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feevers


Registered: 12/28/10
Posts: 8,546
Loc:
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Re: Viral outbreak in China - Coronavirus 2020: A Global Pandemic [Re: morrowasted]
#26655686 - 05/07/20 06:01 PM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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I didn't say anything about jobs. If hospitals were being hit by a covid surge, no one would be describing them as "fucking slow". In many rural areas all it would take is one local nursing home getting infected to fill up all the beds at the local hospital.
If we had gotten ahead of the game with testing and field clinics (if needed) we could've left wings of the hopsitals open for elective procedures and routine medical exams/tests/treatment. Test staff before each shift and each new patient, no visitors and a sterilization/rotation regimen for incoming shipments.
But like with most aspects of the response we half-assed it completely.
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bodhisatta 
Smurf real estate agent


Registered: 04/30/13
Posts: 61,890
Loc: Milky way
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [Re: Kizzle]
#26655709 - 05/07/20 06:14 PM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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The biggest hospital in Milwaukee county is doing 3-4 CT scans a shift.
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feevers


Registered: 12/28/10
Posts: 8,546
Loc:
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [Re: bodhisatta]
#26655776 - 05/07/20 06:39 PM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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The hospital my wife works at has 100+ COVID patients in the ICU at any given time, they needed to convert an entire floor into an ICU. Many dying each day and being replaced by new patients, and hundreds more on their COVID non-ICU wing. The outpatient COVID clinic is booked solid with a waiting list for people who are extremely sick but don't (yet) meet the criteria for hospitalization. It's not uncommon for people 6+ weeks into it to still be seeking medical attention and still have the blood O2 of COPD patients and difficulty even standing up or walking. Half or more are under 45.
And that's after the state has been shut down for 2 months now and extreme social distancing/infection prevention methods in place. Now that the PPE and other supplies are up and cases are declining, they're looking to phase back in elective treatments. The main problem is still testing. The current shut down is not at all sustainable but it just seems like a waste of everything that's already been done to reopen now or soon without proper testing in place.
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HamHead
Hard Ass Motherfucker



Registered: 03/17/15
Posts: 6,107
Loc: Galactic sector ZZ9 Plura...
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [Re: feevers]
#26655819 - 05/07/20 06:59 PM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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Quote:
feevers said: And that's after the state has been shut down for 2 months now and extreme social distancing/infection prevention methods in place.
The main problem is still testing.
Yup, lockdowns aren't working. Let's keep it up.
There is no problem with testing, as 98% of people have mild or no symptoms.
THE main problem is how many people have lost their jobs and businesses. Recovering from this economical disaster will be a challenge for sure.
We can mourn those lost later, people need to make money as stimulus money will never be enough.
-------------------- The Italian researchers’ findings, published by the INT’s scientific magazine Tumori Journal, show 11.6% of 959 healthy volunteers enrolled in a lung cancer screening trial between September 2019 and March 2020 had developed coronavirus antibodies well before February. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-timing-idUSKBN27V0KF This online first version has been peer-reviewed, accepted and edited, but not formatted and finalized with corrections from authors and proofreaders https://www.icandecide.org/
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The Blind Ass
Bodhi



Registered: 08/16/16
Posts: 26,731
Loc: The Primordial Mind
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [Re: feevers] 1
#26655820 - 05/07/20 06:59 PM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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Feevers
True, but Its like a force of nature that cant be held back. That’s my impression, but i may be wrong.
NC is set to open tomorrow morning unless something has changed since the governor’s last announcement.
-------------------- Give me Liberty caps -or- give me Death caps
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koods
Ribbit



Registered: 05/26/11
Posts: 106,313
Loc: Maryland/DC Burbs
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [Re: HamHead] 1
#26655844 - 05/07/20 07:15 PM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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Quote:
HamHead said:
Quote:
feevers said: And that's after the state has been shut down for 2 months now and extreme social distancing/infection prevention methods in place.
The main problem is still testing.
Yup, lockdowns aren't working. Let's keep it up.
There is no problem with testing, as 98% of people have mild or no symptoms.
THE main problem is how many people have lost their jobs and businesses. Recovering from this economical disaster will be a challenge for sure.
We can mourn those lost later, people need to make money as stimulus money will never be enough.
98% that’s complete bullshit.
Also more than 50% of the so called asymptomatics actually have pneumonia.
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NotSheekle said “if I believed she was 16 I would become unattracted to her”
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feevers


Registered: 12/28/10
Posts: 8,546
Loc:
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Quote:
HamHead said:
Quote:
feevers said: And that's after the state has been shut down for 2 months now and extreme social distancing/infection prevention methods in place.
The main problem is still testing.
There is no problem with testing, as 98% of people have mild or no symptoms.
Usually I just skip over your COVID posts, every line shows your complete lack of any ability to comprehend data and science. This one is particularly painful.
And no, I'm not going to click whatever whackjob youtube conspiracy video you reply with.
Quote:
The Blind Ass said: Feevers
True, but Its like a force of nature that cant be held back. That’s my impression, but i may be wrong.
NC is set to open tomorrow morning unless something has changed since the governor’s last announcement.
It can certainly be held back, and that's exactly what's happening, through slowing its spread. Holding something back isn't the same as getting rid of it. Holding it back means taking the time to gather data on what it actually is (pretty damn important with a brand new virus), stock up supplies and prep the medical system, make sure the cases come in gradually and not all at once, and plan the course of action that makes the most sense according to the data. Maybe if you get lucky you come up with more effective treatment protocols in that time.
Slow the initial hit, gradually reopen with provisions to protect the vulnerable and testing/contact tracing in place to decrease the r0. I'm not spouting some radical ideas, I'm parroting common sense things that many of us in this thread have been saying since the beginning and every single public health expert is in agreement over.
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Kizzle
Misanthrope


Registered: 08/30/11
Posts: 9,865
Last seen: 1 day, 2 hours
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Re: Viral outbreak in China - Coronavirus 2020: A Global Pandemic [Re: feevers] 1
#26655874 - 05/07/20 07:35 PM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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The response has been ridiculous. Honestly I would have preferred a couple months of massive deaths and chaos. I could have called it an act of god and moved on. Instead we have this prolonged nonsense where people are making real sacrifices just to watch the government fumble at everything.
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TheFakeSunRa
Bitch Splitter



Registered: 03/01/05
Posts: 16,449
Loc: Dirdy SOUF
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [Re: koods]
#26655890 - 05/07/20 07:41 PM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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Quote:
koods said:
Quote:
HamHead said:
Quote:
feevers said: And that's after the state has been shut down for 2 months now and extreme social distancing/infection prevention methods in place.
The main problem is still testing.
Yup, lockdowns aren't working. Let's keep it up.
There is no problem with testing, as 98% of people have mild or no symptoms.
THE main problem is how many people have lost their jobs and businesses. Recovering from this economical disaster will be a challenge for sure.
We can mourn those lost later, people need to make money as stimulus money will never be enough.
98% that’s complete bullshit.
Also more than 50% of the so called asymptomatics actually have pneumonia.
Do you have a source for that?
-------------------- [quote]Asante said: You constantly make posts thatr fling middle school insults at people you don't like mixed in with maladjusted psychopathic comments about wanting to beat up the other poster with a crowbar. You know how shit you are, you just don't give a fuck for precisely that reason. I disendorse you.[/quote]
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HamHead
Hard Ass Motherfucker



Registered: 03/17/15
Posts: 6,107
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [Re: feevers]
#26655922 - 05/07/20 07:54 PM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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Quote:
feevers said:
Quote:
HamHead said:
Quote:
feevers said: And that's after the state has been shut down for 2 months now and extreme social distancing/infection prevention methods in place.
The main problem is still testing.
There is no problem with testing, as 98% of people have mild or no symptoms.
Usually I just skip over your COVID posts, every line shows your complete lack of any ability to comprehend data and science. This one is particularly painful.
And no, I'm not going to click whatever whackjob youtube conspiracy video you reply with.
Quote:
The Blind Ass said: Feevers
True, but Its like a force of nature that cant be held back. That’s my impression, but i may be wrong.
NC is set to open tomorrow morning unless something has changed since the governor’s last announcement.
It can certainly be held back, and that's exactly what's happening, through slowing its spread. Holding something back isn't the same as getting rid of it. Holding it back means taking the time to gather data on what it actually is (pretty damn important with a brand new virus), stock up supplies and prep the medical system, make sure the cases come in gradually and not all at once, and plan the course of action that makes the most sense according to the data. Maybe if you get lucky you come up with more effective treatment protocols in that time.
Slow the initial hit, gradually reopen with provisions to protect the vulnerable and testing/contact tracing in place to decrease the r0. I'm not spouting some radical ideas, I'm parroting common sense things that many of us in this thread have been saying since the beginning and every single public health expert is in agreement over.
It's a two and a half hour video anyway, you may not have enough of an attention span to keep up.
So, by 'holding it back', it has now been drawn out and will flare up once lockdowns begin to ease, no matter what public safety measures are carried out. If, perhaps, other measures, **cough** Sweden ***cough cough***, were taken, US might be closer to herd immunity than we are.
Viruses spread, it's what they do and we can not stop them. In fact, with vaccines, we encourage them to spread.
Call people conspiracy theorists all you want, information is spreading and many of these people will be vindicated.
Numbers and data have been collected now for at least six weeks, with enough testing to take a random guess, or estimate, that a much higher percentage of people have fallen ill, with whatever virus we are dealing with this year, and death rates are showing, even after some fudging, to be comparable to seasonal flu.
That two hour video has a good ending, speaking to a doctor from Hawaii speaking about life and death, love and experience.
Check it out, some good info.
-------------------- The Italian researchers’ findings, published by the INT’s scientific magazine Tumori Journal, show 11.6% of 959 healthy volunteers enrolled in a lung cancer screening trial between September 2019 and March 2020 had developed coronavirus antibodies well before February. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-timing-idUSKBN27V0KF This online first version has been peer-reviewed, accepted and edited, but not formatted and finalized with corrections from authors and proofreaders https://www.icandecide.org/
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feevers


Registered: 12/28/10
Posts: 8,546
Loc:
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Re: Viral outbreak in China - Coronavirus 2020: A Global Pandemic [Re: Kizzle] 3
#26655968 - 05/07/20 08:17 PM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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Quote:
Kizzle said: The response has been ridiculous. Honestly I would have preferred a couple months of massive deaths and chaos. I could have called it an act of god and moved on. Instead we have this prolonged nonsense where people are making real sacrifices just to watch the government fumble at everything.
It's strange, we shut down most of our economy, spent trillions of dollars, then said "Fuck it, this is taking too long, let's bail". We literally were only a few steps away from being in as ideal a situation as would likely be possible without a vaccine/cure. Increased testing, contact tracing (it's literally just one phone call/text) programs in every state, and temporary disability for those at highest risk would make the reopening process so much smoother.
Instead it's going to be a clusterfuck. You know who reopening early is good for? The corporations and governments that no longer have to pay out unemployment because things are open now and workers don't have the option to stay home, regardless of their health and safety. The government who no longer needs to provide relief for small businesses because now they can be open so they don't need the money, problem solved. Nevermind the fact that most places will be doing a fraction of their usual business and only giving their employees skeleton hours because the polls are saying the vast majority of Americans agree with continuing to social distance and will avoid unnecessary trips to public places for the foreeable future.
Simply reopening the economy and seeing what happens is not a win for most people right now. A bailout of small businesses and the lower/middle class, protections for the vulnerable, and a public health plan in place that instills confidence in the public to return to work and spending money is what's needed to get things turned around.
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morrowasted
Worldwide Stepper


Registered: 10/30/09
Posts: 31,378
Loc: House of Mirrors
Last seen: 10 days, 15 hours
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It's true, COVID19 frequently shows up on CT even in self-described asymptomatics. Pneumonia is just alveolar inflammation, you can have it to all sorts of severities. In asymptomatic people the pneumonia is clearly not that severe, but it's frequently (not always) there.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30086-4/fulltext
Radiological findings from 81 patients with COVID-19 pneumonia in Wuhan, China: a descriptive study
Quote:
COVID-19 pneumonia manifests with chest CT imaging abnormalities, even in asymptomatic patients, with rapid evolution from focal unilateral to diffuse bilateral ground-glass opacities that progressed to or co-existed with consolidations within 1–3 weeks.
Also a lot of people who claim to be asymptomatic just have no body-sense whatsoever. It's actually amazing to me how well some people are able to ignore obvious signs of bodily distress.
Edited by morrowasted (05/07/20 08:23 PM)
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HamHead
Hard Ass Motherfucker



Registered: 03/17/15
Posts: 6,107
Loc: Galactic sector ZZ9 Plura...
Last seen: 2 years, 8 months
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [Re: morrowasted] 1
#26655982 - 05/07/20 08:24 PM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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These two doctors are conspiracy theorists and have a pleasant conversation about Covid.
It's only twenty minutes.
-------------------- The Italian researchers’ findings, published by the INT’s scientific magazine Tumori Journal, show 11.6% of 959 healthy volunteers enrolled in a lung cancer screening trial between September 2019 and March 2020 had developed coronavirus antibodies well before February. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-timing-idUSKBN27V0KF This online first version has been peer-reviewed, accepted and edited, but not formatted and finalized with corrections from authors and proofreaders https://www.icandecide.org/
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morrowasted
Worldwide Stepper


Registered: 10/30/09
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [Re: HamHead] 2
#26655988 - 05/07/20 08:30 PM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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I am shocked that Erickson didn't run away into hiding. That video he posted with the other doctor was embarrassingly wrong. The shame of how wrong the things he said were will follow him for the rest of probably less-than-illustrious-from-here-forward career.
In case you're not capable of figuring out why they are wrong on your own (which actually isn't that hard, even if you're not an epidemiologist), it only takes 10 minutes of trying to see if the other side has a rebuttal to see that what they said was, well, wrong.
Quote:
To get their numbers for a given county, state, or even country, they took a series of simple steps. First, they took the number of tests that had been conducted and calculated the percentage of positive results. Next, they “extrapolated” that by applying that percentage to the entire population of the geographic region in question to calculate the total number of positive cases. Finally, they divided the number of deaths by their calculated number of cases, and lo and behold, the death rates were low, way lower than actual epidemiologists have calculated (see example in Note 4). Why is that? Anytime you see one or two “experts” present a value that is vastly different from what all the other experts have arrived at, you should be suspicious, especially if they announce their findings in a blog, press conference, etc. rather than the peer-reviewed literature (where real scientists present their findings).
In this case, there are two glaring problems with their analyses. First, you simply cannot extrapolate the percent of positive tests to the entire population because it’s not a random sample. Imagine, for example, that we have a bag with 1,000 marbles some of which are black and some of which are dark blue. We don’t know how many of each there are, so we reach in and pull out several random handfuls and count them, and we find 50% black marbles and 50% dark blue marbles. From this, we’d conclude that there are roughly 500 black marbles and 500 dark blue marbles in the bag. That would be a fine extrapolation, because we took a random sample. Now, however, let’s say we can see partially into the bag. It’s a bit dark so we can’t always tell the color of the marble for sure, but we deliberately select the marbles we think are dark blue. From this, we find that 20% are black and 80% are dark blue. Can we conclude that 800 of the marbles in the bag are dark blue? Obviously not! We clearly took a biased sample, which means we can’t extrapolate from it. This is experimental design 101.
Coronavirus testing thus far has been a very biased sample. It has not been truly random sampling. Rather, it has been heavily biased towards people who had symptoms, people who were in contact with someone who developed COVID19, people at high risk, etc. In other words, the percentage of positive cases in the testing is probably much higher than the actual state or country-wide percentages, just as our estimate of dark blue marbles was unrealistically high. This means that our intrepid doctors overestimated the total number of cases, thus vastly underestimating the mortality rate. They calculated mortality by dividing known deaths by their estimated cases, which means the higher the number of estimated cases, the lower the death rate.
The other problem is that they are only using the people that have died thus far, but that number is going to keep going up, even if no one else ever becomes infected. In other words, some of the people who are infected with COVID right now are going to die. So, you can’t take the ongoing infection data and divide the number of deaths by the number of cases, because people are still dying. That number is going to keep going up. To illustrate, let’s say that we have 10,000 currently infected people, plus another 10,000 who have either died (100) or recovered (9900). It would be stupid to take those deaths (100) and divide by all those cases (20,000) and conclude that there is only a 0.5% death rate. We can’t do that because we still have 10,000 people who are infected, some of which will die. Do you see the point? Using these numbers midway (as they did) biases the results towards a lower death rate.
These very basic problems with their analyses completely nullify their results. The numbers they are basing their arguments on are invalid, which means that they have nothing to back up their claims.
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TheFakeSunRa
Bitch Splitter



Registered: 03/01/05
Posts: 16,449
Loc: Dirdy SOUF
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Quote:
morrowasted said: It's true, COVID19 frequently shows up on CT even in self-described asymptomatics. Pneumonia is just alveolar inflammation, you can have it to all sorts of severities. In asymptomatic people the pneumonia is clearly not that severe, but it's frequently (not always) there.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30086-4/fulltext
Radiological findings from 81 patients with COVID-19 pneumonia in Wuhan, China: a descriptive study
Quote:
COVID-19 pneumonia manifests with chest CT imaging abnormalities, even in asymptomatic patients, with rapid evolution from focal unilateral to diffuse bilateral ground-glass opacities that progressed to or co-existed with consolidations within 1–3 weeks.
Also a lot of people who claim to be asymptomatic just have no body-sense whatsoever. It's actually amazing to me how well some people are able to ignore obvious signs of bodily distress.
Interesting. That last sentence is pretty intense.
I think I’m guilty of that too really.
-------------------- [quote]Asante said: You constantly make posts thatr fling middle school insults at people you don't like mixed in with maladjusted psychopathic comments about wanting to beat up the other poster with a crowbar. You know how shit you are, you just don't give a fuck for precisely that reason. I disendorse you.[/quote]
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feevers


Registered: 12/28/10
Posts: 8,546
Loc:
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [Re: HamHead] 2
#26656003 - 05/07/20 08:39 PM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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Totally just a coincidence that overall mortality rates in COVID hotspots increased exponentially exactly in synch with the outbreak


https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/28/us/coronavirus-death-toll-total.html
Totally just the flu. Hospitals totally have 300+ flu patients at a time doing 6+ night stays and dying by the dozens during each shift during flu seasons.
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trendal
J♠



Registered: 04/17/01
Posts: 20,815
Loc: Ontario, Canada
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Re: Viral outbreak in China [Re: koods]
#26656014 - 05/07/20 08:45 PM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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Quote:
koods said: Also more than 50% of the so called asymptomatics actually have pneumonia.

If they are asymptomatic, what does it matter?
--------------------
Once, men turned their thinking over to machines in the hope that this would set them free. But that only permitted other men with machines to enslave them.
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morrowasted
Worldwide Stepper


Registered: 10/30/09
Posts: 31,378
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Last seen: 10 days, 15 hours
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I swear some people are able to make it into work despite being hungover simply by having an extraordinary ability to dissociate their thought processes from the physical experiences they are having. I think the ability to physically dissociate as coping mechanism (denial) sometimes has its roots in childhood trauma- it's like a learned "skill" for dealing with situations you're helpless to combat. Sometimes I talk to people who are clearly not feeling well who deny that anything is wrong at all.
Conversely, you get people who are totally fine who are hyperfixated on the idea that something is wrong with their bodies. People who are convinced they're on the fast track to a vent because they woke up with minor sniffles this morning, when other people don't even seem to notice major sniffles that actually do have a viral origin- or if you ask them about it, they'll often say something like "it's always like this", which you can easily confirm is bullshit by talking to a family member.
Assessing patients is like the most fun part of the job. Sifting through whatever the hell you're being told to figure out what is actually going on is a lot like being a detective. You get kids coming in to the ER that have been physically abused- of course, the family makes up some kind of story- but we're trained in how to sniff out bullshit. Junkies coming in complaining of chest pain because they want morphine- a lot of them look like they might be having a heart attack whenever they're in withdrawal, but the EKG will tell the tale. In the same way, people have come in for things totally unrelated to COVID19 like a car accident, claiming they have no symptoms of illness, and the COVID19 pneumonia shows up in their lungs- the imaging tells the true tale.
Edited by morrowasted (05/07/20 08:57 PM)
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morrowasted
Worldwide Stepper


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Re: Viral outbreak in China [Re: trendal] 2
#26656033 - 05/07/20 08:56 PM (3 years, 9 months ago) |
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Quote:
trendal said:
Quote:
koods said: Also more than 50% of the so called asymptomatics actually have pneumonia.

If they are asymptomatic, what does it matter?
It can matter. Most people with chronic kidney disease don't notice anything is amiss until they are already at like, Stage 3-4. By that time they are already on the way to needing dialysis or a transplant. Most people with hypertension never have any symptoms of hypertension but it kills them all the same. My aunt's brother died suddenly of a heart attack. He hadn't complained of any symptoms of illness, but on autopsy they discovered COVID19. It had caused liver failure, disseminated intravascular coagulation, leading to a heart attack, without ever giving him shortness of breath (at least, not badly enough that HE felt anything was amiss).
Even if you don't die, walking around with pneumonia for a month can damage your lungs permanently. These young folks may not be able to tell the difference, but they will be increasingly susceptible to things like COPD years down the line.
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Tantrika
Miss Ann Thrope




Registered: 03/26/12
Posts: 17,138
Loc: Lashed to the pyre
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Quote:
morrowasted said: ... Also a lot of people who claim to be asymptomatic just have no body-sense whatsoever. It's actually amazing to me how well some people are able to ignore obvious signs of bodily distress.
Have read articles claiming that clinical studies show up to 40% of test participants mistake the feeling of thirst for the feeling of hunger something to do with improper fear responses
but have not been able to find the clinical studies they claimed to be based on, so obvious grain of salt
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