people find that commercial realestate for offices isn't as needed as they thought and personal bankruptcies force fire sales of houses. Trillions are being printed, but they aren't going into a lot of places in the economy.

I think deflation is a bigger risk than inflation. It's going to be very uneven where some goods and services will be sharply lower and some will be much higher. Housing and energy vs. Food.

A lot of layoffs and small businesses won't come back and overall spending should be lower, but it will be uneven.


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Offline277volt808
Registered: 10/02/16
Posts: 249
Last seen: 1 month, 23 days
Re: Rally or bubble? Sit on cash or hedge against inflation? [Re: Ahab McBathsalts]
    #26665404 - 05/11/20 08:40 PM (3 years, 9 months ago)

A lot of that 'macroeconomics' looses me but that's what I was reading as well. If I understood some articles I read correctly- basic goods would not be as affected as other goods. I don't know if that means a further widened class gap...

Maybe how online shopping shifted traffic from brick & mortars, this push into online workplaces will more permanently move workers and students away from central offices and schools.

Maybe I'll just wait and see what happens. I want to be ready for opportunity in whatever form that is.


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Fav Threads:

Stories from the Psychedelic Underground (dwpineal)

My LSD Trip That Lasted 8 Months (dwpineal)

The "THUMBPRINT" (Learyfan)



I think not to wander so far down the path that we can't find our way back. -Northerner


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InvisibleAhab McBathsalts
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Re: Rally or bubble? Sit on cash or hedge against inflation? [Re: 277volt808] * 1
    #26665536 - 05/11/20 10:13 PM (3 years, 9 months ago)

It's hard to tell, because economics isn't a science. You can't isolate and test with scientific method. You can show co-relations, but not causation.


Japan and Europe have been printing a fuck ton of money for ever and it hasn't caused any widespread inflation, maybe printing more money will help? It might be different because you are giving cash to more people, but it doesn't mean it will make it back into the economy. Many households are so leveraged with debt it might only go to servicing those debts.


There is certainly a tale of two economies too. The widening wealth gap will really show a stark divide. Those that are able to work from home, have savings and no consumer debt, and have good jobs will see their disposable income rise, but they can't travel or spend it on as many things so it might cause more asset inflation in stocks.

Others that work in service jobs like waiters and coffee baristas will be laid off and their spending will sharply fall. Travel and tourism companies fail. Retail companies will file for bankruptcy and unemployment of these sectors of the economy will be high.

It might be that the wealthgap is finally choking the economy, but maybe not, what do I know.


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"Nobody exists on purpose. Nobody belongs anywhere. Everybody's going to die."


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OfflineO_Dweeds
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Re: Rally or bubble? Sit on cash or hedge against inflation? [Re: Ahab McBathsalts]
    #26666532 - 05/12/20 01:10 PM (3 years, 9 months ago)

Move into digital currencies; China just allowed for their entire public to legally engage in additional currency (digital currency) which has an excellent method of distribution to prevent what is happening now with the petro/dollar. People who have all their eggs in that basket are about to get whacked; the ones who have moved into the new, MUCH more efficient technology will be happier as well as our planet Earth.

If you care about your planet, move to digital based currency.
If you care about yourself, move to digital based currency.


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Oxygen. Water. Neil Young

Our word "planet" comes from the Greek word planetes, meaning "wanderer."

"There ain't no revolution, only evolution, but every time I'm in Georgia I eat a peach for peace."
Gregg Allman


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