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OfflineBuckomcdoogle
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The restaurant industry apocalypse 2020
    #26605941 - 04/16/20 01:57 PM (3 years, 9 months ago)

As im sure everyone is aware by now, stay at home orders resulting from the coronavirus has left millions currently out of work.

Some of the hardest hit, are those that work in restaurants and bars.

I really hope I am wrong about this, but I think this whole thing will destroy a large portion of the food and beverage industry as we know it.

Anyone who is familiar with the restaurant industry knows how slim the profit margins are as is.

A retail restaurant space in a big city will easily run 5-20k a month just for the space alone. This is just on top of whatever labor/food/operating costs stack up.

The vast majority of states have mandated all restaurants close until further notice, with the exception of to-go orders and drive throughs.

The problem with that is, you dont make any money on to-go, nobody tips on to-go orders.

I have a really bad feeling after this is all over, the majority of sit down restaurants will be forced to shutter for good.
The only ones that will survive will to be fastfood chains, and places that already get a majority of their income from delivery.

Imagine being a small business owner that owns a nice sit down restaurant and you are forced to close until further notice.
You still have to pay the rent on that space, and depending how your lease is constructed you may well be bankrupt by the time this is all over.

Theres really no telling how long these restrictions will go on for.
If I owned a restaurant, Id close up and get the fuck out.
At this point, those people have 2 choices.

Get the fuck out, or submit yourself to massive amounts of debt until this finally blows over.

There's no telling how long that could be..


--------------------
"Nothing is more dangerous to your creativity than comfort and familiarity"

"Nihilism is the most basic truth in existence,
the only consistency throughout the world, and the universe is
chaos and decay"
"Logic leads to nihilism"



Edited by Buckomcdoogle (04/16/20 02:01 PM)


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InvisibleAhab McBathsalts
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Re: The restaurant industry apocalypse 2020 [Re: Buckomcdoogle]
    #26606860 - 04/16/20 10:00 PM (3 years, 9 months ago)

I've heard about 5 million of the 30 million small businesses in the USA will go belly up. It's going to be disastrous

I'm not sure I can find a link to the video, but it was either The Compound, or Bloomberg that threw those numbers out.


A much bigger problem is how mortgages will default or go into forebearance and property taxes largely won't be paid. Most cities derrive a majority of their tax revenue from property taxes, and in some states without income taxes property taxes make up an even larger portion of state revenue.


It's bigger than the financial crisis by several times. It won't just be Detroit going bust, but several major cities, several municipal bonds going to zero and at least a 2 year depression. The huge amount of fed stimulus against huge deflationary forces of unemployment and defaults leaves a huge margin of error for a misstep that could easily lead to deflationary pressures or unlikely hyperinflation.

I truly believe many major economies are fucked and the Euro zone common currency will be a bigger and bigger problem as time goes by.


--------------------
"Nobody exists on purpose. Nobody belongs anywhere. Everybody's going to die."


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OfflineBuckomcdoogle
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Re: The restaurant industry apocalypse 2020 [Re: Ahab McBathsalts] * 1
    #26607169 - 04/17/20 03:11 AM (3 years, 9 months ago)

"Most cities derrive a majority of their tax revenue from property taxes"

Thats why detroit has those 1$ houses for sale.

When houses sit abandoned the city cannot collect property taxes on them.

This is unprecedented, and will without a doubt effect our lives forever.

This is 2008x10.


--------------------
"Nothing is more dangerous to your creativity than comfort and familiarity"

"Nihilism is the most basic truth in existence,
the only consistency throughout the world, and the universe is
chaos and decay"
"Logic leads to nihilism"



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OfflineBuckomcdoogle
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Re: The restaurant industry apocalypse 2020 [Re: Buckomcdoogle]
    #26607170 - 04/17/20 03:12 AM (3 years, 9 months ago)

Isn't it kind of poetic and incredible something as small as a germ finally brought down our fugaze way of life?


--------------------
"Nothing is more dangerous to your creativity than comfort and familiarity"

"Nihilism is the most basic truth in existence,
the only consistency throughout the world, and the universe is
chaos and decay"
"Logic leads to nihilism"



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InvisibleAhab McBathsalts
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Re: The restaurant industry apocalypse 2020 [Re: Buckomcdoogle]
    #26607702 - 04/17/20 09:55 AM (3 years, 9 months ago)

Systems like economies are inherently fragile.

This is what climate change activists have been talking about. A few extra carbons per million might destroy the world.


--------------------
"Nobody exists on purpose. Nobody belongs anywhere. Everybody's going to die."


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OfflineKryptos
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Re: The restaurant industry apocalypse 2020 [Re: Buckomcdoogle]
    #26608382 - 04/17/20 03:16 PM (3 years, 9 months ago)

5 of 30 million small businesses? That seems...strange. both of those numbers seem strange. You're telling me that 1/5th of the working population of the US is self employed? Assuming that those small businesses are a single employee?

If you're counting gig workers and contractors as small businesses, then I believe the 30m number, but I no longer believe the 5m number, because they've all been getting fucked.

Either way, the small business loan money already ran out. Reminder that the average Hilton counts as a "small business" by the stimulus bill's definition.

Quote:

Buckomcdoogle said:
Isn't it kind of poetic and incredible something as small as a germ finally brought down our fugaze way of life?




Poetic, maybe, but not incredible. People have been sounding the alarm for years. Our economy is not healthy, and has not been healthy since before 2008. Some have argued that the last bull run since 2008 was driven not by fundamentals, but by bailouts and buybacks.

I am finding the possibility of a bailout-based investment vehicle existing more and more likely as time goes on. Sort of like an ETF, but one that tracks government bailout money being paid out to certain sectors.


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InvisibleAhab McBathsalts
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Re: The restaurant industry apocalypse 2020 [Re: Kryptos]
    #26608425 - 04/17/20 03:37 PM (3 years, 9 months ago)

Ya, plumbers, doctors, lawyers, accountants, realestate firms, restaurants, most hotels, clothing retailers, gym, hair salons, grocery stores. All of these are small businesses.


For example. The local McDonalds is started by a guy, Frankie, who pays a franchaise fee to the big corporate. They give him the supplier list, training on how to operate the business and materials. Frankie owns the local McDonalds. That is a small business. He does the hiring, is responsible for payroll, he makes profits and reaps rewards of business risk. In exchange he pays McDonalds the upfront licencing fee and regular payments to corporate.

I think Starbucks is all corporate owned in that there are no franchaisee locations, but a ton of businesses are franchaises. All of those are small businesses.


--------------------
"Nobody exists on purpose. Nobody belongs anywhere. Everybody's going to die."


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InvisibleAhab McBathsalts
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1Re: The restaurant industry apocalypse 2020 [Re: Ahab McBathsalts]
    #26608439 - 04/17/20 03:42 PM (3 years, 9 months ago)

Lots of people own more than one small business. A local restaurant owner might have 4 restaurants, but they all have different tax numbers, different payroll, and pay into a bigger corporate structure where the owner collects profits.

Or he might have 3 laundry matts that only has one employee for all three locations, because all you need to do is lock the door and collect the coins. Same with paid parking lots.

Truckers are largely all small businesses, although some work directly for only one company.

Lots of retail jobs aren't full time. You might have people working at 2 or 3 shitty retail jobs for small businesses just to get 40 hour or enough to live on. They can work at 3 small businesses, but doesn't mean they are all self employed.


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"Nobody exists on purpose. Nobody belongs anywhere. Everybody's going to die."


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InvisibleAhab McBathsalts
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Re: 1Re: The restaurant industry apocalypse 2020 [Re: Ahab McBathsalts]
    #26609065 - 04/17/20 08:30 PM (3 years, 9 months ago)

Quote:

According to data from the Census Bureau’s Annual Survey of Entrepreneurs, there were 5.6 million employer firms in the United States in 2016.

● Firms with fewer than 500 workers accounted for 99.7 percent of those businesses.

● Firms with fewer than 100 workers accounted for 98.2 percent.

● Firms with fewer than 20 workers made up 89.0 percent.

Add in the number of nonemployer businesses – there were 24.8 million in 2016 (latest data) – then the share of U.S. businesses with less than 20 workers increases to 98.0 percent.





89% of jobs are fewer than 20 employees, but yeah 16 million people are so are self employed, like truck drivers, plumbers, electricians, whatever

https://sbecouncil.org/about-us/facts-and-data/

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/08/29/facts-about-american-workers/


--------------------
"Nobody exists on purpose. Nobody belongs anywhere. Everybody's going to die."


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OfflineVigilantevendetta
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Re: The restaurant industry apocalypse 2020 [Re: Buckomcdoogle]
    #26612092 - 04/19/20 05:20 AM (3 years, 9 months ago)

Restaurant quality in general has plummeted over the past 20 years.  The food and service usually suck because owners cut corners on food and underpaid waitstaff are too full of resentment to provide a pleasurable dining experience. 

I say good bye and good riddance.


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OfflineManianFHS
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Re: The restaurant industry apocalypse 2020 [Re: Vigilantevendetta]
    #26613245 - 04/19/20 03:49 PM (3 years, 9 months ago)

kind of how i feel about Vegas, not to change subject too much. They got to the point that it was all about their bottom line and maximizing profits, adding resort fees, etc to gouge tourists. Now they are FOOKED and I really have little sympathy, aside from the workers of course.

Hopefully this humbles some sectors, and they have to get honest and competitive to regain a customer base.


--------------------
notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... "

ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."


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OfflineKryptos
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Re: The restaurant industry apocalypse 2020 [Re: Vigilantevendetta]
    #26613263 - 04/19/20 03:58 PM (3 years, 9 months ago)

It won't.

The people with the money to stay afloat will stay afloat. This means Taco Bell, McDs, and Olive Garden will survive.

The people that don't have cash reserves on hand will drown. This means that local mom and pop diner with those great breakfast pancakes that was always willing to let you float until next paycheck because you were a regular is fucked.

Quote:

Vigilantevendetta said:
The food and service usually suck because owners cut corners on food and underpaid waitstaff.




Get used to more of that, because those are the people that are going to survive this.


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OfflineBuckomcdoogle
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Re: The restaurant industry apocalypse 2020 [Re: Kryptos] * 1
    #26616812 - 04/21/20 05:06 AM (3 years, 9 months ago)

"I say good bye and good riddance."

The problem with that is, now you have 10s of millions of unemployed people as a result of this collapse.

Bartenders, wait staff, cooks, all out of work because of this until further notice.

What are we going to do? All go work at amazon warehouses?

Only to be replaced by robots in the next decade or two?

Go be corporate slaves at Dominos?

Yeah, id rather die.

I was long skeptical of Andrew Yang, but now I think hes been right about a number of things.


--------------------
"Nothing is more dangerous to your creativity than comfort and familiarity"

"Nihilism is the most basic truth in existence,
the only consistency throughout the world, and the universe is
chaos and decay"
"Logic leads to nihilism"



Edited by Buckomcdoogle (04/21/20 05:10 AM)


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OfflineBuckomcdoogle
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Re: The restaurant industry apocalypse 2020 [Re: Buckomcdoogle]
    #26616814 - 04/21/20 05:08 AM (3 years, 9 months ago)

Isnt it funny how people were laughing at him about universal basic income, now all these bi partisan pundits are praising it as an idea?


--------------------
"Nothing is more dangerous to your creativity than comfort and familiarity"

"Nihilism is the most basic truth in existence,
the only consistency throughout the world, and the universe is
chaos and decay"
"Logic leads to nihilism"



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OfflineManianFHS
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Re: The restaurant industry apocalypse 2020 [Re: Buckomcdoogle]
    #26617497 - 04/21/20 11:11 AM (3 years, 9 months ago)

I voted for that guy!


--------------------
notapillow said: "you are going about this endeavor all wrong. clear your mind of useless fear and concern. buy the ticket, take the ride, and all that.... "

ChrisWho said: "It's all about the journey, not the destination."


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OfflineKryptos
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Re: The restaurant industry apocalypse 2020 [Re: Buckomcdoogle]
    #26618079 - 04/21/20 03:23 PM (3 years, 9 months ago)

Quote:

Buckomcdoogle said:
Isnt it funny how people were laughing at him about universal basic income, now all these bi partisan pundits are praising it as an idea?




Personally, I think his UBI didn't go nearly far enough. It wasn't going to do what it accomplished because $1000 a month is a middle class lifestyle in bumfuck, Kentucky and less than 10% of the poverty line in SF.


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InvisibleAhab McBathsalts
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Re: The restaurant industry apocalypse 2020 [Re: Buckomcdoogle]
    #26618144 - 04/21/20 03:55 PM (3 years, 9 months ago)

Quote:

Buckomcdoogle said:
"I say good bye and good riddance."

The problem with that is, now you have 10s of millions of unemployed people as a result of this collapse.

Bartenders, wait staff, cooks, all out of work because of this until further notice.

What are we going to do? All go work at amazon warehouses?







Probably protest in the streets. That's what the virus protesters are all about. It isn't retards that don't believe in science, well maybe, but probably not. It's people that are too broke not to work. These people need to work and they can't so they are taking it to the streets. It's this crisis's occupy wallstreet.

Social unrest doesn't always make sense. These aren't leading economists. They are people with a narrow goal that are pissed off and others will jump on the bandwagon to push their own agendas.


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"Nobody exists on purpose. Nobody belongs anywhere. Everybody's going to die."


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OfflineKryptos
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Re: The restaurant industry apocalypse 2020 [Re: Ahab McBathsalts]
    #26618444 - 04/21/20 06:36 PM (3 years, 9 months ago)

I don't know if that's entirely accurate.

Fun stuff about the protests, courtesy of some guy going by Dr_Midnight

Those "protests" are pretty damn fishy.


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InvisibleAhab McBathsalts
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Re: The restaurant industry apocalypse 2020 [Re: Kryptos]
    #26618624 - 04/21/20 08:11 PM (3 years, 9 months ago)

Yeah, I read something about that and them having ties to NRA funding groups. But they are out in the street because of social discontent. It's not like these are professional protestors like green peace hires. These are pawns that the NRA has tapped into.


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"Nobody exists on purpose. Nobody belongs anywhere. Everybody's going to die."


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OfflineBuckomcdoogle
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Re: The restaurant industry apocalypse 2020 [Re: Ahab McBathsalts]
    #26618943 - 04/21/20 10:48 PM (3 years, 9 months ago)

Even if things return to normal in the somewhat near future
I have a feeling a lot of the more skilled people in the industry are just going to jump ship.

If anything, its shown how fragile it all is.

This isnt confined to just the food and beverage industry either,
This is pretty much the retail apocalypse V2.
My sister works at Maceys, which was already hanging by a thread, they layed off over 120k workers.

I wouldnt be surprised at all if they end up going under because of this.

They are talking about how even when restaurants are allowed to open up there will be restrictions on how many people are allowed to dine in at a time.

A huge part of our income is based on tips, even after this is all over, there will be less jobs and our already crappy pay will be even crappier.

Im at the point where I feel forced into a career transition.

Maybe its not a bad thing.

Have fun opening back up when every skilled cook now does HVAC, construction or drives truck.


--------------------
"Nothing is more dangerous to your creativity than comfort and familiarity"

"Nihilism is the most basic truth in existence,
the only consistency throughout the world, and the universe is
chaos and decay"
"Logic leads to nihilism"



Edited by Buckomcdoogle (04/21/20 10:51 PM)


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